• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• 제26권7호
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• pp.127-132
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• 2021

This paper applies a machine learning model to forecasting freight rates in dry bulk and tanker markets with wavelet decomposition and empirical mode decomposition because they can refect both information scattered in the time and frequency domain. The decomposition with wavelet is outperformed for the dry bulk market, and EMD is the more proper model in the tanker market. This result provides market players with a practical short-term forecasting method. This study contributes to expanding a variety of predictive methodologies for one of the highly volatile markets. Furthermore, the proposed model is expected to improve the quality of decision-making in spot freight trading, which is the most frequent transaction in the shipping industry.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.7-18
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• 2001

This study represents a first attempt in Korea to develop the simultaneous freight supply-demand model which considers the relationship between freight supply and demand. As the existing study was limited in one area, or the supply and the demand was separated and assumed not to affect each other, this study take it into consideration the fact that the demand affects supply and simultaneously vice versa. This approach allows us to diagnose a policy carried on and helps us to make a resonable alternative for the effectiveness of freight transportation system. To find a relationship between them, we use a method of econometrics. a structural equation theory and two stage least-squares(2SLS) estimation technique, to get rid of bias which involves two successive applications of OLS. Based on the domestic freight data, this study consider as explanatory variables a number of population(P), industry(IN), the amount of production of the mining and manufacturing industries(MMI), the rate of the effectiveness of freight capacity(LE) and the distance of an empty carriage operation(VC). This study describes well the simultaneous process of freight supply-demand system in that the increase of VC from the decrease of VC raises the cargo capacity and cargo capacity also augments VC. By the way. it is analyzed that the increment of VC due to the increase of the cargo capacity is larger than the reduction of VC owing to the increase of the quantify of goods. Therefore an alternative policy is needed in a short and long run point of view. That is to say, to promote the effectiveness of the freight transportation system, a short term supply control and a long run logistic infrastructure are urgent based on the restoration of market economy by successive deregulation. So we are able to conclude that gradual deregulation is more desirable to build effective freight market.

• Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.869-881
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• 2016

Purpose: The objective of this study is to verify the economic validation of quality management integrated train freight car by analyzing economic evaluation indicators such as benefit and cost, net present value, and inter rate of return. Methods: First, we itemize benefit and cost field by reviewing literatures; Benefit consists of 1)Safety, 2)Operation, and 3)Maintenance; Cost consists of 1)Set-up fee, 2)Wireless internet fee, and 3)Cloud storage using fee. Second, based on these estimated values, we conduct an economic evaluation analysis. Among them, benefit and cost, net present value, and internal rate of return are selected. Results: As a result, all estimated values are highly over criterion of economic validity($$B/C{\geq}_-1$$, $$NPV{\geq}_-0$$, $$IRR{\geq}_-R$$); 1)benefit over cost ratio is 28.22, 2)Net present value is 8,121.66million KRW, and 3)Internal rate of return value is 2272%. Conclusion: The findings of this study will help making a decision when train industry adopts IoT technology for improving the effectiveness.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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• 제4권2호
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• pp.45-79
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• 1980

The aim of this paper is to analyze the mechanics of price formation in the tramp shipping. For the purpose of this study, the main characteristics of tramp freight rates and the market is examined, and a brief examination of the nature ofthe costs of operation is given which are essential for the understanding of the functioning of shipping firms as well as for the understanding of developments in the tramp freight market. The demand and supply relationships in the market is also analysed in detail. Tramp shipping is an industry that has a market which functions under conditions that are not dissimilar to the theoretical model of perfect competition. However, it does notmean that tramp shipping market is a perfectly competitive market. It is apparent that this realworld competitive system has its imperfections, which means that the market for tramp shipping is near to being a perfectly competitive market on an internaitonal scale and it is freight are therefore subjext to the laws of supply and demand. In theory, the minimum freight rate in the short term is that at which the lowest cost vessels will lay-up in preference to operating, and is equal to the variable costs minus lay-up costs; and this would imply that in all times except those of full employment for ships there is a tendency for newer low-cost, and, probably, faster vessels to be driving the older high-cost vessels in the breaker's yards. In this case, shipowners may be reluctant to lay-up their ships becasue of obligations to crews, or because they would lose credibility with shippers or financiers, or simply because of lost prestige. Mainly, however, the decision is made on strictly economic grounds. When, for example, the total operating costs minus the likely freight earnings are greater than the cost of taking the ship out of service, maintaining it, and recommissioning it, then a ship may be considered for laying-up; shipowners will, in other words, run the ships at freight earnings below operating costs by as much as the cost of laying them up. As described above, the freight rates fixed on the tramp shipping market are subject to the laws of supply and demand. In other words, the basic properties of supply and demand are of significance so far as price or rate fluctuations in the tramp freight market are concerned. In connection with the same of the demand for tramp shipping services, the following points should be brone in mind: (a) That the magnitude of demand for sea transport of dry cargoes in general and for tramp shipping services in particular is increasing in the long run. (b) That owning to external factors, the demand for tramp shipping services is capable of varying sharphy at a given going of time. (c) The demad for the industry's services tends to be price inelastic in the short run. On the other hand the demand for the services offered by the individual shipping firm tends as a rule to be infinitely price elastic. In the meantime, the properties of the supply of the tramp shipping facilities are that it cannot expand or contract in the short run. Also, that in the long run there is a time-lag between entrepreneurs' decision to expand their fleets and the actual time of delivery of the new vessels. Thus, supply is inelastic and not capable of responding to demand and price changes at a given period of time. In conclusion, it can be safely stated that short-run changes in freight rates are a direct result of variations in the magnitude of demand for tramp shipping facilities, whilest the average level of freight rates is brought down to relatively low levels over prolonged periods of time.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.394-399
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• 2004

Increased cumulative running times of railroad vehicle brings out such degradation as wear and fatigue. It don't adapt corrective maintenance which repairs a poor pan after a trouble but use preventive maintenance which fixes a bad part before a trouble. There were a few researches for preventive maintenance such as inspect affairs and facilities management. They couldn't estimate the operation reliability on railroad vehicle. Therefore, this study proposes the preventive maintenance procedure that predict repair period of end beam for uncovered freight car using reliability function and instantaneous failure rate on the basis of fatigue test and load history data.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• 제29권3호
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• pp.495-502
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• 2005

Increased cumulative running times of railroad vehicle brings out such degradation as wear and fatigue. It doesn't adapt corrective maintenance which repairs a poor part after a trouble but use preventive maintenance which fixes a bad part before a trouble. There were a few researches for preventive maintenance such as inspect affairs and facilities management. They couldn't estimate the operation reliability on railroad vehicle. Therefore, this study proposes the preventive maintenance procedure that predict repair period of end beam fur uncovered freight car using reliability function and instantaneous failure rate on the basis of fatigue test and load history data.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 한국컴퓨터정보학회 2021년도 제63차 동계학술대회논문집 29권1호
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• pp.325-326
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• 2021

LNG는 환경규제에 따라 화석에너지에서 친환경 재생에너지로 전환되는데 중요한 역할을 하는 에너지원이다. UN산하 세계해사기구(IMO)의 MARPOL협약에 따라 선박 황산화물 배출가스규제로 LNG추진 선박에 대한 수요가 증가되고 있을 뿐만 아니라 미국의 쉐일혁명으로 LNG를 수출함에 따라 공급의 변화가 급격하게 이뤄지고 있다. 과거 국가 주도의 프로젝트 성격이 강한 LNG 운송시장은 장기정기용선계약이 대부분이었으나 수요와 공급시장의 급격한 변화로 스팟시장의 중요성이 커지고 있다. 따라서 본 논문은 LNG 운송시장에서 시장참여자들의 스팟거래에 합리적인 의사결정이 이뤄지도록 과학적인 예측방법을 제시하고자 한다. LNG 스팟운임 예측에 기계학습모델 중 인공신경망 모델을 적용할 것이며 기존의 시계열분석 방법인 ARIMA모델과 비교하여 본문에서 제시된 모델의 예측성능의 우수성을 확인하였다. 본 논문은 LNG 스팟운임을 다룬 최초의 연구로서 학문적인 차별성이 기대된다.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.135-144
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• 2021

In Korea, the parcel delivery service is showing a high growth rate every year thanks to the activation of e-commerce, but the courier unit price continues to drop. Due to the low cost of parcel delivery, there is a need for improvement to normalize courier rates due to deterioration in profitability for couriers, deterioration in service for consumers, and overwork and accidents for workers. In this study, a rational rate system model and a systematic approach were presented. The study method modeled the chargeable weight by reflecting the voulumatirc weight and revenue ton by the volume and weight of the cargo, and presented a new parcel freight charge model based on the cost of delivery. In addition, a rate-determining support system was developed that can be easily, conveniently and reasonably determined on-site. In the demonstration, the rate difference was determined by relying on weight rather than volume, and 63.5% for personal courier and 40% for B2C courier were found to be inadequate. This study could be used as an alternative to solving side effects and problems at the delivery site, in the urgent need for research on ways to improve delivery prices.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.141-156
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• 2023

This study aims to improve understanding of freight movement, crucial for logistics facility investment and policy making. It addresses the limitations of traditional freight truck traffic data, aggregated only at city and county levels, by developing a new methodology. This method uses trip chain data for more detailed, facility-level analysis of freight truck movements. It employs DTG (Digital Tachograph) data to identify individual truck visit locations and creates H3 system-based polygons to represent these visits spatially. The study also involves an algorithm to dynamically determine the optimal spatial resolution of these polygons. Tested nationally, the approach resulted in polygons with 81.26% spatial fit and 14.8% error rate, offering insights into freight characteristics and enabling clustering based on traffic chain characteristics of freight trucks and visited facility types.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.181-190
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• 2018

The goal of this study is empirically to investigate the asymmetric relationship between two variables using the dry cargo freight rates and raw material price data from January 2012 to May 2018. First, we estimate the asymmetry of macroeconomic indicators of commodity prices by using a two - step threshold cointegration test. Second, the asymmetric relation test of the trade balance of existing commodity price changes is tested by bypassing to the high frequency dry cargo freight rate index. As a result of the estimation, in contrast to the existing linear analysis, each boundary value for the lower limit and the upper limit has different asymmetry. This implies that the period of fluctuation of the sudden residual that causes irregular rate of return fluctuations does not establish a long term equilibrium relationship between the raw material price and the dry cargo freight rate. Therefore, in order to consider the sudden price change in the analysis, it is necessary to include the band of inaction that controls the irregular volatility, which is consistent with the asymmetry hypothesis.