• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.66 no.2
• /
• pp.35-52
• /
• 2024

This study conducted an assessment of potential impacts on the drought in agricultural reservoirs using the recently proposed SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on agricultural water resources and infrastructure vulnerability within Gyeongsangnam-do, focusing on 15 agricultural reservoirs. The assessment was based on the KRC (Korea Rural Community Corporation) 1^st vulnerability assessment methodology using RCP scenarios for 2021. However, there are limitations due to the necessity for climate impact assessments based on the latest climate information and the uncertainties associated with using a single scenario from national standard scenarios. Therefore, we applied the 13 GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs based on the newly introduced SSP scenarios. Furthermore, due to difficulties in data acquisiton, we reassessed potential impacts by redistributing weights for proxy variables. As a main result, with lower future potential impacts observed in areas with higher precipitation along the southern coast. Overall, the potential impacts increased for all reservoirs as we moved into the future, maintaining their relative rankings, yet showing no significant variability in the far future. Although the overall pattern of potential impacts aligns with previous evaluations, reevaluation under similar conditions with different spatial resolutions emphasizes the critical role of meteorological data spatial resolution in assessments. The results of this study are expected to improve the credibility and accuracy formulation of vulnerability employing more scientific predictions.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
• /
• v.14 no.3
• /
• pp.188-202
• /
• 2011

Due to emissions of greenhouse gases caused by increased use of fossil fuels, the climate change has been detected and this phenomenon would affect even larger changes in temperature and precipitation of South Korea. Especially, the increase of temperature by climate change can affect the amount and pattern of snowfall. Accordingly, we tried to predict future snowfall and the snowfall pattern changes by using the downscaled GCM (general circulation model) scenarios. Causes of snow varies greatly, but the information provided by GCM are maximum / minimum temperature, rainfall, solar radiation. In this study, the possibility of snow was focused on correlation between minimum temperatures and future precipitation. First, we collected the newest fresh snow depth offered by KMA (Korea meteorological administration), then we estimate the temperature of snow falling conditions. These estimated temperature conditions were distributed spatially and regionally by IDW (Inverse Distance Weight) interpolation. Finally, the distributed temperature conditions (or boundaries) were applied to GCM, and the future snowfall was predicted. The results showed a wide range of variation for each scenario. Our models predict that snowfall will decrease in the study region. This may be caused by global warming. Temperature rise caused by global warming highlights the effectiveness of these mechanisms that concerned with the temporal and spatial changes in snow, and would affect the spring water resources.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2006.11b
• /
• pp.130-137
• /
• 2006

In these days abnormal climate occurs frequently because of global warming and earthshock. So it is necessary to prepare for the abnormal conditions like gale, rainfall, heavy snow and high temperature. Fortunately, Korea high speed rail(KTX) have a safety climate detection system for the abnormal weather by using CTC. So the safety is guaranteed in most aspect. But in convention line there isn't any alarm system for the abnormal condition and the train runs until the railroad loss occurred. So convention line need additional regulation same as KTX for the abnormal climate and in the near future passenger safety must be protected by new alarm system.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
• /
• v.100 no.2
• /
• pp.256-265
• /
• 2011

This study was aiming at assessing the vulnerability of forest distribution by the A2 and B1 climate change scenarios of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The vulnerability of forest distribution was assessed using its sensitivity and adaptation to climate change with the help of the simulations of Korean-specific forest distribution model, so-called the Thermal Analogy Group (TAG), and the Plant Functional Type (PFT) defined in the HyTAG (Hydrological and Thermal Analogy Groups) model. As a result, the vulnerable area occupied 30.78% and 2.81% of Korea in A2 and B1 scenario, respectively. When it comes to the administrative districts, Pusan in A2 and Daegu in B1 appeared the most vulnerable area. This study would be employed into preparation of adaptative measures for forest in future in terms of using climate change scenarios reflecting different future development conditions.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.9 no.4
• /
• pp.423-433
• /
• 2018

Particulate matter air pollution is a serious problem affecting human health and visibility. The variations in $PM_{10}$ concentrations are influenced by not only local emission sources, but also atmospheric circulation conditions. In this study, we investigate the temporal features of $PM_{10}$ concentrations in South Korea and the atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$ during winter (December-January-February) 2001-2016. Based on those analyses, a Korea Particulate matter Index (KPI) is developed to represent the large-scale atmospheric pattern associated with high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$. The atmospheric patterns are characterized by persistent high-pressure anomalies, weakened lower-level north-westerly anomalies, and northward shift of the upper-level meridional wind anomalies near the Korean Peninsula. To evaluate the change in occurrence of high concentration episodes of $PM_{10}$ under a possible future warmer climate, we apply KPI analysis to CMIP5 climate simulations. Here, historical and two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) are used. It is found that the occurrence of atmospheric conditions favorable for high $PM_{10}$ concentration episodes tends to increase over South Korea in response to climate change. This suggests that large-scale atmospheric circulation changes under future warmer climate can contribute to increasing high $PM_{10}$ concentration episodes in South Korea.

• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
• /
• v.17 no.2
• /
• pp.161-161
• /
• 2003

During the last century, most scientific questions related to climate change were focused on the evidence of anthropogenic global warming (IPCC, 2001). There are robust evidences of warming and also human-induced climate change. We now understand the global, mean change a little bit better; however, the uncertainties for regional climate change still remains large. The purpose of this study is to understand the past climate change over Korea based on the observational data and to project future regional climate change over East Asia using ECHAM4/HOPE model and MM5 for downscaling. There are significant evidences on regional climate change in Korea, from several variables. The mean annual temperature over Korea has increased about 1.5∼$1.7^{\circ}C$ during the 20th century, including urbanization effect in large cities which can account for 20-30% of warming in the second half of the 20th century. Cold extreme temperature events occurred less frequently especially in the late 20th century, while hot extreme temperature events were more common than earlier in the century. The seasonal and annual precipitation was analyzed to examine long-term trend on precipitation intensity and extreme events. The number of rainy days shows a significant negative trend, which is more evident in summer and fall. Annual precipitation amount tends to increase slightly during the same period. This suggests an increase of precipitation intensity in this area. These changes may influence on growing seasons, floods and droughts, diseases and insects, marketing of seasonal products, energy consumption, and socio-economic sectors. The Korean Peninsular is located at the eastern coast of the largest continent on the earth withmeso-scale mountainous complex topography and itspopulation density is very high. And most people want to hear what will happen in their back yards. It is necessary to produce climate change scenario to fit forhigh-resolution (in meteorological sense, but low-resolution in socio-economic sense) impact assessment. We produced one hundred-year, high-resolution (∼27 km), regional climate change scenario with MM5 and recognized some obstacles to be used in application. The boundary conditions were provided from the 240-year simulation using the ECHAM4/HOPE-G model with SRES A2 scenario. Both observation and simulation data will compose past and future regional climate change scenario over Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2011.05a
• /
• pp.252-252
• /
• 2011

Rainfall-runoff models are calibrated and validated by using a same data set such as observations. The past climate change effects the present rainfall pattern and also will effect on the future. To predict rainfall-runoff more preciously we have to consider the climate change pattern in the past, present and the future time. Thus, in this study, the climate change represents changes in mean precipitation and standard deviation in different patterns. In some river basins, there is no enough length of data for the analysis. Therefore, we have to generate the synthetic data using proper distribution for calculation of precipitation based on the observed data. In this study, Kajiyama model is used to analyze the runoff in the dry and the wet period, separately. Mean and standard deviation are used for generating precipitation from the gamma distribution. Twenty hypothetical scenarios are considered to show the climate change conditions. The mean precipitation are changed by -20%, -10%, 0%, +10% and +20% for the data generation with keeping the standard deviation constant in the wet and the dry period respectively. Similarly, the standard deviations of precipitation are changed by -20%, -10%, 0%, +10% and +20% keeping the mean value of precipitation constant for the wet and the dry period sequentially. In the wet period, when the standard deviation value varies then the mean NSE ratio is more fluctuate rather than the dry period. On the other hand, the mean NSE ratio in some extent is more fluctuate in the wet period and sometimes in the dry period, if the mean value of precipitation varies while keeping the standard deviation constant.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
• /
• v.8 no.4
• /
• pp.377-384
• /
• 2017

Amid growing concerns about energy security, energy prices, economic competitiveness, and climate change, district heating (DH) system has been recognized for its significant benefits and the part it can play in efficiently meeting society's growing energy demands while reducing environmental impacts. Policy makers often need to quantify the fuel and carbon dioxide ($CO_2$) emissions savings of DH system compared to conventional individual heating (IH) system in order to estimate its actual emissions reductions. The objective of this paper is to calculate energy efficiency and $CO_2$ emissions saving, and to propose the future direction for DH system in Korea. DH system achieved total system efficiencies of 67.9% compared to 54.1% for IH system in 2015. DH system reduced $CO_2$ emissions by $381,311ton-CO_2$ (4.1%) compared to IH system. The results suggest that DH system is more preferred than IH system using natural gas. In Korea, the aim is to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and to use energy more efficiently. DH system have significant potential with regard to achieving this aim, because DH system are already integrated with power generation in the electricity since combined heating and power (CHP) are used for heat supply. Although the future conditions for DH may look promising, the current DH system in Korea must be enhanced in order to handle future competition. Thus, the next DH system must be integrated with multiple renewable energy and waste heat energy sources.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2022.05a
• /
• pp.305-305
• /
• 2022

A better approach for assessing meteorological drought occurrences is increasingly important in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change, as well as strategies for developing early warning systems. The present study defines meteorological droughts as a period with an abnormal precipitation deficit based on monthly precipitation data of 18 gauging stations for the Han River watershed in the past (1974-2015). This study utilizes a Bayesian parameter estimation approach to analyze the effects of climate change on future drought (2025-2065) in the Han River Basin using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) with four bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)2-4.5 scenario. Given that drought is defined by several dependent variables, the evaluation of this phenomenon should be based on multivariate analysis. Two main characteristics of drought (severity and duration) were extracted from precipitation anomalies in the past and near-future periods using the copula function. Three parameters of the Archimedean family copulas, Frank, Clayton, and Gumbel copula, were selected to fit with drought severity and duration. The results reveal that the lower parts and middle of the Han River basin have faced severe drought conditions in the near future. Also, the bivariate analysis using copula showed that, according to both indicators, the study area would experience droughts with greater severity and duration in the future as compared with the historical period.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.55 no.3
• /
• pp.13-24
• /
• 2013

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.