• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Return

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Estimating Worst Case Flood and Inundation Damages under Climate Change

  • Kim, Sunmin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Nakakita, Eiichi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.189-189
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    • 2016
  • To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

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A Study on the Current State of the Library's AI Service and the Service Provision Plan (도서관의 인공지능(AI) 서비스 현황 및 서비스 제공 방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kwak, Woojung;Noh, Younghee
    • Journal of Korean Library and Information Science Society
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.155-178
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    • 2021
  • In the era of the 4th industrial revolution, public libraries need a strategy for promoting intelligent library services in order to actively respond to changes in the external environment such as artificial intelligence. Therefore, in this study, based on the concept of artificial intelligence and analysis of domestic and foreign artificial intelligence related trends, policies, and cases, we proposed the future direction of introduction and development of artificial intelligence services in the library. Currently, the library operates a reference information service that automatically provides answers through the introduction of artificial intelligence technologies such as deep learning and natural language processing, and develops a big data-based AI book recommendation and automatic book inspection system to increase business utilization and provide customized services for users. Has been provided. In the field of companies and industries, regardless of domestic and overseas, we are developing and servicing technologies based on autonomous driving using artificial intelligence, personal customization, etc., and providing optimal results by self-learning information using deep learning. It is developed in the form of an equation. Accordingly, in the future, libraries will utilize artificial intelligence to recommend personalized books based on the user's usage records, recommend reading and culture programs, and introduce real-time delivery services through transport methods such as autonomous drones and cars in the case of book delivery service. Service development should be promoted.

Comparative Study of the Requirements for the Buyer's Right to Require Delivery of Substitute Goods under the CISG and the Korean Civil Act

  • Lee, Yoon
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.81-98
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study aims to compare the requirements under the United Nations Convention on Contract for the International Sales of Goods (CISG) and the Korean Civil Act (KCA) regarding the buyer's right to require the delivery of substitute goods. The buyer's right to demand substitute delivery not only protect them from the seller's breach of contract but also preserves the contractual bond between the parties by providing an opportunity for sellers to protect their goodwill and circumvent the extreme remedy of avoidance. However, as substitute delivery entails additional efforts and costs for return and re-shipment, this right should not be allowed in every case of defect. Additionally, unlike the CISG, the KCA contains no specific provision related to the requirements for claiming substitute delivery. Therefore, it would be meaningful to examine and compare what requirements should be fulfilled before the buyer exercises the right in relation to non-conforming goods under the CISG and the KCA. Design/methodology - We conducted a comparative study of the requirements under the CISG and the KCA regarding the buyer's right to require delivery of substitute goods given a seller's delivery of non-conforming goods. Additionally, we referred to the opinions from the CISG Advisory Council, the draft of the KCA amendment, and related precedents, mainly focusing on the existence and severity of defects, reasonableness, and timely notice and requests as the major requirements for substitute delivery. Findings - The results of this study can be summarized as follows: First, the CISG provides more detailed requirements about the right to require delivery of substitute goods; by contrast, the KCA does not stipulate any such requirement. Thus, specific requirements for substitute delivery should be included when amending the KCA. Second, the CISG attempts to minimize overlapping and conflict with other remedies by specifying detailed requirements for the delivery of substitutes. Third, both the CISG and KCA require reasonableness for substitute delivery. Originality/value - Although there are no explicit legal requirements for substitute delivery under the KCA, there has been relatively little discussion of this issue to date. Therefore, the findings of our study can guide future revisions of the KCA to fill this loophole. Moreover, the recently released CISG Advisory Council opinion that clarifies the continuing confusion and debate, can help distinguish which remedy is suitable for a particular case. It may provide practical advice for businesspeople in international trade as well as legal implications for the future development of the KCA.

What are the Characteristics and Future Directions of Domestic Angel Investment Research? (국내 엔젤투자 연구의 특징과 향후 방향은 무엇인가?)

  • Min Kim;Byung Chul Choi;Woo Jin Lee
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2023
  • The investigation delved into 457 pieces of scholarly work, encompassing articles, published theses, and dissertations from the National Research Foundation of Korea, spanning the period of the 1997 IMF financial crisis up to 2022. The materials were sourced using terms such as 'angel investment', 'angel investor', and 'angel investment attraction'. The initial phase involved filtering out redundant entries from the preliminary collection of 267 works, leaving aside pieces that didn't pertain directly to angel investment as indicated in their abstracts. The next stage of the analysis involved a more rigorous selection process. Out of 43 papers earmarked in the preceding cut, only 32 were chosen. The criteria for this focused on the exclusion of conference presentations, articles that were either not submitted or inconclusive, and those that duplicated content under different titles. The final selection of 32 papers underwent a thorough systematic literature review. These documents, all pertinent to angel investment in South Korea, were scrutinized under five distinct categories: 1) publication year, 2) themes of research, 3) strategies employed in the studies, 4) participants involved in the research, and 5) methods of research utilized. This meticulous process illuminated the existing landscape of angel investment studies within Korea. Moreover, this study pinpointed gaps in the current body of research, offering guidance on future scholarly directions and proposing social scientific theories to further enrich the field of angel investment studies and analysis also seeks to pinpoint which areas require additional exploration to energize the field of angel investment moving forward. Through a comprehensive review of literature, this research intends to validate the establishment of future research trajectories and pinpoint areas that are currently and relatively underexplored in Korea's angel investment research stream. This study revealed that current research on domestic angel investment is concentrated on several areas: 1) the traits of angel investors, 2) the motivations behind angel investing, 3) startup ventures, 4) relevant institutions and policies, and 5) the various forms of angel investments. It was determined that there is a need to broaden the scope of research to aid in enhancing and stimulating the scale of domestic angel investing. This includes research into performance analysis of angel investments and detailed case studies in the field. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the importance of diversifying research efforts. Instead of solely focusing on specific factors like investment types, startups, accelerators, venture capital, and regulatory frameworks, there is a call for research that explores a variety of associated variables. These include aspects related to crowdfunding and return on investment in the context of angel investing, ensuring a more holistic approach to research in this domain. Specifically, there's a clear need for more detailed studies focusing on the relationships with variables that serve as dependent variables influencing the outcomes of angel investments. Moreover, it's essential to invigorate both qualitative and quantitative research that delves into the theoretical framework from multiple perspectives. This involves analyzing the structure of variables that have an impact on angel investments and the decisions surrounding these investments, thereby enriching the theoretical foundation of this field. Finally, we presented the direction of development for future research by confirming that the effect on the completeness of the business plan is high or low depending on the satisfaction of the entrepreneurs in addition to the components.

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Shadow of War Covering the Steam Punk Animations (스팀펑크 애니메이션에 드리운 전쟁의 그늘 -미야자키 하야오 감독의 작품을 중심으로-)

  • Oh, Jin-hee
    • Cartoon and Animation Studies
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    • s.46
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    • pp.63-84
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    • 2017
  • Overwhelming images of vividly colored aircraft flying across the blue sky and steam gushing from massive machines are reminiscent of Japanese animation films, especially of works by master director Hayao Miyazaki. By presenting together steam engines, which are mechanical devices of the Industrial Age in the past, and aircraft of the future age, the director constructs ambiguous space and time. These special time and space constitute nostalgia for past time, with devices called steam engines as a medium, and a longing for science and the future as represented by aircraft. In addition, the anticipation and disappointment, ideals and regrets of humans who see these two from the perspective of the present are projected on the works. This shares the characteristic of the steam punk genre, which seeks to return to the past rather than to face current problems. A subgenre of science fiction (henceforth "sci-fi"), steam punk reflects fundamental skepticism of science and technology and mechanized civilization, which have developed beyond human control. In addition, as works that clearly display such characteristics, director Miyazaki's and < $Nausica{\ddot{a}}$ of the Valley of Wind> can be examined. With spectacles of steam engines and aircraft, these two works enticingly visualize narratives about nature and humans and about the environment and destruction. Such attractiveness on the part of the master director's works has led to support from fans worldwide. However, often in the backgrounds of director Miyazaki's works, which have depicted ideal worlds of nature, environment, and community as highly concentrated fantasies, lie presuppositions of war and the end of the world. As works that are especially prominent in such characteristics, there are and . These two works betray the expectations of the audience by establishing the actual wartime as the temporal background and proceeding toward narratives of reality. Trapped in the ontological identity of the director himself, the war depicted by him projects a subjective and romantic attitude. Such a problem stems also from the ambiguity of the hybrid space and time, which is basic to the steam punk genre. This is because the basic characteristic of steam punk is to transplant past time, which humans were able to control, in the future from a perspective of optimism and longing via steam engines rather than to face current problems. In this respect, steam punk animation films in themselves can be seen as having significance and limitations at the same time.

The Price Dynamics in Futures and Option Markets - based on KOSPI200 stock index market - (주가지수선물가격과 옵션가격의 동적관련성에 관한 연구 - KOSPI 200 주가지수현물시장을 중심으로 -)

  • Seo, Sang-Gu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.37-49
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    • 2017
  • This study investigates the dynamic relationship between KOSPI200 stock index and stock index futures and stock index option markets which is its derived from KOSPI200 stock index. We use 5-minutes rate of return data from 2012. 06 to 2014. 12. To empirical analysis, this study use autocorrelation and cross-correlation analysis as a preliminary analysis and then following Stoll and Whaley(1990) and Chan(1992), the multiple regression is estimated to examine the lead-lag patterns between the stock index and stock index futures and option markets by Newey and West's(1987) Empirical results of our study shows as follows. First, there exist a strong autocorrelation in the KOSPI200 stock index before 10minutes but a very weak autocorrelation in the stock index futures and option markets. Second, there is a strong evidence that stock index future and option markets lead KOSPI200 stock index in the cross-correlation analysis. Third, based on the multiple regression, the stock index futures and option markets lead the stock index prior to 10-15 minutes and weak evidence that the stock index leads the future and option markets. This results show that the market efficient of KOSPI200 stock index market is improved as compared to the early stage of stock index future and option market.

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Optimal Water Allocation by Dynamic Programming (동적계획법에 의한 물 배분)

  • 이순탁;이진우
    • Water for future
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.163-174
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    • 1985
  • This study aims at the development of a technique for the optimal water allocation by applying Dynamic Programming Model for the effective usage and rational allocation of water resources, in case of which limited water resources in river basin should be used in several stages. In analytical procedure the possible allocable area was firstly zoned into the four areas: Pohang area ($C_1$), Yeungcheon area ($C_2$), Gyeungsan area ($C_3$), Daegu area ($C_4$), which are located between the Yeongcheon dam and the confluence of the lower Kumho river and the main course of the Nakdong river. Secondly, a return function was determined on the basis of the correlation between the GRP in each area and the amount of water used to it. A DP Model, finally, was applied to the allocation of the water resources according to both their usage and the areas. As a result, the fact has been found that when allocating by the area, $C_1$ could be possibly supplied only with the water resources avaiable from the Yeungchon dam, and the maximum units supplied to $C_1$ should be 240 units ($1unit=10^3㎥$ per day), beyond which we ought to develop an alternative water resources. Also, the return from the allocation by the usage exceeded the one from it by the area. At the same time it was more profitable to limit the water supply to $C_1$ into 217 units. In the allocation by the area 240 units and 80 units, if only the water resources available from the Yeungcheon dam used, and 360 units and 80 units if the Doil dam used additionally, could be supplied to $C_1$ and the lower region respectively. In the allocation by the usage 103 units for industrial water with 33 units for both domestic and commercial water and 183 units, if only the water resources available from the Yeungcheon dam used, and 103 units with 33 units and 304 units, if the Doil dam taken into consideration additionally, could be supplied to $C_1$ and the lower region respectively. Therefore, much more water could be allocated to the region of lower Kumho river if the method of water allocation by the usage.

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A Study on the Current Status of Ecological Restoration Plant Species Use - Focusing on the Ecosystem Conservation Cooperation Fund Return Projects - (생태복원 식물종 사용 실태에 관한 연구 - 생태계보전협력금 반환사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Cho, Dong-gil
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.525-547
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    • 2021
  • The main purpose of this study is to examine the use of plant species in ecological restoration projects. To this end, planting drawings from 58 sites that had completed the return of the ecosystem conservation cooperation fund for the past six years were collected and analyzed. The analysis used the construction completion and design drawings to determine the overall selection status and analyze frequency by classifying planted plants into wild and cultivated plants by nature, size, vegetation climate, and upland and wetland habitat. The investigation and analysis process found many cases of wrong plant names, so an analysis was also performed on the matter. In the 58 investigation sites, 282 plants were used for planting: 91 tree species, 69 shrub species, 11 vine species, and 111 herbal species. The most commonly used plant species was Spiraea prunifolia f. simpliciflora, followed by Sorbus alnifolia, Quercus acutissima, Zoysia japonica, Callicarpa dichotoma, and Weigela subsessilisin that order. The most commonly used tree species was Sorbus alnifolia,followed by Quercus acutissima, Zelkova serrata, Chionanthus retusus, and Cornus officinalis, in that order. The most commonly used shrub species was Spiraea prunifolia f. simpliciflora, followed by Weigela subsessilis, Callicarpa dichotoma, Rhododendron yedoense f. poukhanense. and Euonymus alatusin that order. The most commonly used herbal plant species was Zoysia japonica, followed by Dendranthema zawadskii var. latilobum, Aster koraiensis, Miscanthus sacchariflorus, and Pennisetum alopecuroidesin that order. In the analysis by vegetation climate, Spiraea prunifolia f. simpliciflora, Callicarpa dichotoma, and Sorbus alnifoliawere most used in that order in both the temperate central and the warm temperate forest zones, but the pattern does not properly reflect the climate characteristics. In the analysis by habitat, Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Lythrum salicariawere most used in the wetland. In particular, the ratio of wild plants to cultivated plants was 76% to 24%, indicating the ratio of selecting cultivated plants was high. The names of plants on the drawings were mostly common names that did not appear in the Korea National Arboretum or the National Species List of Korea. It is necessary to use proper plant names in the future. Regarding the use of planting plants for ecological restoration, it is necessary to adopt the approach of diversifying selected plants, selecting plants according to characteristics of climate zones, and lowering the specifications of plants used for ecological restoration. Moreover, it is important to fully understand the ecological characteristics of wetland plants and minimize the ratio of using cultivated plants to ensure the plant selection centered on wild plants.

Examining the Influence of Science Museum Service Quality on Customer Satisfaction and Revisit Intention - A Case of Gwacheon National Science Museum - (과학관 서비스 품질이 고객만족도 및 재방문 의도에 미치는 영향 분석 - 국립과천과학관을 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Jung won;Nam, Tae woo;Cho, Jae min
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.27
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2017
  • The number of science museums in Korea has expanded quantitatively from 72 in 2008 to 128 in 2016. This study started with the fact that the government puts a lot of budget into building a science museum, but there are more than one quarter of science museums with less than 50 spectators per day and many inefficient institutions. The number of visitors is an important factor in improving the efficiency of the science museum operation. The purpose of this study is to analyze the relation between the service quality of the science museum and the customer satisfaction and the intention to revisit and to find out what kind of effort should be concentrated in the science museum to attract more visitors. Questionnaires were written in the exhibition, education, and culture fields of the Gwacheon National Science Museum. The results were derived by frequency analysis, reliability analysis, factor analysis, and multiple regression analysis. The results and contents of the study are as follows. First, in the field of exhibition, the quality of exhibition facilities was expected to affect customer satisfaction and intention to return, but did not have a meaningful relationship. Second, the education sector has been found to affect customer satisfaction and return intention in all aspects of service quality (operation and contents, instructors, educational facilities and environment). Third, in the field of culture (event), the quality of the cultural program influences the visitor satisfaction, but it does not affect the intention to revisit. The science museum can provide satisfaction to visitors by combining activities such as science and arts. Despite the limitations, it is necessary to make efforts to improve the visitor satisfaction and revisit by proceeding with the convergence research on the entire National Science Museum in the future.

Gross Profitability Premium in the Korean Stock Market and Its Implication for the Fund Distribution Industry (한국 주식시장에서 총수익성 프리미엄에 관한 분석 및 펀드 유통산업에 주는 시사점)

  • Yoon, Bo-Hyun;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.9
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - This paper's aim is to investigate whether or not gross profitability explains the cross-sectional variation of the stock returns in the Korean stock market. Gross profitability is an alternative profitability measure proposed by Novy-Marx in 2013 to predict cross-sectional variation of stock returns in the US. He shows that the gross profitability adds explanatory power to the Fama-French 3 factor model. Interestingly, gross profitability is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. By confirming the gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market, we may provide some implications regarding the well-known value premium. In addition, our empirical results may provide opportunities for the fund distribution industry to promote brand new styles of funds. Research design, data, and methodology - For our empirical analysis, we collect monthly market prices of all the companies listed on the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) of the Korea Exchanges (KRX). Our sample period covers July1994 to December2014. The data from the company financial statementsare provided by the financial information company WISEfn. First, using Fama-Macbeth cross-sectional regression, we investigate the relation between gross profitability and stock return performance. For robustness in analyzing the performance of the gross profitability strategy, we consider value weighted portfolio returns as well as equally weighted portfolio returns. Next, using Fama-French 3 factor models, we examine whether or not the gross profitability strategy generates excess returns when firmsize and the book-to-market ratio are controlled. Finally, we analyze the effect of firm size and the book-to-market ratio on the gross profitability strategy. Results - First, through the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regression, we show that gross profitability has almost the same explanatory power as the book-to-market ratio in explaining the cross-sectional variation of the Korean stock market. Second, we find evidence that gross profitability is a statistically significant variable for explaining cross-sectional stock returns when the size and the value effect are controlled. Third, we show that gross profitability, which is positively correlated with stock returns and firm size, is negatively correlated with the book-to-market ratio. From the perspective of portfolio management, our results imply that since the gross profitability strategy is a distinctive growth strategy, value strategies can be improved by hedging with the gross profitability strategy. Conclusions - Our empirical results confirm the existence of a gross profitability premium in the Korean stock market. From the perspective of the fund distribution industry, the gross profitability portfolio is worthy of attention. Since the value strategy portfolio returns are negatively correlated with the gross profitability strategy portfolio returns, by mixing both portfolios, investors could be better off without additional risk. However, the profitable firms are dissimilar from the value firms (high book-to-market ratio firms); therefore, an alternative factor model including gross profitability may help us understand the economic implications of the well-known anomalies such as value premium, momentum, and low volatility. We reserve these topics for future research.