• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.9D no.6
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• pp.1119-1126
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• 2002

In this paper, we propose two predictive spatial data mining based on spatial statistics and apply for predicting the forest fire hazardous area. These are conditional probability and likelihood ratio methods. In these approaches, the prediction models and estimation procedures are depending un the basic quantitative relationships of spatial data sets relevant forest fire with respect to selected the past forest fire ignition areas. To make forest fire hazardous area prediction map using the two proposed methods and evaluate the performance of prediction power, we applied a FHR (Forest Fire Hazard Rate) and a PRC (Prediction Rate Curve) respectively. In comparison of the prediction power of the two proposed prediction model, the likelihood ratio method is mort powerful than conditional probability method. The proposed model for prediction of forest fire hazardous area would be helpful to increase the efficiency of forest fire management such as prevention of forest fire occurrence and effective placement of forest fire monitoring equipment and manpower.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.101-112
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• 2018

A lot of manpower and budgets are being used to prevent fires, and only a small portion of the data generated during this process is used for disaster prevention activities. This study develops a prediction model of fire occurrence probability based on data mining in order to more actively use these data for disaster prevention activities. For this purpose, variables for predicting fire occurrence probability of various buildings were selected and data of construction administrative system, national fire information system, and Korea Fire Insurance Association were collected and integrated data set was constructed. After appropriate data cleansing and preprocessing, various data mining methodologies such as artificial neural network, decision trees, SVM, and Naive Bayesian were used to develop a prediction model of the fire occurrence probability of buildings. The most accurate model among the derived models is Linear SVM model which shows 68.42% as experimental data and 63.54% as verification data and it is the best model to predict fire occurrence probability of buildings. As this study develops the prediction model which uses only the set values of the specific ranges, future studies may explore more opportunites to use various setting values not shown in this study.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.33 no.6
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• pp.9-19
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• 2019

In fire simulations for building fire safety evaluation, changes in the fire area and grid size can significantly influence the prediction results. Therefore, the effects of area changes of the fire source with identical maximum heat release rates on the prediction results of a compartment fire were investigated. The dependence of the prediction results on the grid size using the identical fire area was also examined. No significant changes were observed in the thermal and chemical characteristics of the fires with variable grid sizes, even though the fire area was changed when six or more grids were set based on the fire diameter. In addition, changes in the fire area caused significant differences in the prediction of major physical quantities associated with available safety egress time (ASET) within a compartment. However, the fire area changes did not considerably influence the overall fire characteristics outside the compartment after reaching a certain distance from the opening.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.14-20
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• 2017

A numerical study was conducted to identify the predictive performance for the bare-bead thermocouple (TC) using FDS (Fire Dynamics Simulator) in simulated thermal environments of fire. A relative prediction bias of TC temperature calculated from reverse-radiation correction by FDS was evaluated with the comparison of previous experimental data. As a result, it was identified that the TC temperatures predicted by FDS were lower than the temperatures measured by bare-bead TC for the ranges of heat flux and gas temperature considered. The relative prediction bias of TC temperature by FDS was gradually increased with the increase in radiative heat flux and also significantly increased with the decrease in the gas temperature. Quantitatively, at the gas temperature of $20^{\circ}C$, the TC temperature predicted by FDS had the relative bias of approximately -20% with the radiative heat flux of $20kW/m^2$ corresponding to thermal radiation level of the flashover. It is predicted from the present study that more accurate validation of fire modeling will be possible with the quantitative prediction bias occurred in the process of reverse-radiation correction of temperature predicted by FDS.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.255-261
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• 2013

In this paper, we developed and tested a program for prediction flash fire in a combat system. Purposes of the program are flash fire prediction of combat system for analysis vulnerability and survivability, and visualization for fire-related information. To do this, we defined critical components of the combat system which has probabilities of flash fire occurrence, and proposed Flash Fire Probability Tree which is based on Fault Tree Analysis(FTA). The program visualizes positions of critical components in combat system, positions of penetrated components, selected Flash Fire Probability Tree, temperature profile, and tables for properties of matters.

• Safety and Health at Work
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.322-334
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• 2020

Background: Spontaneous combustion of coal is one of the factors which causes direct or indirect gas and dust explosion, mine fire, the release of toxic gases, loss of reserve, and loss of miners' life. To avoid these incidents, the prediction of spontaneous combustion is essential. The safety of miner's in the mining field can be assured if the prediction of a coal fire is carried out at an early stage. Method: Adularya Underground Coal Mine which is fully mechanized with longwall mining method was selected as a case study area. The data collected for 2017, by sensors from ten gas monitoring stations were used for the simulation and prediction of a coal fire. In this study, the fuzzy logic model is used because of the uncertainties, nonlinearity, and imprecise variables in the data. For coal fire prediction, CO, O₂, N₂, and temperature were used as input variables whereas fire intensity was considered as the output variable.The simulation of the model is carried out using the Mamdani inference system and run by the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox in MATLAB. Results: The results showed that the fuzzy logic system is more reliable in predicting fire intensity with respect to uncertainties and nonlinearities of the data. It also indicates that the 1409 and 610/2B gas station points have a greater chance of causing spontaneous combustion and therefore require a precautional measure. Conclusion: The fuzzy logic model shows higher probability in predicting fire intensity with the simultaneous application of many variables compared with Graham's index.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.30 no.6
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• pp.130-136
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• 2016

A university needs to analyze and improve its curricula with the perspective of the consumer to develop a syllabus for the training of industry-demand customized human resources. Accordingly, this paper surveyed the demand of fire-related industry workers to evaluate the major fitness of the curriculum of fire risk prediction and assessment and carried out descriptive statistical analysis, factor analysis, cluster analysis, and one-way ANOVA based on the results. According to the analysis, fire-related industry workers reported that the curriculum of fire risk prediction and assessment is suitable for majors. In addition, they were greatly aware of the necessity of basic major and common major subjects among subjects of fire risk prediction and assessment. The results of this analysis will provide the basic data to improve the curriculum continuously in the future.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.1506-1514
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• 2015

In this paper, we proposed a forest fires prediction and detection system. It could provide a situation of fire prediction and detection methods using context awareness sensor. A fire occurs wide range of sensing a fire in a single camera sensor, it is difficult to detect the occurrence of a fire. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for real-time by using a temperature sensor, humidity, Co2, the flame presence information acquired and comparing the data based on multiple conditions, analyze and determine the weighting according to fire in complex situations. In addition, it is possible to differential management of intensive fire detection and prediction for required dividing the state of fire zone. Therefore we propose an algorithm to determine the prediction and detection from the fire parameters as an temperature, humidity, Co2 and the flame in real-time by using a context awareness sensor and also suggest algorithm that provide the path of fire diffusion and service the secure safety zone prediction.

• The Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Illuminating and Electrical Installation Engineers
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.71-77
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• 1995

Electrical fire in residential, commercial, and industrial areas occupies 40 percent of overall fire accidents as of the year of 1994. The causes of most electrical fires were studied and, based on this investigation, the principle of the early detection or prediction of the electrical fires is developed. The basic principle is to early detect electrical arcs or sparks caused by faulty connections and insulation failures. the structure of the prediction system based on microcontroller technique is presented.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.94 no.6
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• pp.481-487
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• 2005

In this study, a GIS model to simulate the behavior of surface forest fires was developed on the basis of forest fire growth prediction algorithm. This model consists of three modules for data-handling, simulation and report writing. The data-handling module was designed to interpret such forest fire environment factors as terrain, fuel and weather and provide sets of data required in analyzing fire behavior. The simulation module simulates the fire and determines spread velocity, fire intensity and burnt area over time associated with terrain slope, wind, effective humidity and such fuel condition factors as fuel depth, fuel loading and moisture content for fire extinction. The module is equipped with the functions to infer the fuel condition factors from the information extracted from digital vegetation map sand the fuel moisture from the weather conditions including effective humidity, maximum temperature, precipitation and hourly irradiation. The report writer has the function to provide results of a series of analyses for fire prediction. A performance test of the model with the 2002 Chungyang forest fire showed the predictive accuracy of 61% in spread rate.