• Title/Summary/Keyword: Floods

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Derivation of Design Floods by the Probability Weighted Moments in the Wakeby Distribution (Wakeby 분포모형의 확률가중모멘트기법에 의한 설계홍수량 유도)

  • 이순혁;송기헌;맹승진;류경식;지호근
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this study is to derive optimal design floods by the Wakeby distribution model using the probability weighted moments. Parameters for the Wakeby distribution were estimated by the probability weighted moments for the annual flood flows of the applied watersheds. Design floods obtained by the Wakeby and GEV distributions were compared by the relative mean errors, relative absolute errors and root mean square errors. In general, it has shown that the design floods by the Wakeby distribution using the methods of the probability weighted moments are closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by the GEV distribution.

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Derivation of Design Floods by the Probability Weighted Moments in the Wakeby Distribution (Wakeby 분포모형의 확률가중모멘트기법에 의한 설계홍수량 유도(수공))

  • 송기헌;이순혁;박종화;맹승진;류경식;지호근
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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    • 2000.10a
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    • pp.352-358
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    • 2000
  • The objective of this study is to derive optimal design floods by the Wakeby distribution using the probability weighted moments. parameters for the Wakeby distribution were estimated by the probability weighted moments for the annual flood flows of the applied watersheds. Design floods obtained by the Wakeby and GEV distributions were compared by the relative mean errors, relative absolute errors and root mean square errors. In general, it has shown that the design floods by the Wakeby distribution using the methods of the probability weighted moments are closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by the GEV distribution.

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Development of flood hazard and risk maps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, key study of the Zujevina River

  • Emina, Hadzic;Giuseppe Tito, Aronica;Hata, Milisic;Suvada, Suvalija;Slobodanka, Kljucanin;Ammar, Saric;Suada, Sulejmanovic;Fehad, Mujic
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • v.11 no.6
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    • pp.505-524
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    • 2022
  • Floods represent extreme hydrological phenomena that affect populations, environment, social, political, and ecological systems. After the catastrophic floods that have hit Europe and the World in recent decades, the flood problem has become more current. At the EU level, a legal framework has been put in place with the entry into force of Directive 2007/60/EC on Flood Risk Assessment and Management (Flood Directive). Two years after the entry into force of the Floods Directive, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), has adopted a Regulation on the types and content of water protection plans, which takes key steps and activities under the Floods Directive. The "Methodology for developing flood hazard and risk maps" (Methodology) was developed for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, following the methodology used in the majority of EU member states, but with certain modifications to the country's characteristics. Accordingly, activities for the preparation of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment for each river basin district were completed in 2015 for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Activities on the production of hazard maps and flood risk maps are in progress. The results of probable climate change impact model forecasts should be included in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans, which is the subsequent phase of implementing the Flood Directive. By the foregoing, the paper will give an example of the development of the hydrodynamic model of the Zujevina River, as well as the development of hazard and risk maps. Hazard and risk maps have been prepared for medium probability floods of 1/100 as well as for high probability floods of 1/20. The results of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) recording were used to create a digital terrain model (DMR). It was noticed that there are big differences between the flood maps obtained by recording LiDAR techniques in relation to the previous flood maps obtained using georeferenced topographic maps. Particular attention is given to explaining the Methodology applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The Development and Evaluation of a Simple Semi-Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire Using the Contribution of Specific Foods to Absolute Intake and Between-Person Variation of Nutrient Consumption (영양소 섭취의 주요급원식품과 주요변이식품들을 이용한 간소화된 반정량 빈도 조사 도구의 개발 및 평가)

  • Kim, Mi-Yang;Suh, Il;Nam, Chung-Mo;Yoon, Jee-Young;Shim, Jee-Seon;Oh, Kyung-Won
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.250-262
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    • 2002
  • This study was conducted to develop a simple flood frequency questionnaire (FFQ) based on the results of contributions of specific floods to absolute intake and between-person variance in nutrients using semi-quantitative FFQ with 93 flood items. The subjects were 554 healthy adults for development of a simple FFQ, and 37 students for a validation test of a developed simple FFQ. The contribution of specific floods to 80% absolute nutrient intake was measured by assessing their percentage in total consumption of a nutrient. To assess the contributions of floods to the between-person variance in the intake of each specific nutrient, stepwise multiple regressions were performed. The number of floods necessary to account for the respective 80% of absolute intake was 11-36, depending on the nutrient, while flower floods (5-16 floods) were required for the corresponding percentage of between-person variation for all nutrients. Important floods for between-person variance include Tangsuyuk (pork) and snacks for energy and fat, fish for protein and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and snacks for carbohydrates. Spearman correlation coefficients between 93-itemed FFQ and 63-itemed FFQ ranged from 0.91 for vitamin A to 0.99 for fat in the population data used in developing a simple FFQ. Also, the correlation coefficients between the two FFQs were 0.82-7.92 in the population for the validation test. This study suggests that useful information on dietary intake could be obtained using a simple semi-quantitative FFQ in a large-scale dietary survey in Korea.

Estimating design floods in ungauged watersheds through regressive adjustment of flood quantiles from the design rainfall - runoff analysis method (설계강우-유출 관계 분석법에 의한 확률홍수량의 회귀보정을 통한 미계측 유역의 설계홍수량 산정)

  • Chae, Byung-Seok;Lee, Jin-Young;Ahn, Jae-Hyun;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.9
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    • pp.627-635
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    • 2017
  • It is required to estimate reliable design floods for hydraulic structures in order to respond more effectively to recent climate change. In this study, differences of design floods that were estimated the flood frequency analysis (FFA) and the design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) were analyzed. In Korea, due to lack of measured flood data, the DRRA method is used in practice to determine the design floods. However, assuming the design floods estimated by the FFA as true values, the DRRA method over estimated the design floods by 79%. Thus, this study proposed a practical method to estimated design flood in ungauaged watersheds through regressive adjustment of flood quantiles estimated from the DRRA method. To this end, after investigating the differences between design floods acquired from the FFA and the DRRA method, nonlinear regression analyses were performed to develop the adjustment formulas for 8 large-dam watersheds. Applying the adjustment formula, the accuracy was improved by 65.0% on average over the DRRA method. In addition, when considering the watershed size, the adjustment formula increases the accuracy by 2.1%p on average over when not considering the watershed size.

Evaluating appropriateness of the design methodology for urban sewer system (도시 하수관거 설계 방법의 적정성 평가)

  • Park, Ju-Hyun;Kim, Seon-Ho;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.52 no.6
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    • pp.411-420
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    • 2019
  • The objective of this study is to evaluate the appropriateness of methodology for designing urban sewer system using a rational method-based model, Makesw and an urban runoff model, SWMM. The Gunja basin was selected as a study area and precipitation, runoff, vegetation, soil, imperviousness data were used to estimate floods. The appropriateness of methodology was evaluated based on comparison analysis between floods estimated from Makesw and SWMM. The comparison analysis was conducted between floods estimated from Makesw and SWMM, which were simulated using design rainfall and measured rainfall from past inundation events. The comparison results showed that in the case of design rainfall, the rational method-based floods were larger than that based on SWMM in all main lines. However in several branch lines, the rational method-based floods were smaller than thoes based on SWMM. In addition, for the case of measured rainfall from past inundation events, it was easily to find the main and branch lines where the rational method-based floods were smaller than SWMM based ones. Especially, the lines where rational method-based floods were underestimated, were mostly main, $1^{st}$, $2^{nd}$ lines. It was concluded that the rational method-based results were not conservative. Based on rational method (steady flow analysis) and SWMM (unsteady flow analysis), the more conservative results the method provides, the more highly it is recommended to use in designing an urban sewer system.

Derivation of Optimal Design Flood by Gamma and Generalized Gamma Distribution Models(I) - On the Gamma Distribution Models - (Gamma 및 Generalized Gamma 분포 모형에 의한 적정 설계홍수량의 유도 (I) -Gamma 분포 모형을 중심으로-)

  • 이순혁;박명근;정연수;맹승진;류경식
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.83-95
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    • 1997
  • This study was conducted to derive optimal design floods by Gamma distribution models of the annual maximum series at eight watersheds along Geum , Yeong San and Seom Jin river Systems, Design floods obtained by different methods for evaluation of parameters and for plotting positions in the Gamma distribution models were compared by the relative mean errors and graphical fit along with 95% confidence interval plotted on Gamma probability paper. The results were analyzed and summarized as follows. 1.Adequacy for the analysis of flood flow data used in this study was confirmed by the tests of Independence, Homogeneity and detection of Outliers. 2.Basic statistics and parameters were calculated by Gamma distribution models using Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. 3.It was found that design floods derived by the method of maximum likelihood and Hazen plotting position formular of two parameter Gamma distribution are much closer to those of the observed data in comparison with those obtained by other methods for parameters and for plotting positions from the viewpoint of relative mean errors. 4.Reliability of derived design floods by both maximum likelihood and method of moments with two parameter Gamma distribution was acknowledged within 95% confidence interval.

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Reliability-based approach for fragility assessment of bridges under floods

  • Raj Kamal Arora;Swagata Banerjee
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.88 no.4
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    • pp.311-322
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    • 2023
  • Riverine flood is one of the critical natural threats to river-crossing bridges. As floods are the most-occurred natural hazard worldwide, survival probability of bridges due to floods must be assessed in a speedy but precise manner. In this regard, the paper presents a reliability-based approach for a rapid assessment of failure probability of vulnerable bridge components under floods. This robust method is generic in nature and can be applied to both concrete and steel girder bridges. The developed methodology essentially utilizes limit state performance functions, expressed in terms of capacity and flood demand, for probable failure modes of various vulnerable components of bridges. Advanced First Order Reliability Method (AFORM), Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), and Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) techniques are applied for the purpose of reliability assessment and developing flood fragility curves of bridges in which flow velocity and water height are taken as flood intensity measures. Upon validating the proposed method, it is applied to a case study bridge that experiences the flood scenario of a river in Gujarat, India. Research outcome portrays how effectively and efficiently the proposed reliability-based method can be applied for a quick assessment of flood vulnerability of bridges in any flood-prone region of interest.

Uncertainty Analysis of Future Design Floods for the Yongdang Reservoir Watershed using Bootstrap Technique (Bootstrap 기법을 이용한 용당 저수지 유역의 미래 설계홍수량 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Do Gil;Kang, Moon Seong;Park, Jihoon;Ryu, Jeong Hoon
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.58 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2016
  • To estimate design floods for hydraulic structures, statistical methods has been used in the analysis of rainfall data. However, due to the lack of rainfall data in some regions, it is difficult to apply the statistical methods for estimation of design rainfall. In addition, increased uncertainty of design rainfall arising from the limited rainfall data can become an important factor for determining the design floods. The main objective of this study was to assess the uncertainty of the future design floods under RCP (representative concentration pathways) scenarios using a bootstrap technique. The technique was used in this study to quantify the uncertainty in the estimation of the future design floods. The Yongdang watershed in South Korea, 2,873 ha in size, was selected as the study area. The study results showed that the standard errors of the basin of Yongdang reservoir were calculated as 2.0~6.9 % of probable rainfall. The standard errors of RCP4.5 scenario were higher than the standard errors of RCP8.5 scenario. As the results of estimation of design flood, the ranges of peak flows considered uncertainty were 2.3~7.1 %, and were different each duration and scenario. This study might be expected to be used as one of guidelines to consider when designing hydraulic structures.

The Natural Hazards and Drought Periodicity in Korea during the Ancient Times Based on Samguksaki (삼국사기를 통해 본 한국 고대의 자연재해와 가뭄주기)

  • Yoon, Soon-Ock;Hwang, Sang-Ill
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.497-509
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    • 2009
  • Records on natural hazards such as droughts, floods, smallpox and attacks of grasshoppers are classified and analyzed during the Ancient Times(BC 57$\sim$AD 935) based on the Historical Records of the Three Kingdoms Age(Samguksaki main record), and influences on human activities and relationships of each natural hazard are studied. The strongest influences on the agricultural productivity were the drought and the influences of floods were weak. The most floods were not destructive hazards because the cultivated lands were distributed in the valley plains and the towns and villages were constructed in the area free from the floods during the Ancient Times. The attacks of grasshoppers have the high frequencies with the droughts. The smallpox of the Ancient Times has no relationships with the dearth, floods and droughts. This means that the waterborne infections happened periodically and after the unification, the infectious diseases happened continuously due to the urbanization leading the concentration of population on the capital. Two cycles of droughts are recognized, and they happened with the time intervals of approximately 500 years during approximately 1000 years in Shilla dynasty.