• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Foresight

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Emerging Practices in Foresight and Their Use in STI Policy

  • Daheim, Cornelia;Hirsch, Sven
    • STI Policy Review
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.24-53
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    • 2015
  • Foresight, a major methodological tool in the STI policy toolbox, has recently featured new directions in methodological development, becoming influenced by progress in information and communication technologies and online tools. However, no overview of these directions has been available so far. Based on a literature review, an interactive workshop, and an international expert survey as well as expert interviews, the research presented here attempts to shed light onto some of the relevant issues by providing a structured overview of recent changes in order to further the debate on the future directions of methodological development in foresight. The paper outlines four clusters of emerging approaches in foresight:Integrated qualitative and quantitative approaches, IT-based and automated foresight, experiential foresight including new forms of communication and interaction such as visualization and gaming, and open and crowd-sourced approaches. The benefits and challenges of the approaches known so far are categorized and summarized, and areas of potential use for each of the clusters in STI contexts are identified.

A Methodology for Future Technology Foresight based on Scenario through the Analysis of Future Customer Needs (미래사회의 고객니즈 분석을 통한 시나리오 기반의 미래 기술예측 방법론)

  • Kim, Young-Myoung;Kim, Min-Kwan;Lee, Jun-Suk;Han, Chang-Hee
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2011
  • Recently, the level of uncertainty in R&D investment for an enterprise has increased due to technological development and industrial changes. Accordingly it is necessary for an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies. But, the fact that the methodology used in predicting future technology is suitable for large project makes enterprise difficult to forecast the future technologies or trends. Thus, this study seeks for available methodology for future technology foresight from enterprise standpoint. The methodology proposed in this research is based on the scenario model, especially focused on the customer needs and future society change.

Future Technology Foresight for an Enterprise : Methodology and Case (기업의 미래기술예측을 위한 방법론 및 사례 연구)

  • Jeong Seok Yun;Nam Se Il;Hong Seok;Han Chang Hee
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.69-89
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    • 2006
  • Due to the technological developments and industrial changes , studying for the future has been attached great importance. According to the forthcoming ubiquitous computing environment or smart environment, it is necessary for a country and an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies . Although many countries have been doing the foresight, it is difficult for the enterprise to try future foresight activity, because the foresight activity needs lots of the costs and time for good results. Also, almost methodologies used in foresight are suitable for country level foresight projects. In this research, a methodology is developed for an enterprise to use easily, and a case based on the proposed methodology is presented. The proposed foresight methodology is developed based on the traditional forecasting methods, FAR, Future Wheel, and Scenario. Especially, the methodology focused on the customers of a company.

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Future Technological Foresight and Promising Emerging Technology Selection Frameworks based on Six Human Senses (인간의 6감각 기반의 미래 기술예측조사 및 유망기술 발굴 체제연구)

  • Cho, Ilgu;Lee, Jungmann
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2017
  • Technology foresight is the process which investigate long term science, technology, economic and social effects to derive strategic R&D and future promising technologies. This study shows that new systematic framework based on technology classifications of space and action in human society, future six senses was employed as a new research method for effective process of future technology foresight. In addition, to increase the acceptance, forecasting, and uniqueness of new technology, we derived major issues of future society and demand-base products and services through the new process of ICT future mega trend analysis, the findings and selections of future technology, and future scenario based on human six senses.

A Study on the Science and Technology Areas for the Third Technology Foresight of Korea (과학기술예측 대상기술 선정을 위한 주요 기술영역의 조사연구)

  • 정근화;고대승;이정근;손석호;변도영
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.110-126
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    • 2002
  • This study reviews and compares the selection procedures for science and technology topics to predict mid- and long-term trends in science and technology development in Korea, Japan, and the United Kingdom. It then identifies science and technology topics and future technologies for the third science and technology foresight of Korea. In Japan and the United Kingdom, non-technological topics that reflect socioeconomic needs are also select-ed along with technological ones. This study provides the following policy implications to enhance reliability and effectiveness of the third science and technology foresight of Korea. First, selection of science and technology topics should coincide with the national goal, taking into account development trends in science and technology and socioeconomic needs. Second, the current prediction methodologies such as "delphi" do not fully consider future uncertainties in science and technology development. A scenario method is, for example, needed to present coherent pictures of alternative futures. finally, the third technology foresight should select and include topics that reflect domestic conditions and global trend in technological progress. This study suggests 117 topics for the third science and technology foresight.foresight.

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A Comparative Analysis of Technology Foresight Activities in Korea and Some OECD Countries (국내 . 외 기술포사이트 활동 비교분석)

  • 엄기용;박태웅;황호영
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2000
  • This paper compares technology foresight activities of Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Australia, and the Netherlands with those of Korea in terms of their motives and purposes, procedures and methods, and utilization of foresight results. From the comparison, it has been found that although the foresight programs were started from similar motives and purposes, different approaches were adopted from one another depending on the characteristics of national innovation systems, national S&T policy directions, and level of science and technology capabilities of the countries. On the basis of the lessons drawn from our study, some recommendations are made for future foresight activities in Korea: clarifying purposes of foresight activities, preparing utilization strategy at the planning stage, promoting participants' learning and methodological elaboration, and so forth. Implications for policy makers are also discussed.

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An Analysis on Dependence of Spectrum to Foresight on Future Wireless Industry (전파이용산업 전망 수단으로서 전파의존도 분석)

  • Park, Seok-Ji;Park, Duk-Kyu
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.23 no.8
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    • pp.934-941
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    • 2012
  • This paper has examined the concept of dependence of spectrum to foresight on future wireless industry. For this, we classified the wireless industry and had a survey on the dependence of spectrum of the wireless industry by experts interview. We had foresighted the trend and changes of future market of wireless industry using survey data. We also had analyzed on factors of growth and level of development of wireless industry.

A Study on the Improvement of the Policy Utilization of Technology Foresight Using a Scenario : Renewable Energy Scenario (시나리오를 이용한 과학기술예측조사의 정책 활용도 제고에 관한 연구 : 신재생에너지 시나리오)

  • Yim, Hyun;Han, Jong-Min;Son, Seok-Ho;Hwang, Ki-Ha
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.53-74
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    • 2010
  • The creation and acceptance of new technologies has been speeding up dramatically in modern times. There are also significant uncertainties about the future shape of markets, governance and social values that will have an important impact on organizations and their capacity to meet their objectives. These rapid technological and social change and uncertainties make the upsurge of interest in technology foresight, giving rise to its emergence as a global concept and policy tool. A wide range of future methods are available for technology foresight. Selection of methods will depend upon several factors, most notably available and the time financial resources, and the objectives of the exercise. Although Delphi has been widely used for many years, scenario becomes very popular in recent years. The use of scenarios can take better account of the complexity and unpredictability of the economic, social and political environments. Scenarios tell the stories describing paths to different futures, which help organizations make better decisions today. In this study, the scenario method was employed to draw the images of the future of renewable energy. Renewable energy grows dramatically in recent years. However, there is still considerable uncertainty with regard to the potential of renewable energy due to environment regulation, energy costs, and political and economic developments in the main supplier countries for oil and natural gas. Scenario can help us to identify the risks and opportunities when we develop the renewable energy, and to prepare for them. The scenario method is expected to be more utilized in the national technology foresight.

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A study on developing information and communications technology roadmap through statistical meta analysis (통계적 메타분석을 응용한 미래기술개발로드맵 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Young-Sang;Park, Jeong-Seok;Jeong, Nae-Yang;Park, Chan-Keun;Heo, Tae-Young
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.98-107
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    • 2008
  • As the information and communications market goes more uncertain, foresight activities becomes more important. A number of foresight activities, such as trend analysis, have been used to predict customer needs. However previous studies tend to lack objectivity and systematization. In this study, we suggest a meta analysis methodology which combines both top-down and bottom-up approach in order to systematize the analysis process. Secondly, we applied this approach to ICT market to identify essential future technologies. Based on the result from the meta analysis, we have constructed the future technology roadmap.

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A study on developing information and communications technology roadmap through statistical meta analysis (통계적 메타분석을 통한 미래기술개발로드맵 도출에 관한 연구)

  • Yu, Yeong-Sang;Park, Jeong-Seok;Jeong, Nae-Yang;Park, Chan-Geun;Heo, Tae-Yeong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2008.10b
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    • pp.104-112
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    • 2008
  • As the information and communications market goes more uncertain, foresight activities becomes more important. A number of foresight activities, such as trend analysis, have been used to predict customer needs. However previous studies tend to lack objectivity and systematization. In this study, we suggest a meta analysis methodology which combines both top-down and bottom-up approach in order to systematize the analysis process. Secondly, we applied this approach to ICT market to identify essential future technologies. Based on the result from the meta analysis, we have constructed the future technology roadmap.

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