• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.143-159
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• 2011

Recently, the level of uncertainty in R&D investment for an enterprise has increased due to technological development and industrial changes. Accordingly it is necessary for an enterprise to forecast the future or foresight the future technologies. But, the fact that the methodology used in predicting future technology is suitable for large project makes enterprise difficult to forecast the future technologies or trends. Thus, this study seeks for available methodology for future technology foresight from enterprise standpoint. The methodology proposed in this research is based on the scenario model, especially focused on the customer needs and future society change.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.153-168
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• 2002

Korea's marine products trade is taking for phase that income exceeds export after 2000. According to external environment change of Korea and Japan fishery agreement and an import liberalization of marine products, import of live fish and fresh fish is increasing rapidly. This study investigates import view of Japan live fish and fresh fish. Live fish which is imported from Japan has red seabream and seabass, but it is in declining tendency because of the increase in import of cheaper croaker from the China. If see importer's trend, entry to import business of fresh fish is eased a little. If a circulation trend is seen, However, it is thought that a future import trend is influenced by economic trends of Japan and the grade of place-of-production development of a domestic trader. Circulation market outside is common and the district wholesale store has played the important role. The import view of Japanese live fish and a fresh fish will increase against the background of maintenance of domestic circulation organization, and upgrading of marine product consumption However, it is thought that a future import trend is influenced by economic trends of Japan and the grade of place-of-production development of a domestic trader.

• Current Industrial and Technological Trends in Aerospace
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.143-153
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• 2008

This paper describes the current research trend and future development direction of autonomous flight of the aircraft. The autonomous flight means that aircraft control system recognize and cope with the emergency situation confronted during the flight by itself. Current research for autonomous flight technology is mainly performed for the application to unmanned air vehicle. Considering advent of future air traffic management system and increasing demand of the unmanned air vehicle application, however, autonomous flight technology required to be combined with future air traffic management system. In this paper, the current air traffic management system and anticipating change in future air traffic management system was investigated and research activities of autonomous flight technology was described as well as future prospect.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.65-82
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• 2015

Recently, there has been a surge of interest in finding core issues and analyzing emerging trends for the future. This represents efforts to devise national strategies and policies based on the selection of promising areas that can create economic and social added value. The existing studies, including those dedicated to the discovery of future promising fields, have mostly been dependent on qualitative research methods such as literature review and expert judgement. Deriving results from large amounts of information under this approach is both costly and time consuming. Efforts have been made to make up for the weaknesses of the conventional qualitative analysis approach designed to select key promising areas through discovery of future core issues and emerging trend analysis in various areas of academic research. There needs to be a paradigm shift in toward implementing qualitative research methods along with quantitative research methods like text mining in a mutually complementary manner. The change is to ensure objective and practical emerging trend analysis results based on large amounts of data. However, even such studies have had shortcoming related to their dependence on simple keywords for analysis, which makes it difficult to derive meaning from data. Besides, no study has been carried out so far to develop core issues and analyze emerging trends in special domains like the aviation industry. The change used to implement recent studies is being witnessed in various areas such as the steel industry, the information and communications technology industry, the construction industry in architectural engineering and so on. This study focused on retrieving aviation-related core issues and emerging trends from overall research papers pertaining to aviation through text mining, which is one of the big data analysis techniques. In this manner, the promising future areas for the air transport industry are selected based on objective data from aviation-related research papers. In order to compensate for the difficulties in grasping the meaning of single words in emerging trend analysis at keyword levels, this study will adopt topic analysis, which is a technique used to find out general themes latent in text document sets. The analysis will lead to the extraction of topics, which represent keyword sets, thereby discovering core issues and conducting emerging trend analysis. Based on the issues, it identified aviation-related research trends and selected the promising areas for the future. Research on core issue retrieval and emerging trend analysis for the aviation industry based on big data analysis is still in its incipient stages. So, the analysis targets for this study are restricted to data from aviation-related research papers. However, it has significance in that it prepared a quantitative analysis model for continuously monitoring the derived core issues and presenting directions regarding the areas with good prospects for the future. In the future, the scope is slated to expand to cover relevant domestic or international news articles and bidding information as well, thus increasing the reliability of analysis results. On the basis of the topic analysis results, core issues for the aviation industry will be determined. Then, emerging trend analysis for the issues will be implemented by year in order to identify the changes they undergo in time series. Through these procedures, this study aims to prepare a system for developing key promising areas for the future aviation industry as well as for ensuring rapid response. Additionally, the promising areas selected based on the aforementioned results and the analysis of pertinent policy research reports will be compared with the areas in which the actual government investments are made. The results from this comparative analysis are expected to make useful reference materials for future policy development and budget establishment.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.822-833
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• 2010

Temperature increase due to climate changes causes change of water temperature in rivers which results in change of water quality etc. and the change of river ecosystem has a great impact on human life. Analyzing the impact of current climate changes on air and water temperature is an important thing in adapting to the climate changes. This study examined the effect of climate changes through analyzing air temperature trend for Nakdong river basin and analyzed the elasticity of air-water temperature to understand the effect of climate changes on water temperature. For analysis air temperature trend, collecting air temperature data from the National Weather Service on main points in Nakdong river basin, and resampling them at the units of year, season and month, used as data for air temperature trend analysis. Analyzing for elasticity of air-water temperature, the data were collected by the Water Environment Information system for water temperature, while air temperature data were collected at the National Weather Service point nearest in the water temperature point. And using the results of trend analysis and elasticity analysis, the effect of climate changes on water temperature was examined estimating future water temperature in 20 years and 50 years after. It is judged that analysis on mutual impact between factors such as heat budget, precipitation and evapotranspiration on river water temperature affected by climate changes and river water temperature is necessary.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.135-150
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• 2010

In the age of digital convergence, it is expected that quality of life of human beings can be improved by converged devices and services. Researches concerning change of buying patterns and consumer behaviors in these contexts have to be progressed actively. To investigate future trend of consumer behaviors, we used focus group interview for Qualitative approach in the first step and then conducted questionnaire survey for experts in order to get validity and feasibility of research results. As result of research we suggested eight propositions by FGI for 20s target consumers. Additionally, on the basis of qualitative research, by questionnaire survey for 22 experts two perspectives of positive and negative views In future trends were proposed. Results can give lots of Implications and research motivations to academia, practices and workers in public policies who have interests in change of consumer behaviors, thinking styles, and life style under digital convergent environment.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.21-27
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• 2012

This study aims at finding the trend changes of spatial configuration in housing units of Korean apartments in the 2000s. Among the housing units in the apartments built by large construction companies, we have selected ones with small and regular sizes, $59m^2$ and $84m^2$ respectively, and investigated the number of bays, the location of wet zone and the spatial flexibility in the housing units selected for analysis. In conclusion, the number of bays in the housing unit has gradually increased, after allowing for the structural change of the balcony in the legal. It is estimated that the trend has came from the intent to increase the numbers of the externally exposed surfaces of the balcony, ensure a good view, lighting, ventilation and spatial flexibility. The location of wet zone, water-needed space such as a bathroom or a kitchen, has changed in the direction to facilitate the expansion and modification of space. Variable range of space has gradually expanded by using the balcony and wet zone as much as possible. In order to configure more effectively spaces in housing environments, the future study should be implemented to develop tools for realizing sustainable housing environment at the levels of not only the housing unit. but also the entire building, housing site, and city.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.75-84
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• 2011

The objective of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic impacts of climate and land use changes in a rural small watershed. HadCM3 (Hadley Centre Coupled Model, ver.3) A2 scenario and LARS-WG (Long Ashton Research Station - Weather Generator) were used to generate future climatic data. Future land use data were also generated by the CA-Markov (Cellular Automata-Markov) method. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to evaluate hydrologic impacts. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated with stream flow measured at the Baran watershed in Korea. The SWAT model simulation results agreed well with observed values during the calibration and validation periods. In this study, hydrologic impacts were analyzed according to three scenarios: future climate change (Scenario I), future land use change (Scenario II), and both future climate and land use changes (Scenario III). For Scenario I, the comparison results between a 30-year baseline period (1997~2004) and a future 30-year period (2011~2040) indicated that the total runoff, surface runoff, lateral subsurface runoff, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration increased as precipitation and temperature for the future 30-year period increased. The monthly variation analysis results showed that the monthly runoff for all months except September increased compared to the baseline period. For Scenario II, both the total and surface runoff increased as the built-up area, including the impervious surface, increased, while the groundwater discharge and evapotranspiration decreased. The monthly variation analysis results indicated that the total runoff increased in the summer season, when the precipitation was concentrated. In Scenario III, the results showed a similar trend to that of Scenario II. The monthly runoff for all months except October increased compared to the baseline period.

• Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.30-41
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• 2016

The amount of groundwater related data is drastically increasing domestically from various sources since 2000. To justify the more expansive continuation of the data acquisition and to derive valuable implications from the data, continued employments of sophisticated and state-of-the-arts statistical tools in the analyses and predictions are important issue. In the present study, we employed a well established machine learning technique of Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model in the trend analyses of groundwater level for the long-term change. The major benefit of GPR model is that the model provide not only the future predictions but also the associated uncertainty. In the study, the long-term predictions of groundwater level from the stations of National Groundwater Monitoring Network located within Han River Basin were exemplified as prediction cases based on the GPR model. In addition, a few types of groundwater change patterns were delineated (i.e., increasing, decreasing, and no trend) on the basis of the statistics acquired from GPR analyses. From the study, it was found that the majority of the monitoring stations has decreasing trend while small portion shows increasing or no trend. To further analyze the causes of the trend, the corresponding precipitation data were jointly analyzed by the same method (i.e., GPR). Based on the analyses, the major cause of decreasing trend of groundwater level is attributed to reduction of precipitation rate whereas a few of the stations show weak relationship between the pattern of groundwater level changes and precipitation.