• Title/Summary/Keyword: Foreign Exchange Crisis

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A Grey Correlation Analysis Method for Relationship of the Overseas M&A and Business Growth of Commercial Banks

  • LIU, Xiaohong
    • Korean Journal of Artificial Intelligence
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.13-16
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    • 2019
  • While the Chinese banks have started the impact of foreign banks. At the same time, rising pressure on foreign exchange reserves and appreciation of the renminbi has prompted Chinese banks to go abroad and diversify their risks. The financial crisis of 2008 has caused the continued turbulence of the major financial markets around the world, and the valuation of foreign financial institutions has been drastically shrinking, providing opportunities for Chinese banks to carry out overseas M&A. Based on the overseas M&A status of Chinese commercial banks, this paper sums up the characteristics of the overseas M&A. Then taking a series of overseas M&A conducted by ICBC from 2006 to 2011 as an example, it analyzes the relationship between M&A and performance growth using grey incidence model. The test shows: there is a positive correlation between both overseas M&A and interest rate differential with performance growth of ICBC, and overseas M&A transactions role in promoting the performance growth is significantly higher than the interest rate differential.

The Origin and Characteristics of Daedeok Valley (대덕밸리의 기원과 성격)

  • 설성수
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2003
  • Daedeok Valley, located in the Daejon Metropolitan City, Korea, has around 1,000 start-ups. There is no comprehensive study for the valley except Seol et al.(2002), because the valley is a new one. There was no such valley four years ago, in 1998. This paper defines the spatial boundary, origins and characteristics of the valley. The core area of the valley is Daedeok Science Town. This valley is an outcome of so called the Venture Policy of DJ government and business restructuring after foreign exchange crisis of November, 1997.

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Analysis of Safety Management System between Inside and Outside County (국내외 안전관리제도 비교,분석)

  • Tae, Soon-Ho;Kim, Yong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.80-86
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    • 2002
  • To reduce the nation from facing increasing industrial disasters following the grave foreign exchange crisis in 1997, this thesis compared inside with outside of the current country safety manager system, presented way about introduction to comprehensive safety management measures.

Development and Evaluation of a Portfolio Selection Model and Investment Algorithm utilizing a Markov Chain in the Foreign Exchange Market (외환 시장에서 마코브 체인을 활용한 포트폴리오 선정 모형과 투자 알고리즘 개발 및 성과평가)

  • Choi, Jaeho;Jung, Jongbin;Kim, Seongmoon
    • Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • In this paper, we propose a portfolio selection model utilizing a Markov chain for investing in the foreign exchange market based on market forecasts and exchange rate movement predictions. The proposed model is utilized to compute optimum investment portfolio weights for investing in margin-based markets such as the FX margin market. We further present an objective investment algorithm for applying the proposed model in real-life investments. Empirical performance of the proposed model and investment algorithm is evaluated by conducting an experiment in the FX market consisting of the 7 most traded currency pairs, for a period of 9 years, from the beginning of 2005 to the end of 2013. We compare performance with 1) the Dollar Index, 2) a 1/N Portfolio that invests the equal amount in the N target assets, and 3) the Barclay BTOP FX Index. Performance is compared in terms of cumulated returns and Sharpe ratios. The results suggest that the proposed model outperforms all benchmarks during the period of our experiment, for both performance measures. Even when compared in terms of pre- and post-financial crisis, the proposed model outperformed all other benchmarks, showing that the model based on objective data and mathematical optimization achieves superior performance empirically.

Factors Contributing to Recommendation Intention of Foreign Tourists in Times of Crisis: A Moderated Moderation Analysis

  • Ko-Woon Kim;Seung-Gee Hong
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.42-59
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - As a leading source of foreign exchange and investment, tourism has grown in importance as a component of international trade. Accordingly, in recent decades much attention has been directed toward attracting foreign tourists and, in turn, positively affecting the recommendation intentions of foreign tourists. Despite such interests, there remains a dearth of empirical research on this issue. Moreover, prior research has focused primarily on the simple main effect of a certain factor on recommendation intentions. Therefore, the present study aims to (1) investigate the effect of overall satisfaction on the recommendation intentions of foreign tourists, and (2) examine the potential moderating effects of personal factors (i.e., age and destination image) on the association between overall satisfaction and recommendation intention. Design/methodology - Using a moderated moderation analysis of the data drawn from the 2018 International Visitor Survey conducted by the Korea Tourism Organization, this study proposes the three-way interaction effects of overall satisfaction, age, and destination image on recommendation intention. Findings - The findings of the study indicate that overall satisfaction is positively associated with recommendation intention and this relationship becomes stronger among younger tourists. The findings further indicate that the moderating effect of age on the relationship between overall satisfaction and recommendation intention depends on changes in the image of the destination. Specifically, the destination image exerts a positive moderating impact on the influence of age that moderates the overall satisfaction and recommendation intention relationship. Originality/value - Considering that the tourism economy has been severely affected by the current COVID-19 pandemic, this study contributes to a more accurate understanding of the factors affecting the recommendation intention, especially in times of crisis.

Dependence Structure of Korean Financial Markets Using Copula-GARCH Model

  • Kim, Woohwan
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.445-459
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    • 2014
  • This paper investigates the dependence structure of Korean financial markets (stock, foreign exchange (FX) rates and bond) using copula-GARCH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models. We examine GJR-GARCH with skewed elliptical distributions and four copulas (Gaussian, Student's t, Clayton and Gumbel) to model dependence among returns, and then employ DCC model to describe system-wide correlation dynamics. We analyze the daily returns of KOSPI, FX (WON/USD) and KRX bond index (Gross Price Index) from $2^{nd}$ May 2006 to $30^{th}$ June 2014 with 2,063 observations. Empirical result shows that there is significant asymmetry and fat-tail of individual return, and strong tail-dependence among returns, especially between KOSPI and FX returns, during the 2008 Global Financial Crisis period. Focused only on recent 30 months, we find that the correlation between stock and bond markets shows dramatic increase, and system-wide correlation wanders around zero, which possibly indicates market tranquility from a systemic perspective.

A Comparative Cohort Study on the Experiences of Job Loss and Job Seeking in Korea (생애주기에 따른 실직경험 및 구직활동에 관한 비교연구)

  • Yang, Sung-Eun
    • Korean Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.41-58
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study was to compare the job loss and job seeking experiences between middle-aged men and their younger cohort. Participants included 11 middle-aged unemployed men and nine younger unemployed men. The study adopted a phenomenological approach. In-depth individual interviews were carried out and the theme analysis was used to analyze the interview data. The results showed that the two cohorts experienced the macroeconomic crises, the foreign exchange crisis in 1997 and the global financial crisis in 2008, differently. Their experiences affected their attribution of the unemployment and job seeking process. They expressed ambivalence toward their family while dealing with social isolation from extrafamilial support. Most of the participants criticized government employment support policies and services.

A Neural Network Model for Bankruptcy Prediction -Domestic KSE listed Bankrupted Companies after the foreign exchange crisis in 1997 (인공신경망을 이용한 기업도산 예측 - IMF후 국내 상장회사를 중심으로 -)

  • Jeong Yu-Seok;Lee Hyun-Soo;Chae Young-Il;Suh Yung-Ho
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Quality Management Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.655-673
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    • 2004
  • This paper is concerned with analysing the bankruptcy prediction power of three models: Multivariate Discriminant Analysis(MDA ), Logit Analysis, Neural Network. The after-crisis bankrupted companies were limited to the research data and the listed companies belonging to manufacturing industry was limited to the research data so as to improve prediction accuracy and validity of the model. In order to assure meaningful bankruptcy prediction, training data and testing data were not extracted within the corresponding period. The result is that prediction accuracy of neural network model is more excellent than that of logit analysis and MDA model when considering that execution of testing data was followed by execution of training data.

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Efficiency of Sterilization Policies by the State Bank of Vietnam

  • HOANG, Hang Thi Thanh;NGUYEN, Phung Thi Kim;NGUYEN, Phuc Tran
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.10
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    • pp.87-94
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    • 2020
  • This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of sterilization in Vietnam. We estimate a simultaneous equation by using Two-Stage least squares (2SLS) regression analysis. The time-series data was collected for the first quarter of 2004 to the fourth quarter of 2018. In particular, the effectiveness of sterilization is considered in terms of dollarized economy, since making the transition from a centrally planned to a market economy system, the Vietnamese economy has remained in a state of dollarization. In addition, we also assess whether the global financial crisis had an impact on the sterilization effectiveness of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). On the basis of the estimated sterilization and offset coefficients, our results suggest that the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has not been able to fully neutralize the impact on the domestic money supply when intervening in the foreign exchange market, and the capital inflows respond strongly to changes in domestic monetary conditions. The results also show that the global financial crisis has changed the effectiveness of these sterilization policies. An analysis of this study's empirical findings provides the opportunity to derive some recommendations that may assist in increasing the effectiveness of the State Bank of Vietnam's sterilization policies in the process of accumulating international reserves.

The Analysis of Financial Factors and efficiency that influence on the Venture Business' Survival (벤처기업의 효율성과 재무요인이 기업의 생존에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Song, Sung-Hwan;Gwon, Seong-Hoon;Hong, Soon-Ki;Yoo, Kyung-Jin;Bae, Young-Im
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2010
  • There are several stage in corporate's life cycle such as foundation, growth, maturity or bankruptcy. A bankruptcy is very important for corporate in the life cycle. Especially, venture business' life cycle is short compare to other type of corporate. A lot of venture businesses have emerged and bankrupted soon in the market. Venture businesses' survival or bankruptcy have been influenced by not only external environment like the rate of exchange, oil price, and foreign exchange crisis but also internal environment such as efficiency, process, human resources, finance and CEO. In this paper, we attempt to examine financial factors and efficiency that influence on the venture businesses' survival and bankruptcy. The more venture businesses have high efficiency score, the more they have high probability of survival.