• Title/Summary/Keyword: Forecast accuracy

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A hybrid model of regional path loss of wireless signals through the wall

  • Xi, Guangyong;Lin, Shizhen;Zou, Dongyao
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.16 no.9
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    • pp.3194-3210
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    • 2022
  • Wall obstruction is the main factor leading to the non-line of sight (NLoS) error of indoor localization based on received signal strength indicator (RSSI). Modeling and correcting the path loss of the signals through the wall will improve the accuracy of RSSI localization. Based on electromagnetic wave propagation theory, the reflection and transmission process of wireless signals propagation through the wall is analyzed. The path loss of signals through wall is deduced based on power loss and RSSI definition, and the theoretical model of path loss of signals through wall is proposed. In view of electromagnetic characteristic parameters of the theoretical model usually cannot be accurately obtained, the statistical model of NLoS error caused by the signals through the wall is presented based on the log-distance path loss model to solve the parameters. Combining the statistical model and theoretical model, a hybrid model of path loss of signals through wall is proposed. Based on the empirical values of electromagnetic characteristic parameters of the concrete wall, the effect of each electromagnetic characteristic parameters on path loss is analyzed, and the theoretical model of regional path loss of signals through the wall is established. The statistical model and hybrid model of regional path loss of signals through wall are established by RSSI observation experiments, respectively. The hybrid model can solve the problem of path loss when the material of wall is unknown. The results show that the hybrid model can better express the actual trend of the regional path loss and maintain the pass loss continuity of adjacent areas. The validity of the hybrid model is verified by inverse computation of the RSSI of the extended region, and the calculated RSSI is basically consistent with the measured RSSI. The hybrid model can be used to forecast regional path loss of signals through the wall.

A Detecting Technique for the Climatic Factors that Aided the Spread of COVID-19 using Deep and Machine Learning Algorithms

  • Al-Sharari, Waad;Mahmood, Mahmood A.;Abd El-Aziz, A.A.;Azim, Nesrine A.
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.131-138
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    • 2022
  • Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) is viewed as one of the main general wellbeing theaters on the worldwide level all over the planet. Because of the abrupt idea of the flare-up and the irresistible force of the infection, it causes individuals tension, melancholy, and other pressure responses. The avoidance and control of the novel Covid pneumonia have moved into an imperative stage. It is fundamental to early foresee and figure of infection episode during this troublesome opportunity to control of its grimness and mortality. The entire world is investing unimaginable amounts of energy to fight against the spread of this lethal infection. In this paper, we utilized machine learning and deep learning techniques for analyzing what is going on utilizing countries shared information and for detecting the climate factors that effect on spreading Covid-19, such as humidity, sunny hours, temperature and wind speed for understanding its regular dramatic way of behaving alongside the forecast of future reachability of the COVID-2019 around the world. We utilized data collected and produced by Kaggle and the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science. The dataset has 25 attributes and 9566 objects. Our Experiment consists of two phases. In phase one, we preprocessed dataset for DL model and features were decreased to four features humidity, sunny hours, temperature and wind speed by utilized the Pearson Correlation Coefficient technique (correlation attributes feature selection). In phase two, we utilized the traditional famous six machine learning techniques for numerical datasets, and Dense Net deep learning model to predict and detect the climatic factor that aide to disease outbreak. We validated the model by using confusion matrix (CM) and measured the performance by four different metrics: accuracy, f-measure, recall, and precision.

Three dimensional dynamic soil interaction analysis in time domain through the soft computing

  • Han, Bin;Sun, J.B.;Heidarzadeh, Milad;Jam, M.M. Nemati;Benjeddou, O.
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.761-773
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    • 2021
  • This study presents a 3D non-linear finite element (FE) assessment of dynamic soil-structure interaction (SSI). The numerical investigation has been performed on the time domain through a Finite Element (FE) system, while considering the nonlinear behavior of soil and the multi-directional nature of genuine seismic events. Later, the FE outcomes are analyzed to the recorded in-situ free-field and structural movements, emphasizing the numerical model's great result in duplicating the observed response. In this work, the soil response is simulated using an isotropic hardening elastic-plastic hysteretic model utilizing HSsmall. It is feasible to define the non-linear cycle response from small to large strain amplitudes through this model as well as for the shift in beginning stiffness with depth that happens during cyclic loading. One of the most difficult and unexpected tasks in resolving soil-structure interaction concerns is picking an appropriate ground motion predicted across an earthquake or assessing the geometrical abnormalities in the soil waves. Furthermore, an artificial neural network (ANN) has been utilized to properly forecast the non-linear behavior of soil and its multi-directional character, which demonstrated the accuracy of the ANN based on the RMSE and R2 values. The total result of this research demonstrates that complicated dynamic soil-structure interaction processes may be addressed directly by passing the significant simplifications of well-established substructure techniques.

Comparison of Stock Price Prediction Using Time Series and Non-Time Series Data

  • Min-Seob Song;Junghye Min
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.8
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    • pp.67-75
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    • 2023
  • Stock price prediction is an important topic extensively discussed in the financial market, but it is considered a challenging subject due to numerous factors that can influence it. In this research, performance was compared and analyzed by applying time series prediction models (LSTM, GRU) and non-time series prediction models (RF, SVR, KNN, LGBM) that do not take into account the temporal dependence of data into stock price prediction. In addition, various data such as stock price data, technical indicators, financial statements indicators, buy sell indicators, short selling, and foreign indicators were combined to find optimal predictors and analyze major factors affecting stock price prediction by industry. Through the hyperparameter optimization process, the process of improving the prediction performance for each algorithm was also conducted to analyze the factors affecting the performance. As a result of feature selection and hyperparameter optimization, it was found that the forecast accuracy of the time series prediction algorithm GRU and LSTM+GRU was the highest.

Using machine learning to forecast and assess the uncertainty in the response of a typical PWR undergoing a steam generator tube rupture accident

  • Tran Canh Hai Nguyen ;Aya Diab
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.55 no.9
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    • pp.3423-3440
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    • 2023
  • In this work, a multivariate time-series machine learning meta-model is developed to predict the transient response of a typical nuclear power plant (NPP) undergoing a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR). The model employs Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), including the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and a hybrid CNN-LSTM model. To address the uncertainty inherent in such predictions, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) was implemented. The models were trained using a database generated by the Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) methodology; coupling the thermal hydraulics code, RELAP5/SCDAP/MOD3.4 to the statistical tool, DAKOTA, to predict the variation in system response under various operational and phenomenological uncertainties. The RNN models successfully captures the underlying characteristics of the data with reasonable accuracy, and the BNN-LSTM approach offers an additional layer of insight into the level of uncertainty associated with the predictions. The results demonstrate that LSTM outperforms GRU, while the hybrid CNN-LSTM model is computationally the most efficient. This study aims to gain a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of machine learning models in the context of nuclear safety. By expanding the application of ML models to more severe accident scenarios, where operators are under extreme stress and prone to errors, ML models can provide valuable support and act as expert systems to assist in decision-making while minimizing the chances of human error.

Prediction of Traffic Speed in a Container Terminal Using Yard Tractor Operation Data (내부트럭 운영 정보를 이용한 컨테이너 터미널 내 교통 속도예측)

  • Kim, Taekwang;Heo, Gyoungyoung;Lee, Hoon;Ryu, Kwang Ryel
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.33-41
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    • 2022
  • An important operational goal of a container terminal is to maximize the efficiency of the operation of quay cranes (QCs) that load and/or unload containers onto and from vessels. While the maximization of the efficiency of the QC operation requires minimizing the delay of yard tractors (YT) that transport containers between the storage yard and QCs, the delay is often inevitable because of traffic congestion. In this paper, we propose a method for learning a model that predicts traffic speed in a terminal using only YT operation data, even though the YT traffic is mixed with that of external trucks. Without any information on external truck traffic, we could still make a reasonable traffic forecast because the YT operation data contains information on the YT routes in the near future. The results of simulation experiments showed that the model learned by the proposed method could predict traffic speed with significant accuracy.

A Study on the AI Model for Prediction of Demand for Cold Chain Distribution of Drugs (의약품 콜드체인 유통 수요 예측을 위한 AI 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Hee-young Kim;Gi-hwan Ryu;Jin Cai ;Hyeon-kon Son
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.763-768
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, the existing statistical method (ARIMA) and machine learning method (Informer) were developed and compared to predict the distribution volume of pharmaceuticals. It was found that a machine learning-based model is advantageous for daily data prediction, and it is effective to use ARIMA for monthly prediction and switch to Informer as the data increases. The prediction error rate (RMSE) was reduced by 26.6% compared to the previous method, and the prediction accuracy was improved by 13%, resulting in a result of 86.2%. Through this thesis, we find that there is an advantage of obtaining the best results by ensembleing statistical methods and machine learning methods. In addition, machine learning-based AI models can derive the best results through deep learning operations even in irregular situations, and after commercialization, performance is expected to improve as the amount of data increases.

Utilizing the GOA-RF hybrid model, predicting the CPT-based pile set-up parameters

  • Zhao, Zhilong;Chen, Simin;Zhang, Dengke;Peng, Bin;Li, Xuyang;Zheng, Qian
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.113-127
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    • 2022
  • The undrained shear strength of soil is considered one of the engineering parameters of utmost significance in geotechnical design methods. In-situ experiments like cone penetration tests (CPT) have been used in the last several years to estimate the undrained shear strength depending on the characteristics of the soil. Nevertheless, the majority of these techniques rely on correlation presumptions, which may lead to uneven accuracy. This research's general aim is to extend a new united soft computing model, which is a combination of random forest (RF) with grasshopper optimization algorithm (GOA) to the pile set-up parameters' better approximation from CPT, based on two different types of data as inputs. Data type 1 contains pile parameters, and data type 2 consists of soil properties. The contribution of this article is that hybrid GOA - RF for the first time, was suggested to forecast the pile set-up parameter from CPT. In order to do this, CPT data and related bore log data were gathered from 70 various locations across Louisiana. With an R2 greater than 0.9098, which denotes the permissible relationship between measured and anticipated values, the results demonstrated that both models perform well in forecasting the set-up parameter. It is comprehensible that, in the training and testing step, the model with data type 2 has finer capability than the model using data type 1, with R2 and RMSE are 0.9272 and 0.0305 for the training step and 0.9182 and 0.0415 for the testing step. All in all, the models' results depict that the A parameter could be forecasted with adequate precision from the CPT data with the usage of hybrid GOA - RF models. However, the RF model with soil features as input parameters results in a finer commentary of pile set-up parameters.

A gene expression programming-based model to predict water inflow into tunnels

  • Arsalan Mahmoodzadeh;Hawkar Hashim Ibrahim;Laith R. Flaih;Abed Alanazi;Abdullah Alqahtani;Shtwai Alsubai;Nabil Ben Kahla;Adil Hussein Mohammed
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.65-72
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    • 2024
  • Water ingress poses a common and intricate geological hazard with profound implications for tunnel construction's speed and safety. The project's success hinges significantly on the precision of estimating water inflow during excavation, a critical factor in early-stage decision-making during conception and design. This article introduces an optimized model employing the gene expression programming (GEP) approach to forecast tunnel water inflow. The GEP model was refined by developing an equation that best aligns with predictive outcomes. The equation's outputs were compared with measured data and assessed against practical scenarios to validate its potential applicability in calculating tunnel water input. The optimized GEP model excelled in forecasting tunnel water inflow, outperforming alternative machine learning algorithms like SVR, GPR, DT, and KNN. This positions the GEP model as a leading choice for accurate and superior predictions. A state-of-the-art machine learning-based graphical user interface (GUI) was innovatively crafted for predicting and visualizing tunnel water inflow. This cutting-edge tool leverages ML algorithms, marking a substantial advancement in tunneling prediction technologies, providing accuracy and accessibility in water inflow projections.

Improved Deep Learning-based Approach for Spatial-Temporal Trajectory Planning via Predictive Modeling of Future Location

  • Zain Ul Abideen;Xiaodong Sun;Chao Sun;Hafiz Shafiq Ur Rehman Khalil
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • v.18 no.7
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    • pp.1726-1748
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    • 2024
  • Trajectory planning is vital for autonomous systems like robotics and UAVs, as it determines optimal, safe paths considering physical limitations, environmental factors, and agent interactions. Recent advancements in trajectory planning and future location prediction stem from rapid progress in machine learning and optimization algorithms. In this paper, we proposed a novel framework for Spatial-temporal transformer-based feed-forward neural networks (STTFFNs). From the traffic flow local area point of view, skip-gram model is trained on trajectory data to generate embeddings that capture the high-level features of different trajectories. These embeddings can then be used as input to a transformer-based trajectory planning model, which can generate trajectories for new objects based on the embeddings of similar trajectories in the training data. In the next step, distant regions, we embedded feedforward network is responsible for generating the distant trajectories by taking as input a set of features that represent the object's current state and historical data. One advantage of using feedforward networks for distant trajectory planning is their ability to capture long-term dependencies in the data. In the final step of forecasting for future locations, the encoder and decoder are crucial parts of the proposed technique. Spatial destinations are encoded utilizing location-based social networks(LBSN) based on visiting semantic locations. The model has been specially trained to forecast future locations using precise longitude and latitude values. Following rigorous testing on two real-world datasets, Porto and Manhattan, it was discovered that the model outperformed a prediction accuracy of 8.7% previous state-of-the-art methods.