• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Return

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A Study on the Market Efficiency with Different Maturity in the Futures Markets (선물시장의 만기별 시장효율성에 관한 연구 - 베이시스간의 정보효과를 이용하여 -)

  • Seo, Sang-Gu;Park, Joung-Hae
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.273-284
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    • 2016
  • The objective of this study is to analyze the market efficiency in the futures markets. Although many previous studies have investigated market efficiency between spot and futures prices, that with different maturities has not been studied in the futures markets extensively. For our objective, this paper examines KOSPI200 stock index future market with different maturities. We analyze the dynamic serial relationship of the difference of basis between nearest-month contract and next nearest-month contract using dynamic regression analysis suggested by Kawamoto and Hamori(2011) Using the data from 2000. 1 to 2013. 12, the major empirical findings are as follows: First. the mean and standard deviation of basis of next nearest-month contract is bigger than those of nearest-month contract. Second, the t-period basis of nearest-month contract can be explained by (t-1)period basis of that. Third, the basis spread of t-period and (t-1)period have negative affect on the return of underlying assets. This result is very reasonable because two basis spreads are derived from same underlying assets. Finally, basis information of next nearest-month contract can be used for the prediction of nearest-month contract and spot market return.

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Investment Analysis of the Modernized Green Houses in Korea (현대화 온실의 투자분석)

  • Lee, Kwang-Won;Lim, Jae-Hwan;Lee, Doo-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.170-181
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    • 1997
  • The number of modernized green houses have been increased to produce high quality and high-payoff farm products. The unit investment costs per pyeong($3.3058m^2$) for building a glass house was estimated at 449 thousand won. On the other hand, the unit prices for the PC house with iron frame and the vynil house with automatic control system were revealed 365 thousand won and 93 thousand won respectively. The main objective of the study was to identify the financial feasibility of the green house investment prevailed in rural area. At present, some farmers have selected the green house without any consideration of profitability of crops and accessiblity of their fanning practices and technology. For the soundness of green house cultivation and management, the indices of finacial efficiency for the modernized green houses were necessary. The decesion making criteria such as NPV(Net Present Value), IRR(Internal Rate of Return), B/C Ratio and Payback Period were analyzed for the individual high investment facilities considering the present farmer's technology and on-farm benefits and costs. The results of the feasibility analysis of green houses were as follows: 1. In case of 100% private burden of the investment costs, NPV revealed only positive value for the vinyl house with automatic system and IRR for the house was also estimated at more than 10% and B/C Ratio was amounted to more than 1.0. On the other hand, the other glass and PC houses showed negative NPV and unacceptable B/C ratio and IRR. 2. In case of the following terms and conditions as 50% Government subsidy, 20% loans and 30% farmers burden of the total investment cost, all the green houses showed acceptable IRR, B/C Ratio and NPV. 3. The financial feasibility of the glass house was acceptable in tomato cultivation rather than in cucumber cultivation. The payback periods of cucumber were represented as 8.9 years for glass house, 8.5 years for PC house and 4.1 years for vinyl house with automatic system respectively. In conclution, the glass and PC house cultivation of high value vegetables were only acceptable under the Goverment subsidy and loan systems from the view point of farmer's financial situations. On account of the unacceptable economic rate of return, the government subsidy and loan policy for glass house cultivation should be transfered to the vinyl and pc houses in the future.

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Functional Evaluation after Modified Brostrom Procedure with Suture Bridge Technique for Chronic Ankle Instability in Athletes (운동선수의 만성 발목관절 불안정성에서 교량형 봉합술을 이용한 변형 Brostrom 술식 후의 기능평가)

  • Park, Ji-Kang;Park, Kyoung-Jin;Cho, Byung-Ki;Im, Chae-Wook
    • Journal of Korean Foot and Ankle Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.108-114
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Ligament reattachment technique using a suture anchor appears to show satisfactory functional outcomes and mechanical stability compared with conventional bone tunnel technique. This study was prospectively conducted in order to evaluate functional outcomes of modified Brostrom procedures using the suture bridge technique for chronic ankle instability in athletes. Materials and Methods: Twenty eight athletes under 30 years of age were followed for more than two years after undergoing the modified Brostrom procedure using the suture bridge technique. Functional evaluation consisted of the foot and ankle outcome score (FAOS), foot and ankle ability measure (FAAM) score. Range of motion and time to return to exercise were evaluated using a periodic questionnaire. Talar tilt angle and anterior talar translation were measured through stress radiographs for evaluation of mechanical stability. Results: FAOS improved significantly from preoperative mean 59.4 points to 91.4 points (p<0.001). Daily living and sport activity scores of FAAM improved significantly from preoperative mean 50.5, 32.5 points to 94.8, 87.3 points, respectively (p<0.001). Talar tilt angle and anterior talar translation improved significantly from preoperative mean $16.8^{\circ}$, 13.5 mm to $4.2^{\circ}$, 4.1 mm at final follow-up (p<0.001). Times to return to exercise were as follows: mean 10.2 weeks in jogging, 15.4 weeks in spurt running, 13.1 weeks in jumping, 11.5 weeks in walking on uneven ground, 9.1 weeks in standing on one leg, 7.2 weeks in tip-toeing gait, 8.4 weeks in squatting, and 10.6 weeks in descending stairs. Conclusion: Modified Brostrom procedure using the suture bridge technique showed satisfactory functional outcomes for chronic ankle instability in athletes. Optimal indication and cost-effectiveness of the suture bridge technique will be studied in the future.

The Study on the Estimation of Optimal Debt Ratio in Korean Agricultural Corporations (한국 농업법인의 적정부채비율 추정을 위한 실증연구)

  • Kim, Woo-Seok;Seo, Beom;Im, In-Seob
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.135-142
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    • 2017
  • This study employs an analytical mathematical model to estimate the optimal debt ratio of Korean agricultural corporations, more sensitive to the government debt ratio policy compared to other industries, and the estimation of the optimal debt ratio based on objective data. The analytical model utilizes the equation for ROE, with the debt ratio as an independent variable, and related parameters include ROS, TAT, and NFCL. Regarding the NFCL, the optimal debt ratio standard is defined as the debt ratio that maximizes the ROE by analytical procedures such as adding an equation concerning the debt ratio and a linearity relationship to the analytical model, and from these equations, a quadratic equation with the debt ratio as an independent variable describes the ROE. This methodemploys fourteen years of corporate data. Results show that 138% of debt ratio is the optimal debt ratio to increase the ROE of the corporations, which implies that the existing debt ratio of Korean agricultural corporations is higher than optimal. Consequently, it is required for authorities to change future debt ratio policies in view that the purpose of debt ratio management is to maintain safety and increase profitability.Management should emphasize characteristics of the specific industry rather than standardized judgements based on numerical indexes.

Exploring Relationships of Factors Influencing Career Choices Among Asian American Social Workers (동양계 미국 사회복지사의 진로선택에 영향을 미친 요소들 간의 관계에 대한 연구)

  • Lee, Soon-Min
    • Korean Journal of Social Welfare Studies
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.181-211
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    • 2009
  • Asian Americans are one of the fastest growing minority groups in the United States. One of the stereotypes associated with Asians is that they are more likely to choose careers in science, medicine, and engineering rather than social science, inclusive of social work, mass communication, or humanities (Leong & Serafica, 1995; Tang et al., 1999). This occupational stereotyping of Asians is not just a myth in that only a few Asians choose social work as a career (Lennon, 2005; NASW, 2006). Few studies exist on Asian Americans who do not choose Asian stereotypical career choices, such as social work. Acknowledging this lack of research, the present study was developed to explore the relationships between factors that may influence Asian Americans who choose social work as their career. Based on Social Cognitive Career Theory (Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994), it was hypothesized that acculturation and family immigration status influenced parental involvement, disapproval by significant others as a perceived career barrier among Asian American social workers. A cross-sectional survey design was used in this study. The sample was derived from the members'database of the National Association of Social Workers (NASW). A total of 900 were randomly chosen among 1,802 of Asian American social workers in the NASW database, and 370 Asian American social workers participated in this study with 41 percent of a return rate. Quantitative data were collected through standardized measurements: Suinn-Lew Asian Self-Identity Acculturation Scale (Suinn, Rickard-Figueroa, Lew, & Vigil, 1987); Career Barriers Inventory Revised (Swanson, et al., 1996); and eight items from Tang et al.'s (1999) Asian American Career Development Questionnaire. The data were collected through a combined method of an online survey with option of a paper mail-return questionnaire. Results of the study found significant group differences among family immigration status groups on parental involvement, and perceived likelihood and hindrance of disapproval by significant others. The group of the 2nd generation reported the highest scores of parental involvement among the family immigration status groups. Also, Asian American social workers who represented the 3rd and higher generation of immigration reported lowest perceived likelihood and hindrance scores of disapproval by significant others. However, there was no significant multivariate effect of acculturation on parental involvement, and perceived likelihood and hindrance of disapproval by significant others. Implications and limitations of this study, as well as suggestions for future research, are discussed.

Development of an evaluation index based on supply capacity for practical evaluation of drought resilience (현실적 가뭄대응력 평가를 위한 공급가능일수 기반의 평가지표 개발)

  • Kim, Gi Joo;Kim, Jiheun;Seo, Seung Beom;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.1
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    • pp.11-21
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    • 2023
  • This study suggests the drought resilience index as S-day as a means of preparing for the recent extreme drought, allowing for the actual operational identification of each drought countermeasure's priority as well as the vulnerability of water resource facilities to drought. Although each dam's drought measures are unique in this case, the representative examples include adjusting the water supply, linking the functioning of various facilities, and considering emergency capacity. Here, 15 multipurpose dams and water supply dams in Korea were inspected. Under the return period of 20-year drought, most of dams showed stable by adjusting the water supply overall. The measures, however, did not seem to be able to resist a multi-year drought lasting more than two years. Besides, Hoengseong and Anodong-Imha Dam only lasted a year under the 100-year drought return period with other measures. Without the deployment of drought mitigation strategies, it is expected that the Hoengseong Dam, Andong-Imha Dam, Gunwi Dam, Unmun Dam, Daecheong Dam, and Juam Dam would not be able to meet the all water demand for a year under the 20-year drought condition. The ideal capacity for each drought measure was then suggested. Additionally, by increasing or decreasing the current supply contract by 10% in order to account for demand changes resulting from socio-economic instability, the drought response capacity of all 15 dams was re-evaluated. By lowering the supply contract amount by 10%, it was possible to endure a severe drought.

Price Discovery in the Korean Treasury Bond Futures Market (한국국채선물시장에서의 가격발견기능에 관한 연구)

  • Seo, Sang-Gu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.257-275
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    • 2011
  • The price relationship between the futures market and the underlying spot market has attracted the attention of academics, practitioners, and regulators due to their roles during periods of turbulence in financial markets. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the dynamic of price relationship(or lead-lag relationship) between Korean Treasury Bond futures market and spot market. To examine the nature of the price relationship, descriptive statistics, serial correlation, and cross-correlation are used as a preliminary statistics in the Korean Treasury Bond spot and futures market. Next, following Stoll-Whaley(1990) and Chan(1992), the multiple regression method is used to examine the lead-lag patterns between the two markets. The empirical results are summarized as follows. The mean returns of spot markets and future markets are positive(+) and negative(-) respectively and the standard deviation of both stock and futures returns increase through the sub-periods. For the most periods, there is negative skewness in the both markets. The zero excess kurtosis due to the heavy tails of the distribution are relatively large. The autocorrelations in the spot returns for the sample periods are positive in time lag 1, but the autocorrelations in the future returns shows no significant evidence. The results of the daily cross-correlations between the KTB spot and futures returns indicate that a lead-lag relationship don't exist for price changes of futures and spot markets as a preliminary analysis. Finally, empirical results of regression analysis for both market indicate that there is no evidence that the KTB futures lead the KTB spot market, or the KTB spot market lead the KTB futures market. These results are robust for all sub-periods.

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Proposal Strategy and Performance Analysis of Electronic Human Resources Management Pilot Project (건설근로자공제회 전자인력관리(전자카드제)시범사업 성과 분석 및 추진전략 도출)

  • Kim, Inchie;Chin, Sangyoon;Kim, Seongah;Kim, Yeasang;Lee, Sangjun;Park, Soohun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.3-11
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    • 2018
  • The Construction Workers Mutual Aid Association is carrying out a number of strategic tasks with the goal of "contributing to improving employment and stabilizing the return of workers to construction workers through employment welfare and retirement deduction services." One of them is the retirement deduction system. The retirement allowance system is a system for the retirement income and livelihood security of construction workers who are not adequately protected by the Labor Standards Act, such as retirement allowances due to the nature of day labor. The Construction Workers Mutual Aid Association has promoted the introduction of electronic manpower management. For the efficient management of the pilot sites and the plans for the future, comprehensive evaluation of the pilot sites as well as the evaluation of the status and operation results of each pilot project site are needed. Therefore, in this study, we will develop performance indicators to evaluate the current state of electronic manpower pilot projects and analyze the actual situation of pilot project sites through actual application, and try to derive future implementation strategies.

Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Imha-Dam Watershed Hydrologic Cycle under RCP Scenarios (RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 임하댐 유역의 미래 수문순환 전망)

  • Jang, Sun-Sook;Ahn, So-Ra;Joh, Hyung-Kyung;Kim, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.156-169
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    • 2015
  • This study was to evaluate the RCP climate change impact on hydrological components in the Imha-Dam watershed using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model. The model was calibrated for six year(2002~2007) and validated for six year(2008~2013) using daily observed streamflow data at three watershed stations. The overall simulation results for the total released volume at this point appear reasonable by showing that coefficient of determination($R^2$) were 0.70~0.85 and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency(NSE) were 0.67-0.82 for streamflow, respectively. For future hydrologic evaluation, the HadGEM3-RA climate data by scenarios of Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 of the Korea Meteorological Administration were adopted. The biased future data were corrected using 34 years(1980~2013, baseline period) of weather data. Precipitation and temperature showed increase of 10.8% and 4.9%, respectively based on the baseline data. The impacts of future climate change on the evapotranspiration, soil moisture, surface runoff, lateral flow, return flow and streamflow showed changes of +11.2%, +1.9%, +10.0%, +12.1%, +18.2%, and +11.2%, respectively.

A study on the prediction of korean NPL market return (한국 NPL시장 수익률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Hyeon Su;Jeong, Seung Hwan;Oh, Kyong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.123-139
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    • 2019
  • The Korean NPL market was formed by the government and foreign capital shortly after the 1997 IMF crisis. However, this market is short-lived, as the bad debt has started to increase after the global financial crisis in 2009 due to the real economic recession. NPL has become a major investment in the market in recent years when the domestic capital market's investment capital began to enter the NPL market in earnest. Although the domestic NPL market has received considerable attention due to the overheating of the NPL market in recent years, research on the NPL market has been abrupt since the history of capital market investment in the domestic NPL market is short. In addition, decision-making through more scientific and systematic analysis is required due to the decline in profitability and the price fluctuation due to the fluctuation of the real estate business. In this study, we propose a prediction model that can determine the achievement of the benchmark yield by using the NPL market related data in accordance with the market demand. In order to build the model, we used Korean NPL data from December 2013 to December 2017 for about 4 years. The total number of things data was 2291. As independent variables, only the variables related to the dependent variable were selected for the 11 variables that indicate the characteristics of the real estate. In order to select the variables, one to one t-test and logistic regression stepwise and decision tree were performed. Seven independent variables (purchase year, SPC (Special Purpose Company), municipality, appraisal value, purchase cost, OPB (Outstanding Principle Balance), HP (Holding Period)). The dependent variable is a bivariate variable that indicates whether the benchmark rate is reached. This is because the accuracy of the model predicting the binomial variables is higher than the model predicting the continuous variables, and the accuracy of these models is directly related to the effectiveness of the model. In addition, in the case of a special purpose company, whether or not to purchase the property is the main concern. Therefore, whether or not to achieve a certain level of return is enough to make a decision. For the dependent variable, we constructed and compared the predictive model by calculating the dependent variable by adjusting the numerical value to ascertain whether 12%, which is the standard rate of return used in the industry, is a meaningful reference value. As a result, it was found that the hit ratio average of the predictive model constructed using the dependent variable calculated by the 12% standard rate of return was the best at 64.60%. In order to propose an optimal prediction model based on the determined dependent variables and 7 independent variables, we construct a prediction model by applying the five methodologies of discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model we tried to compare them. To do this, 10 sets of training data and testing data were extracted using 10 fold validation method. After building the model using this data, the hit ratio of each set was averaged and the performance was compared. As a result, the hit ratio average of prediction models constructed by using discriminant analysis, logistic regression model, decision tree, artificial neural network, and genetic algorithm linear model were 64.40%, 65.12%, 63.54%, 67.40%, and 60.51%, respectively. It was confirmed that the model using the artificial neural network is the best. Through this study, it is proved that it is effective to utilize 7 independent variables and artificial neural network prediction model in the future NPL market. The proposed model predicts that the 12% return of new things will be achieved beforehand, which will help the special purpose companies make investment decisions. Furthermore, we anticipate that the NPL market will be liquidated as the transaction proceeds at an appropriate price.