• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.14 no.2
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• pp.335-349
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• 1997

본 논문에서는 우리나라 기업의 재무상태 악화(financial distress)가 성과에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석하였다. 재무상태가 악화되었을 때 성장성, 수익성 그리고 안정성 측면에서 기업이 어떻게 영향을 받는가를 분석하였고 재벌기업과 독립기업의 성과를 비교하였다. 본 논문의 분석결과에 의하면 산업에 불황이 닥칠 때 기업의 재무상태는 매출액증가율로 측정한 기업의 성장성에 어느정도 영향을 주는 것을 알 수 있다. 부채의존도가 높은 기업의 매출액증가율이 부채의존도가 낮은 기업에 비해 작은 것으로 밝혀졌다. 그러나 재무상태가 악화되어도 기업의 수익성은 별로 영향을 받지 않는 것으로 나타나고 있다. 또한 소속 산업이 불황에 빠졌을 때 재벌기업은 독립기업에 비해 2년 매출액증가율이 약 18% 정도 큰 것으로 나타났다. 재벌의 계열기업들은 내부거래, 상호지급보증 그리고 상호출자등에 의해 영업실적이 부진해도 좀체로 퇴출되지 않는 것으로 알려졌는데 본 논문의 결과는 이러한 사실과 일맥상통한다고 할 수 있다.

• East Asian Economic Review
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.357-379
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• 2015

We investigate interconnectedness and the contagion effect of default risk in Asian sovereign CDS markets since the global financial crisis. Using dynamic conditional correlation analysis, we find that there are significant co-movements in Asian sovereign CDS markets; that such co-movements tend to be larger between developing countries than between developed and developing countries; and that in the co-movements intra-regional nature is stronger than inter-regional nature. With the Spillover Index model, we measure contagion probabilities of sovereign default risk in CDS markets of seven Asian countries and find evidence of contagion effects among six of them; Japan is the exception. In addition, we find that these six countries are affected more by cross-market spillovers than by their own-market spillovers. Furthermore, a rolling-sample analysis reveals that contagion in the Asian sovereign CDS markets expands during episodes of extreme economic and financial distress, such as the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, the European financial crisis, and the US-credit downgrade.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.24 no.7
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• pp.38-53
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• 2020

Purpose - A financial crash triggers asset fire sales by foreign investors and, as a consequence, the price of domestic assets severely decreases. Domestic investors take advantage of these low prices by replacing foreign assets with domestic assets, which helps to alleviate the liquidity shock caused by foreigners. However, is the amount of capital retrenchment by domestic investors sufficient to protect the Korean economy from capital stop by foreign investors during financial crisis? This paper answers this question and suggests the implications of this phenomenon for the Korean economy. Design/methodology - We estimate the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and various financial crises such as banking, currency, debt, and inflation crises using the complementary log-log model. Specifically, we use data of gross capital flows to differentiate between the role of foreign and domestic investors in financial markets. Capital stop and retrenchment designate a sharp decrease in gross capital inflows and outflows, respectively. Findings - Capital stop is significantly associated with financial crises, especially currency and debt crises. This implies that increased risk aversion during times of financial turmoil encourages foreign investors to retrench their investments, worsening liquidity shocks. Conversely, capital retrenchment is not significantly associated with such crises. The results show that, although financial crises reduce gross capital outflows, the reduction is not as large as that with capital inflows. Originality/value - The contribution of this paper is threefold. First, this study investigates how domestic investors behave during times of financial distress by studying gross capital flows-not net capital flows. Second, we concentrate on sharp changes in capital flows during crises. Third, we examine the associations between capital stop and retrenchment and financial crises in general, not specific events.

• Management & Information Systems Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.1-23
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• 2009

Prior bankruptcy studies have established that bankrupt firm's pre-filing financial ratios are different from those of healthy firms or of randomly selected going concerns. However, they may not be sufficiently different from the financial ratios of other firms in financial distress to allow the development of a ratio-based model that predicts bankruptcy with reasonable accuracy. As the result, in the multiple discriminant model, independent variables divided firms into bankrupt firms and healthy firms are retained earnings to total asset, receivable turnover, net income to sales, financial expenses, inventory turnover, owner's equity to total asset, cash flow to current liability, and current asset to current liability. Moreover four variables Retained earnings to total asset, net income to sales, total asset turnover, owner's equity to total asset indicate that these valuables classify bankrupt firms and distress firms. On the other hand, Owner's Equity to borrowed capital, Ordinary income to Net Sales, Operating Income to Total Asset, Total Asset Turnover and Inventory Turnover are selected to predict bankruptcy possibility in the Logistic regression model.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.3 no.4
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• pp.333-341
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• 2012

The financial resources for public land banking enacted by Public Land Banking Act (2009) are LH (Korea Land and Housing Corporation) contributions, LH Bond, Land Bank revenues, etc. But, in real, the efficient funding resource is mainly LH bond. In these days, LH has experienced deep financial distress, and difficulties in issuing it's bond. Therefore, Land Banking project also has been inactivated because of poor financial resources. As Land Banking project depending its financial resources mainly on LH Bond does not have financial sustainability, it is necessary to reform the fundamental funding structure. This is the starting point for the topic of this paper. This paper suggests to reform the funding structure, and to introduce Land Bank Bond guaranteed by Government, and also to modify the accounting method of Land Bank to separate the Land Bank accounts with LH accounts. The funding structure reform can be summarized as follows; In early stage of the Land Banking project, sufficient government support by guaranteeing the Land Bank Bond is necessary. Gradually, the portion of LH's contribution can be increased in company with LH's financial distress being solved and administration being normalized. When the project reached on the stage of maturity, cash inflows by selling the reserved land can exceed the cash outflows for reserve new land. To introduce the Land Bank Bond guaranteed by government, the Public Land Banking Act (2009) should be revised. Along with this, to modify the accounting method of Land Bank, the rule for public enterprise accounting system must be partially revised.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.4 no.1
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• pp.39-49
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• 2017

This study develops an early warning system (EWS) to prevent the banking crisis. The proposed system incorporates both the perspective of crises and fundamental characteristics of the banking system in each economy. A fuzzy logic method with data from 1990-2009 is employed to construct the EWS of banking crisis based on 21 pre-determined variables from the aspect of total economy, financial and banking sectors. Our results show: Firstly, South Korea recorded higher probability to have a banking crisis in 1997 as there was large foreign debt in dollars. Secondly, China, Australia and New Zealand banking systems appear to be vulnerable to the crisis in 2007. The surge of China export, FDIs and booming stock market were signs of a heated economy. Australia with high commodity prices was also vulnerable to crisis. Thirdly, Australia, China, Japan and New Zealand banking systems appear to be exposed to the higher chance of a crisis in 2010. Japan with deflation coupled with expensive yen did not augur well for its export. Overall, the findings show that in Asian Financial Crisis 1997/98 and Global Financial Crisis 2008/09, many economies are exposed to a higher probability of having the crisis and this shows an urgent need of having surveillance in these economies.

• Journal of Technology Innovation
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.185-220
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• 2014

The purpose of this study is to get a whole picture of financial conditions of the new and renewable energy sector which have been growing rapidly and predict bankruptcy risk quantitatively. There have been many researches on the methodologies for company failure prediction, such as financial ratios as predictors of failure, analysis of corporate governance, risk factors and survival analysis, and others. The research method for this study is Altman Z-score which has been widely used in the world. Data Set was composed of 121 companies with financial statements from KIS-Value. Covering period for the analysis of the data set is from the year 2006 to 2011. As a result of this study, we found that 38 percent of the data set belongs to "Distress" Zone (on alert) while 38% (on watch), summed into 76%, whose level could be interpreted to doubt about the sustainability. The average of the SMEs in wind energy sector was worse than that of SMEs in solar energy sector. And the average of the SMEs in the "Distress" Zone (on alert) was worse than that of the companies of large group in the "Distress" Zone (on alert). In conclusion, Altman Z-score was well proved to be effective for New & Renewable Energy Industry in Korea as a result of this study. The importance of this study lies on the result to demonstrate empirically that the majority of solar and wind enterprises are facing the risk of bankruptcy. And it is also meaningful to have studied the relationship between SMEs and large companies in addition to advancing research on new start-up companies.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.22 no.2
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• pp.545-558
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to explore a prediction model for accurately predicting Financial Difficulties of Chinese Cultural Industry Enterprises through Traditional Statistics and Machine Learning. To construct the prediction model, the data of 128 listed Cultural Industry Enterprises in China are used. On the basis of data groups composed of 25 explanatory variables, prediction models using Traditional Statistical such as Discriminant Analysis and logistic as well as Machine Learning such as SVM, Decision Tree and Random Forest were constructed, and Python software was used to evaluate the performance of each model. The results show that the Random Forest model has the best prediction performance, with an accuracy of 95%. The SVM model was followed with 93% accuracy. The Decision Tree model was followed with 92% accuracy.The Discriminant Analysis model was followed with 89% accuracy. The model with the lowest prediction effect was the Logistic model with an accuracy of 88%. This shows that Machine Learning model can achieve better prediction effect than Traditional Statistical model when predicting financial distress of Chinese cultural industry enterprises.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.171-182
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• 2017

Most people seek a happy life and happiness positively affects sentiment, satisfaction with life, creativity, human relationship, business productivity, and even health and life extension. However, according to a survey in 2013, subjective happiness of adolescents (including university students) was very low compared to other age groups in Korea. Therefore this paper examined the effects of job-seeking stress, appearance recognition, financial situation, trust in government, and locus of control on university students' happiness using SEM (structural equation modeling). 207 university students in Seoul, Korea have been surveyed. At first, an initial experimental SEM model among these variables has been set up and reliability analysis has been conducted. Then multiple regression analyses on job-seeking stress and happiness as well as SEM analysis have been conducted. As a result of these analyses, the SEM model has been revised two times. The final SEM model passed the goodness-of-fit test (using RMR, GFI, NFI, CFI, and IFI indices). The final SEM model showed the followings. First, Higher job-seeking stress (especially sentimental part, rather than environment or action related parts) negatively affects happiness. Second, Trust in government also affects happiness both directly and indirectly. Third, Locus of control is affected both by trust in government and financial situation. Fourth, appearance recognition heavily affects job-seeking stress. In addition, appearance importance is higher than appearance interest, meaning that students who are not very interested in appearance usually recognize the importance of appearance. Finally, happiness is affected neither financial situation nor appearance recognition. Therefore, even either they are in a poor financial situation or not happy with their appearance, they can be happy if they have firm locus of control.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.217-223
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• 2020

The purpose of this study is to examine the restructuring strategies that are selected according to the corporate life cycle and to provide evidence that restructuring strategies that are chosen when firms face financial difficulties can have a positive impact on corporate restructuring. This study is logistic regression analysis of 3,593 samples of companies listed on Korea Exchange from 2001 to 2016. The results of this study show that a company that is growing through the expansion of its size and investment can overcome the financial difficulties of the company. And this study finds evidence that the declining firms use the capital increase or debt issuance to revive the corporate regeneration. The results of this study suggest that it is important to consider the life cycle at the time of corporate restructuring and select the appropriate strategy accordingly.