• STI Policy Review
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.24-53
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• 2015

Foresight, a major methodological tool in the STI policy toolbox, has recently featured new directions in methodological development, becoming influenced by progress in information and communication technologies and online tools. However, no overview of these directions has been available so far. Based on a literature review, an interactive workshop, and an international expert survey as well as expert interviews, the research presented here attempts to shed light onto some of the relevant issues by providing a structured overview of recent changes in order to further the debate on the future directions of methodological development in foresight. The paper outlines four clusters of emerging approaches in foresight:Integrated qualitative and quantitative approaches, IT-based and automated foresight, experiential foresight including new forms of communication and interaction such as visualization and gaming, and open and crowd-sourced approaches. The benefits and challenges of the approaches known so far are categorized and summarized, and areas of potential use for each of the clusters in STI contexts are identified.

• Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.39-49
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• 2010

This paper tries to identify emerging defense technology using S&T Text Mining. As a national agenda, there has been much effort to build S&T information systems including NTIS and DTiMS that enable researchers, policy makers, or field users to analyze technological changes and promote the best policy practices for efficient workflow, knowledge sharing, strategy development, or institutional competitiveness. In this paper, the S&T Text Mining application to unmanned combat technology using INSPEC DB is empirically illustrated and shows that it is a feasible approach to identify emerging defense technology as well as the structure of knowledge network of the future technology candidates.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.65-82
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• 2015

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in finding core issues and analyzing emerging trends for the future. This represents efforts to devise national strategies and policies based on the selection of promising areas that can create economic and social added value. The existing studies, including those dedicated to the discovery of future promising fields, have mostly been dependent on qualitative research methods such as literature review and expert judgement. Deriving results from large amounts of information under this approach is both costly and time consuming. Efforts have been made to make up for the weaknesses of the conventional qualitative analysis approach designed to select key promising areas through discovery of future core issues and emerging trend analysis in various areas of academic research. There needs to be a paradigm shift in toward implementing qualitative research methods along with quantitative research methods like text mining in a mutually complementary manner. The change is to ensure objective and practical emerging trend analysis results based on large amounts of data. However, even such studies have had shortcoming related to their dependence on simple keywords for analysis, which makes it difficult to derive meaning from data. Besides, no study has been carried out so far to develop core issues and analyze emerging trends in special domains like the aviation industry. The change used to implement recent studies is being witnessed in various areas such as the steel industry, the information and communications technology industry, the construction industry in architectural engineering and so on. This study focused on retrieving aviation-related core issues and emerging trends from overall research papers pertaining to aviation through text mining, which is one of the big data analysis techniques. In this manner, the promising future areas for the air transport industry are selected based on objective data from aviation-related research papers. In order to compensate for the difficulties in grasping the meaning of single words in emerging trend analysis at keyword levels, this study will adopt topic analysis, which is a technique used to find out general themes latent in text document sets. The analysis will lead to the extraction of topics, which represent keyword sets, thereby discovering core issues and conducting emerging trend analysis. Based on the issues, it identified aviation-related research trends and selected the promising areas for the future. Research on core issue retrieval and emerging trend analysis for the aviation industry based on big data analysis is still in its incipient stages. So, the analysis targets for this study are restricted to data from aviation-related research papers. However, it has significance in that it prepared a quantitative analysis model for continuously monitoring the derived core issues and presenting directions regarding the areas with good prospects for the future. In the future, the scope is slated to expand to cover relevant domestic or international news articles and bidding information as well, thus increasing the reliability of analysis results. On the basis of the topic analysis results, core issues for the aviation industry will be determined. Then, emerging trend analysis for the issues will be implemented by year in order to identify the changes they undergo in time series. Through these procedures, this study aims to prepare a system for developing key promising areas for the future aviation industry as well as for ensuring rapid response. Additionally, the promising areas selected based on the aforementioned results and the analysis of pertinent policy research reports will be compared with the areas in which the actual government investments are made. The results from this comparative analysis are expected to make useful reference materials for future policy development and budget establishment.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.231-238
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• 2008

With the development of methodologies, there are also the researches for the concrete item selection for selecting the future emerging researches and technologies. In this paper, we use scientometrics for that purpose in the sectors of construction and transportation. In our scientometric analysis, we use Scopus database, top 1% cited papers, bibliographic coupling, cosine coefficient, and hierarchical clustering and then carry additional experts verification on our results. We try to show the detailed process of scientometric analysis and its possibility as objective methodologies to select the future emerging researches and technologies.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.1 no.2
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• pp.245-261
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• 1998

This study aims to describe the overall aspects of future technologies in Korea based on the new taxonomy of technology foresight ; Theme, Area and Paradigm. This taxonomy is designed to overcome and supplement several studies on technology foresights which are judged not to capture the whole aspects of future technologies. Future technologies in Korea will be influenced by the Information and Communication Technology Paradigm over 20-30 years, and by the Biotechnology Paradigm after that period. Expansion of researches in electronics, information and communication is noticeable features in engineering. The application of biotechnology technique and health/environment technologies are emerging in bioscience area. Also there appear new areas related to the trends of engineering and bioscience in natural science. Current research patterns focusing physics, chemistry and engineering in Korea should be changed to those of the advanced countries which emphasize bioscience. Time lag to the world frontier is over 5-6 years, but the lag is expected to be reduced. The shortage of manpower and research funds are pointed as the biggest barrier for the realization of future technologies.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.77-97
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• 2011

Information technologies are changing rapidly in recent years because of the latest IT development and technology convergence. Therefore, government tries to choose technologies required to achieve mid and long-term strategic technical development target and present technology road map. We established national defense scientific technology plan process for weapon systems. However, national defense IT plan process has not been established yet. Accordingly, in this paper, we suggested outlook of future national defense informationization through national defense Information Technology environment analysis, and discovered future potential Information Technology for national defense through methodology of investigation and analysis and suggested Defense IT Planning development.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.40 no.6
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• pp.745-758
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• 2018

A wide range of studies in various disciplines has focused on the Internet of Things (IoT) and cyber-physical systems (CPS). However, it is necessary to summarize the current status and to establish future directions because each study has its own individual goals independent of the completion of all IoT applications. The absence of a comprehensive understanding of IoT and CPS has disrupted an efficient resource allocation. To assess changes in the knowledge structure and emerging technologies, this study explores the dynamic research trends in IoT by analyzing bibliographic data. We retrieved 54,237 keywords in 12,600 IoT studies from the Scopus database, and conducted keyword frequency, co-occurrence, and growth-rate analyses. The analysis results reveal how IoT technologies have been developed and how they are connected to each other. We also show that such technologies have diverged and converged simultaneously, and that the emerging keywords of trust, smart home, cloud, authentication, context-aware, and big data have been extracted. We also unveil that the CPS is directly involved in network, security, management, cloud, big data, system, industry, architecture, and the Internet.

• Proceedings of the Technology Innovation Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.153-173
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• 2000

This study is focused on measuring levels of science and technology aspect of ten strategic items in korea to serve as a guidance for the government R&D policy-making, and provide appropriate information for promoting the national R&D programs. The survey of the precise technology level for study applies functional and technical parameters. Functional parameters are used for measuring technology level of the specification and performance of emerging items such as 256M DRAM, TFT-LCD ect. in the present and / or near future; technical parameters, the element / core technologies on emerging items. The study suggests that the result of the survey should be applied for strategic technology planning to narrow the technology gap and draw the criteria for resource allocation in national R&D programs.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.19 no.3
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• pp.1-29
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• 2011

Korean government built "2040 Science and Technology Future Vision" in order to show positive future scenarios and suggest a long-term guideline for a progress in science and technology. The S&T Future Vision was built based on an analysis of global megatrends and a prospect of domestic social change. After building S&T Future Vision, the "Government R&E Strategy"s was established as a follow-up action plan. The Government R&D Strategy consists of lists of future emerging technologies for future leadership, government R&D investment status and investment portfolio plans. Exploring future emerging technologies aggressively and making a governmental R&D strategic policy are requirements for national competitiveness, leadership in the world. Therefore search and selection for future emerging technologies is getting more and more important recently. Generally qualitative methodologies have been used such as expert-panel discussion method and portfolio analysis with expert valuation method in order to explore future technologies. These experts-based qualitative methodologies are well defined but lacking in some objectivity because size of expert-panels has limitations. We suggest a quantitative methodology, science mapping method to compensate this shortcoming in this study. There is another limitation related governmental R&D strategy which is that general R&D portfolios are static until a point of technology realization. We also propose a dynamic R&D investment portfolio which present different portfolios at a intermediate point and a point of technology realization. We expect this try with science mapping method and a dynamic R&D portfolio could strengthen strategic aspect of government R&D policy.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.123-127
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• 2024

In the early 20th century, Walter Benjamin analyzed the changes in the value of traditional art forms under the industrial era and the changes in the aesthetic attitude of the masses. A century later, in the contemporary multi-art world, the traditional medium of shelf painting is once again experiencing a similar situation as the last century. Emerging technology display modes such as digital virtual reality and digital immersive experience can achieve digital reproduction of paintings on shelves and reach a certain level of performance, which once again shocks the public's aesthetic perception. This paper attempts to illustrate the outstanding characteristics of the new art form after digital reconstruction by exploring the transformation and sublimation of digital technology to shelf painting. We predict that art research on future reality and augmented reality according to the artificial intelligence era will be conducted in depth in the future.