• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Return

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The Uncertainty of Extreme Rainfall in the Near Future and its Frequency Analysis over the Korean Peninsula using CMIP5 GCMs (CMIP5 GCMs의 근 미래 한반도 극치강수 불확실성 전망 및 빈도분석)

  • Yoon, Sun-kwon;Cho, Jaepil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.48 no.10
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    • pp.817-830
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    • 2015
  • This study performed prediction of extreme rainfall uncertainty and its frequency analysis based on climate change scenarios by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) for the selected nine-General Circulation Models (GCMs) in the near future (2011-2040) over the Korean Peninsula (KP). We analysed uncertainty of scenarios by multiple model ensemble (MME) technique using non-parametric quantile mapping method and bias correction method in the basin scale of the KP. During the near future, the extreme rainfall shows a significant gradually increasing tendency with the annual variability and uncertainty of extreme ainfall in the RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition to the probability rainfall frequency (such as 50 and 100-year return periods) has increased by 4.2% to 10.9% during the near future in 2040. Therefore, in the longer-term water resources master plan, based on the various climate change scenarios (such as CMIP5 GCMs) and its uncertainty can be considered for utilizing of the support tool for decision-makers in water-related disasters management.

Status of Agroforestry Outside in Forest Area of Bilaspur (Chhattisgarh) and Constraints for Non Adoption

  • Chandra, Krishna Kumar
    • Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.412-417
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    • 2018
  • Agroforestry is emerged as climate smart agriculture system and known to help in maintaining soil nutrient sustainability but its rate of expansion is still not appreciable. The present paper incorporates the different species under various agroforestry practices its density, growth and growing stock. The most dominated agroforestry practices in Bilaspur district identified as boundary tree based agri- silviculture (32%) followed with inside field tree based agri-silviculture (21%). Agri-horti-silvicultural system found merely in 5% farmer's field while silvo-pastoral practice in 8% fields. The result depicts that the most prevailing agroforestry tree species in non-forest area of Bilaspur comprises Acacia nilotica 36%, Butea monosperma 22%, Albizia spp 16%, Terminalia arjuna 7%, Azadirachta indica 3.5% and other species 15.5%. More than 90% farmer allows tree species growing naturally in their fields mainly for fuel wood, timber and as source of additional income as these species need not require special attention and care, while only 5% farmer's has adopted Tectona grandis, Dalbergia sissoo etc commercially for higher future return. The paper also discusses the constraints on agroforestry for enabling development of agroforestry in future.

Forecasting the Environmental Change of Technological Innovation System in South Korea in the COVID-19 Era

  • Kim, Youbean;Park, Soyeon;Kwon, Ki-Seok
    • Asian Journal of Innovation and Policy
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.133-144
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    • 2020
  • Korean economy has experienced a very rapid growth largely due to the change of the innovation system since the last half century. The recent outbreak of COVID-19 impacts the global economy as well as Korea's innovation system. In order to understand the influence of the shock to the Korean technological system, we have forecast the future of the system combining qualitative and quantitative techniques such as expert panel, cross impact analysis, and scenario planning. According to the results, we have identified 39 driving forces influencing the change of Korea's technological innovation system. Four scenarios have been suggested based on the predetermined factors and core uncertainties. In other words, uncertainties of emergence of the regions and global value chains generate four scenarios: regional growth, unstable hope, returning to the past, and regional conflicts. The 'regional growth' scenario is regarded as the most preferable, whereas the 'regional conflicts' scenario is unavoidable. In conclusion, we put forward some policy implications to boost the regional innovation system by exploiting the weakened global value chains in order to move on to the most preferable scenario away from the return to the past regime.

Measurements and analysis of load sharing between piles and raft in a pile foundation in clay

  • Watcharasawe, Kongpop;Jongpradist, Pornkasem;Kitiyodom, Pastsakorn;Matsumoto, Tatsunori
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.559-572
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    • 2021
  • This research presents the monitoring results and their interpretation on load sharing of the pile foundation during the construction of a high-rise (124 m in height) building in Bangkok, in soft clayey ground. Axial forces in several piles, pore water pressure and earth pressures beneath the raft in a tributary area were monitored through the construction period of the building. The raft of the pile foundation in soft clayey ground can share the load up to 10-20% even though the foundation was designed using the conventional approach in which the raft resistance is ignored. The benefit from the return of ground water table as the uplift pressure is recognized. A series of parametric study by 3D-FEA were carried out. The potential of utilizing the piled raft system for the high-rise building with underground basement in soft clayey ground was preliminarily confirmed.

A study on the Architectural planning of Farmhouse Types -Focused on Residential and Storage space planning in Farmhouse to Farming Scale- (농촌주택 유형별 건축계획에 관한 연구 -농사규모에 따른 농가 각부공간 및 창고계획을 중심으로-)

  • Park, Kwang-Bum;Kim, Tae-Ik
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Rural Architecture
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this paper is to seek the dwelling conditions for comfortable life like urban apartment with agriculture in farming area. In order to do above things, we divide types of people who is planning to 'return farm' and need to heavily research and analyze current status of use for farm house's each spaces include outside spaces. so this paper aimed that at first, divide types of farmhouse following agriculture condition for people who is living in rural and survey the present condition and problems by analyzing of present status of space use and draw the improvement plans for those. after then, finally make a architectural basic data for Rural houses plan. For the future, the main purpose of this paper is that make architectural provision possible by researching types and size of storage following sort and size of farm.

Requirement Analysis on Lightweight CAD Models in Ship PLM Environment and Its Application Examples (조선 PLM 환경에서 경량 CAD 모델에 대한 요구사항 분석 및 적용 사례)

  • Cheon, Sanguk;Lee, Ji-Hoon;Park, Kwang-Phil;Suh, Heung-Won
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.299-307
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    • 2013
  • Introduction of PLM in domestic shipyards is being retarded as ship PLM has yet to firm up return of investment and process integration. To implement a ship PLM system, it is required to share ship CAD model data in various design and manufacturing environments. Lightweight CAD models provide a promising solution for sharing CAD models in the product life cycle, which can expedite implementation of ship PLM in domestic shipyards in the near future. Compared to proprietary CAD models, it is easy for lightweight CAD models to be interfaced with various application systems and be connected to manufacturing information. In this paper, the reason why lightweight CAD models are necessary to implement a ship PLM system is addressed and current implementation results are introduced.

Revisiting Social Discount Rates for Public Investment

  • SONG, JOONHYUK
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.75-98
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    • 2017
  • This paper aims to estimate the social discount rate (SDR) rather than dig into its theoretical foundation. As SDRs can be derived by investigating both the rate of return on investment and the social time preference rate, we estimate the marginal productivity of both private and public capital and the time preference rate based on the Euler equation. In order to provide a single representative SDR, the weighted averages of the marginal productivity and time preference rate, whose weights are determined by the flow of funds data reflecting the social demand of funds, are presented. Based on the empirical results, we argue that the marginal productivity of private capital stands in the middle of the 3% range while that of public capital varies from 4.5% to 8.6%, with the time preference rate showing a decreasing trend from 3.2% in the early 2000s to 1.2% by around 2030. The single representative SDR or the weighted SDR is estimated to be approximately 3.0~4.5% and expected to continue its downward trend for the foreseeable future.

Modeling New Generation Expansion Planning Problems for Applications in Competitive Electric Power Industries (전력시장에 적용 가능한 새로운 전원개발계획문제 모델링)

  • 김진호;박종배;박준호
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers A
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.521-528
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    • 2004
  • The demise of the native franchise markets and the emergence of competitive markets in electricity generation service is substantially altering the way that operation and planning activity is conducted and is making it increasingly difficult for market participants such as generation firms to prospect the future electricity markets. Traditional generation expansion planning (GEP) problems which centrally determine the least-cost capacity addition plan that meets forecasted demand within pre-specified reliability criteria over a planning horizon (typically 10 to 20 years) is becoming no more valid in competitive market environments. Therefore, it requires to develop a new methodology for generation investments, which is applicable to the changed electric industry business environments and is able to address the post-privatization situation where individual generation firms seek to maximize their return on generation investments against uncertain market revenues. This paper formulates a new generation expansion planning problem and solve it in a market-oriented manner.

A Study on the Productivity Analysis and Restructuring of Information Technology Industry Using DEA/WINDOW (DEA/WINDOW 기법을 이용한 정보기술산업의 경영 효율성과 규모 경제성 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Dae-Yong;Lee, Cheong-Ho
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.17-40
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    • 2000
  • This study aims at proposing a direction of improving the efficiency in Korean information technology(IT) industry. In the face of re-engineering which has been done in most industries, it is very important to assess the validity of their restructuring or M&A based on the future efficiency. At first, by using the DEA/WINDOW, we will evaluate how the 30 firms are efficient for outputting their performance with respect to the profit realization and market ability. Then, in order to propose the direction of the efficiency improvement and suitable restructuring strategy, we will clarify how the efficiency of IT firms depends on their firm size. Finally, we will analyze their 'economy of scale' and also reveal how their economy of scale depends on the firm size based on return-to-scale(RTS).

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Asymmetric 45$^{\circ}$ Schiffman Phase Shifter (PS) (비대칭 45$^{\circ}$ Schiffman 위상 천이기)

  • 채동규;임문혁;김동현;윤기완
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.97-99
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    • 2003
  • Novel asymmetric 45$^{\circ}$ Schiffman phase shifter having l-coupling for 2.3GHz applications is presented along with measurement results. The proposed phase shifter with a Teflon substrate is fabricated in a smaller area and cost-effective way as compared to the conventional Schiffman phase shifter. In addition, the characteristics of the fabricated phase shifter is extracted and compared. The proposed phase shifter seems useful particularly for the future 2.3GHz wireless applications.

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