• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Failure Rate

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Development of Outage Data Management System to Calculate the Probability for KEPCO Transmission Systems (한전계통의 송전망 고장확률 산정을 위한 상정고장 DB 관리시스텀(ezCas) 개발)

  • Cha S. T.;Jeon D. H.;Kim T. K.;Jeon M. R.;Choo J. B.;Kim J. O.;Lee S .H
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • summer
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    • pp.88-90
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    • 2004
  • Data are a critical utility asset. Collecting correct data on site leads to accurate information. Data, when gathered with foresight & properly formatted, are useful to both existing database and easily transferable to newer, more comprehensive historical outage data. However, when investigating data items options, the task, can be an arduous one, often requiring the efforts of entire committees. This paper firstly discusses the KEPCO's past 10 years of historical outage data which include meterological data, and also by several elements of the National Weather Service, failure rate, outage duration, and probability classification, etc. Then, these collected data are automatically stored in an Outage Data Management System (ODMS), which allows for easy access and display. ODMS has a straight-forward and easy-to-use interface. It lets you to navigate through modules very easily and allows insertion, deletion or editing of data. In particular, this will further provide the KEPCO that not only helps with probabilistic security assessment but also provides a platform for future development of Probability Estimation Program (PEP).

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Site Suitability Assessment for Joint Forest Management(JFM) - a Geospatial Approach

  • Jayakumar, S.;Ramachandran, A.;Bhaskaran, G.;Heo, Joon;Kim, Woo-Sun
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.23 no.5
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    • pp.473-481
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    • 2007
  • Joint Forest Management(JFM) is a concept of developing partnerships between fringe forest user groups and the Forest Department(FD) on the basis of mutual trust and jointly defined roles and responsibilities with regard to forest protection and development. In India, JFM was started during 1992 and it was implemented in many states. However success rate of JFM activity was not promising. Though there are many factors attributed to the failures, one of the main factors is the JFM site. This paper deals with the significant ground works to be done before planning for JFM using recent technologies such as remote sensing(RS) and Geographic Information System(GIS). Also it deals with the advantages of weighted overlay analysis in selecting suitable sites for JFM taking into consideration the various criteria. As a result of weighted overlay analysis, there were four types of suitability classes viz., less, moderate, highly and un-suitable. The moderately suitable class occupied maximum area(13209.64 ha) than less and highly suitable classes. If JFM is implemented on the suitability area, then the failure could be avoided in the future.

Characterising the dynamic seals used in absorber rod drive mechanisms in Indian FBR

  • Kaushal, Nihal;Patri, Sudheer;Kumar, R. Suresh;Meikandamurthy, C.;Sreedhar, B.K.;Murugan, S.;Raghupathy, S.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.10
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    • pp.3438-3448
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    • 2021
  • Dynamic seals are one of the critical components of Absorber Rod Drive Mechanism of Fast Breeder Reactors, requiring separate experimental development. Their significance can't be overemphasized considering that the availability and re-usability of Control Rod Drive Mechanisms of Fast Breeder Test Reactor is governed by the failure rate of dynamic seals (bellows). For prototype and subsequent Fast Breeder Reactors in India, choice of the dynamic seal is changed to an in-house designed & developed labyrinth type V-ring seal. The present work is related to the numerical investigations carried out to gain insights into the sealing mechanism and the thermal behaviour of these seals. The results indicate that the seal geometry is very important for obtaining optimum performance. By changing the geometry of the present seal, performance enhancement by more than 50% in important indices is obtained. Further, the results point out that caution shall be exercised when the seal material & its operating temperature are changed. Also, the numerical model developed in this study will be useful for developing more robust dynamic seals in future.

The reason of cracking in bottom gallery of SefidRud Buttress Dam and earthquake and post earthquake performance

  • Mirzabozorg, Hasan;Ghaemian, Mohsen;Roohezamin, Amirhossein
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.103-124
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    • 2019
  • Present study concerns the safety evaluation of SefidRud dam's block No. 18 regarding probable crack propagation in the foundation gallery under a MCE record. Accordingly, a 3D finite element model of the block in companion with the reservoir and the foundation is modeled. All the associated thermal and structural parameters are derived via calibration with the records of thermometers and pendulums installed inside the dam body. The origination of the cracks and their whereabouts are determined by primary thermal and static analyses and through a linear dynamic analysis the potential failure zone and their extent and level are studied. The foundation gallery is the most probable zone among the other intensive tensile stress area to compromise the dam stability. Therefore, the nonlinear analysis of this risky region is inevitable. The results depict the permissible expansion of the cracks inside the gallery even under another future earthquake in MCE level. As a consequence, the general dam performance is assessed safe in spite of the seepage flow rate growth from the gallery fractures.

Random Early Beacon Broadcast (REB2) for Cooperative Vehicle Safety Applications (차량안전 응용을 위한 임의 조기 비컨방송)

  • Jeong, Han-You;Nguyen, Hoa-Hung
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1017-1021
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    • 2020
  • In the V2X communications, each vehicle periodically broadcasts a message, called a beacon, so that its neighbor vehicles can accurately predict the near-future positions of the sending vehicle. In particular, the mobility-adaptive beacon broadcast (MAB2) scheme keeps the tracking error of a sending vehicle below a fixed threshold within a few consecutive beacon losses. In this paper, we present a random-early beacon broadcast (REB2) scheme that addresses the beacon aging problem of the MAB2 scheme. The simulation results show that, for a neighbor vehicle within 100 m distance, the tracking failure probability of REB2 scheme can be reduced to less than 1/10 of that of MAB2 scheme.

On the Establishment of LSTM-based Predictive Maintenance Platform to Secure The Operational Reliability of ICT/Cold-Chain Unmanned Storage

  • Sunwoo Hwang;Youngmin Kim
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.221-232
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    • 2023
  • Recently, due to the expansion of the logistics industry, demand for logistics automation equipment is increasing. The modern logistics industry is a high-tech industry that combines various technologies. In general, as various technologies are grafted, the complexity of the system increases, and the occurrence rate of defects and failures also increases. As such, it is time for a predictive maintenance model specialized for logistics automation equipment. In this paper, in order to secure the operational reliability of the ICT/Cold-Chain Unmanned Storage, a predictive maintenance system was implemented based on the LSTM model. In this paper, a server for data management, such as collection and monitoring, and an analysis server that notifies the monitoring server through data-based failure and defect analysis are separately distinguished. The predictive maintenance platform presented in this paper works by collecting data and receiving data based on RabbitMQ, loading data in an InMemory method using Redis, and managing snapshot data DB in real time. The predictive maintenance platform can contribute to securing reliability by identifying potential failures and defects that may occur in the operation of the ICT/Cold-Chain Unmanned Storage in the future.

Epidemiologic and Clinical Comparisons of Three Measles Outbreaks in Korea(1989~2001) (국내에서 1989년부터 2001년 사이에 세 번 돌발 유행한 홍역의 역학 및 임상적 비교)

  • Yoon, Ju-Yun;Lee, Kyung-Yil;Kang, Jin-Han
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.223-228
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : We evaluated and compared clinical and laboratory characteristics of patients with measles in three epidemics(1989~90, 1993~94, and 2000~01) in Daejeon, Korea. Methods : Retrospective analyses were performed using medical records of 520 patients with measles at the Catholic University of Korea, Daejeon St. Mary's Hospital during three epidemics. We divided the subjects into three groups, i.e., those who admitted during 1989~1990(group I, 116 patients), those during 1993~1994(group II, 127 patients), and those during 2000~2001(group III, 277 patients). We compared clinical, demographic and laboratory characteristics among these 3 groups. Results : In age distribution, ratios of under 2 years of age in three groups were 61%, 58% and 57%, respectively with no statistical differences. However there are differences in age distribution above 2 years of age, as 21% in 2~5 years of group I, 28% in 6~9 years of group II, and 21% above 10 years of group III. No statistical differences were present between 3 groups in the male to female ratio, MMR vaccination rate in above 2 years of age, duration of fever, incidence of hepatitis. Hospitalization days(P=0.019) and rate of complications(P=0.012) were longer and higher in group I than in group III. Conclusion : In three epidemics, the second peak age group(except 0~1 year) of children above 2 years of age who had mostly received MMR vaccination showed a trend for increased age with increasing time(statistical difference). This result suggest that secondary vaccine failure may have a role in each epidemics. So, if measles outbreaks is happened in the future, we will have consideration in this aspect.

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The Stability and Characteristic Analysis of Cut Slope Behavior using Real-time Monitoring System (상시 계측시스템을 이용한 붕괴 절토사면 거동 특성 분석 및 안정성 해석)

  • Baek, Yong;Koo, Ho-Bon;Jang, Ki-Tae;Yoo, Byung-Sun;Bae, Gyu-Jin
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2004
  • The failure of cut slopes frequently occurs particularly during the thawing season and the rain season in summer. This study interpreted data collected from site to which a real-monitoring system was applied in order to analyze the causes of ground behaviors and to forecast future slope failure. As for research methods, this study analyzed the size and mechanism of failure by integrating the results of field surveys and measurements. Furthermore, it analyzed data transmitted by the monitoring system installed in the a result, three times of ground displacement occurred as well as a number of partial tension cracks. The cut slope composed of sandstone and siltstone started its initial behavior as a result of torrential downpour and the loss of support of the substructure. For quantitative analysis of the characteristics of ground behavior, this study measured 5 lateral lines. According to the result of the measurement, displacement happened little in the section to which countermeasure had been applied, but displacement of maximum 400mm happened in the section to which countermeasure had not bee applied. The analysis of data on displacement and rainfall suggested a close relationship between ground behavior and rainfall. According to the result of stability interpretation along with the change of ground saturation, stability rate appeared to be less than 1.0 when ground saturation is over 55%. Although the current trend of ground behavior is at a stable stage falling within the range of tolerance, it is considered necessary to continue monitoring and data analysis because ground displacement is highly possible with the change of temperature during the winter.

Estimating the Cost Savings Due to the Effect of Kremezin in Delaying the Initiation of Dialysis Treatments among Patients with Chronic Renal Failure (크레메진의 투석도입 지연효과에 따른 진행성 신부전증환자의 비용감소분 추계)

  • Cho, Woo-Hyun;Lee, Sun-Mi;Kim, Hyung-Jong;Lee, Ho-Yong;Woo, Tae-Wook;Kang, Hye-Young
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.149-158
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    • 2006
  • Objectives : We wanted to evaluate the economic value of a pharmaceutical product, Kremezin, for treating patients with chronic renal failure (CRF) by estimating the amount of cost savings due to its effect for delaying the initiation of dialysis treatments. Methods : We defined a conventional treatment for CRF accompanied by Kremezin therapy as 'the treatment group' and only conventional treatment as 'the alternative group.' The types of costs included were direct medical and nonmedical costs and costs of productivity loss. The information on the effect of Kremezin was obtained from the results of earlier clinical studies. Cost information was derived from the administrative data for 20 hemodialysis and 20 peritoneal dialysis patients from one tertiary care hospital, and also from the administrative data of 10 hemodialysis patients from one free-standing dialysis center. Per-capita cost savings resulting from Kremezin therapy were separately estimated for the cases with delay for the onset of hemodialysis and the cases with immediate performance of peritoneal dialysis. By computing the weighted average for the cases of hemodialysis and peritoneal dialysis, the expected per-capita cost savings of a patient with CRF was obtained. Using a discount rate of 5%, future cost savings were converted to the present value. Results : The present value of cumulative cost savings per patient with CRF from the societal perspective would be $18,555,000{\sim}29,410,000$ Won or $72,104,000{\sim}112,523,000$ Won if Kremezin delays the initiation of dialysis by 1 or 4 years. Conclusions : The estimated amount of cost savings resulting from treating CRF patients with Kremezin confirms that its effect for delaying the onset of dialysis treatments has a considerable economic value.

Assessing Risks and Categorizing Root Causes of Demolition Construction using the QFD-FMEA Approach (QFD-FMEA를 이용한 해체공사의 위험평가와 근본원인의 분류 방법)

  • Yoo, Donguk;Lim, Nam-Gi;Chun, Jae-Youl;Cho, Jaeho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.417-428
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    • 2023
  • The demolition of domestic infrastructures mirrors other significant construction initiatives in presenting a markedly high accident rate. A comprehensive investigation into the origins of such accidents is crucial for the prevention of future incidents. Upon detailed inspection, the causes of demolition construction accidents are multifarious, encompassing unsafe worker behavior, hazardous conditions, psychological and physical states, and site management deficiencies. While statistics relating to demolition construction accidents are consistently collated and reported, there exists an exigent need for a more foundational cause categorization system based on accident type. Drawing from Heinrich's Domino Theory, this study classifies the origins of accidents(unsafe behavior, unsafe conditions) and human errors(human factors) as per the type of accidents experienced during demolition construction. In this study, a three-step model of QFD-FMEA(Quality Function Deployment - Failure Mode Effect Analysis) is employed to systematically categorize accident causes according to the types of accidents that occur during demolition construction. The QFD-FMEA method offers a technique for cause classification at each stage of the demolition process, including direct causes(unsafe behavior, unsafe environment), and human errors(human factors) through a tri-stage process. The results of this accident cause classification can serve as safety knowledge and reference checklists for accident prevention efforts.