• Journal of Forest and Environmental Science
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.293-303
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• 2018

Sumber Jaya (54,194 hectares) is a district in West Lampung, Indonesia, located at the upper part of Tulang Bawang watershed. This watershed is one major water resource for Lampung Province, but has become a focal point of discussion because of the widespread conversion of forestland to coffee plantations and human settlements which lead to environmental and hydrological problems. This research aimed to evaluate Sumber Jaya watershed affecting by rapid land use change using hydrological methods as a base for watershed management. Nested catchment structure consisted of eight sub-catchments was employed in this research to assess scaling issues of land use change impacts on rainfall-runoff connections. Six tipping bucket rain gages were installed on the hill slopes of each sub-catchment and Parshall flumes were installed at the outlets of each sub-catchment to monitor stream flow. First, unit hydrograph that expressed the relationship of rainfall and runoff was computed using IHACRES model. Second, unit hydrograph was also constructed from observations of input and response during several significant storms with approximately equal duration. The result showed that most of the storm flow from these catchments consisted of slow flow. A maximum of about 50% of the effective rainfall became quick flow, and only less than 10% of remaining effective rainfall which was routed as slow flow contributed to hydrograph peaks; the rest was stored. Also, comparing peak responses and recession rates on the hydrograph, storm flow discharge was generally increased slowly on the rising limb and decreased rapidly on the falling limb. These responses indicated the soils in these catchments were still able to hold and store rain water.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.11
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• pp.735-743
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• 2017

With growing concerns about ever-increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, it is crucial to enhance preparedness for unprecedented extreme weathers that can bring catastrophic consequences. In this study, we proposed a stochastic framework that considers uncertainty in weather forecasts for flood analyses. First, we calibrated a simple rainfall-runoff model against observed hourly hydrographs. Then, using probability density functions of rainfall depths conditioned by 6-hourly weather forecasts, we generated many stochastic rainfall depths for upcoming 48 hours. We disaggregated the stochastic 6-hour rainfalls into an hourly scale, and input them into the runoff model to quantify a probabilistic range of runoff during upcoming 48 hours. Under this framework, we assessed two rainfall events occurred in Bocheong River Basin, South Korea in 2017. It is indicated actual flood events could be greater than expectations from weather forecasts in some cases; however, the probabilistic runoff range could be intuitive information for managing flood risks before events. This study suggests combining deterministic and stochastic methods for forecast-based flood analyses to consider uncertainty in weather forecasts.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.33 no.3
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• pp.219-232
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• 2012

The intensive observation (ProbeX-2010) was performed to investigate an urban effect on summer rainfall over the Seoul metropolitan area from 13 August to 3 September 2010. Two kinds of urban effect were detected. First, weak rainfall (${\leq}1\;mm\;hr^{-1}$) was observed more frequently in the downwind area of Seoul than any other area of the country. The high frequency of weak rainfall in the downwind area was also confirmed from the recent five years of observational data (2006-2010). Because the high frequency was more apparent in mountainous regions during nighttime, the weak rainfall seems to be caused by a combined effect of urbanization and topography. Second, sporadically, a convective system was developed rapidly in the downwind area of Seoul, causing heavy rainfall (${\geq}10\;mm\;hr^{-1}$). It can be most clearly seen in series of radar images around 1300-1500 KST 27 August 2010. We investigated in detail the synoptic and local weather and upper air conditions. As a result, not only urban-induced high sensible heat but also conditionally unstable atmosphere (especially unstable in low level) and low level moisture were pointed out as important factors that contributed to urban-induced heavy rainfall.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.34 no.4
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• pp.317-326
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• 2001

This study evaluates the errors involved in the area average rainfall amounts estimated by the arithmetic mean method, the Thiessen's weighting method, and the optimal weighting method from the estimation theory. This study was applied to the upstream part of Nam-Han river basin (upper part of Youngwal) and the following results could be obtained. First, in case the raingauges are located evenly over the basin, no obvious difference can be found in the area average rainfall amounts from the arithmetic mean method or from the Thiessen's weighting method. However, as these two methods cannot consider the spatial variability of rainfall, the estimation error could be higher when the spatial variability of rainfall is high. In our application the estimation error from the arithmetic mean method or the Thiessen's weighting method was also found to be higher than that from the method from the information theory, which considers the spatial variability of rainfall. Thus, we could conclude that for the rainy season of Korea or for the mountain area when and where the spatial variability of rainfall is high, a proper method of considering the spatial variability of rainfall should be used regardless of the basin size. The isohyetal method generally used for the large basins or the optimal weighting method from the estimation theory used in this study could be good alternatives for this case.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.339-350
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• 2011

This study developed a climate informed Bayesian nonstationary frequency model which allows us to forecast seasonal summer rainfall at Nakdong River. We constructed a 37-year summer rainfall data set from 10 weather stations within Nakdong river basin, and two climate indices from sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) were derived through correlation analysis. The selected SST and OLR have been widely acknowledged as a climate driver for summer rainfall. The developed model was applied first to the 2010-year summer rainfall (888.1 mm) in order to assure ourself. We demonstrated model performance by comparing posterior distributions. It was confirmed that the proposed model is able to produce a reasonable forecast. The forecasted value is about 858.2 mm, and the difference between forecast and observation is about 30 mm. As the second case study, 2011-year summer rainfall forecast was made using an observed winter SSTs and an assumed 50% value of OLRs. The forecasted value is 967.7 mm and associated exceedance probability over average summer rainfall 680 mm is 92.9%. In addition, 50-year return period for summer rainfall was projected through the nonstationary frequency model. An exceedance probability over 1,400 mm corresponding to the 50-year return level is about 73.7%.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2010.05a
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• pp.774-778
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• 2010

Upland erosion pollutes surface waters and often causes serious problems when deposition occurs. This study builds a sediment rating curve using the measured sediment yield and the simulated soil erosion by a GIS-embedded empirical model. The coefficient of determination ($R^2$) between the simulated soil erosion and the measurement sediment yields with rainfall amount are 0.427 for Donghyang and 0.667 for Cheonchen, but the values with rainfall intensity are 0.873 and 0.927 respectively. The data are divided into two groups: one for calibration during 2002-2005 (48 months) and the other for estimation during 2006-2008 (36 months). The first data group (2002-2005) was used to derive the SDR with an aid of soil erosion calculated by the USLE and the measured sediment yield. The mean SDR with rainfall amount is 6.273 and 3.353, respectively, while 4.799 and 2.874 for rainfall intensity. But the standard deviation (STD) with rainfall intensity is 0.930 and 0.407, which is much less than that with rainfall amount (3.746 and 2.090) for both sites. The results show the derived SDR provides reasonable accuracy and rainfall intensity gives better performance in calculating soil erosion than rainfall amount.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.54 no.12
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• pp.1329-1338
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• 2021

Rain radar provides high spatio-temporal radar rainfall that can be used as input data to short-term precipitation forecasting models. Korea Institute of Civil Engineering and Building Technology (KICT) has developed a flash flood forecasting system that is providing flash flood forecasting based on short-term rainfall forecasts estimated by the radar rainfall. Accuracy of the radar rainfall as well as the short-term rainfall forecasts, however, can deteriorate when radar polarimetric variables have error. In this study, we develope real-time program that can correct the error inherent in the radar polarimetric variables. First, effect according to the correction of the error was verified using 363 rainfall events on non real-time. The accuracy (1-NE) of the radar rainfall was approximately 70% and correlation coefficient was higher than 0.8 after correcting the error on non real-time. The accuracy (1-NE) using the real-time program was also approximately 70% after correcting the error.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.294-299
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• 2006

The Ministry of Environment in Korea has introduced Total Pollution Load Management System (TPLMS) in major 4 large rivers to protect the water quality from possible pollutants. In order to successfully achieve the TPLMS, the nonpoint source should be controled by applying the best management practices in highly polluted areas. Of the various nonpoint sources, the highways are stormwater intensive landuses because of its high imperviousness and high pollutant mass emissions. The EMC (Event Mean Concentration) is an important parameter to correctly determine the pollutant mass loadings from nonpoint sources. However, it has wide ranges because of various reasons such as first flush phenomenon, rainfall and watershed characteristics. Even though the EMC is closely related to the first flush phenomenon, the relationship have not proven until present. Therefore, in this paper, the dynamic EMC method will be introduced to clearly make the relationship between EMC and first flush phenomenon. Also by applying the dynamic EMC method to monitored data, we found that the highly concentrated stormwater runoff was washed off within 20~50 minutes storm duration. The first flush criteria for economical treatment was also determined to 5~10 mm (mean=7.4 mm) as a cumulative rainfall.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.415-421
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• 2004

Litter wastes on highway runoff are gradually being considered one of the major pollutants of concern in protecting the integrity of receiving waters for beneficial use. The California State Water Resources Control Board has identified in their 303(d) list at least 36 water bodies where trash or litter is considered a pollutant of concern. The first TMDL adopted by the Region 4 (Los Angeles area) of the California State Water Quality Control Board was for trash in the Los Angeles River. The first flush characteristic study was developed to obtain first flush water quality and litter data from representative stormwater runoff from standard highway drainage outfalls in the Los Angeles area. Total captured gross pollutants in stormwater runoff were monitored at six Southern California highway sites over two years. The gross pollutants were 90% vegetation and 10% litter. Approximately 50% of the litter was composed of biodegradable materials. The event mean concentrations show an increasing trend with antecedent dry days and a decreasing trend with total runoff volume or total rainfall. Event mean concentrations were ranged 0.0021 to 0.259g/L for wet gross pollutants and 0.0001 to 0.027g/L for wet litters. The first flush phenomenon was evaluated and the impacts of various parameters such as rainfall intensity, drainage area, peak flow rate, and antecedent dry period on litter volume and loading rates were evaluated. First flush phenomenon was generally observed for litter concentrations, but was not apparent with litter mass loading rates. Litter volume and loading rates appear to be directly related to peak storm intensity, antecedent dry days and total flow volume.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.54 no.4
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• pp.127-135
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• 2012

This paper introduced the flow forecast modeling system that a water management agency in west central Florida, Tampa Bay Water has been operated to forecast monthly rainfall and streamflow in the Tampa Bay region, Florida. We evaluated current 1-year monthly rainfall forecasts and flow forecasts and actual observations to investigate the benefits of incorporating rainfall forecasts into monthly flow forecast. Results for rainfall forecasts showed that the observed annual cycle of monthly rainfall was accurately reproduced by the $50^{th}$ percentile of forecasts. While observed monthly rainfall was within the $25^{th}$ and $75^{th}$ percentile of forecasts for most months, several outliers were found during the dry months especially in the dry year of 2007. The flow forecast results for the three streamflow stations (HRD, MB, and BS) indicated that while the 90 % confidence interval mostly covers the observed monthly streamflow, the $50^{th}$ percentile forecast generally overestimated observed streamflow. Especially for HRD station, observed streamflow was reproduced within $5^{th}$ and $25^{th}$ percentile of forecasts while monthly rainfall observations closely followed the $50^{th}$ percentile of rainfall forecasts. This was due to the historical variability at the station was significantly high and it resulted in a wide range of forecasts. Additionally, it was found that the forecasts for each station tend to converge after several months as the influence of the initial condition diminished. The forecast period to converge to simulation bounds was estimated by comparing the forecast results for 2006 and 2007. We found that initial conditions have influence on forecasts during the first 4-6 months, indicating that FMS forecasts should be updated at least every 4-6 months. That is, knowledge of initial condition (i.e., monthly flow observation in the last-recent month) provided no foreknowledge of the flows after 4-6 months of simulation. Based on the experimental flow forecasts using the observed rainfall data, we found that the 90 % confidence interval band for flow predictions was significantly reduced for all stations. This result evidently shows that accurate short-term rainfall forecasts could reduce the range of streamflow forecasts and improve forecast skill compared to employing the stochastic rainfall forecasts. We expect that the framework employed in this study using available observations could be used to investigate the applicability of existing hydrological and water management modeling system for use of stateof-the-art climate forecasts.