Implementation of integrated monitoring system for trace and path prediction of infectious disease (전염병의 경로 추적 및 예측을 위한 통합 정보 시스템 구현)
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- Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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- v.14 no.5
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- pp.69-76
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- 2013
The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.
Moderate hypothermic cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) has commonly been used in cardiac surgery. Several cardiac centers recently practice normothermic CPB in cardiac surgery, However, the clinical effect and safety of normothermic CPB on cerebral metabolism are not established and not fully understood. This study was prospectively designed to evaluate the clinical influence of normothermic CPB on brain metabolism and to compare it with that of moderate hypothermic CPB. Material and Method: Thirty-six adult patients scheduled for elective cardiac surgery were randomized to receive normothermic (nasopharyngeal temperature ＞34.5
BACKGROUND: Hydroponics is one of the methods for evaluating plant production using the inorganic nutrient solutions, which is applied under the artificial light conditions of plant factory system. However, the application of the conventional inorganic nutrients for hydroponics caused several environmental problems: waste from culture mediums and high nitrate concentration in plants. Organic nutrients are generally irrigated as a supplementary fertilizer for plant growth promotion under field or greenhouse conditions. Hydroponic culture using organic nutrients derived from the agricultural by-products such as dumped stems, leaves or immature fruits is rarely considered in plant factory system. Effect of organic or conventional inorganic nutrient solutions on the growth and nutrient absorption pattern of green and red leaf lettuces was investigated in this experiment under fluorescent lamps (FL) and mixture Light-Emitting Diodes (LEDs). METHODS AND RESULTS: Single solution of tomatoes (TJ) and kales (K) deriving from agricultural by-products including leaves or stems and its mixed solution (mixture ration 1:1) with conventional inorganic Yamazaki (Y) were supplied for hydroponics under the plant factory system. The Yamazaki solution was considered as a control. 'Jeockchima' and 'Cheongchima' lettuce seedlings (Lactuca sativa L.) were used as plant materials. The seedlings which developed 2~3 true leaves were grown under the light qualities of FL and mixed LED lights of blue plus red plus white of 1:2:1 mixture in energy ratio for 35 days. Light intensity of the light sources was controlled at 180 μmol/㎡/s on the culture bed. The single and mixture nutrient solutions of organic and/or inorganic components which controlled at 1.5 dS/m EC and 5.8 pH were regularly irrigated by the deep flow technique (DFT) system on the culture gutters. Number of unfolded leaves of the seedlings grown under the single or mixed nutrient solutions were significantly increased compared to the conventional Y treatment. Leaf extension of 'Jeockchima' under the mixture LED radiation condition was not affected by Y and YK or YTJ mixture treatments. SPAD value in 'Jeockchima' leaves exposed by FL under the YK mixture medium was approximately 45 % higher than under conventional Y treatment. Otherwise, the maximum SPAD value in the leaves of 'Cheongchima' seedlings was shown in YK treatment under the mixture LED lights. NO3-N contents in Y treatment treated with inorganic nutrient at the end of the experiment were up to 75% declined rather than increased over 60 % in the K and TJ organic treatment. CONCLUSION: Growth of the seedlings was affected by the mixture treatments of the organic and inorganic solutions, although similar or lower dry weight was recorded than in the inorganic treatment Y under the plant factory system. Treatment Y containing the highest NO3-N content among the considered nutrients influenced growth increment of the seedlings comparing to the other nutrients. However effect of the higher NO3-N content in the seedling growth was different according to the light qualities considered in the experiment as shown in leaf expansion, pigmentation or dry weight promotion under the single or mixed nutrients.
To evaluate the hemodynamic changes and the predictive factors of the clinical outcome in pediatric patients with moyamoya disease, we analyzed pre/post basal/acetazolamide stress brain perfusion SPECT with automated volume of interest (VOIs) method. Methods: Total fifty six (M:F = 33:24, age
The intermittent freshwater discharge has an critical influence upon the biophysical environments and the ecosystems of the Yeongsan Estuary where the estuary dam altered the continuous mixing of saltwater and freshwater. Though freshwater discharge is controlled by human, the extreme events are mainly driven by the heavy rainfall in the river basin, and provide various impacts, depending on its magnitude and frequency. This research aims to evaluate the magnitude and frequency of extreme freshwater discharges, and to establish the magnitude-frequency relationships between basin-wide rainfall and freshwater inflow. Daily discharge and daily basin-averaged rainfall from Jan 1, 1997 to Aug 31, 2010 were used to determine the relations between discharge and rainfall. Consecutive daily discharges were grouped into independent events using well-defined event-separation algorithm. Partial duration series were extracted to obtain the proper probability distribution function for extreme discharges and corresponding rainfall events. Extreme discharge events over the threshold 133,656,000
By the activation of ovary hormone, many morphological changes occur in the epithelial cell lines and muscle cells in rat uterus. These two cells in uterus are important to the implantation of embryo, maintaining pregnancy and starting parturition. One important change associated with the morphological change of these two cells in uterus is the change on prostaglandin(PG) metabolism. Its presence and synthesis in endometriurn and myometrium in uterus affects estrous cycle and the start of embryo implantation in uterus. It also performs as an important modulator in parturition. So the abnormally weak expression of PG causes difficulty during labor and over-expression causes pre-term labor. PG biosynthesis starts from either free or liberated arachidonic acids from membrane phospholipid by phospholipase. Such arachidonic acids are converted into PG catalyzed by Cyclooxygenase. Under normal physiological condition, Cyclooxygenase-1(COX-1) having 602 units of amino acids controls the synthesis of PG. It acts as a local hormone regulating vasomodulation of blood flow, flexible muscle movement, increasing the blood permeability and contributing the protective role in preserving integrity of the stomach lining and Cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) is induced by the inflammation, pregnancy and increased its expression until parturition. Lipid metabolite like PG is located in uterine and expression of COX-2 increased with pregnancy. Increased expression of COX proteins in epithelial cells and myometrial cells are told to increase the muscle contractility in uterus but decreased right after the labor in rat. It is a good sign indicating that COX proteins are deeply related to the start of labor. Currently, Several studies report the use of PG and COX-2 inhibitor as medication for controlled abortion or to prevent pre-term labor but they entail various side-effects. Our study proposed to suggest use of acupuncture as an another mediator to control abortion or pre-term labor without causing unnecessary side-effects by those medicines. Two acupuncture sites, LI-4 & SP-6 were selected due to their known efficacy. From the immunohistochemical staining of COX-2, normal expression of COX-2 protein in nonpregnant SD rat's uterus revealed that COX-2 protein was primarily detected in the lumina epithelial lining and in the epithelial cell lining contacting the stromal cells. High resolution optical microscopic scanning revealed distinguishable staining in the myometrial mucosa. LI-4 acupuncture administered nonpregnant rat's uterus showed strong expression for COX-2 in endometrium contacted with lumina epithelial lining of rat uterus and in myometrial mucosa. Stromal cells showed more staining than untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus and stronger staining in stromal cells contacting myometrial layer compared to untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus. SP-6 acupuncture administered nonpregnant rat's uterus showed weak expression for COX-2 in myometrial layers and stromal cells but no staining was visible in lumina epitheliai and glandular epithelial cells. Few stromal cells and myometrial mucosa were positively stained for COX-2. Pregnant SD rat's uterus was also immunostained for COX-2 expression after 18 days of pregnancy. Unlike to untreated nonpregnant rat's uterus, luminal epithelial cells were not positively stained for COX-2 but stronger staining for COX-2 was revealed in stromal cells. LI-4 acupunctured SD rat's uterus had very strong expression of COX-2 in luminal epithelial lining. Few stromal cells showed stronger positive COX-2 staining and myometrial layers also showed more expression than untreated pregnant rat. SP-6 acupuncture administered pregnant SD rat's uterus showed positive expression of COX-2 in epithelial cells of luminal mucosa layer but weaker than that of LI-4 acupuncture treatment's case. However, strong positive staining was revealed in stromal mucosa and myometrial layers. Virgin SD rat's uterus motility index during LI-4 acupuncture was 66.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.0197) compared to its motility before the acupuncture treatment but the motility index was slighdy elevated up to 79.58 % (Prob〉T = 0.1175) after the acupuncture. During the SP-6 acupuncture treatment for 30 minutes, uterus motility index was 90.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.1832) showing lesser decrement but consequently reached similar motility index decreasal to 79.95 % (Prob〉T = 0.0215) after the acupuncture treatment as LI-4 showed. LI-4 acupuncture tend to be a quick treatment to reducing the uterus motility in a virgin rat but eventually both two acupuncture administration created very similar reduction of uterus motility seeing the index after the both acupunctures. The uterus movement monitored during the LI-4 acupuncture administered for 30 minutes, Pregnant SD rat showed decreased motility down to 77.90 % (Prob〉 T = 0.0076) compared to uterus motility before the acupuncture and it continuously decreased down to 71.81 %(Prob〉T = 0.0214) after the removal of needle. The statistical analysis using paired t-test showed significance difference for both two motility indexs at =0.05. SP-6 acupuncture administered to pregnant SD rat also had similar pattern of decreasing uterus motility index down to 74.70 % (Prob〉T = 0.1730) during the initial 30 minutes acupuncture administration and it was continuously lowered to 71.52 % (Prob〉T = 0.0155) after the acupuncture. The paired t-test resuit for SP-6 suggest prompt response of uterus motility index to the SP-6 acupuncture treatment but consequently reached same level of inducing the motility reduction as LI-4 at =0.05 level.
Just before the Korean War, the total number of the North Korean troops was 198,380, while that of the ROK(Republic of Korea) army troops 105,752. That is, the total number of the ROK army troops at that time was 53.3% of the total number of the North Korean army. As of December 2008, the total number of the North Korean troops is estimated to be 1,190,000, while that of the ROK troops is 655,000, so the ROK army maintains 55.04% of the total number of the North Korean troops. If the ROK army continues to reduce its troops according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the total number of its troops will be 517,000 m 2020. If North Korea maintains the current status(l,190,000 troops), the number of the ROK troops will be 43.4% of the North Korean army. In terms of units, just before the Korean War, the number of the ROK army divisions and regiments was 80% and 44.8% of North Korean army. As of December 2008, North Korea maintains 86 divisions and 69 regiments. Compared to the North Korean army, the ROK army maintains 46 Divisions (53.4% of North Korean army) and 15 regiments (21.3% of North Korean army). If the ROK army continue to reduce the military units according to [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of ROK army divisions will be 28(13 Active Division, 4 Mobilization Divisions and 11 Local Reserve Divisions), while that of the North Korean army will be 86 in 2020. In that case, the number of divisions of the ROK army will be 32.5% of North Korean army. During the Korean war, North Korea suddenly invaded the Republic of Korea and occupied its capital 3 days after the war began. At that time, the ROK army maintained 80% of army divisions, compared to the North Korean army. The lesson to be learned from this is that, if the ROK army is forced to disperse its divisions because of the simultaneous invasion of North Korea and attack of guerrillas in home front areas, the Republic of Korea can be in a serious military danger, even though it maintains 80% of military divisions of North Korea. If the ROK army promotes the plans in [Military Reform Plan 2020], the number of military units of the ROK army will be 32.5% of that of the North Korean army. This ratio is 2.4 times lower than that of the time when the Korean war began, and in this case, 90% of total military power should be placed in the DMZ area. If 90% of military power is placed in the DMZ area, few troops will be left for the defense of home front. In addition, if the ROK army continues to reduce the troops, it can allow North Korea to have asymmetrical superiority in military force and it will eventually exert negative influence on the stability and peace of the Korean peninsular. On the other hand, it should be reminded that, during the Korean War, the Republic of Korea was attacked by North Korea, though it kept 53.3% of troops, compared to North Korea. It should also be reminded that, as of 2008, the ROK army is defending its territory with the troops 55.04% of North Korea. Moreover, the national defense is assisted by 25,120 troops of the US Forces in Korea. In case the total number of the ROK troops falls below 43.4% of the North Korean army, it may cause social unrest about the national security and may lead North Korea's misjudgement. Besides, according to Lanchester strategy, the party with weaker military power (60% compared to the party with stronger military power) has the 4.1% of winning possibility. Therefore, if we consider the fact that the total number of the ROK army troops is 55.04% of that of the North Korean army, the winning possibility of the ROK army is not higher than 4.1%. If the total number of ROK troops is reduced to 43.4% of that of North Korea, the winning possibility will be lower and the military operations will be in critically difficult situation. [Military Reform Plan 2020] rums at the reduction of troops and units of the ground forces under the policy of 'select few'. However, the problem is that the financial support to achieve this goal is not secured. Therefore, the promotion of [Military Reform Plan 2020] may cause the weakening of military defence power in 2020. Some advanced countries such as Japan, UK, Germany, and France have promoted the policy of 'select few'. However, what is to be noted is that the national security situation of those countries is much different from that of Korea. With the collapse of the Soviet Unions and European communist countries, the military threat of those European advanced countries has almost disappeared. In addition, the threats those advanced countries are facing are not wars in national level, but terrorism in international level. To cope with the threats like terrorism, large scaled army trops would not be necessary. So those advanced European countries can promote the policy of 'select few'. In line with this, those European countries put their focuses on the development of military sections that deal with non-military operations and protection from unspecified enemies. That is, those countries are promoting the policy of 'select few', because they found that the policy is suitable for their national security environment. Moreover, since they are pursuing common interest under the European Union(EU) and they can form an allied force under NATO, it is natural that they are pursing the 'select few' policy. At present, NATO maintains the larger number of troops(2,446,000) than Russia(l,027,000) to prepare for the potential threat of Russia. The situation of japan is also much different from that of Korea. As a country composed of islands, its prime military focus is put on the maritime defense. Accordingly, the development of ground force is given secondary focus. The japanese government promotes the policy to develop technology-concentrated small size navy and air-forces, instead of maintaining large-scaled ground force. In addition, because of the 'Peace Constitution' that was enacted just after the end of World War II, japan cannot maintain troops more than 240,000. With the limited number of troops (240,000), japan has no choice but to promote the policy of 'select few'. However, the situation of Korea is much different from the situations of those countries. The Republic of Korea is facing the threat of the North Korean Army that aims at keeping a large-scale military force. In addition, the countries surrounding Korea are also super powers containing strong military forces. Therefore, to cope with the actual threat of present and unspecified threat of future, the importance of maintaining a carefully calculated large-scale military force cannot be denied. Furthermore, when considering the fact that Korea is in a peninsular, the Republic of Korea must take it into consideration the tradition of continental countries' to maintain large-scale military powers. Since the Korean War, the ROK army has developed the technology-force combined military system, maintaining proper number of troops and units and pursuing 'select few' policy at the same time. This has been promoted with the consideration of military situation in the Koran peninsular and the cooperation of ROK-US combined forces. This kind of unique military system that cannot be found in other countries can be said to be an insightful one for the preparation for the actual threat of North Korea and the conflicts between continental countries and maritime countries. In addition, this kind of technology-force combined military system has enabled us to keep peace in Korea. Therefore, it would be desirable to maintain this technology-force combined military system until the reunification of the Korean peninsular. Furthermore, it is to be pointed out that blindly following the 'select few' policy of advanced countries is not a good option, because it is ignoring the military strategic situation of the Korean peninsular. If the Republic of Korea pursues the reduction of troops and units radically without consideration of the threat of North Korea and surrounding countries, it could be a significant strategic mistake. In addition, the ROK army should keep an eye on the fact the European advanced countries and Japan that are not facing direct military threats are spending more defense expenditures than Korea. If the ROK army reduces military power without proper alternatives, it would exert a negative effect on the stable economic development of Korea and peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsular. Therefore, the desirable option would be to focus on the development of quality of forces, maintaining proper size and number of troops and units under the technology-force combined military system. The tableau above shows that the advanced countries like the UK, Germany, Italy, and Austria spend more defense expenditure per person than the Republic of Korea, although they do not face actual military threats, and that they keep achieving better economic progress than the countries that spend less defense expenditure. Therefore, it would be necessary to adopt the merits of the defense systems of those advanced countries. As we have examined, it would be desirable to maintain the current size and number of troops and units, to promote 'select few' policy with increased defense expenditure, and to strengthen the technology-force combined military system. On the basis of firm national security, the Republic of Korea can develop efficient policies for reunification and prosperity, and jump into the status of advanced countries. Therefore, the plans to reduce troops and units in [Military Reform Plan 2020] should be reexamined. If it is difficult for the ROK army to maintain its size of 655,000 troops because of low birth rate, the plans to establish the prompt mobilization force or to adopt drafting system should be considered for the maintenance of proper number of troops and units. From now on, the Republic of Korean government should develop plans to keep peace as well as to prepare unexpected changes in the Korean peninsular. For the achievement of these missions, some options can be considered. The first one is to maintain the same size of military troops and units as North Korea. The second one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea in terms of military force index. The third one is to maintain the same level of military power as North Korea, with the combination of the prompt mobilization force and the troops in active service under the system of technology-force combined military system. At present, it would be not possible for the ROK army to maintain such a large-size military force as North Korea (1,190,000 troops and 86 units). So it would be rational to maintain almost the same level of military force as North Korea with the combination of the troops on the active list and the prompt mobilization forces. In other words, with the combination of the troops in active service (60%) and the prompt mobilization force (40%), the ROK army should develop the strategies to harmonize technology and forces. The Korean government should also be prepared for the strategic flexibility of USFK, the possibility of American policy change about the location of foreign army, radical unexpected changes in North Korea, the emergence of potential threat, surrounding countries' demand for Korean force for the maintenance of regional stability, and demand for international cooperation against terrorism. For this, it is necessary to develop new approaches toward the proper number and size of troops and units. For instance, to prepare for radical unexpected political or military changes in North Korea, the Republic of Korea should have plans to protect a large number of refugees, to control arms and people, to maintain social security, and to keep orders in North Korea. From the experiences of other countries, it is estimated that 115,000 to 230,000 troops, plus ten thousands of police are required to stabilize the North Korean society, in the case radical unexpected military or political change happens in North Korea. In addition, if the Republic of Korea should perform the release of hostages, control of mass destruction weapons, and suppress the internal wars in North Korea, it should send 460,000 troops to North Korea. Moreover, if the Republic of Korea wants to stop the attack of North Korea and flow of refugees in DMZ area, at least 600,000 troops would be required. In sum, even if the ROK army maintains 600,000 troops, it may need additional 460,000 troops to prepare for unexpected radical changes in North Korea. For this, it is necessary to establish the prompt mobilization force whose size and number are almost the same as the troops in active service. In case the ROK army keeps 650,000 troops, the proper number of the prompt mobilization force would be 460,000 to 500,000.