• 문화기술의 융합
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.245-255
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• 2024

본 연구에서는 중국의 한국과의 무역 재개의 다양한 시사점, 즉 무역 구조 재편, 무역 정책의 변화와 기업의 경쟁력에 미치는 영향, 양국이 무역 분쟁을 해결한 방법 등을 살펴볼 것이다. 우리는 역사적, 경제적 관점에서 중국과 한국 간 무역의 진화를 평가하고, 정책 변화가 기업의 전략을 어떻게 형성했는지 분석하며, 이러한 변화가 글로벌 경제에서 양국의 입지에 어떤 영향을 미쳤는지 논의할 것이다. 이 연구를 통해 지역 경제 협력과 글로벌 경제거버넌스에 대한 더 깊은 이해와 미래 정책 결정에 대한 통찰력을 제공하는 것을 목표로 한다.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.118-137
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• 2019

Purpose - As global trade disputes intensify and global trade uncertainty increases due to the prevailing trade protectionism all over the world, mega-FTAs such as the RCEP and CPTPP are suggested as strategic trade policy options for export-driven small open economies, such as Korea. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of Korea's mega-FTA participation and the induced implications for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We use a multi-region, multi-sector global CGE model, and investigate the different effects of both the US-China and US-EU trade wars on the relative changes in GDP, welfare, and trade under different trade policy regimes; (i) Korea does not participate in any mega-FTA, (ii) Korea participates in the RCEP, and (iii) Korea participates in the CPTPP. Findings - We show, among others, that though industrial effects might be largely varied, the overall enlarging of free trade zones through multilateral mega-FTA participation may contribute significantly to the macroeconomic soundness and stability of Korea, even when global trade protectionism prevails. Under RCEP and CPTPP trade regimes, Korea's GDP may increase even when the global trade environment deteriorates as trade wars occur and intensify between the US and China, or between the US and EU. It is also estimated that RCEP participation increases Korea's GDP, welfare (measured in equivalent variation), and total trade by 1.12%, $1.09 billion, and 2.54%, respectively, while CPTPP participation increases them by 0.19%, $0.92 billion, and 0.13%, respectively. Originality/value - Existing studies usually focus on the direct impacts of mega-FTA participation on macroeconomic variables such as GDP, welfare, and trade, and do not consider the possible buffer effects of a mega-FTA when the global trade environment worsens. In this paper, we analyze and quantify not only the direct impacts of RCEP and CPTPP on the main macroeconomic variables but also the possible buffer effects of the RCEP and CPTPP in the cases of the US-China and US-EU trade wars.

• 한국항해항만학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국항해항만학회 2006년도 International Symposium on GPS/GNSS Vol.1
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• pp.471-475
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• 2006

For years, Korea, China and Japan have been continuously increasing intra-trade. In addition, by concluding FTA (Free Trade Agreement) among Korea, Japan and China, the trade capacity will be increased. In this way, the increasing trade capacity will induce to change north-east Asian economy. This paper researches which method is more economical and efficient in the aspect of the transportation time and distance, after comparing the existing marine transportation network with new intermodal transportation network considering TKR.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제23권3호
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• pp.311-329
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• 2019

Since China's opening to international trade, the rapid growth of the country's export sector has been coupled by an intensification of migratory outflows of ethnic Chinese. The literature has already stressed the beneficial role of migration in enhancing bilateral trade. The present paper applies a gravity model in order to capture the impact of migration on Chinese exports for a relatively long period of time (1995-2017) where significant developments take place. We estimated four regressions, each of them confirming the positive network effects of migration for boosting export growth. Apart from the main finding, it appears that the role of institutional and geographical proximity can prove to be complementary for trade enhancement. The results finally suggest mixed effects due to the countries' import openness, indicating that China's free trade agreements acts as a substitute for smoothing trade competition from third countries.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.233-272
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• 2021

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, signed in November 2020, comes shortly after the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) entered into force and the US-China Trade War escalated. We use a computable general equilibrium model to assess the long-term effects of these three developments on income, trade, economic structure, factor returns and employment across the world, and especially in Asia-Pacific countries. The results suggest that RCEP could generate income gains that will be almost twice as large as those of the CPTPP, and that the two agreements together will largely offset the substantial negative effects of the US-China Trade War for the world as a whole. All three policy developments, but especially RCEP, will deepen East Asian production networks and will raise productivity and increase wages and employment in much of East Asia. At the sectoral level, regional trade in non-durable and durable manufactures will experience the most growth.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제24권3호
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• pp.237-252
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• 2020

This paper characterizes the optimal reciprocal trade policy in the environment of Melitz (2003) with firm productivity heterogeneity. In particular, without making parametric assumptions on firm productivity distribution, this paper derives the optimal degree of reciprocal tariff reductions that maximize the world welfare. A reciprocal import subsidy raises the industry productivity, lowering aggregate price; a reciprocal import tariff helps correct the markup distortion, increasing nominal income. With all the conflicting effects of import tariffs on welfare considered, the optimal degree of reciprocity in multilateral tariff reduction is shown to be free trade.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• 제25권6호
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• pp.1-19
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• 2021

Purpose - This paper aims at analyzing the functions and effectiveness of the cooperation agenda in Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), focusing on the cases of Asian countries. This paper estimates the contribution of this agenda to the sustainable development in Asia by providing the 'side payment' of the economic integration that encourages foreign investment and change in global value chains (GVC). Design/methodology - This study analyzes the functions of the cooperation chapter in FTAs by applying the cooperative game theory and reviewing the structures of the related FTAs. Also, as an empirical study, the existing FTA provisions and related development assistant programs in Asia are reviewed in this paper, especially focusing on the FTAs signed by Korea. Findings - Our main findings can be summarized as follows: The drawback of the economic integration, which would be the imbalanced economic benefit, can be redressed by the cooperation chapter in FTAs functioning as a 'side payment'. Indeed, as the examples of Korean FTAs show, more foreign investment and the GVC expansion in Asian countries have been encouraged thanks to the implementation of the cooperation chapters. Originality/value - This paper attempts to find how a legally binding agreement would influence the cooperation agenda in Asia which has never been analyzed despite the increasing number of so-called 'cooperation' chapters in the FTAs.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• 제18권2호
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• pp.39-59
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• 2011

Information Technology (IT) has been working as an engine of growth in Korea since early 1990's. For the next leap of Korean economy and to overcome worldwide financial crisis, Korea's IT industry needs to find a new breakthrough. In this viewpoint, we tried to empirically analyze the impact of Korea's IT trade on domestic industry. Since Korean government is trying to set up a few free trade agreements (FTA) with major trade partners, more accurate understanding of the impact of FTA is required to find the correct way to promote Korea's IT industry. We first looked at the current status of Korea's IT trade with major partners such as the US, Japan, and China to understand the competitiveness of Korea's IT industry. Having done this, we measured the impact of IT trade on domestic industry using Granger causality test. The results showed that the positive impact of trade is bigger on IT industry than on whole industry. Also, the impact of import turned out to be bigger than that of export. Among the major trade partner countries, the US’s and China's impacts are bigger than Japan's impact. Another notable thing is that IT product import from the US has especially big impact on domestic IT industry. Our findings may have certain implications to the FTA related policy.

• 디지털융복합연구
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.167-176
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• 2021

인천항의 성장을 지속시키고 항만배후단지와 연계된 발전을 추구하기 위해서는 자유무역지역의 지정이 시급히 필요하다. 본 연구는 인천항 자유무역지역 최적 후보지에 대한 입지평가와 정책적 시사점을 도출하는 것을 목적으로 하였으며, 요인 우선순위를 그룹별로 도출하여 비교했다. 본 연구에서는 언어학적 척도를 정량화하고 평가할 수 있는 CFPR(Consistent Fuzzy Preference Relation) 분석기법을 이용하였다. 인천항 자유무역지역의 입지를 평가한 결과, 인천신항 배후부지, 아암물류 2단지, 북항 배후단지, 경인항 배후단지 등 4개 후보지역 중 인천신항 배후부지가 가장 높은 점수를 받았다. 인천신항 배후부지는 정성적·정량적인 요인으로 구성된 총 8개의 평가요인 중 정성적인 요인 4개 모두에서 1위, 정량적 요인 1개 등 종합점수 1위로 인천항 자유무역지역 지정 최적 후보지로 평가되었다. 또한 그룹별 요인 중요도 비교에서는 그룹 1에서는 입주 기업 유치 가능성이 가장 높으며, 그룹 2는 단지 규모, 그리고 그룹 3에서도 입주 기업 유치 가능성이 가장 높은 중요도를 나타냈다. 본 연구는 자유무역지역 입지선정과 평가에 중요한 요인을 제시하였다는 시사점을 갖는다. 향후 연구에서는 연구 대상 확대 또는 각 집단의 이해관계를 반영한 요인선정등 세분화된 실증연구가 필요하다.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제40권6호
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• pp.485-494
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• 2016

본 연구는 한국과 싱가포르, 인도, 미국의 자유무역협정(FTA) 발효로 인한 양자간 교역증진효과를 통계적으로 비교 분석하고자 한다. 다수의 선행연구에서 양자간 교역 증대효과 추정시 활용된 중력모형(Gravity)을 기본 방법론으로 패널분석(Panel analysis)을 통해 한국과 FTA 발효국(싱가포르, 인도, 미국)을 효과집단으로, 미발효국은 통제집단으로 구분하여 총 20년의 기간을 설정하여 FTA 발효의 순수효과를 추정하였다. 자유무역협정의 교역증대효과 분석을 위해 우리나라와 FTA가 발효된 3개 국가(효과집단)와 2015년 기준 우리나라 벌크물동량 교역 상위 90%의 비중을 차지하는 27개 국가(통제집단)의 횡단면 및 시계열로 구성된 패널자료를 사용하였다. 분석 결과 FTA 발효는 우리나라 벌크물동량 증대에 기여한 것으로 나타났다. 특히 본 연구의 대상국가인 싱가포르, 인도, 미국과는 자유무역협정 발효로 인한 무역창출효과가 발생하였고 ASEAN 및 NAFTA+3의 경우 무역전환효과가 발생하였다. 한편 자유무역협정 이외의 GDP, 1인당 GDP 변수는 벌크물동량과 정(正)의 효과를 보이는 것으로 나타났으며, 거리 변수는 물동량과 부(負)의 효과를 보이는 것으로 분석되었다. 마지막으로 국가별 패널자료 분석 결과 하우스만 검정 및 LR검정을 시행하였으며, 고정효과모형이 임의효과모형보다 적합한 것으로 나타났다.