• 제목/요약/키워드: Forecasting Water Demand

검색결과 55건 처리시간 0.033초

지역 특성 및 월간 변화를 고려한 대하천 수변 친수지구 이용수요 예측 (Forecasting for the Demand on Water Amenity Zones in the Large Rivers Based on Regional Characteristics and Monthly Variation)

  • 서명교;이동섭
    • 한국습지학회지
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    • 제17권4호
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    • pp.436-446
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    • 2015
  • 본 연구에서는 한강, 낙동강, 금강, 영산강, 섬진강 등을 중심으로 신규 조성된 친수지구에 대한 이용 현황 조사 방안을 제안하고, 조사 결과를 토대로 성장 곡선 모형을 이용하여 총 357개 지구에 대한 2014년 이용수요를 예측하였다. 또한 친수지구가 위치한 지방자치체의 인구밀도와 수계별로 위치한 인구 100만 이상 도시와 친수지구 사이의 거리에 의한 영향을 검토하였다. 각 친수지구별로 로지스틱 모형과 곰페르츠 모형으로 추정한 결과를 RMSE와 MAPE 적합도를 이용하여 선택하였으며, 분석 결과 2014년 친수지구 이용수요는 한강 수계와 충청북도에서 상대적으로 활성화 된 것으로 나타났다. 인구밀도의 영향은 금강 수계를 제외하고는 비교적 미미한 것으로 보이며, 친수지구 이용에 대해서는 대도시 영향이 나타나긴 하나, 마찬가지로 다른 수계에 비해 금강 수계에서 대도시 영향이 큰 것으로 나타났다.

A Prediction of Nutrition Water for Strawberry Production using Linear Regression

  • Venkatesan, Saravanakumar;Sathishkumar, VE;Park, Jangwoo;Shin, Changsun;Cho, Yongyun
    • International journal of advanced smart convergence
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    • 제9권1호
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    • pp.132-140
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    • 2020
  • It is very important to use appropriate nutrition water for crop growth in hydroponic farming facilities. However, in many cases, the supply of nutrition water is not designed with a precise plan, but is performed in a conventional manner. We proposes a forecasting technique for nutrition water requirements based on a data analysis for optimal strawberry production. To do this, the proposed forecasting technique uses linear regression for correlating strawberry production, soil condition, and environmental parameters with nutrition water demand for the actual two-stage strawberry production soil. Also, it includes predicting the optimal amount of nutrition water requires according to the heterogeneous cultivation environment and variety by comparing the amount of nutrition water needed for the growth and production of different kinds of strawberries. We suggested study uses two types of section beds that are compared to find out the best section bed production of strawberry growth. The dataset includes 233 samples collected from a real strawberry greenhouse, and the four predicted variables consist of the total amounts of nutrition water, average temperature, humidity, and CO2 in the greenhouse.

Accessing socio-economic and climate change impacts on surface water availability in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan with using WEAP model.

  • Mehboob, Muhammad Shafqat;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.407-407
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    • 2019
  • According to Asian Development Bank report Pakistan is among water scarce countries. Climate scenario on the basis IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) revealed that annual mean temperature of Pakistan from year 2010-2019 was $17C^o$ which will rise up to $21C^o$ at the end of this century, similarly almost 10% decrease of annual rainfall is expected at the end of the century. It is a changing task in underdeveloped countries like Pakistan to meet the water demands of rapidly increasing population in a changing climate. While many studies have tackled scarcity and stream flow forecasting of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan, very few of them are related to socio-economic and climate change impact on sustainable water management of UIB. This study investigates the pattern of current and future surface water availability for various demand sites (e.g. domestic, agriculture and industrial) under different socio-economic and climate change scenarios in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) Pakistan for a period of 2010 to 2050. A state-of-the-art planning tool Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) is used to analyze the dynamics of current and future water demand. The stream flow data of five sub catchment (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar and Shoyke) and entire UIB were calibrated and validated for the year of 2006 to 2011 using WEAP. The Nash Sutcliffe coefficient and coefficient of determination is achieved ranging from 0.63 to 0.92. The results indicate that unmet water demand is likely to increase severe threshold and the external driving forces e.g. socio-economic and climate change will create a gap between supply and demand of water.

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전력계통에서의 다목적댐 수력발전계획 (hydraulic-power generation of electricity plan of multi-Purpose dam in electric Power system)

  • 김승효;고영환;황인광
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 1999년도 하계학술대회 논문집 C
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    • pp.1248-1252
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    • 1999
  • To provide electricity power of good quality, it is essential to establish generation of electricity plan in electric power system based on accurate power-demand prediction and cope with changes of power-need fluctuating constantly. The role of hydraulic-power generation of electricity in electric power system is of importance because responding to electric power-demand counts or reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity which is designed for additional load in electric power system. So hydraulic-power generation of electricity must have fast start reserve. But the amount of water, resources of reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity is restricted and multi-used, so the scheduling of management by exact forecasting the amount of water is critical. That is why efficient hydraulic-power generation of electricity makes a main role on pumping up the utility of energy and water resource. This thesis introduced the example of optimal generation of electricity plan establishment which is used in managing reservoir-type hydraulic-power generation of electricity.

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Decision Support System for the Water Supply System in Fukuoka, Japan

    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2001년도 학술발표회 논문집(I)
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    • pp.15-24
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    • 2001
  • This study introduces an integrated decision support system (DSS) for the water supply system in Fukuoka City, Japan. The objective is to conceive a comprehensive tool that may aid decision-makers to derive the best water supply alternatives from a multi-reservoir system in order to minimize the long-term drought damages and threat of water shortage. The present DSS consists of graphical user interface (GUI), a database manager, and mathematical models for runoff analysis, water demand forecasting, and reservoir operation. The methodology applied explicitly integrates the drought risk assessment based on the concept of reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, as constraints to derive the management operation. The application of the DSS to the existing water supply system in Fukuoka City was found to be an efficient tool to facilitate the examination of a sequence of water supply scenarios toward an improved performance of the actual water supply system during periods of drought.

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소규모 댐의 효과적 운영을 위한 저수관리 기법 개발 (Development of Storage Management Method for Effective Operation of Small Dams)

  • 김필식;김선주
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제48권2호
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    • pp.27-35
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    • 2006
  • Large dams are managed with operation standard and flood forecasting systems, while small dams do not have management method generally. Shortage of water resources and natural disasters due to drought and flood raised public concerns for management of small dams. Most of small dams are irrigation dams, which need diversified water uses. However, the lack of systematic management of small dams have caused serious water wastage and increased natural disasters. Storage management method and system were developed to solve these problems in small dams. The system was applied to Seongju dam for effective management. The storage management method was established considering hydrology simulation and statistical analysis using the system. This method can bring additional available water, even in the same conditions of the water demand and the supply conditions of watershed. It can improve the flood control capacity and water utilization efficiency by' the flexible operation of storage space.

전력수요 분석과 예측을 통한 수력발전 전력거래가격 전망 전략 (Forecasting Strategy for Hydropower Power Market Price by Power Demand Analysis and Forecast)

  • 김기태;이경배;최인석;김종겸
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2011년도 제42회 하계학술대회
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    • pp.656-657
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    • 2011
  • 산업사회의 급속한 발전과 생활수준 향상에 따라 전력수요 및 공급전망에 대한 인식이 점차 강조되고 있다. 에너지자원이 부족한 우리나라는 전체 에너지의 약 97%를 수입에 의존하고 있으므로 전력공급의 정확한 수요예측을 통해서 안정적, 경제적으로 전력을 공급해야 한다. 2001년 전력산업구조개편에 따라 전력시장은 발전부문만 시장에 참여하여 경쟁하는 발전경쟁체제로 발전사업자의 입찰량과 전력거래소의 전력수요 예측 결과를 이용하여 시간대별 전력시장가격을 결정하는 가격결정발전 계획을 수립하고 있다. 본 논문에서는 청정 녹색에너지로 피크시간대에 발전하여 주파수 조절을 담당함으로써 전력계통에 크게 기여하고 있는 수력 발전기의 최적 입찰 전략 및 수력발전 사업계획에 활용할 수 있는 전력거래가격 전망 전략을 제시하여 수력발전사업자의 수익 증대와 전력시장 가격 안정화에 기여하고자 한다.

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농업용저수지 재개발을 위한 우선순위 선정시스템 개발 (Development of Decision System for Determining Priorities of Re-construction Reservoirs)

  • 이광야;김해도;정광근
    • 한국농공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국농공학회 2005년도 학술발표논문집
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    • pp.26-31
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    • 2005
  • In national prospective, the needs to develop water resources has been increased due to water shortage from diverse use of water resources in agricultural areas. Existing agricultural water demand, which has mainly been limited to the use of farming, are now expanding to diverse water uses such as supporting daily lives, diluting environmental pollution as well as industrial use for agricultural complex currently under construction in agricultural region. In this situation, for the sake of effective procurement of water resources and supply method, it is definitely required to enhance the effectiveness of budget investment and project proceedings through integrated re-development which links projects to strengthen existing dams, reservoirs and hydraulic facilities. The major scopes of this research includes developing different types of system such as selecting potential sites to re-construct reservoirs including generating base maps and thematic maps, data collection regarding water demands and reservoir status; analyzing reservoir data; estimating developable capacity and index calculation; and forecasting inundated areas. In addition, this study provides other products such as developing output generation system which can support wide use of data built and analyzed; database generation for better data management; data analysis including selection, extraction, indexation, and calculation of base items through standardization; data security system prohibiting exterior proliferation and malicious manufacturing of data.

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RAINFALL AND RUNOFF VARIATION ANALYSIS FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES

  • Sang-man;Heon, Joo-;Jong-ho;Kum-young
    • Water Engineering Research
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    • 제5권3호
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    • pp.111-121
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    • 2004
  • For the long-term strategic water resources planning, forecasting the future streamflow change is important to meet the demand of a growing society. The streamflow variation to the decade-long precipitation was investigated for the two major stage gauging stations in Korea. Precipitation and runoff characteristics have been analyzed at Yongwol stream stage in the Han River as well as Sutong stream stage in the Kum River for the future water resources management strategies. Monte Carlo method has been applied to estimate the future precipitation and runoff. Based on the trend line of 10-year moving average of runoff depth for the historical runoff records, the relation between runoff and the time variation was examined in more detail using regression analysis. This study showed that the surface flows have been significantly decreased while precipitation has been stable in these basins. Decreasing in runoff reflects the regional watershed characteristics such as forest cover changes. The findings of this study could contribute to the planning and development for the efficient water resources utilization.

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미래 수요예측을 통한 제주도 농업용수 회복탄력적 공급 방안에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Resilient Supply of Agricultural Water in Jeju Island by Forecasting Future Demand)

  • 고재한;정민혁;범진아;성무홍;정형모;유승환;윤광식
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제62권3호
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    • pp.71-83
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    • 2020
  • Resilience is the capacity to maintain essential services under a range of circumstances from normal to extreme. It is achieved through the ability of assets, networks, systems and management to anticipate, absorb and recover from disturbance. It requires adaptive capacity in respect of current and future risks and uncertainties as well as experience to date. The agricultural infrastructures with high resilience can not only reduce the size of the disaster relatively, but also minimize the loss by reducing the time required for recovery. This study aims to evaluate the most suitable drought countermeasures with the analysis of various resilience indices by predicting future agricultural water shortage under land use and climate change scenarios for agricultural areas in Jeju Island. The results showed that the permanent countermeasure is suitable than the temporary countermeasures as drought size and the cost required for recovery increase. Wide-area water supply system, which is a kind of water grid system, is identified as the most advantageous among countermeasures. It is recommended to evaluate the capability of agricultural infrastructure against drought with the various Resilience Indices for reliable assessment of long-term effect.