As the pace of competition dramatically accelerates and the complexity of change grows, a variety of research have been conducted to improve firms' short-term performance and to enhance firms' long-term survival. In particular, researchers and practitioners have paid their attention to identify promising technologies that lead competitive advantage to a firm. Discovery of promising technology depends on how a firm evaluates the value of technologies, thus many evaluating methods have been proposed. Experts' opinion based approaches have been widely accepted to predict the value of technologies. Whereas this approach provides in-depth analysis and ensures validity of analysis results, it is usually cost-and time-ineffective and is limited to qualitative evaluation. Considerable studies attempt to forecast the value of technology by using patent information to overcome the limitation of experts' opinion based approach. Patent based technology evaluation has served as a valuable assessment approach of the technological forecasting because it contains a full and practical description of technology with uniform structure. Furthermore, it provides information that is not divulged in any other sources. Although patent information based approach has contributed to our understanding of prediction of promising technologies, it has some limitations because prediction has been made based on the past patent information, and the interpretations of patent analyses are not consistent. In order to fill this gap, this study proposes a technology forecasting methodology by integrating patent information approach and artificial intelligence method. The methodology consists of three modules : evaluation of technologies promising, implementation of technologies value prediction model, and recommendation of promising technologies. In the first module, technologies promising is evaluated from three different and complementary dimensions; impact, fusion, and diffusion perspectives. The impact of technologies refers to their influence on future technologies development and improvement, and is also clearly associated with their monetary value. The fusion of technologies denotes the extent to which a technology fuses different technologies, and represents the breadth of search underlying the technology. The fusion of technologies can be calculated based on technology or patent, thus this study measures two types of fusion index; fusion index per technology and fusion index per patent. Finally, the diffusion of technologies denotes their degree of applicability across scientific and technological fields. In the same vein, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent are considered respectively. In the second module, technologies value prediction model is implemented using artificial intelligence method. This studies use the values of five indexes (i.e., impact index, fusion index per technology, fusion index per patent, diffusion index per technology and diffusion index per patent) at different time (e.g., t-n, t-n-1, t-n-2,
The study was conducted to search developmental process of plant protection science from review of forty-three hundreds literatures presented since 1900 in Korea and to forecast future statues of the science to be done. About 80 percent of literatures related to plant protection science such as plant pathology, applied entomology, weed science and agricultural pharmacology were collected from publications of agricultural and forestry reseach organizations attached to Office of Rural Development and Office of Forestry. The rest of literatures were mainly collected from Korean Journal of Plant Protection Society and small number of literatures were also collected from publications of the other journals of crop science and thesis collection of agricultural colleges. In Korea, research organizations of plant protection science are divided into two main groups such as exclusive agricultural research organizations and agricultural colleges. It is pointed out that the former contributions to plant protection science are very great compared to those of the latter since 1900. From periodical consideration of developmental process of the science since 1900, the history or the science are divided into three eras such as introduction and sprout of modern plant protection science during the first forty years, distress of the science during the following twenty years including the Second World War and the Korean War and rapid growth of the science after 1961. In spite of long time distress of the science during the Second World War and the Korean War, the researches on plant protection science in post-war have been done twice as many as pre-war. From consideration of the subject plants in researches of plant protection, it is shown that a great many researches on protection of rice plant have been done and occupy 37 percent of plant protection researches since 1900. And also researches on protection of fruit-trees and cash-crops are not so many as those of rice plant but have been done in noticeable numbers. In fact, researches on protection of fruit-trees and cashcrops were the most important subjects of plant protection researches in pre-war while those of rice plant were the most important subjects after 1930, particulary in post-war. From consideration of contents of plant protection researches, it is said that more fundamental researches than applied ones such as practical control methods of diseases, insect pests and weeds were done in pre-war while more applied researches than fundamental ones were done in post-war, Among applied researches, those of chemical control were the most important subjects. Researches on disease and insect-pest resistance have been done in both pre-war and post-war while researches on forecasting of disease and insect-pest and race of plant pathogens have been done in post-war. And also researches on weed control mainly have been done after 1960. Researches on agricultural chemicals for control of diseases, insect pests and weeds still belong to a new field which must be expected in future, and there is nothing to notice with the exception of practical application of agricultural chemicals introduced from foreign countries. Some of important researches on diseases and insect pests were discussed in relation to developmental process of plant protection science in Korea since 1900. In future, researches on plant protection will be develop to the direction supporting importance of integrated control for plant protection. Therefore, it is pointed out that security of highly educated and trained scientists with enlargement of reseach fields of plant protection science are necessary and role of agricultural colleges for future development of the science must be emphasized.