• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecast elements

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A Comparison of the Impact of Regional Anthropogenic Climatic Change in Urban and Rural Areas in South Korea (1955-2016) (최근 60년간 도시 및 농촌 지역의 국지적 기후변화 비교 분석)

  • Yoon, Dong-Hyun;Nam, Won-Ho;Hong, Eun-Mi;Kim, Taegon;Ho, Chang-Hoi;Hayes, Michael J.
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.60 no.3
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2018
  • Local climate characteristics for both urban and rural areas can be attributed to multiple factors. Two factors affecting these characteristics include: 1) greenhouse gases related to global warming, and 2) urban heat island (UHI) effects caused by changes in surface land use and energy balances related to rapid urbanization. Because of the unique hydrological and climatological characteristics of cities compared with rural and forested areas, distinguishing the impacts of global warming urbanization is important. In this study, we analyzed anthropogenic climatic changes caused by rapid urbanization. Weather elements (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) over the last 60 years (1955-2016) are compared in urban areas (Seoul, Incheon, Pohang, Daegu, Jeonju, Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan) and rural/forested areas (Gangneung, Chupungnyeong, Mokpo, and Yeosu). Temperature differences between these areas reveal the effects of urbanization and global warming. The findings of this study can be used to analyze and forecast the impacts of climate change and urbanization in other urban and non-urban areas.

A Model to Estimate Software Development Effort Based on COSMIC-FFP Using System Complexity (시스템 복잡도를 적용한 COSMIC-FFP 기반 소프트웨어 개발노력 추정 모델)

  • Park, Sang-Ki;Park, Man-Gon
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.13 no.11
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    • pp.1575-1585
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    • 2010
  • It is very important to forecast a back resource of a software development effort at the early stage of development life cycle for successful project processing, and it is carried out through software size estimation. The recent trend of software size estimation method is focused on the user's value such as FPA. We measure the actual development effort through case study and calculate CFP directly according to the cosmic-ffp manual V.3.0. in this paper. We also propose the software development effort estimation model by using the produced data. COSMIC-FFP does not use weights of necessary function elements, and so it has disadvantage in estimating sizes. This paper proposes the estimation model to estimate the precision software size by using system complexity as weight.

Data Mining of Gas Accident and Meteorological Data in Korea for a Prediction Model of Gas Accidents (국내 가스사고와 기상자료의 데이터마이닝을 이용한 가스사고 예측모델 연구)

  • Hur, Young-Taeg;Shin, Dong-Il;Lee, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.33-38
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    • 2012
  • Analysis on gas accidents by types occurred has been made to prevent the recurrence of accidents, through analysis of past history of gas accident occurring environment. The number of gas accidents has been decreasing, but still accidents are occurring steadily. Gas-using environment and gas accidents are estimated to be closely connected since gas-using types are changing by time period, weather, etc. in terms of accident contents. As a result of analysing gas accidents by 7 meteorological elements, such as the mean temperature, the highest temperature, the lowest temperature, relative humidity, the amount of clouds, precipitation and wind velocity, it has been found out that gas accidents are influenced by temperature or relative humidity, and accident occurs more frequently when the sky is clean and wind velocity is slow. Possibility of gas accidents can be provided in real time, using the proposed model made to predict gas accidents in connection with the weather forecast service. Possibility and number of gas accidents will be checked real time by connecting to the business system of Korea Gas Safety Corp., and it is considered that it would be positively used for preventing gas accidents.

A Study on the changes the electronic game by the times (전자게임의 시대별 변천과정에 관한 연구)

  • 은광하;이동연
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.327-338
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    • 2002
  • Nowadays, in accordance with our information-oriented society, industries based on digital Technology have been quickly developing all over the world. This industryhas been playing an important role in improving the quality of peoples'lives so far and will continue to do so, both culturally and socially through industrial and economic aspects. Particularly, the electronic game, on e of the representatives, is providing an intensive value-added segment to the entertainment industry. Games are deeply rooted in people's lives and have a big influence on the industry, society and culture, even our life styles. Consequently, this study is investigating change the electronic game by the times and analyzing the game entity. It is based on the research and analysis of the transition of electronic games in each era. From now on, we will look forward, using previous material in an attempt to forecast the right direction of electronic game design in the future.

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A Prediction Model for Forecast of the Onset Date of Changmas (장마 시작일 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Hyoun-Young;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 1993
  • Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.

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Russia-Central Asia relations -Focusing on the period after the establishment of the EAEU in 2015- (러시아·중앙아시아 관계 -2015년 EAEU 창설 이후를 중심으로-)

  • Sang Nam Park
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.85-114
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze Russia-Central Asia relations since the launch of the EAEU in 2015 and forecast the future from a structural realism perspective. Bilateral relations have both elements of close cooperation and elements of conflict. Russia and Central Asia, which have the characteristics of an authoritarian alliance, also have a symbiotic relationship in which they have no choice but to cooperate with each other to maintain the regime. Based on this, Russia has made various efforts to reunify Central Asia. Central Asia also has no choice but to cooperate with Russia for its survival, but at the same time, it has expanded its scope of cooperation in the international community to avoid being subjugated to Russia again. However, as China's power expands, Russia's relative weakness, and wariness toward Russia increases after the Ukraine War, the gap in bilateral relations is widening. In particular, as China's influence grows, Russia's nervousness also increases. This is why Putin visits Central Asia and holds active summit talks even during the war in Ukraine. If competition between Russia and China surfaces, there is a high possibility that the international order in Central Asia will become unstable. However, it is still unlikely that the power of Russia and China will reverse in Central Asia. Above all, the security, historical, and cultural connections between Russia and Central Asia are areas that are difficult for China to catch up with. Therefore, a weakening of Russia's influence compared to the past is inevitable, but its superiority is expected to continue. If Russia breaks away from belligerence and transforms into an attractive cooperative partner, there is a possibility that bilateral relations will take an upward turn again. However, it seems unlikely that such changes and innovations will occur under the Putin regime. Therefore, the biggest obstacle to realizing Putin's goal of reunifying Central Asia is Putin himself.

A Study on Preference of Men and Women in Their 20s of Clothing Color -In the Taegu Areas- (20대 남녀의 의복색상 선호에 관한 연구 -대구시내를 중심으로-)

  • 은영자;박소희
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.305-323
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    • 1996
  • The purpose of this sty is to forecast the tendency of clothing colors, to provide materials useful for making the color plan for a better costume, and suggest new information in the apparel industry. To achieve these purposes, this study was carried out by suggesting vogue colors of recent apparel, along with the 20 standard colors of Muncell to 350 men and women in their 20s residing in Taegu.. We analysed and compared their preferred colors in suits vidual factor ;age, sex, education ,skin color, and body shape, and additionally classifying their interest in clothing colors, cause for color selection , degree of interest in color of clothes, color satisfaction of apparel market, and color combination of clothing, color satisfaction of apparel market, and color combination of clothing. We compared these elements according to their age, sex, and education. The results of this study is summarized as follows; 1. It was shown that both men and women in their 20s preferred warm colors the first colors mentioned being the most popular ; Pastels, Red, Blue and Black. They disliked dark and sordid colros in the order of Mauve, Khaki and Red. They preferred wearing Pastels and Yellow in the Spring, White, Blue, and Pastels were the favorites for summer, Beige in autumn, and black, Gray, and Beige in winter. The repugnated colors they chose two wear were Black, Red, Mauve, Khaki in spring and summer. Mauve, Red, Yellow were favorites for autumn, and Blue·White, Yellow·Green, and Pastels in winter. 2. The preferred colors for T-shirts were Yellow, Pastels, White in spring. White and Pastels were summer favorites, Beige an Red for autumn, and Black, Red, Beige in Winter. As for suits, the preferred colors in spring were in the order of Pastels, Beige and Yellow. The preferred colors of upper garments in summer were in the order of White and pastels. for lower summer garments Pastels, White and Blue were favorites. In autumn, Beige was shown to be highly preferred, and in winter, the order of preferred colors was Black, Gray and Beige. 3. On of those individual factors showing the greatest difference was sex. 4. Those factors having the greatest impact on the selection of clothing color were the season and their preference color. 5. The in vogue color of men in their 20s was at a higher level than hat of women. The groups that had an upper college level education showed a significant difference in their choices thant hose who were highschool graduates and technical college student and graduates. The consideration of inteterest in color of clothes, holding clothes during new purchasing, body shape and skin color was higher for women than men. In buying and wearing accessaries, women tend to take into consideration the harmony with the garment, and there was shown a significant difference between highschool graduates and the groups above the level of college education.

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Impact of Meteorological Wind Fields Average on Predicting Volcanic Tephra Dispersion of Mt. Baekdu (백두산 화산 분출물 확산 예측에 대기흐름장 평균화가 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Soon-Hwan;Yun, Sung-Hyo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.360-372
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    • 2011
  • In order to clarify the advection and dispersion characteristics of volcanic tephra to be emitted from the Mt. Baekdu, several numerical experiments were carried out using three-dimensional atmospheric dynamic model, Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) and Laglangian particles dispersion model FLEXPART. Four different temporally averaged meteorological values including wind speed and direction were used, and their averaged intervals of meteorological values are 1 month, 10 days, and 3days, respectively. Real time simulation without temporal averaging is also established in this study. As averaging time of meteorological elements is longer, wind along the principle direction is stronger. On the other hands, the tangential direction wind tends to be clearer when the time become shorten. Similar tendency was shown in the distribution of volcanic tephra because the dispersion of particles floating in the atmosphere is strongly associated with wind pattern. Wind transporting the volcanic tephra is divided clearly into upper and lower region and almost ash arriving the Korean Peninsula is released under 2 km high above the ground. Since setting up the temporal averaging of meteorological values is one of the critical factors to determine the density of tephra in the air and their surface deposition, reasonable time for averaging meteorological values should be established before the numerical dispersion assessment of volcanic tephra.

A Study on the Fashion Illustration of 17th Century (17세기 복식디자인화에 관한 연구)

  • 이순홍;황수정
    • The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.395-413
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    • 1994
  • Costume is mirror of diverse life styles and attitudes in human life. It has a meaning beyond "clothing" . Fashion illlustration is to express these costumes with a picture. So, it can be said that it is a ′mirror of costumes′ in historical side. The purpose of this study is to find the meaning of fashion illustration of 17th century, which called its first one and to look into its characteristics and costumes of 17th century respotlighting fashion illustrators and painters related with fashion illustration in those days. This study is based on Western Europe by literatures. The fashion illustration in 17th century designed by painters and fashion illustrators. They are Wenceslaus Hollar, Abraham Bosse, Jacques Callot, Jean de st Jean, N. Bonar, A. Trouvain, A. Arnoult in France and so on. The characteristics of fashion illustration in 17th century are as follows : 1. There was a quickening of modern civil consciousness in 17th century. As the subject of costume culture moved from noble class to the working class which began to have a free, the fashion illustration changed to the direction of informing their social class and job. 2. The fashion illustrations of 17th century showed storng realism which was a base of modern picture. 3. The most of them showed costume plates. It was not to transmit adding intended forecast but to describe sincerely in costumes′ record. However, the fashion illustration since the middle of 17th century was designed considering fashion. 4. It could be said that the fashion illustration of 17th century was the forest one of today. It was expressed by Wenceslaus Hollar′s ones. And it is found in his suggestion of popular costumes before and behind and delicate description like accessories. 5. They were transmitted by fashion magazines internationally. Le Mercure Galant, which printed mode plates in 1678, was the first modern fashion magazine aiming at general readers. The fashion illustration of 17th century can divide into ones for court, for working classes, costume plates. The fashion illustrations for court designed by court painters. There were court costumes of early time, spanish Mode and of lately time, French Court Culture. They had baroque elements with a bunddle of ribbons and race decoration. On the other hand, the fashion iooustrations for working class were under the influence on Netherlands styles. They were designed for the purpose of god function and much use. That′s why was under the influence of puritanical life creed. In this situation, the costume plates directed the fashion in those days. At that time, they were supplied widely and it amy be an attempt of popularization. The fashion illustrations of 17th century appeared that they had transmissible character and artistics expression. On the basis of them, we can look into the fashion illustrations of today.

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The Effect of Social Media Marketing Activities on Purchase Intention with Brand Equity and Social Brand Engagement: Empirical Evidence from Korean Cosmetic Firms (소셜 미디어 마케팅 활동이 브랜드 자산과 소셜 브랜드 개입을 통해 구매 의도에 미치는 영향: 한국 화장품 회사를 중심으로)

  • Choedon, Tenzin;Lee, Young-Chan
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.141-160
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    • 2020
  • This study provides a new perspective on the effect of social media marketing activities (SMMA) on purchase intention in Korean cosmetic firms. The increasing use of social media has changed how firms engage their brand with consumers. This phenomenon triggered a need for this research to examine further the influence of SMMA on social brand engagement (SBE), brand equity (BE), and purchase intention (PI). The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of SMMA on purchase intention in Korean cosmetic firms with brand equity and social brand engagement. The factors of SMMA were identified based on previous literature reviews that have an impact on social media marketing activity. To empirically test the effects of SMMA, this study conducted a questionnaire survey on 219 social media users for data analysis out of the initial 332 survey data. The results reveal that all five SMMA elements are positively related to BE, SBE, and PI. The study enables cosmetic brands to forecast the future purchasing behavior of their customers more accurately and brings clarity to manage their assets and marketing activities as well.