• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future climate conditions

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Prediction of Distribution Changes of Carpinus laxiflora and C. tschonoskii Based on Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxEnt Model (MaxEnt 모델링을 이용한 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 서어나무 (Carpinus laxiflora)와 개서어나무 (C. tschonoskii)의 분포변화 예측)

  • Lee, Min-Ki;Chun, Jung-Hwa;Lee, Chang-Bae
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.55-67
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    • 2021
  • Hornbeams (Carpinus spp.), which are widely distributed in South Korea, are recognized as one of the most abundant species at climax stage in the temperate forests. Although the distribution and vegetation structure of the C. laxiflora community have been reported, little ecological information of C. tschonoskii is available. Little effort was made to examine the distribution shift of these species under the future climate conditions. This study was conducted to predict potential shifts in the distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii in 2050s and 2090s under the two sets of climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the spatial distribution of two species using the occurrence data derived from the 6th National Forest Inventory data as well as climate and topography data. It was found that the main factors for the distribution of C. laxiflora were elevation, temperature seasonality, and mean annual precipitation. The distribution of C. tschonoskii, was influenced by temperature seasonality, mean annual precipitation, and mean diurnal rang. It was projected that the total habitat area of the C. laxiflora could increase by 1.05% and 1.11% under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. It was also predicted that the distributional area of C. tschonoskii could expand under the future climate conditions. These results highlighted that the climate change would have considerable impact on the spatial distribution of C. laxiflora and C. tschonoskii. These also suggested that ecological information derived from climate change impact assessment study can be used to develop proper forest management practices in response to climate change.

A study of bioindicator selection for long-term ecological monitoring

  • Han, Yong-Gu;Kwon, Ohseok;Cho, Youngho
    • Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.119-122
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    • 2015
  • It is very useful and important to see the status and change of necessary parts in a short period through selecting and observing the bioindicator continually to forecast and prepare the future. Especially, living things are so closely related to the environment that the indicator between the environment and living things shows close interrelationship. Also, the indicator related to environment provides information about representative or decisive environmental phenomenon and is used to simplify complicated facts. Considering wide range of background and application including various indicators such as the change-, destruction-, pollution-, and restoration of habitats, climate change, and species diversity, the closest category includes "environmental indicator," "ecological indicator," and "biodiversity indicator." The selection and use of bioindicator is complicated and difficult. The necessary conditions for the indicator selection are flexible and greatly depend on the goals of investigation such as the indicator for biological diversity investigation of specific area, the indicator for habitat destruction, the indicator for climate change, and the indicator for polluted area. It should meet many various conditions to select a good indicator. In this study, eleven selection standards are established based on domestic and overseas studies on bioindicator selection: species with clear classification and ecology, species distributed in geographically widespread area, species that show clear habitat characteristics, species that can provide early warning for a change, species that are easy and economically benefited for the investigation, species that have many independent individual groups and that is not greatly affected by the size of individual groups, species that is thought to represent the response of other species, species that represent the ecology change caused by the pressure of human influence, species for which researches on climate change have been done, species that is easy to observe, appears for a long time and forms a group with many individuals, and species that are important socially, economically, and culturally.

Performance Based Evaluation of Concrete Material Properties from Climate Change Effect on Temperature and Humidity Curing Conditions (기후변화의 온도와 습도 양생조건에 따른 콘크리트 재료특성의 성능중심평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Kyun;Shin, Jae-Ho;Shin, Dong-Woo;Shim, Hyun-Bo;Kim, Jang-Ho Jay
    • Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.114-122
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    • 2014
  • Currently, global warming has become a serious problem arising from the usage of fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum. Moreover, due to the global warming, heat wave, heavy snow, heavy rain, super typhoon are frequently occurring all over the world. Due to these serious natural disasters, concrete structures and infrastructures are seriously damaged or collapsed. In order to handle these problems, climate change oriented construction technology and codes are necessary at this time. Therefore, in this study, the validity of the present concrete mixture proportions are evaluated considering temperature and humidity change. The specimens cured at various temperature and humidity conditions were tested to obtain their compressive and split tensile strengths at various curing ages. Moreover, performance based evaluation (PBE) method was used to analyze the satisfaction percentage of the concrete cured at various condition. From the probabilistic method of performance evaluation of concrete performance, feasibility and usability can be determined for future concrete mix design.

Comparison a Forest Fire Spread variation according to weather condition change (기후조건 변화에 따른 산불확산 변화 비교)

  • Lee, Si-Young;Park, Houng-Sek
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institute of Fire Science and Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.490-494
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    • 2008
  • We simulated a forest fire which was occurred in Yangyang area on 2005 and compared a results between two different weather conditions(real weather condition and mean weather condition since 1968) using FARSITE, which is a forest fire spread simulator for preventing and predicting fire in USDA. And, we researched a problem in the transition for introducing, so we serve the basic method for prevention and attacking fire. In the result, severe weather condition on 2005 effected a forest fire behavior. The rate of spread under real weather condition was about 4 times faster than mean weather condition. Damaged area was about 10 time than mean weather condition. Therefore, Climate change will make a more sever fire season. As we will encounter to need for accurate prediction in near future, it will be necessary to predict a forest fire linked with future wether and fuel condition.

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Climate Change in Corn Fields of the Coastal Region of Ecuador

  • Borja, Nicolas;Cho, Jaepil;Choi, KyungSook
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.271-271
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    • 2015
  • The Ecuadorian coast has two different climate regions. One is humid region where the annual rainfall is above 2000 mm and rain falls in almost all months of the year, and the other is dry region where the annual rainfall can fall below 50 mm and rainfall can be very seasonal. The agriculture is frequently limited by the seasons during the year and the availability of rainfall amounts. The corn fields in Ecuador are cultivated during the rainy season, due to this reason. The weather conditions for optimum development of corn growth require a monthly average rainfall of 120 mm to 140 mm and a temperature range of $22^{\circ}C{\sim}32^{\circ}C$ for the dry region, and a monthly average rainfall of 200 mm to 400 mm and a temperature range of $25^{\circ}C{\sim}30^{\circ}C$ for the humid area. The objective of this study is to predict how the weather conditions are going to change in corn fields of the coastal region of Ecuador in the future decades. For this purpose, this study selected six General Circulation Models (GCM) including BCC-CSM1-1, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MRIC-CGC3 with different climate scenarios of the RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5, and applied for the period from 2011 to 2100. The climate variables information was obtained from the INAMHI (National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology) in Ecuador for the a base line period from 1986 to 2012. The results indicates that two regions would experience significant changes in rainfall and temperature compared to the historical data. In the case of temperature, an increment of $1^{\circ}C{\sim}1.2^{\circ}C$ in 2025s, $1.6^{\circ}C{\sim}2.2^{\circ}C$ in 2055s, $2.1^{\circ}C{\sim}3.5^{\circ}C$ in 2085s were obtained from the dry region while less increment were shown from the humid region with having an increment of $1^{\circ}C$ in 2025s, $1.4^{\circ}C{\sim}1.8^{\circ}C$ in 2055s, $1.9^{\circ}C{\sim}3.2^{\circ}C$ in 2085s. Significant changes in rainfall are also projected. The rainfall projections showed an increment of 8%~11% in 2025s, 21%~33% in 2055s, and 34%~70% in 2085s for the dry region, and an increment of 2%~10%, 14%~30% and 23%~57% in 2025s, 2055s and 2085s decade respectively for humid region.

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Production and Spatiotemporal Analysis of High-Resolution Temperature-Humidity Index and Heat Stress Days Distribution (고해상도 온습도지수 및 고온 스트레스 일수 분포도의 제작과 이를 활용한 시공간적 변화 분석)

  • Dae Gyoon Kang;Dae-Jun Kim;Jin-Hee Kim;Eun-Jeong Yun;Eun-Hye Ban;Yong Seok Kim;Sera Jo
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.446-454
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    • 2023
  • The impact of climate change on agriculture is substantial, especially as global warming is projected to lead to varying temperature and humidity patterns in the future. These changes pose a higher risk for both crops and livestock, exposing them to environmental stressors under altered climatic conditions. Specifically, as temperatures are expected to rise, the risk of heat stress is assessable through the Temperature-Humidity Index (THI), derived from temperature and relative humidity data. This study involved the comparison of THI collected from 10 Korea Meteorological Administration ASOS stations spanning a 60-year period from 1961 to 2020. Moreover, high-resolution temperature and humidity distribution data from 1981 to 2020 were employed to generate high-resolution TH I distributions, analyzing temporal changes. Additionally, the number of days characterized by heat stress, derived from TH I, was compared over different time periods. Generally, TH I showed an upward trend over the past, albeit with varying rates across different locations. As TH I increased, the frequency of heat stress days also rose, indicating potential future cost increases in the livestock industry due to heat-related challenges. The findings emphasize the feasibility of evaluating heat stress risk in livestock using THI and underscore the need for research analyzing THI under future climate change scenarios.

Output Control Simulation of Variable Speed Wind Power System using Real Data (실제 데이터를 이용한 가변속 풍력발전시스템의 출력제어 시뮬레이션)

  • Han, Sang-Geun;Park, Min-Won;Yu, In-Keun
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.07b
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    • pp.1342-1344
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    • 2002
  • Wind is a significant and valuable renewable energy resource. It is safe and abundant and can make an important contribution to future clean, sustainable and diversified electricity supplies. Unlike other sources of energy, wind does not pollute the atmosphere nor create any hazardous waste. In some countries wind energy is already competitive with fossil and nuclear power even without accounting for the environmental benefits of wind power. The cost of electricity from conventional power stations does not usually take full account of its environmental impact (acid rain, oil slick clean up, the effects of climate change, etc). In this paper, a transient phenomenon simulation method for Wind Power Generation System(WPGS) under real weather conditions has been proposed. The simulation method is expected to be able to analyze easily under various conditions with considering the sort of wind turbine, the capacity of system and the converter system. Wind turbine connected to the synchronous generator and power converter was simulated.

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POM/MICOM Inter-Comparison in Modeling the East Sea Circulation

  • Kim, Kuk-Jin;Seung, Young-Ho;Suk, Moon-Sik
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.161-172
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    • 2001
  • A model-to-model comparison is attempted between Princeton Ocean Model (POM) and Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model (MICOM) as a first step to extend our knowledge of models' performances in studying the East Sea circulation. The two models have fundamentally different numerical schemes and boundary conditions imposed on these models are not exactly the same each other. This study indicates that MICOM has a critical weak point in that it does not reproduce the shallow surface currents properly while it handles the thermohaline processes and associated movements of intermediate and deep waters efficiently. It is suggested that the mixed layer scheme needs to be modified so that it can match with inflow boundary conditions in order to reproduce the surface currents properly in MICOM. POM reproduces the surface current pattern better than MICOM, although the surface currents in POM appear to undergo the unrealistic seasonal variation and have exaggeratedly large vertical scale. These defects seem to arise during the process of adapting POM to the East Sea, and removing these defects is left as a future task.

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What Can We Do for Our Water Problem? (기획특집 - 우리의 물 문제 어떻게 해결할 것인가?)

  • Lee, Won-Sik
    • Journal of the Korean Professional Engineers Association
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    • v.42 no.3
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    • pp.22-26
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    • 2009
  • As Korea's water resources are dominated by intense summer rainfall and steep mountainous territory, it is inevitable for most of the rainfall in Korea to flow into sea immediately and directly. It cannot help having severe conditions which droughts and floods occur repeatedly due to the seasonal and geological conditions in Korea. Those kinds of disasters will be expected more frequently and seriously in the future because of the unexpected climate changes in the world. Therefore, Korean government will plan to develop small and medium-size dams environmentally friendly, multi-regional water supply system continuously and alternative water resources such as river bank filtrations, rainwater storages and underground dams, in order to prevent floods as well as to secure stable water supply.

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Characteristics of Air Stagnation over the Korean Peninsula and Projection Using Regional Climate Model of HadGEM3-RA (한반도 대기정체의 특성 및 지역기후모델 HadGEM3-RA를 이용한 미래 전망)

  • Kim, Do-Hyun;Kim, Jin-Uk;Kim, Tae-Jun;Byon, Jae-Young;Kim, Jin-Won;Kwon, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Yeon-Hee
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.377-390
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    • 2020
  • Not only emissions, but also atmospheric circulation is a key factor that affects local particulate matters (PM) concentrations in Korea through ventilation effects and transboundary transports. As part of the atmospheric circulation, air stagnation especially adversely affects local air quality due to weak ventilation. This study investigates the large-scale circulation related to air stagnation over Korea during winter and projects the climate change impacts on atmospheric patterns, using observed PM data, reanalysis and regional climate projections from HadGEM3-RA with Modified Korea Particulate matter Index. Results show that the stagnation affects the PM concentration, accompanied by pressure ridge at upper troposphere and weaken zonal pressure gradient at lower troposphere. Downscaling using HadGEM3-RA is found to yield Added-Value in the simulated low tropospheric winds. For projection of future stagnation, SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6 (high and low emission) scenarios are used here. It has been found that the stagnation condition occurs more frequently by 11% under SSP5-8.5 and by 5% under SSP1-2.6 than in present-day climate and is most affected by changes in surface wind speed. The increase in the stagnation conditions is related to anticyclonic circulation anomaly at upper troposphere and weaken meridional pressure gradient at lower troposphere. Considering that the present East Asian winter monsoon is mainly affected by change in zonal pressure gradient, it is worth paying attention to this change in the meridional gradient. Our results suggest that future warming condition increase the frequency of air stagnation over Korea during winter with response of atmospheric circulation and its nonlinearity.