• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.39 no.1
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• pp.33-44
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• 2019

Due to the recent climate change realization (timing, rainfall pattern changes), the flow regime is changing according to the watershed. The long-term change of flow regime is causing a significant change in structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. However, there is no analysis from the viewpoint of the aquatic ecosystem including flow rate alteration and ecological characteristics as well as the climate change connection in Korea yet. Therefore, We quantitatively assessed the impact of present-future flow regime alteration due to climate change on the Pseudopungtungia nigra habitat in the Mankyung river and floodplain area. As a result, it was confirmed that extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought are intensified in the future than the present. Especially, the changes of flow regime characteristics were clarified by comparing and analyzing the magnitude, frequency, duration, rate of change, and by linking flow regime characteristics with physical habitat analysis, it could be suggested that climate change would significantly increase the risk of future ecological changes.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.141-158
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• 2013

In this study, the projection of future heating and cooling degree days (HDDs and CDDs) has been conducted over South Korea for the period 1996~2005 with 2046~2055 and 2091~2100, using CCSM3 and MM5 simulations driven by the six IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2). Annual mean surface air temperature increases by $1.2{\sim}3.4^{\circ}C$ at the end of the 21st century comparing to the present-day (1996~2005) in South Korea. HDDs decrease by 8~25% and CDDs increase up to 242~1,448% with corresponding changes in temperature. These increases and decreases also change the duration of HDDs and CDDs. HDDs duration decreases by 1 month, while the expansion of CDDs duration is much longer than 2 months. Thus, projected future HDDs and CDDs changes appear that cooling energy demand in summer season would increase and heating energy demand in winter would decrease in the future. Especially, these remarkable changes would be obvious at high mountain area, Gangwon-do and at south area, Jeju island. In the sense of future energy supply and policy, electrical energy for cooling in summer could be getting much more its importance rather than fossil energy used for heating in winter.

• Atmosphere
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.483-492
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• 2007

The objective of this study is to describe scientific progresses in understanding of climate change in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, contributed by Working group I. Since 1988, IPCC's four assessment reports showed significant improvements in understanding of observed climate change, drivers of climate change, detection and attribution of climate change, climate models, and future projection. The results are based on large amounts of observation data, sophisticated analyses of data, improvements of climate models and the simulations. While the First Assessment Report (FAR) in 1990 reported that a detectable anthropogenic influence on climate has little observational evidence, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) reported that warming of the climate system is unequivocal and is very likely due to human influences. It is also noted that anthropogenic warming and sea level rise would continue for centuries due to the time scales associated with climate processes and feedbacks, even if greenhouse gas were to be stabilized.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.223-234
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• 2018

Estimation of future land cover based on climate change scenarios is an important factor in climate change impact assessment and adaptation policy. This study estimated future land cover considering Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) using Scenario Generators. Based on the storylines of SSP1-3, future population and estimated urban area were adopted for the transition matrix, which contains land cover change trends of each land cover class. In addition, limits of land cover change and proximity were applied as spatial data. According to the estimated land cover maps from SSP1-3 in 2030, 2050, and 2100, respectively, urban areas near a road were expanded, but agricultural areas and forests were gradually decreased. More drastic urban expansion was seen in SSP3 compared to SSP1 and SSP2. These trends are similar with previous research with regard to storyline, but the spatial results were different. Future land cover can be easily adjusted based on this approach, if econometric forecasts for each land cover class added. However, this requires determination of econometric forecasts for each land cover class.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.130-142
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• 2021

Background: Climate change is occurring rapidly around the world, and is predicted to have a large impact on biodiversity. Various studies have shown that climate change can alter the geographical distribution of wild bees. As climate change affects the species distribution and causes range shift, the degree of range shift and the quality of the habitats are becoming more important for securing the species diversity. In addition, those pollinator insects are contributing not only to shaping the natural ecosystem but also to increased crop production. The distributional and habitat quality changes of wild bees are of utmost importance in the climate change era. This study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on distributional and habitat quality changes of five wild bees in northwestern regions of Iran under two representative concentration pathway scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We used species distribution models to predict the potential range shift of these species in the year 2070. Result: The effects of climate change on different species are different, and the increase in temperature mainly expands the distribution ranges of wild bees, except for one species that is estimated to have a reduced potential range. Therefore, the increase in temperature would force wild bees to shift to higher latitudes. There was also significant uncertainty in the use of different models and the number of environmental layers employed in the modeling of habitat suitability. Conclusion: The increase in temperature caused the expansion of species distribution and wider areas would be available to the studied species in the future. However, not all of this possible range may include high-quality habitats, and wild bees may limit their niche to suitable habitats. On the other hand, the movement of species to higher latitudes will cause a mismatch between farms and suitable areas for wild bees, and as a result, farmers will face a shortage of pollination from wild bees. We suggest that farmers in these areas be aware of the effects of climate change on agricultural production and consider the use of managed bees in the future.

• Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.115-123
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• 2013

Owing to increase of meteorological disasters by climate change, it needs to study of climate change which will be able to deal with adaption for basic local authorities. A case study area of Yesan have been impacted by land-use which alter natural environment demage. It has led to micro-climate change impacts in rural area, Yesan. In order to adapt to the effects, this paper estimated temperature change in productivity of fruits and conducted decline of nonpoint pollutant loadings. As the results of temperature change of effecting on growth of apple, since a rise in temperature have not increased high, therefore the apple productivity could not be influence until 2030s. While the apple productivity could be declined 14.8% in 2060s. In addition, it supposes that the productivity would be decreased 44.5% in 2090s. Furthermore, it showed that the apple maturity has become worse, because length of high temperature has dramatic increased 54.2% in 2030s, 103.2% in 2060s and 154.0% in 2060s beside 2000, respectively, compared with 2000. As results of analysing between the future rainfall characteristics and nonpoint pollutant loadings, the subject of reduction of nonpoint pollutant was efficiency when it implemented around Oga-myeon or Deoksan-myeon Dun-ri. This study classified the region more detail each Eup and Myeon after that it analysed the rural region impacts of climate change for basic local authorities. Hence, this study is able to predict adaptation of rural region impacts of climate change. Due to increase of green house gases emission, meteorological disasters could often occur in the future. Therefore, it needs follow-up studies that assess climate change of effecting on rural region.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.515-522
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• 2014

In this study it is attempted to estimate the possible change in energy use for residential and commercial sector in Korea under a future climate change senario. Based on the national energy use and observed temperature data during the period 1991~2010, the optimal base temperature for determining heating and cooling degree days (HDD and CDD) is calculated. Then, net changes in fossil fuel and electricity uses that are statistically linked with a temperature variation are quantified through regression analyses of HDD and CDD against the energy use. Finally, the future projection of energy use is estimated by applying the regression model and future temperature projections by the CMIP5 results under the RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate that, overall, the net annual energy use will decrease mostly due to a large decrease in the fossil fuel use for heating. However, a clear seasonal contrast in energy use is anticipated in the electricity use; there will be an increase in a warm-season demand for cooling but a decrease in a cold-season demand for heating.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.133-142
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• 2018

Climate change will affect not only the crop productivity but also the pattern of rice disease epidemics in Korea. Impact assessments for the climate change are conducted using various climate change scenarios from many global climate models (GCM), such as a scenario from a best GCM or scenarios from multiple GCMs, or a combination of both. Here, we evaluated the feasibility of using a climate change scenario from the best GCM for the impact assessment on the potential epidemics of a rice leaf blast disease in Korea, in comparison to a multi?model ensemble (MME) scenario from multiple GCMs. For this, this study involves analyses of disease simulation using an epidemiological model, EPIRICE?LB, which was validated for Korean rice paddy fields. We then assessed likely changes in disease epidemics using the best GCM selected for individual agro?climatic zones and MME scenarios constructed by running 11 GCMs. As a result, the simulated incidence of leaf blast epidemics gradually decreased over the future periods both from the best GCM and MME. The results from this study emphasized that the best GCM selection approach resulted in comparable performance to the MME approach for the climate change impact assessment on rice leaf blast epidemic in Korea.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.269-281
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• 2011

In this review, numerical model results from global and regional climate models are introduced to regional detailed climate changes over East Asia and Korea. In particular, regional climate change scenarios in this region, which are created by several research groups in Korea based on Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC 4th assessment report are introduced and characteristics of the scenarios are investigated. Despite slight differences in intensity, all scenarios reveal prominent warming over the Korean peninsula in future climate. Changes in precipitation amount vary with given scenarios and periods, but the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation generally tend to increase in all scenarios. South Korea except for mountainous regions is expected to change into subtropical climate in future, which accompanies distinct changes in ecosystems and seasons.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.101 no.3
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• pp.509-516
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• 2012

In this research, it was intended to examine the vulnerability of Pinus rigida to climate changes, a major planting species in Korea. For this purpose, the distribution of Pinus rigida and its changes caused by climate changes were estimated based on the 'A1B' climate change scenario suggested by IPCC. Current distribution of Pinus rigida was analyzed by using the $4^{th}$Forest Type Map and its potential distribution in the recent year (2000), the near future (2050) and the further future (2100) were estimated by analyzing the optimized ranges of three climate indices - warmth index(WI), minimum temperature index of the coldest month (MTCI) and precipitation effectiveness index(PEI). The results showed that the estimated potential distribution of Pinus rigida declines to 56% in the near future(2050) and 15% in the further future (2100). This significant decline was found in most provinces in Korea. However, in Kangwon province where the average elevation is higher than other provinces, the area of potential distribution of Pinus rigida increases in the near future and the further future. Also the result indicated that the potential distribution of Pinus rigida migrates to higher elevation. The potential distributions estimated in this research have relatively high accuracy with consideration of classification accuracy (44.75%) and prediction probability (62.56%).