• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.48 no.1
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• pp.96-109
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• 2024

Background: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government initiated the Billion Tree Tsunami Afforestation Project including regeneration and afforestation approaches. An effort was made to assess the distribution characteristics of afforested species under present and future climatic scenarios using ecological niche modelling. For sustainable forest management, landscape ecology can play a significant role. A significant change in the potential distribution of tree species is expected globally with changing climate. Ecological niche modeling provides the valuable information about the current and future distribution of species that can play crucial role in deciding the potential sites for afforestation which can be used by government institutes for afforestation programs. In this context, the potential distribution of 8 tree species, Cedrus deodara, Dalbergia sissoo, Juglans regia, Pinus wallichiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Senegalia modesta, Populus ciliata, and Vachellia nilotica was modeled. Results: Maxent species distribution model was used to predict current and future distribution of tree species using bioclimatic variables along with soil type and elevation. Future climate scenarios, shared socio-economic pathways (SSP)2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 were considered for the years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100. The model predicted high risk of decreasing potential distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios for years 2041-2060 and 2081-2100, respectively. Recent afforestation conservation sites of these 8 tree species do not fall within their predicted potential habitat for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. Conclusions: Each tree species responded independently in terms of its potential habitat to future climatic conditions. Cedrus deodara and P. ciliata are predicted to migrate to higher altitude towards north in present and future climate scenarios. Habitat of D. sissoo, P. wallichiana, J. regia, and V. nilotica is practiced to be declined in future climate scenarios. Eucalyptus camaldulensis is expected to be expanded its suitability area in future with eastward shift. Senegalia modesta habitat increased in the middle of the century but decreased afterwards in later half of the century. The changing and shifting forests create challenges for sustainable landscapes. Therefore, the study is an attempt to provide management tools for monitoring the climate change-driven shifting of forest landscapes.

• Journal of Ecology and Environment
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• v.41 no.11
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• pp.310-317
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• 2017

Background: Many studies about climate-related range shift of plants have focused on understanding the relationship between climatic factors and plant distributions. However, consideration of adaptation factors, such as dispersal and plant physiological processes, is necessary for a more accurate prediction. This study predicted the future distribution of marlberry (Ardisia japonica), a warm-adapted evergreen broadleaved shrub, under climate change in relation to the dispersal ability that is determined by elapsed time for the first seed production. Results: We introduced climate change data under four representative concentration pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) scenarios from five different global circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the future distributions (2041~2060) of marlberry. Using these 20 different climate data, ensemble forecasts were produced by averaging the future distributions of marlberry in order to minimize the model uncertainties. Then, a dispersal-limited function was applied to the ensemble forecast in order to exam the impact of dispersal capacity on future marlberry distributions. In the dispersal-limited function, elapsed time for the first seed production and possible dispersal distances define the dispersal capacity. The results showed that the current suitable habitats of marlberry expanded toward central coast and southern inland area from the current southern and mid-eastern coast area in Korea. However, given the dispersal-limited function, this experiment showed lower expansions to the central coast area and southern inland area. Conclusions: This study well explains the importance of dispersal capacity in the prediction of future marlberry distribution and can be used as basic information in understanding the climate change effects on the future distributions of Ardisia japonica.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.1
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• pp.49-66
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• 2024

Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

• Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2008

According to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Working Group III, climate change is already in progress around the world, and it is necessary to execute mitigation in order to minimize adverse impacts. This paper suggests future climate change needs, employing IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) to predict temperature rises over the next 100 years. This information can be used to develop sustainable architecture applications for energy efficient buildings and renewable energy. Such climate changes could also affected the resent supplies of renewable energy sources. This paper discusses one recent Fourth Assessment Report of IPPC (Mitigation of Climate Change) and the Hadley Centre climate simulation of relevant data series for South Korea.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.60 no.5
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• pp.69-80
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• 2018

This study investigated climate change influences over crop water requirement (CWR) and irrigation water requirement (IWR) of the wheat-rice cropping system of Upper Chenab Canal (UCC) command in Punjab Province, Pakistan. PRECIS simulated delta-change climate projections under the A1B scenario were used to project future climate during two-time slices: 2030s (2021-2050) and 2060s (2051-2080) against baseline climatology (1980-2010). CROPWAT model was used to simulate future CWRs and IWRs of the crops. Projections suggested that future climate of the study area would be much hotter than the baseline period with minor rainfall increments. The probable temperature rise increased CWRs and IWRs for both the crops. Wheat CWR was more sensitive to climate-induced temperature variations than rice. However, projected winter/wheat seasonal rainfall increments were satisfactorily higher to compensate for the elevated wheat CWRs; but predicted increments in summer/rice seasonal rainfalls were not enough to complement change rate of the rice CWRs. Thus, predicted wheat IWRs displayed a marginal and rice IWRs displayed a substantial rise. This suggested that future wheat production might withstand the climatic influences by end of the 2030s, but would not sustain the 2060s climatic conditions; whereas, the rice might not be able to bear the future climate-change impacts even by end of the 2030s. In conclusion, the temperature during the winter season and rainfall during the summer season were important climate variables controlling water requirements and crop production in the study area.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.61-72
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• 2015

In this study, we have investigated monthly changes in temperature extremes in South Korea for the past (1921~2010) and the future (2011~2100). We used seven stations' (Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, Mokpo) data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the past. For the future we used the closest grid point values to observations from the RCP8.5 scenario of 1 km resolution. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)'s climate extreme indices were employed to quantify the characteristics of temperature extremes change. Temperature extreme indices in summer have increased while those in winter have decreased in the past. The extreme indices are expected to change more rapidly in the future than in the past. The number of frost days (FD) is projected to decrease in the future, and the occurrence period will be shortened by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century (2071~2100) compared to the present (1981~2010). The number of hot days (HD) is projected to increase in the future, and the occurrence period is projected to lengthen by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century compared to the present. The annual highest temperature and its fluctuation is expected to increase. Accordingly, the heat damage is also expected to increase. The result of this study can be used as an information on damage prevention measures due to temperature extreme events.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.4
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.10 no.6
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• pp.89-97
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• 2010

In this study, the impact of climate change on the spatio-temporal behavior of extreme drought events is investigated by comparing drought severity-area-duration curves under present and future climate conditions. In our climate-change impact experiments, the future climate is based on two GCMs(CGCM3.1-T63 and CSIRO-MK3.0). As a result, in the case of CGCM3.1-T63 future drought events are similar to the present, but in the case of CSIRO-MK3.0 future drought risk is likely to increase. Such results indicate that a climate change vulnerability assessment for present water resources supply system is urgent.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.101 no.3
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• pp.509-516
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• 2012

In this research, it was intended to examine the vulnerability of Pinus rigida to climate changes, a major planting species in Korea. For this purpose, the distribution of Pinus rigida and its changes caused by climate changes were estimated based on the 'A1B' climate change scenario suggested by IPCC. Current distribution of Pinus rigida was analyzed by using the $4^{th}$Forest Type Map and its potential distribution in the recent year (2000), the near future (2050) and the further future (2100) were estimated by analyzing the optimized ranges of three climate indices - warmth index(WI), minimum temperature index of the coldest month (MTCI) and precipitation effectiveness index(PEI). The results showed that the estimated potential distribution of Pinus rigida declines to 56% in the near future(2050) and 15% in the further future (2100). This significant decline was found in most provinces in Korea. However, in Kangwon province where the average elevation is higher than other provinces, the area of potential distribution of Pinus rigida increases in the near future and the further future. Also the result indicated that the potential distribution of Pinus rigida migrates to higher elevation. The potential distributions estimated in this research have relatively high accuracy with consideration of classification accuracy (44.75%) and prediction probability (62.56%).

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.65 no.5
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• pp.25-35
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• 2023

The estuary reservoir is a major source of agricultural water in Korea; for effective and sustainable water resource management of the estuary reservoir, it is crucial to comprehensively consider various water resource factors, including water supply, flood, and pollutant management, and analyze future runoff changes in consideration of environmental changes such as climate change. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of future climate change on the runoff characteristics of an estuary reservoir watershed. Climate data on future Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios were derived from two Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was used to simulate past and future long-term runoff of the Ganwol estuary reservoir watershed. The findings showed that as the impact of climate change intensified, the average annual runoff in the future period was higher in the order of SSP5, SSP3, SSP1, and SSP2, and the ratio of runoff in July decreased while the ratio of runoff in October increased. Moreover, in terms of river flow regime, the SSP2 scenario was found to be the most advantageous and the SSP3 scenario was the most disadvantageous. The findings of this study can be used as basic data for developing sustainable water resource management plans and can be applied to estuary reservoir models to predict future environmental changes in estuary reservoirs.