• Title/Summary/Keyword: Future Failure Rate

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A Determination and application of a future failure rate for LTAM strategies Development on Nuclear Turbines (원자력터빈의 LTAM 전략개발을 위한 미래고장률 결정 및 적용)

  • Shin, Hye-Young;Yun, Eun-Sub
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2008.11b
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    • pp.2845-2849
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    • 2008
  • Long Term Asset Management(LTAM) means a plan developed by using LCM(Life Cycle Management) process for optimum life cycle management of significant plant assets at each plant across the fleet. As a part of development of LTAM Strategies on nuclear turbines, a method so as to determine the future failure rates for low pressure turbine facilities at a nuclear plant was studied and developed by using both plant specific and industry-wide performance data. INPO's EPIX data were analyzed and some failure rate evaluation values considering preventive maintenance practices were calculated by using EPRI's PM Basis software. As the result, failure rate functions applicable to a priori and a posteriori replacement of low pressure turbines at a nuclear plant were developed and utilized in an assessment of economics of LCM alternatives on the nuclear turbine facilities in the respects of 40-year and 60-year operation bases.

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Burn-in Models: Recent Issues, Developments and Future Topics

  • Cha, Ji-Hwan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.871-880
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    • 2009
  • Recently, there has been much development on burn-in models in reliability area. Especially, the previous burn-in models have been extended to more general cases. For example, (i) burn-in procedures for repairable systems have been developed (ii) an extended assumption on the failure rate of the system has been proposed and (iii) a stochastic model for burn-in procedure in accelerated environment has been developed. In this paper, recent extensions and advances in burn-in models are introduced and some issues to be considered in the future study are discussed.

A Study on the Prediction of Failure Rate of Airforce OO Guided Missile Based on Field Failure Data (야전운용제원에 기반한 공군 OO유도탄 고장률 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Cheonkyu;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.428-434
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    • 2020
  • The one-shot weapon system is destroyed after only one mission. So, the system requires high reliability. Guided missiles are one-shot weapon systems that have to be analyzed by storage reliability since they spend most of their life in storage. The analysis results depend on the model and the ratio of correct censored data. This study was conducted to propose a method to more accurately predict the future failure rate of Air force guided missiles. In the proposed method, the failure rate is predicted by both MTTF (Mean Time To Failure) and MTBF (Mean Time Between Failure) models and the model with a smaller error from the real failure rate is selected. Next, with the selected model, the ratio of correct censored data is selected to minimize the error between the predicted failure rate and the real failure rate. Based on real field data, the comparative result is determined and the result shows that the proposed sampling rate can predict the future failure rate more accurately.

A Study on the Optimal Sampling for Predicting Failure Rate of One-Shot Weapon Systems (원샷 무기체계 고장률 예측을 위한 최적 샘플링 방안 연구)

  • Ahn, Joo Han;Ma, Jungmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.366-372
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    • 2020
  • The Army's rocket missile is a one-shot weapon system, which is produced and used for only one mission, and requires high reliability. While reliability analysis with failure data can result in underestimation of the life distribution, reliability analysis with all the non-failure data can result in overestimation of the life distribution. Under or overestimation of the life distribution can lead to cost increase by early disposal or complete observation of all rocket missiles. In order to overcome this problem, the Army suggests the guideline of the number of samples from non-failure data for reliability analysis with failure data. However, the currently used sampling method can generate errors for predicting the failure rate. To solve this problem, this study proposes a new sampling procedure for predicting a future failure rate using non-failure data. The comparison test between the currently used sampling method and the proposed sampling method is conducted and the result shows that the proposed sampling method can predict the future failure rate more accurately.

Statistical Life Expectancy Calculation of MV Cables and Application Methods (중전압 전선의 통계적 수명예측 계산과 응용 방법)

  • Chong-Eun, Cho;On-You, Lee;Sang-Bong, Kim;Kang-Sik, Kim
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.61-68
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    • 2022
  • In this paper, the change history of various types of MV (Medium Voltage) cables was investigated. In addition, the statistical life expectancy of each type was calculated by using the operation data and the failure data. For cut-off year, 10 years was applied, and realistically applicable statistical life expectancy was calculated by correcting the cause of failure entered by mistake. The life expectancy of FR-CNCO-W was calculated as 51.2 years, CNCV-W 38.1 years, and CNCV 31.4 years and the overall average is 33.8 years. Currently, the life expectancy of TR CNCV-W is 29.4 years, but it is estimated that the lifespan will be extended if failure data is accumulated. As a result, it is expected that life expectancy results can be applied to Asset Management System (AMS) in the future.

The Effect of Perceived Justice on Customer Satisfaction and Repuchase Intention in the Discount Stores Service Recovery (할인점 서비스 회복과정의 공정성 지각이 고객만족과 재구매 의도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Yong-han;Bae, Mu-eun
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.23-42
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    • 2005
  • The service offer expectation and the desire of customers to a large-sized rate influence store also increase as a result of such environmental change. the counter where research of a book was upgraded from differentiation pursuit by competition between business condition in business condition in the case of the domestic rate influence store which has put the focus on service strengthening The work shrine which cannot reach here the competition predominance in the domestic market it will be hard coming to secure, when environmental change of inside large-sized rate influence store industry is taken into consideration The research which tried to receive customer service failure recovery carried out actual proof analysis in the influence to which fair nature lateness of a customer attains to the re-purchase intention to this store of customer satisfaction and future by service recovery process for an object in the customer who held service failure recovery experience in the domestic large-sized rate influence store.

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The Designs for Prediction of Future Reliability Using the Stochastic Reliabilit

  • Oh, Chung-Hwan;Kim, Bok-Mahn
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.131-139
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    • 1993
  • The newly proposed model of the future reliability results in earlier fault-fixes having a greater effect than the fault which make the greatest contribution to the overall failure rate tend to show themselves earlier, and so are fixed earlier. The suggested model allows a variety of reliability measures to be calculated. Predictions of total execution time(debugging time) is to achieve a target reliability. This model could also apply to computer-hardware reliability growth resulting from the elimination of design error and fault.

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The Direction of Power Quality Analysis Technology (전기품질 진단기술의 방향)

  • Kang, Chang-Won
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2005.05b
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    • pp.16-18
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    • 2005
  • Becoming more and more diversified and complicated, power quality management has focused on the electricity-failure duration(including the numbers), the appropriate rate of voltage(average voltage during 30 minutes), the stability rate of frequency etc. as a basic goal value. And recently the focus is moving into the instantaneous minute interruption factors such as voltage & current harmonics, surge occurring frequency, instantaneous voltage variation, voltage unbalance, instantaneous electricity failure, flicker etc. by the development of electricity & electronics and communication equipments, which had not been so big problems before. This paper will address the flow of analysis technology and forecast the desirable direction of power quality analysis technology in the future.

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Degradation characteristics of pumps in nuclear power plants (원전 펌프의 성능저하 특성)

  • Lee, D.H.;Park, S.G.;Hong, S.D.;Lee, B.H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2008.04a
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    • pp.593-598
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    • 2008
  • In the present study, degradation characteristics of pumps in nuclear power plants were investigated to provide the information of degradation mechanism and stressors. The failure records of pumps for the periods 2000 to 2006 on INPO(Institute of Nuclear Power Operations) EPIX(Equipment Performance and Information Exchange System) DB were reviewed. The 1,834 failure records reveal that the critical areas of pump failures are bearing, mechanical seal, gasket/o-ring, shaft, impeller, coupling and packing. Based on the failure rate of critical areas, the important degradation mechanism and stressors were determined. Additionally, the relationship between degradation mechanism and stressors such as wear was examined. Finally, the monitoring parameters related to degradation and stressors were discussed for the future development of degradation evaluation and prognosis technology of pumps.

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