• 대한설비공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한설비공학회 2006년도 하계학술발표대회 논문집
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• pp.789-794
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• 2006

The potential impacts of climate change on heating and cooling energy demand were investigated by means of transient building energy simulations and hourly weather data scenarios for Inchon. Future trends for the 21 st century was assessed based oil climate change scenarios with 7 global climate models(GCMs), We constructed hourly weather data from monthly temperatures and total incident solar radiation ($W/m^2$) and then simulated heating and cooling load by Trnsys 16 for Inchon. For 2004-2080, the selected scenarios made by IPCC foresaw a $3.7-5.8^{\circ}C$rise in mean annual air temperature. In 2004-2080, the annual cooling load for a apartment with internal heat gains increased by 75-165% while the heating load fell by 52-71%. Our analysis showed widely varying shifts in future energy demand depending on the season. Heating costs will significantly decrease whereas more expensive electrical energy will be needed of air conditioning during the summer.

• Architectural research
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.13-20
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• 2016

Smart Home has achieved remarkable developments over the past few decades. In the ICT(Information and Communications Technology) field, 'app ecosystem'-a collection of multiple devices such as mobile phones and tablets, software (operating system and development tools), companies (manufacturers, carriers, app-stores, etc.) and the process through which data is transferred/shared by a user from one device to another device or by the device itself-has come into wide use since the advent of the smart phone. Due to the synergy effect of the 'app ecosystem', it has been applied to various fields such as televisions and automobile industries. As a result, both the Smart TV and connected vehicle have developed their own ecosystem. Although much research has been conducted on these two ecosystems, there is a lack of research regarding 'App Ecosystem based Smart Home' (AESH). This research focuses on the building scenarios based on 'Tracking, Analyzing, Imaging, Deciding, and Acting (T.A.I.D.A), a future prediction method process. Rather than taking an approach from the perspective of providing and applying advanced technology for research on building future scenarios, this paper focuses on research from the perspective of architectural planning. As a result, two future scenarios of AESH are suggested.

• 한국HCI학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국HCI학회 2006년도 학술대회 1부
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• pp.741-746
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• 2006

Future space is currently getting a great deal of attention to apply ubiquitous computing technology. At the same time, various ubiquitous technology-based products are being developed with service scenarios in the views of diverse user groups predicted. Since these service models and scenarios need to be tested to verify effectiveness, it requires researchers to predict spatial shapes and service scenarios for future domestic environment that fulfills diverse future spatial requirements including ecological and user-oriented spaces, extended amenity getting maximum benefits from technology, etc. To support these developments, the need to make a physical test-bed, a real building model, is essential. However building a physical test-bed generally is economically expensive and even if the test-bed could be settled, it must be carefully designed before it is built In this paper, we suggest a virtual smart test-bed, called "V-PlaceLab", using virtual reality techniques. This system allows not only to inspect a scenario with the aid of computer simulation on a virtual environment, but also to design a virtual test-bed mentioned above.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.83-91
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• 2010

Generally, the GCM (General Circulation Model) data by IPCC climate change scenarios are used for future weather prediction. IPCC GCM models predict well for the continental scale, but is not good for the regional scale. This paper tried to generate future temperature and precipitation of 8 scattered meteorological stations in South Korea by using the MIROC3.2 hires GCM data and applying LARS-WG downscaling method. The MIROC3.2 A1B scenario data were adopted because it has the similar pattern comparing with the observed data (1977-2006) among the scenarios. The results showed that both the future precipitation and temperature increased. The 2080s annual temperature increased $3.8{\sim}5.0^{\circ}C$. Especially the future temperature increased up to $4.5{\sim}7.8^{\circ}C$ in winter period (December-February). The future annual precipitation of 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s increased 17.5 %, 27.5 %, and 39.0 % respectively. From the trend analysis for the future projected results, the above middle region of South Korea showed a statistical significance for winter precipitation and south region for summer rainfall.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제2권4호
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• pp.269-281
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• 2011

전구 및 지역 기후 모델 결과를 분석하여 동아시아와 한반도 지역에 대해 상세한 지역기후의 변화를 전망한 연구를 소개하였다. 특히 IPCC 4차 평가 보고서의 배출 시나리오를 기반으로 국내 연구그룹이 산출한 한반도 지역기후 변화 전망을 소개하고 그 특성을 파악하였다. 배출 시나리오에 따라 강도의 차이가 다소 있지만 미래 한반도의 온난화 경향은 명확한 것으로 나타났다. 강수량의 경우 배출 시나리오와 시기에 따라 다소 상이한 변화 경향을 보이지만, 대부분의 연구에서 공통적으로 미래 집중호우의 발생 빈도와 강도가 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 이와 같은 지역기후 변화로 인하여 고지대를 제외한 대부분의 남한지역이 아열대 기후구로 점차 변해갈 것으로 전망되며, 이로 인한 생태계와 계절의 변화가 야기될 것으로 예상된다.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제49권6호
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• pp.833-848
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• 2014

풍력발전단지의 신규 개발과 안정적인 운영 계획 수립을 위해 기후변화에 따른 미래 풍력에너지의 변동성 정보를 파악하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구는 IPCC 5차 보고서에서 새롭게 도입된 대표농도경로(Representative Concentration Pathway)를 적용한 기후변화 시나리오 자료를 활용하여 2006년부터 2040년까지의 가까운 미래에 대한 풍력에너지(풍력에너지밀도와 잠재전력생산량)의 시 공간적 변동성을 분석하고자 한다. 사용된 기후변화 시나리오는 지역기후모델 HadGEM3-RA를 이용해 생산된 RCP2.6과 8.5자료이다. 시나리오 생산의 기반이 된 지역기후모델을 과거기간에 대하여 ECMWF의 ERA-interim 재분석자료와 비교분석한 결과, 지역 기후모델은 풍력에너지를 육지에서는 과소, 바다에서는 과대 모의하였다. 그리고 변동성 역시 육지에서 과소, 바다에서는 과대 모의하였다. 미래 풍력에너지는 RCP 시나리오별로 다소 차이가 나타나지만 육지에서 증가, 바다에서는 감소할 것으로 예측되었으며 고도가 높은 산지 및 해안지역에서 미래 풍력에너지의 변동성이 증가할 것으로 분석되었다. 지역별 풍력에너지밀도 분석결과 제주에서 크게 증가할 것으로 예상되었으며 변동성도 크게 증가하였다. 미래 풍력에너지의 변동은 주변 기상장의 변화와 연관 지어 해석이 가능하였으나 큰 변동성으로 인한 불확실성이 증가할 것으로 판단할 수 있다. 본 연구를 통해서 분석된 결과는 미래 에너지 수급 및 활용계획 수립에 있어 기초자료로 활용될 수 있으리라 판단한다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제55권6호
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• pp.421-435
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• 2022

기후변화로 인해 자연재해의 빈도가 증가하고 있어 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 바탕으로 가뭄 영향을 평가 및 전망하고 가뭄 위험도 감소를 위한 기후변화 적응 대책이 필요하다. 가뭄 위험도(risk)를 평가하기 위해서는 기후 요소뿐만 아니라 가뭄 발생 지역의 사회·경제적인 요소들 또한 고려해야 한다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 IPCC의 재난 위험도 분석 프레임워크에 따라 가뭄 위험도 평가 요소를 위해성(Hazard), 노출도(Exposure), 취약성(Vulnerability)으로 나누고 이에 맞는 각 지표를 선정하여 우리나라 중권역 단위의 가뭄 위험도를 정량화하였다. 미래 가뭄 위험도 평가를 위해 근 미래(2030-2050년)와 먼 미래(2080년-2099년)에 대해 기후변화 시나리오(RCP 2.6, RCP 8.5)와 사회경제 시나리오(SSP1, SSP2, SSP3)를 조합하여 가뭄 위험도를 살펴보고 이를 과거(1986-2005년)와 비교·분석하였다. 미래 시나리오에 따른 가뭄 위험도는 시간에 따라 전 유역에 걸쳐 먼 미래에 크게 상승하였다. 그리고 가뭄 위험도의 각 요소별 기여도와 순위 분석을 통해 미래 가뭄 위험도 상승에 대해 가뭄 위해성의 기여도가 전반적으로 크고, 유역별로 상승 요인이 다르다는 것을 확인했다. 이에 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 유역별 해결 방안을 제시하여 향후 가뭄대책 수립을 위한 정책에 기반이 될 수 있도록 하였다.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제24권1호
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• pp.31-46
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• 2015

In this study, the regional climate (WRF) and air quality (CMAQ) models were used to simulate the effects of future urban growth on surface ozone concentrations in the Seoul metropolitan region (SMR). These analyses were performed based on changes in ozone concentrations during ozone seasons (May-June) for the year 2050 (future) relative to 2012 (present) by urban growth. The results were compared with the impacts of RCP scenarios on ozone concentrations in the SMR. The fractions of urban in the SMR (25.8 %) for the 2050 were much higher than those (13.9 %) for the 2012 and the future emissions (e.g., CO, NO, $NO_2$, $SO_2$, VOC) were increased from 121 % (NO) to 161.3 % ($NO_2$) depending on emission material. The mean and daily maximum 1-h ozone in the SMR increased about 3 - 7 ppb by the effect the RCP scenarios. However, the effect of urban growth reduced the mean ozone by 3 ppb in the SMR and increased the daily maximum 1-h ozone by 2 - 5 ppb over the northeastern SMR and around the coastline. In particular, the ozone pollution days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard (100 ppb) were far more affected by urban growth than mean values. As a result, the average number of days exceeding the 1-h regulatory standard increased up to 10 times.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권4호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제18권3호
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• pp.51-64
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• 2015

Climate change will make significant impact on species distribution in forest. Pinus koraiensis which is commonly called as Korean Pine is normally distributed in frigid zones. Climate change which causes severe heat could affect distribution of Korean pine. Therefore, this study predicted the distribution of Korean Pine and the suitable habitat area with consideration on uncertainty by applying climate change scenarios on an ensemble model. First of all, a site index was considered when selecting present and absent points and a stratified method was used to select the points. Secondly, environmental and climate variables were chosen by literature review and then confirmed with experts. Those variables were used as input data of BIOMOD2. Thirdly, the present distribution model was made. The result was validated with ROC. Lastly, RCP scenarios were applied on the models to create the future distribution model. As a results, each individual model shows quite big differences in the results but generally most models and ensemble models estimated that the suitable habitat area would be decreased in midterm future(40s) as well as long term future(90s).