• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecasting combination

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Introduction of InsurTech and Analysis of Re-Entry into Chinese Insurance Market for Korean Insurance Companies (인슈어테크 도입과 한국 보험회사의 중국 보험시장 재진출 전략 분석 연구)

  • Hwang, Ki-Sik;Choi, Sin-Young;Kim, Se-Jin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.9
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    • pp.1147-1152
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    • 2018
  • In the recent, Chinese insurance market has taken a introduction of InsurTech. It is a combination of insurance and fintech. This means that the policyholder design their own insurance and take out the policy on-line without insurance planner. This trend is remarkable issue. Growth rate of InsurTech in China have significantly been growing. In addition, Chinese insurance market has kept generally stable and fast growth rate, although Chinese forecasting economic growth is subject to massive uncertainties. Nevertheless, the increase in the number of Korean insurance companies fails to settle into Chinese insurance market due to lack of awareness about newness of Chinese insurance market. Moreover, Korean insurance company in China or planning to enter are not prepared for InsurTech yet. Chinese insurance market is valuable for Korean insurance companies. This paper suggests implications of re-entry into Chinese insurance market to Korean insurance companies by analyzing policies which could make environment to endorse Chinese insurtech and case of Chinese insurtech companies.

Inflow Estimation into Chungju Reservoir Using RADAR Forecasted Precipitation Data and ANFIS (RADAR 강우예측자료와 ANFIS를 이용한 충주댐 유입량 예측)

  • Choi, Changwon;Yi, Jaeeung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.857-871
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    • 2013
  • The interest in rainfall observation and forecasting using remote sensing method like RADAR (Radio Detection and Ranging) and satellite image is increased according to increased damage by rapid weather change like regional torrential rain and flash flood. In this study, the basin runoff was calculated using adaptive neuro-fuzzy technique, one of the data driven model and MAPLE (McGill Algorithm for Precipitation Nowcasting by Lagrangian Extrapolation) forecasted precipitation data as one of the input variables. The flood estimation method using neuro-fuzzy technique and RADAR forecasted precipitation data was evaluated. Six rainfall events occurred at flood season in 2010 and 2011 in Chungju Reservoir basin were used for the input data. The flood estimation results according to the rainfall data used as training, checking and testing data in the model setup process were compared. The 15 models were composed of combination of the input variables and the results according to change of clustering methods were compared and analysed. From this study was that using the relatively larger clustering radius and the biggest flood ever happened for training data showed the better flood estimation. The model using MAPLE forecasted precipitation data showed relatively better result at inflow estimation Chungju Reservoir.

Wind-sand coupling movement induced by strong typhoon and its influences on aerodynamic force distribution of the wind turbine

  • Ke, Shitang;Dong, Yifan;Zhu, Rongkuan;Wang, Tongguang
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.433-450
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    • 2020
  • The strong turbulence characteristic of typhoon not only will significantly change flow field characteristics surrounding the large-scale wind turbine and aerodynamic force distribution on surface, but also may cause morphological evolution of coast dune and thereby form sand storms. A 5MW horizontal-axis wind turbine in a wind power plant of southeastern coastal areas in China was chosen to investigate the distribution law of additional loads caused by wind-sand coupling movement of coast dune at landing of strong typhoons. Firstly, a mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mode was introduced in for high spatial resolution simulation of typhoon "Megi". Wind speed profile on the boundary layer of typhoon was gained through fitting based on nonlinear least squares and then it was integrated into the user-defined function (UDF) as an entry condition of small-scaled CFD numerical simulation. On this basis, a synchronous iterative modeling of wind field and sand particle combination was carried out by using a continuous phase and discrete phase. Influencing laws of typhoon and normal wind on moving characteristics of sand particles, equivalent pressure distribution mode of structural surface and characteristics of lift resistance coefficient were compared. Results demonstrated that: Compared with normal wind, mesoscale typhoon intensifies the 3D aerodynamic distribution mode on structural surface of wind turbine significantly. Different from wind loads, sand loads mainly impact on 30° ranges at two sides of the lower windward region on the tower. The ratio between sand loads and wind load reaches 3.937% and the maximum sand pressure coefficient is 0.09. The coupling impact effect of strong typhoon and large sand particles is more significant, in which the resistance coefficient of tower is increased by 9.80% to the maximum extent. The maximum resistance coefficient in typhoon field is 13.79% higher than that in the normal wind field.

A Two-Phase Stock Trading System based on Pattern Matching and Automatic Rule Induction (패턴 매칭과 자동 규칙 생성에 기반한 2단계 주식 트레이딩 시스템)

  • Lee, Jong-Woo;Kim, Yu-Seop;Kim, Sung-Dong;Lee, Jae-Won;Chae, Jin-Seok
    • The KIPS Transactions:PartB
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    • v.10B no.3
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    • pp.257-264
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    • 2003
  • In the context of a dynamic trading environment, the ultimate goal of the financial forecasting system is to optimize a specific trading objective. This paper proposes a two-phase (extraction and filtering) stock trading system that aims at maximizing the rates of returns. Extraction of stocks is performed by searching specific time-series patterns described by a combination of values of technical indicators. In the filtering phase, several rules are applied to the extracted sets of stocks to select stocks to be actually traded. The filtering rules are automatically induced from past data. From a large database of daily stock prices, the values of technical indicators are calculated. They are used to make the extraction patterns, and the distributions of the discretization intervals of the values are calculated for both positive and negative data sets. We assumed that the values in the intervals of distinctive distribution may contribute to the prediction of future trend of stocks, so the rules for filtering stocks are automatically induced from the data in those intervals. We show the rates of returns when using our trading system outperform the market average. These results mean rule induction method using distributional differences is useful.

The NCAM Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) Version 1: Implementation and Evaluation (국가농림기상센터 지면대기모델링패키지(NCAM-LAMP) 버전 1: 구축 및 평가)

  • Lee, Seung-Jae;Song, Jiae;Kim, Yu-Jung
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.307-319
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    • 2016
  • A Land-Atmosphere Modeling Package (LAMP) for supporting agricultural and forest management was developed at the National Center for AgroMeteorology (NCAM). The package is comprised of two components; one is the Weather Research and Forecasting modeling system (WRF) coupled with Noah-Multiparameterization options (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) and the other is an offline one-dimensional LSM. The objective of this paper is to briefly describe the two components of the NCAM-LAMP and to evaluate their initial performance. The coupled WRF/Noah-MP system is configured with a parent domain over East Asia and three nested domains with a finest horizontal grid size of 810 m. The innermost domain covers two Gwangneung deciduous and coniferous KoFlux sites (GDK and GCK). The model is integrated for about 8 days with the initial and boundary conditions taken from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Final Analysis (FNL) data. The verification variables are 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, 2-m humidity, and surface precipitation for the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. Skill scores are calculated for each domain and two dynamic vegetation options using the difference between the observed data from the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the simulated data from the WRF/Noah-MP coupled system. The accuracy of precipitation simulation is examined using a contingency table that is made up of the Probability of Detection (POD) and the Equitable Threat Score (ETS). The standalone LSM simulation is conducted for one year with the original settings and is compared with the KoFlux site observation for net radiation, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, and soil moisture variables. According to results, the innermost domain (810 m resolution) among all domains showed the minimum root mean square error for 2-m air temperature, 10-m wind, and 2-m humidity. Turning on the dynamic vegetation had a tendency of reducing 10-m wind simulation errors in all domains. The first nested domain (7,290 m resolution) showed the highest precipitation score, but showed little advantage compared with using the dynamic vegetation. On the other hand, the offline one-dimensional Noah-MP LSM simulation captured the site observed pattern and magnitude of radiative fluxes and soil moisture, and it left room for further improvement through supplementing the model input of leaf area index and finding a proper combination of model physics.