Because precipitation is influenced by various atmospheric variables, it is highly nonlinear. Although precipitation predicted by a dynamic model can be corrected by using a nonlinear Artificial Neural Network, this approach has limits such as choices of the initial weight, local minima and the number of neurons, etc. In the present paper, we correct simulated precipitation by using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, which is simple and widely used. First of all, Ensemble hindcast is conducted by the PNU/CME Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) (Park and Ahn, 2004) for the period from April to August in 1979-2005. MLR is applied to precipitation simulated by PNU/CME CGCM for the months of June (lead 2), July (lead 3), August (lead 4) and seasonal mean JJA (from June to August) of the Northeast Asian region including the Korean Peninsula $(110^{\circ}-145^{\circ}E,\;25-55^{\circ}N)$. We build the MLR model using a linear relationship between observed precipitation and the hindcasted results from the PNU/CME CGCM. The predictor variables selected from CGCM are precipitation, 500 hPa vertical velocity, 200 hPa divergence, surface air temperature and others. After performing a leave-oneout cross validation, the results are compared with the PNU/CME CGCM's. The results including Heidke skill scores demonstrate that the MLR corrected results have better forecasts than the direct CGCM result for rainfall.
Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
/
v.15
no.4
/
pp.387-400
/
2013
In this study, the slope stability analysis and the landslide hazard assessment in tunnel portal slope were carried out. First, we selected highly vulnerable areas to slope failure using the slope stability analysis and analyzed the slope failure scale. According to analyses results, high vulnerable area to slope failure is located at 485~495 m above sea level. The slope is stable in a dry condition, while it becomes unstable in rainfall condition. The analysis results of slope failure scale show that the depth of slope failure is maximum 2.1 m and the length of slope failure is 18.6 m toward the dip direction of slope. Second, we developed a 3-D simulation program to analyze characteristics of runout behavior of debris flow. The developed program was applied to highly vulnerable areas to slope failure. The result of 3-D simulation shows that debris flow moves toward the central part of the valley with the movement direction of landslide from the upper part to the lower part of the slope. 3-D simulation shows that debris flow moves down to the bottom of mountain slope with a speed of 7.74 m/s and may make damage to the tunnel portal directly after 10 seconds from slope failure.
Objective: The present study aimed to survey seasonal changes in reproductive performance of local cows receiving artificial insemination (AI) in the Pursat province of Cambodia, a tropical country, to investigate if ambient conditions affect the reproductive performance of cows as to better understand the major problems regarding cattle production. Methods: The number of cows receiving AI, resultant number of calving, and calving rate were analyzed for those receiving the first AI from 2016 to 2017. The year was divided into three seasons: cool/dry (from November to February), hot/dry (from March to June), and wet (from July to October), based on the maximal temperature and rainfall in Pursat, to analyze the relationship between ambient conditions and the reproductive performance of cows. Body condition scores (BCS) and feeding schemes were also analyzed in these seasons. Results: The number of cows receiving AI was significantly higher in the cool/dry season than the wet season. The number of calving and calving rate were significantly higher in cows receiving AI in the cool/dry season compared with the hot/dry and wet seasons. The cows showed higher BCSs in the cool/dry season compared to the hot/dry and wet seasons probably due to the seasonal changes in the feeding schemes: these cows grazed on wild grasses in the cool/dry season but fed with a limited amount of grasses and straw in the hot/dry and wet seasons. Conclusion: The present study suggests that the low number of cows receiving AI, low number of calving, and low calving rate could be mainly due to poor body condition as a result of the poor feeding schemes during the hot/dry and wet seasons. The improvement of body condition by the refinement of feeding schemes may contribute to an increase in the reproductive performance in cows during the hot/dry and wet seasons in Cambodia.
KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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v.9
no.3
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pp.97-106
/
1989
This paper is on the modeling of two-dimensional groundwater flow, which is the first step of the development of Dynamic System Model for groundwater flow and pollutant transport in subsurface porous media. The particular features of the model are its versatility and flexibility to deal with as many real-world problems as possible. Points as well as distributed sources/sinks are included to represent recharges/pumping and rainfall infiltrations. All sources/sinks can be transient or steady state. Prescribed hydraulic head on the Dirichlet boundaries and fluxes on Neumann or Cauchy boundaries can be time-dependent or constant. Sources/sinks strength over each element and node, hydraulic head at each Dirichlet boundary node and flux at each boundary segment can vary independently of each other. Either completely confined or completely unconfined aquifers, or partially confined and partially unconfined aquifers can be dealt with effectively. Discretization of a compound region with very irregular curved boundaries is made easy by including both quadrilateral and triangular elements in the formulation. Large-field problems can be solved efficiently by including a pointwise iterative solution strategy as an optional alternative to the direct elimination solution methed for the matrix equation approximating the partial differential equation of groundwater flow. The model also includes transient flow through confining leaky aquifers lying above and/or below the aquifer of interest. The model is verified against three simple cases to which analytical solutions are available. The groundwater flow model shall be combined with the model of pollutant transport in subsurface porous media. Then the combined model, with the applications of the Eigenvalue technique and the Dynamic system theory, shall be improved to the Dynamic System Model which can simulate the real groundwater flow and the pollutant transport accurately and effectively for the analyses and predictions.
Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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v.16
no.3
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pp.193-210
/
2013
This study aims to assess the slope stability variation of Jeollabuk-do drainage areas by RCM model outputs based on A1B climate change scenario and infinite slope stability model based on the specific catchment area concept. For this objective, we downscaled RCM data in time and space: from watershed scale to rain gauge scale in space and from monthly data to daily data in time and also developed the GIS-based infinite slope stability model based on the concept of specific catchment area to calculate spatially-distributed wetness index. For model parameterization, topographic, geologic, forestry digital map were used and model parameters were set up in format of grid cells($90m{\times}90m$). Finally, we applied the future daily rainfall data to the infinite slope stability model and then assess slope stability variation under the climate change scenario. This research consists of two papers: the first paper focuses on the methodologies of climate change scenario preparation and infinite slope stability model development.
An investigation was carried out to study the effect of two housing systems on physiological responses and energy expenditure of sheep in a semi-arid region of India. Two types of housing management were adopted. First was a shed- $6{\times}3\;m^2$ structure with all the four sides of 1.8 m chain link fencing with a central height of 3 m. The roof was covered with asbestos sheets and with mud floorings. Second was an open corral- $6{\times}3\;m^2$ open space with all the four sides covered with 1.8 m chain link fencing. Thirty-four (32 ewes and 2 rams) sheep of native Malpura breed aged about 18 months (body weight 28 kg ewes; 35 kg rams) were grazed together on a 35 ha plot of native range. All the sheep were grazed as a flock from 08.00 to 17.00 h during a yearlong study. The flock was divided into two groups (16 ewes+1 ram) in the evening and housed as per the systems (Shed and Open Corral). Dry and wet temperatures were recorded at 06.00 h and 21.00 h using a wet and dry bulb-thermometer both inside the shed and in the open corral and temperature humidity index (THI) was calculated. There was significant (p<0.05) difference in the THI between shed and open corral in all the seasons, indicating that shed was always warmer compared to open corral. Rectal temperature (RT) of both the groups of sheep was similar during morning as well as evening throughout the seasons. There were significant (p<0.05) differences in the skin temperature (ST) and respiration rate (RR) between the two groups at both the measurements in all the seasons. Highest energy expenditure (EE) was recorded inside the shed at 21.00 h (224 kJ/h) during monsoon and lowest at 6.00 h during winter (119 kJ/h). There was a significant (p<0.05) difference between the EE inside the shed and that in the open corral. It was concluded that housing had significant effects on the physiological responses and EE of sheep. Provision of housing at night was stressful during monsoon (with less rainfall) and summer, whereas it was protecting the sheep from acute cold during winter in a semi-arid region of India.
Changwon City first constructed riverbank filtration plants in Book-Myeon and Daesan-Myeon in Korea in the year 2001. This study evaluated hydrogeological characteristics and groundwater flow simulation between the Nakdong River and the fluvial aquifers adjacent to the river in Book-Myeon, Changwon City. The groundwater simulation calculated the influx rate from the Nakdong River and the fluvial aquifers to pumping wells through the riverbank filtration system. The groundwater flow model utilized drilling, grain size analysis, pumping test, groundwater level measurements, river water discharge and rainfall data. Hydraulic heads calculated by the steady-state model closely matched measured heads in pumping and observation wells. According to the transient flow model, using a total pumping amount of 14,000 $m^3$/day, the flux into the pumping wells from the Nakdong River accounts for 8,390 $m^3$/day (60%), 590 $m^3$/day (4%) is from the aquifer in the rectilinea. direction to the Nakdong River, and 5,020 $m^3$/day (36%) is from the aquifer in the parallel direction to the Nakdong River. The particle tracking analysis shows that a particle from the Nakdong River moves toward the pumping wells at a rate of about 1.85 m/day and a particle from the aquifer moves toward the pumping wells at a rate of about 0.75 m/day. This study contributes to surface water/groundwater management modeling, and helps in understanding, how seasonal change affects pumping rates, water quality, and natural recharge.
River restoration has recently been performed not only for the improvement of the artificial parts in the past but also for the restoration of abandoned river reaches which were blocked and isolated. For the restoration of abandoned river reaches, it is important to recover the hydraulic and ecological connectivity in the isolated space by longitudinal structures like levees. But because the assessment tools to determine whether the river restoration is performed properly are so rare at present, we aim to provide a tool for assessing ecological connectivity in a target river in this study. In the first step, one-dimensional numerical model for rainfall-runoff and channel routing was developed and then applied to the watershed of the Cheongmi Stream. In this step, a numerical model was developed to assess the restoration of connectivity. The model consists of two parts: one part is to convert the results of one-dimensional channel routing into two-dimensional spatial distribution. The other is to calculate the habitat suitability index according to time steps by using two-dimensional hydraulic features. The model was applied to a restoration area of the Cheongmi Stream. The advantage of this study is that two-dimensional hydraulic analysis can be easily obtained from one-dimensional hydraulic analysis without a complex and time-consuming two-dimensional analysis. HHS (Hydraulic Habitat Suitablility) by sections of target reaches and target species can be easily obtained using the results of this study.
In this study, field-scale half-saturated bio-filter wetland equipped with recirculation system was operated with stormwater from the paved road, and its operational performance and functions of LID-BMP were analyzed and compared with other facilities. The reduction of TSS, COD, TN, and TP were 92%, 63%, 36%, and 75%, respectively. Comparison of the reduction efficiency were carried out with respect to ratio between surface and catchment areas(SA/CA). In addition, this LID-BMP facility can reduce about 70% of pollutant by treating only 18% of total rainfall runoff. The results show that LID used for this study gave similar efficiency although its ratio was smaller. In addition, comparison study was made between synthetic fiber as a filter media and organic media, which shows that there was not any significant difference between, TSS and TP reduction, but there were large difference in COD and TN removal due to the presence and absence of release of organic carbon. Meanwhile, wetland system in this study equipped with a first-flush capture gave a higher stability in terms of treatment performance.
The objective of this study is to suggest parameter regionalization scheme which is integrated two multivariate statistical methods: principal components analysis(PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis(HCA). This technique is to apply semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model on ungauged catchments. 7 catchment characteristics (area, mean altitude, mean slope, ratio of forest, water content at saturation, field capacity and wilting point) are estimated for 109 mid-sized sub-basins. The first two components from PCA results account for 82.11% of the total variance in the dataset. Component 1 is related to the location of the catchments relevant to the altitude and Component 2 is connected with the area of these. 103 ungauged catchments are clustered using HCA as the following 6 groups: Goesan 23, Andong 6, Imha 5, Hapcheon 21, Yongdam 4, Seomjin 44. SWAT model is used to simulate runoff and the parameters of the model on the 6 gauged basins are estimated. The model parameters were regionalized for Soyang, Chungju and Daecheong dam basins which are assumed as ungauged ones. The model efficiency coefficients of the simulated inflows for these three dams were at least 0.8. These results also mean that goodness of fit is high to the observed inflows. This research will contribute to estimate and analyze hydrologic components on the ungauged catchments.
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