• Title/Summary/Keyword: Foundation Confidence

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TREATING UNCERTAINTIES IN A NUCLEAR SEISMIC PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT BY MEANS OF THE DEMPSTER-SHAFER THEORY OF EVIDENCE

  • Lo, Chung-Kung;Pedroni, N.;Zio, E.
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2014
  • The analyses carried out within the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessments (SPRAs) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) are affected by significant aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. These uncertainties have to be represented and quantified coherently with the data, information and knowledge available, to provide reasonable assurance that related decisions can be taken robustly and with confidence. The amount of data, information and knowledge available for seismic risk assessment is typically limited, so that the analysis must strongly rely on expert judgments. In this paper, a Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) framework for handling uncertainties in NPP SPRAs is proposed and applied to an example case study. The main contributions of this paper are two: (i) applying the complete DST framework to SPRA models, showing how to build the Dempster-Shafer structures of the uncertainty parameters based on industry generic data, and (ii) embedding Bayesian updating based on plant specific data into the framework. The results of the application to a case study show that the approach is feasible and effective in (i) describing and jointly propagating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in SPRA models and (ii) providing 'conservative' bounds on the safety quantities of interest (i.e. Core Damage Frequency, CDF) that reflect the (limited) state of knowledge of the experts about the system of interest.

How to Recover From the Great Recession: The Case of a Two-Sector Small Open Economy with Traded and Non-Traded Capital

  • Jeon, Jong-Kyou
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.161-206
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    • 2013
  • Since the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been suffering from the Great Recession characterized by high and persistent unemployment as well as drastic fall in asset prices. Real business cycle theory or new-Keynesian economics which has been the dominant paradigm in macroeconomics for the last four decades is unable to explain the high and persistent unemployment during the Great Recession. This implies that the economics of Keynes should be taken seriously again as a tool to explain the Great Recession. Farmer (2012) proposes a new way of interpreting the economics of Keynes by providing it with a solid micro-foundation based on labor markets with search. According to Farmer (2012), aggregate economic activity independently depends on the long-term self-fulfilling expectations about the stock prices. As a consequence, the government or the central bank should implement a policy that influences the public's confidence about the stock market. For an open economy like the Korean economy, it is not only stock price but also the price of asset such as house that matters more for the aggregate economic activity. Households in the Korean economy hold more than 70 percent of their wealth in the form of real estate asset, especially housing asset. This makes the public's confidence about the future prices of houses even more important in explaining the business cycles of the Korean economy. Policymakers should implement policies to improve the confidence of households about the housing market to recover from the recession caused by a fall in house prices. Little theoretical work has been done in explaining fluctuations in the aggregate economic activity from the point of house prices. This paper develops a small open economy model with traded and non-traded capital based on Farmer (2012) and shows that the aggregate economic activity also independently depends on the households' self-fulfilling expectations about the future prices of non-traded asset such as houses.

Design and Implementation of Space Adaptive Autonomous Driving Air Purifying Robot for Green Smart Schools (그린 스마트 스쿨을 위한 공간 적응형 자율주행 공기청정 로봇 설계 및 구현)

  • Oh, Seokju;Lee, Jaehyeong;Lee, Chaegyu
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.77-82
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    • 2022
  • The effect of indoor air pollution on the human body is greater and more dangerous than outdoor air pollution. In general, a person stays indoors for a long time, and in a closed room, pollutants are continuously accumulated and the polluted air is better delivered to the lungs. Especially in the case of young children, it is very sensitive to indoor air and it is fatal. In addition, methods to reduce indoor air pollution, which cannot be ventilated with more frequent indoor activities and continuously increasing external fine dust due to Covid 19, are becoming more important. In order to improve the problems of the existing autonomous driving air purifying robot, this paper divided the map and Upper Confidence bounds applied to Trees(UCT) based algorithm to solve the problem of the autonomous driving robot not sterilizing a specific area or staying in one space continuously, and the problem of children who are vulnerable to indoor air pollution. We propose a space-adaptive autonomous driving air purifying robot for a green smart school that can be improved.

Direction of Arms Control to Establish Foundation for Peaceful Reunification in Korean Peninsula (한반도 평화통일 기반구축을 위한 군비통제 추진방향)

  • Kim, Jae Chul
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.15 no.6_1
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    • pp.79-92
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    • 2015
  • It is required to expand area of inter-Korean economic cooperation, being limited to non-military field, to military field and then, to positively promote arms control in order to establish foundation for peaceful reunification in Korean peninsula. Reasons why arms control has not been promoted between South and North Korea in the meantime were such original factors as follows; (1) limit of confidence building between the South and the North, (2) functional limit of arms control itself, (3) institutional structural limit between the South and the North, (4) environmental limit at home and abroad. It is necessary to get out from existing frame and to seek a new paradigm in order to overcome above factors and to realize arms control between the South and the North. First, it is required to have prior political dialog at the South-North high-level talks in order to promote arms control and to exercise 'strategic flexibility' during negotiation and promotion process. For this, 'flexible reciprocity' has to be adopted in compliance with situation and conditions. Second, it is necessary to get out from existing principle of 'confidence building in advance and arms reduction later' but to seek the 'simultaneous driving principle of confidence building and arms reduction' as an eclectic approach. Namely, based on reasonable sufficiency, it is required to promote military confidence building and limited arms reduction in parallel, which is a lower level of arms control. Third, as an advisory body of Prime Minister's Office, it is necessary to install an organization exclusively responsible for arms control and to positively handle arms control issue from the standpoint of national policy strategy. If the South-North high-level talks take place, it is necessary to organize and operate 'South-North Joint Arms Control Promotion Board (tentative name)'. Fourth, it is required to exercise more active diplomatic competence in order to create national consensus on necessity of arms control for peaceful reunification and to form more favorable international environment. Especially, it is necessary to think about how to solve nuclear issue of North Korea together in collaboration with international society and how to maintain balance between ROK-US alliance and Sino-Korean cooperation relations.

A Study on the Experiences of Nurse Coroners (간호사 경력자의 검시관 체험 연구)

  • Han, Jin-Sook;Park, In-Sook
    • Journal of Korean Academy of Nursing
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.310-320
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    • 2008
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to describe the essential structure of the postmortem- examination experiences of nurse career coroners (forensic investigators), to have a profound understanding of their experiences, and ultimately to lay the foundation for nurses' entry into the field of forensic nursing. Methods: The subjects in this study were six coroners. After an in-depth interview from January to June 2007, the collected data were analyzed by Colaizzi as qualitative research. Results: Four categories emerged from seven theme clusters. The four categories were: attracted by being dubbed a stabilized public official, a sense of achievement due to having clarified false death, self-confidence after distinguishing the victim and the wrongdoer, eternal developmental potential is seen. Conclusion: It is expected that this study will provide useful information for nurses who are interested in becoming coroners. It will be helpful for career nurses to extend their nursing science into emerging fields like coroners and select a follow-up career.

Chinese Naval Power Build-up and Measures for Regional Maritime Cooperation (중국의 해군력 발전과 지역 해양안보 협력 방안)

  • Park, Chang-Hee
    • Strategy21
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    • s.40
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    • pp.162-189
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    • 2016
  • This research deals with the PLAN's capabilities and its implication for regional security, and suggests some measures for maritime security cooperation among regional states. China has began to focus its national strategy more on 'rising as a new maritime power' since the 18th Party Convention in November 2012. Chinese new strategy aims at building a strong navy, contributing economic prosperity and national security, and thus elevating its prestige in international society. Most of all, building a strong navy is the foremost task at this time, and that is why the PLAN has the priority for military modernization. Chinese new maritime strategy could cause naval arms race in East Asia and aggravate maritime territorial disputes among concerned parties. It is the time for regional states to discuss some measures to build confidence, such as arms control of naval weapons, establishment of multilateral maritime security mechanism, and foundation of regional security regime, thus enhancing regional maritime cooperation.

Developing the Measurement Model of Service Quality in the Public Sector (공공부문의 서비스품질 측정모형 개발)

  • Rha, Jun-Young;Rhee, Seung-Kyu
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.339-352
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    • 2007
  • Beyond SERVQUAL-based service quality research, we develop a measurement model of public service quality that would provide researchers and practitioners in the public sector with a foundation for systematic investigation and implementation. Firstly, we explore the attributes of public service quality that lead to customer satisfaction by using the critical incident technique (CIT). We identified four dimensions of public service qualities. We also found that the critical attributes of service quality differ according to the types of customers. Secondly, to achieve a high degree of empirical confidence, we conduct statistical tests and analyses on the classification scheme and on the attributes of service quality that we derived from the CIT analysis. Through these analyses, we could remove the redundancy among attributes and group the attributes into new constructs, which are mutually exclusive and exhaustive; we built a more sophisticated measurement model of service quality.

The Causal Relationship between the Acceptance Attitudes and the Expected Effects of Smart Work

  • Park, Kiho
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.151-163
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    • 2014
  • This paper explores the causal relationship between acceptance attitudes and expected effects of smart work. With the rapid development of smart technologies, lots of organizations try to innovate in the conventional working styles for maximizing organizational effectiveness and efficiency. Although many organizations wish to foster smart working environment, they don't have confidence in detailed action plans and effects from it. Therefore, this study that explores the causal relationship between acceptance attitudes and effects may have crucial meaning to organizations pursuing smart work. In this research empirically conducted by questionnaire survey, the acceptance attitudes as predictors and the expected effects of smart work as influenced variables were used. This research analyzed 118 collected data and multiple regression analysis. As a result of analysis, teleworking shows the positive relations to all of dependent variables. And others have a positive or negative influence on effects of smart work. Results of this study may give implications to organizations that want to implement smart work environment.

Family-Centered Care for Hospitalized Children: Concept Analysis (입원 아동의 가족중심돌봄 개념분석)

  • Jung, So Young;Tak, Young Ran
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.28-36
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: This paper is a report on the concept analysis of family-centered care for hospitalized children. Methods: The concept analysis approach of Walker and Avant was used. A search of multidisciplinary literature published between 1960 and 2016 was undertaken using the keyword 'family centered care' or 'family centered nursing' combined with hospitalized children. Attributes, antecedents, and consequences were inductively derived from the citations analyzed (n=19). Results: The attributes of family-centered care included (1) family respect, (2) collaboration, (3) family support, and (4) information sharing. These attributes are influenced by the 'willingness of family to participate', 'competency and willingness of staff,' and 'institution policy and system.' Additionally, family-centered care does significantly impact 'the health of the children', 'family empowerment' and 'work satisfaction and self-confidence of staff'. Conclusion: Family-centered care of hospitalized children as defined by the result of this study will contribute to the theoretical foundation for application in pediatric nursing practice.

Development of Prediction Model of Subcontract's Bidding-Ratio for Private Apartment Projects (민간 공동주택 하도급 낙찰률 예측모델 개발)

  • Jang, Ki-Suk;Koo, Kyo-Jin
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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    • 2021.11a
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    • pp.250-251
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    • 2021
  • A subcontract work order is the basis of the construction process and consists of the root and trunk of the construction industry. The construction process through a subcontract work order is an important element of project success, and it is the basic unit of creating profit in the construction industry. Therefore, correct analysis and forecasting of subcontract work orders allow correct estimation of construction cost and profit which is the foundation of corporate decision making. This study has started to provide predictions of subcontractor's bidding-ratio for decision-making. Since the actual project data has been used in this study, the contribution level of the model is highly expected in actual field. The statistical confidential level of adjusted decision coefficient is concluded low because of limited sample numbers. However, its accuracy and confidence level can be increased through increasing sample numbers, considering more variables, and studying of reducing error.

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