• Title/Summary/Keyword: Flood analysis model

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Estimating Quantiles of Extreme Rainfall Using a Mixed Gumbel Distribution Model (혼합 검벨분포모형을 이용한 확률강우량의 산정)

  • Yoon, Phil-Yong;Kim, Tae-Woong;Yang, Jeong-Seok;Lee, Seung-Oh
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.263-274
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    • 2012
  • Recently, due to various climate variabilities, extreme rainfall events have been occurring all over the world. Extreme rainfall events in Korea mainly result from the summer typhoon storms and the localized convective storms. In order to estimate appropriate quantiles for extreme rainfall, this study considered the probability behavior of daily rainfall from the typhoons and the convective storms which compose the annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). The conventional rainfall frequency analysis estimates rainfall quantiles based on the assumption that the AMRs are extracted from an identified single population, whereas this study employed a mixed distribution function to incorporate the different statistical characteristics of two types of rainfalls into the hydrologic frequency analysis. Selecting 15 rainfall gauge stations where contain comparatively large number of measurements of daily rainfall, for various return periods, quantiles of daily rainfalls were estimated and analyzed in this study. The results indicate that the mixed Gumbel distribution locally results in significant gains and losses in quantiles. This would provide useful information in designing flood protection systems.

An Analysis of Bed Change Characteristics by Bed Protection Work (바닥보호공 설치에 따른 하상변동 특성 분석)

  • Son, Ah Long;Kim, Byung Hyun;Moon, Bo Ram;Han, Kun Yeun
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.821-834
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    • 2015
  • This study presents the analysis of flow and bed change characteristics considering bed protection work built on the immediate downstream of weir to protect river bed from scouring. The study area is 37km reach from Hyunpoong station to Masuwon station including Hapcheon- Changryoung multi-function weir in the Nakdong river. CCHE2D model is calibrated and validated for evaluating the flow and bed change characteristics during Typhoon Kompasu in 2010. Three simulation conditions are set up: Case 1 is a natural channel without installation of weir. Case 2 involves an installation of weir in the natural channel. Case 3 involves an installation of weir with bed protection in the natural channel. Flood frequency (50, 100 and 200yr) is applied to each scenario to analyze the effects of bed protection work. While the sediment rate is increased in the downstream of fixed gate and sluice-type gate, river bed scouring rate is increased in the downstream of lift-type gate in Case 2 comparing with the results of Case 1. The river bed scouring is not occurred in the immediate downstream of weir (~30m) due to the effect of bed protection, but larger amount of sediment is occurred in the downstream of weir (60m~) which the bed protection is not installed comparing with the results Case 1. Through the results of simulation considering bed protection work, this study would be helpful to expect bed change and operate the weir as well as manage.

Analysis of Changes in Rainfall Frequency Under Different Thresholds and Its Synoptic Pattern (절점기준에 따른 강우빈도 변화 및 종관기후학적 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.36 no.5
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    • pp.791-803
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    • 2016
  • Recently, frequency of extreme rainfall events in South Korea has been substantially increased due to the enhanced climate variability. Korea is prone to flooding due to being surrounded by mountains, along with high rainfall intensity during a short period. In the past three decades, an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events has been observed due to enhanced climate variability and climate change. This study aimed to analyze extreme rainfalls informed by their frequency of occurrences using a long-term rainfall data. In this respect, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution (Poisson-GPD) based rainfall frequency method which allows us to simultaneously explore changes in the amount and exceedance probability of the extreme rainfall events defined by different thresholds. Additionally, this study utilized a Bayesian approach to better estimate both parameters and their uncertainties. We also investigated the synoptic patterns associated with the extreme events considered in this study. The results showed that the Poisson-GPD based design rainfalls were rather larger than those of based on the Gumbel distribution. It seems that the Poisson-GPD model offers a more reasonable explanation in the context of flood safety issue, by explicitly considering the changes in the frequency. Also, this study confirmed that low and high pressure system in the East China Sea and the central North Pacific, respectively, plays crucial roles in the development of the extreme rainfall in South Korea.

Numerical Modeling of Circulation Characteristics in the Kwangyang Estuarine System (광양만 권역의 해수순환 수치모델 실험)

  • Kim, Baek Jin;Ro, Young Jae;Jung, Kwang Young;Park, Kwang Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.253-266
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    • 2014
  • The ECOM3D is used to study the circulation characteristics and density current from the Sumjin River runoff in the Kwangyang Estuarine System, South Sea, Korea. Annual mean value of $120m^3/s$ was imposed from the Sumjin River. The numerical model results in terms of tidal height, current and salinity field show satisfactory with skill scores over 90%. The current velocity showed the range of 1~2.5 m/s during flood and ebb phases. In particular, very strong flow occur in the narrow Channels of Noryang, Daebang and Changson exceeding over 2.0 m/s. The tidal residual currents in the various locations in the Kwangyang Estuary showed the range of 1~21 cm/s, The density-driven current through the Yeosu and Noryang Channels are about 12 cm/s and 4 cm/s, respectively. The current path through the Yeosu Channel is deflected toward west Bank. Based on budget analysis of the volume flux, the volume flux through the Yeosu Channel and the Noryang Channel were estimated to be 97.4 and $22.1m^3/s$ accounting for the 81.5% and 18.5% of total flux, respectively.

Development of an Integrated Inundation Analysis Model for Urban Flood Inundation Analysis (도시지역의 침수해석을 위한 통합침수해석모형의 개발)

  • Kim, Dong-Il;Son, Ah-Long;Son, In-Ho;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.135-135
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    • 2011
  • 지구온난화와 이상기후에 따라 최근 우리나라를 둘러싼 기후패턴의 변화가 가속화되고 있으며 한반도는 장마기간이 소강상태를 보이는 반면, 장마 후 국지성 집중호우가 증가하고 태풍이 내습하는 현상이 빈번해짐으로써 홍수에 대한 위험과 피해규모도 증가하고 있다. 특히 도시지역에서는 강우규모가 배수시스템의 용량을 초과하거나, 하천수위 상승으로 관로 내에 역류가 발생하는 등 우수 배제 기능을 제대로 수행하지 못할 경우 발생하는 지표침수로 인해 심각한 인명 및 재산피해가 발생하고 있다. 실제로 현재 홍수해석 및 홍수위험지도 작성시 내수시스템을 반영하지 않아 침수면적 및 범위의 오차가 존재하며 홍수위험지도 작성시 내수범람과 외수범람을 따로 고려하는 문제점이 있다. 따라서 도시 침수 해석시 내수시스템을 반영한 정확한 침수심 및 침수면적계산뿐만 아니라 이상기후에 대비한 복합적 요인으로 인한 침수해석이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 하천해석을 위해 1차원 하천 해석 모형인 FLDWAV모형을 적용하고 가상의 제방 파제 시나리오를 통하여 외수범람 영향을 구하였으며, 배수시스템의 SWMM모형과 제내지에서 내수와 외수범람의 영향을 고려한 DEM기반의 2차원 범람해석을 연계한 Dual-Drainage모형에 대하여 외수범람 영향에 따른 흐름의 양상, 침수심, 침수위 등을 분석하였다. 개발한 모형에 대한 적용성을 검토하기 위하여 대구 신암5동 유역을 선정하였고 대상유역의 수치지도를 활용하여 정형 격자 20m 크기로 지형자료를 구성하였으며, 건물의 영향도 고려하기 위해 DEM에 건물자료를 합성하였다. 침수해석 결과 내수시스템의 영향을 고려하지 않을 때가 고려하였을 때 보다 Node(맨홀)에서의 재유입의 영향으로 인하여 최대 침수심이 더 높게 나왔으며 침수면적도 넓게 나타나는 것을 확인하였고, 기존의 홍수위험지도 작성시 외수침수와 내수침수를 구분하여 해석하였던 것을 본 연구에서 통합하여 외수범람의 영향을 고려한 통합침수해석을 실시하여 내수에서 발생할 수 있는 유출량과 내수시스템의 월류량 등에 대한 고려가 없는 외수침수만 해석시 보다 최대침수심이 더 높게 나타났으며 침수면적 또한 넓게 나타남을 알 수 있었다. 본 연구를 통해서 도시홍수, 돌발홍수 등의 발생시 정확한 도시 침수 해석이 가능하며 도시침수구역에 대한 적절한 예 경보 및 피난대책 수립에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다. 또한 국내의 홍수위험지도나 도시 침수해석과 연계하여 선행시간을 확보한 정확도 높은 홍수정보시스템 구축에 크게 기여할 것으로 판단된다.

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Estimation or Threshold Runoff on Han River Watershed (한강유역 한강유출량 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hoon;Bae, Deg-Hyo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.2 s.163
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2006
  • In this study, threshold runoff which is a hydrologic component of flash flood guidance(FFG) is estimated by using Manning's bankfull flow and Geomorphoclimatic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph(GcIUH) methods on Han River watershed. Geographic Information System(GIS) and 3' Digital Elevation Model database have been used to prepare the basin parameters of a very fine drainage area($1.02\~56.41km^2$), stream length and stream slope for threshold runoff computation. Also, cross-sectional data of basin and stream channel are collected for a statistical analysis of regional regression relationships and then those are used to estimate the stream parameters. The estimated threshold runoff values are ranged from 2 mm/h to 14 mm/6hr on Han River headwater basin with the 1-hour duration values are$97\%$ up to 8mm and the 6-hour values are $98\%$ up to 14mm. The sensitivity analysis shows that threshold runoff is more variative to the stream channel cross-sectional factors such as a stream slope, top width and friction slope than the drainage area. In comparisons between the computed threshold runoffs on this study area and the three other regions in the United States, the computed results on Han River watershed are reasonable.

A study on estimating the quick return flow from irrigation canal of agricultural water using watershed model (유역모델을 이용한 농업용수 신속회귀수량 산정 연구)

  • Lee, Jiwan;Jung, Chunggil;Kim, Daye;Maeng, Seungjin;Jeong, Hyunsik;Jo, Youngsik;Kim, Seongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.5
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    • pp.321-331
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    • 2022
  • In this study, we tried to present a method for calculating the amount of regression using a watershed modeling method that can simulate the hydrological mechanism of water balance analysis and agricultural water based on watershed unit. Using the soil water assessment tool (SWAT), a watershed water balance analysis was conducted considering the simulation of paddy fields for the Manbongcheon Standard Basin (97.34 km2), which is a representative agricultural area of the Yeongsan river basin. Before evaluating return flow, the SWAT was calibrated and validated using the daily streamflow observation data at Naju streamflow gauge station (NJ). The coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Root-Mean-Square Error (RMSE) of NJ were 0.73, 0.70, 0.64 mm/day. Based on the calibration results for three years (2015-2017), the quick return flow and the return rate compared to the water supply amount for the irrigation period (April 1 to September 30) were calculated, and the average return flow rate was 53.4%. The proposed method of this study may be used as foundation data to optimal agricultural water supply plan for rational watershed management.

A Comparative Study on Reservoir Level Prediction Performance Using a Deep Neural Network with ASOS, AWS, and Thiessen Network Data

  • Hye-Seung Park;Hyun-Ho Yang;Ho-Jun Lee; Jongwook Yoon
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.67-74
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    • 2024
  • In this paper, we present a study aimed at analyzing how different rainfall measurement methods affect the performance of reservoir water level predictions. This work is particularly timely given the increasing emphasis on climate change and the sustainable management of water resources. To this end, we have employed rainfall data from ASOS, AWS, and Thiessen Network-based measures provided by the KMA Weather Data Service to train our neural network models for reservoir yield predictions. Our analysis, which encompasses 34 reservoirs in Jeollabuk-do Province, examines how each method contributes to enhancing prediction accuracy. The results reveal that models using rainfall data based on the Thiessen Network's area rainfall ratio yield the highest accuracy. This can be attributed to the method's accounting for precise distances between observation stations, offering a more accurate reflection of the actual rainfall across different regions. These findings underscore the importance of precise regional rainfall data in predicting reservoir yields. Additionally, the paper underscores the significance of meticulous rainfall measurement and data analysis, and discusses the prediction model's potential applications in agriculture, urban planning, and flood management.

A Study for Seepage Control of Levee with a Pervious Toe Drain (제내 비탈끝 배수공을 이용한 제방의 침투조절에 관한 연구)

  • Kong, Young-San;Kang, Tae-Uk;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.45 no.6
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    • pp.569-581
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    • 2012
  • The levee is the facility which is constructed along with river for the protection of landside and for passage of water when there is a flood. When the seepage is exposed to the atmosphere on the landside surface of levee, it may eventually lead to levee failure. The seepage water may be removed from the landside surface by a properly designed drainage system. The purpose of the study is to show seepage control effect of a pervious toe drain, and to compare two drainage methods of a pervious toe drain. One is the pervious toe drain suggested by U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and the other is that suggested by Japan Institute of Construction Engineering (JICE). The levee model constructed has the following dimension: the base width is 2.6 m; the crest width is 0.4 m; the side slope 1 : 2. The water depth in the riverside is 0.5 m. The shape of the toe drain by USACE is triangular. The shape of the toe drain by JICE is rectangular. They were installed with the base length of 0.4 m. The levee model without the toe drain showed saturation surface on the land side in the experiment but not with the toe drain. The experiment results was applied to a numerical analysis model using SEEP/W to calibrate and verify. The numerical analysis results for 35 cm and 30 cm drain width showed that the drain by JICE is a little bit safer than the drain by USACE. It is also easier to construct the toe drain by JICE. The results in the study would be applied to plan the seepage control for a levee with pervious toe drain.

Bias Correction for GCM Long-term Prediction using Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (비정상성 분위사상법을 이용한 GCM 장기예측 편차보정)

  • Moon, Soojin;Kim, Jungjoong;Kang, Boosik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.46 no.8
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    • pp.833-842
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    • 2013
  • The quantile mapping is utilized to reproduce reliable GCM(Global Climate Model) data by correct systematic biases included in the original data set. This scheme, in general, projects the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) of the underlying data set into the target CDF assuming that parameters of target distribution function is stationary. Therefore, the application of stationary quantile mapping for nonstationary long-term time series data of future precipitation scenario computed by GCM can show biased projection. In this research the Nonstationary Quantile Mapping (NSQM) scheme was suggested for bias correction of nonstationary long-term time series data. The proposed scheme uses the statistical parameters with nonstationary long-term trends. The Gamma distribution was assumed for the object and target probability distribution. As the climate change scenario, the 20C3M(baseline scenario) and SRES A2 scenario (projection scenario) of CGCM3.1/T63 model from CCCma (Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis) were utilized. The precipitation data were collected from 10 rain gauge stations in the Han-river basin. In order to consider seasonal characteristics, the study was performed separately for the flood (June~October) and nonflood (November~May) seasons. The periods for baseline and projection scenario were set as 1973~2000 and 2011~2100, respectively. This study evaluated the performance of NSQM by experimenting various ways of setting parameters of target distribution. The projection scenarios were shown for 3 different periods of FF scenario (Foreseeable Future Scenario, 2011~2040 yr), MF scenario (Mid-term Future Scenario, 2041~2070 yr), LF scenario (Long-term Future Scenario, 2071~2100 yr). The trend test for the annual precipitation projection using NSQM shows 330.1 mm (25.2%), 564.5 mm (43.1%), and 634.3 mm (48.5%) increase for FF, MF, and LF scenarios, respectively. The application of stationary scheme shows overestimated projection for FF scenario and underestimated projection for LF scenario. This problem could be improved by applying nonstationary quantile mapping.