• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제2권3호
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• pp.8-16
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• 2012

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the construction environment in South Korea continued change in the construction environment. Construction orders in 2011 have shown a downward trend compared with the previous year. Along with these changes in the construction market, the professional capabilities of construction project managers that are perceived as important also changed after the global financial crisis. Accordingly, this study was conducted to identify the major business capabilities of the current construction project managers and to determine which of these capabilities have undergone changes in terms of the importance accorded to them after the global financial crisis, and ultimately, to derive the construction project manager capability areas that need to be strengthened according to the changes in the construction environment. The capabilities of construction project managers were surveyed at two different time points: in 2007 and in 2010. The results show that the year 2010, after the global financial crisis, an increase in the perceived important capabilities of construction project managers compared with 2007. This results the impact of the changes in the construction environment on the importance of construction project managers. This study derived the ramifications of the early identification of systems and prospects according to the changes in the construction circumstances on more efficient onsite and human resources management, by considering the appropriate capabilities of the construction project managers.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2011

We try to find the determinants of fisheries firms' capital structure during the years from 1992 to 2007 in this paper. We also have a comparative analysis of capital raising behavior in pre and post-IMF financial crisis. Regression analysis is used for this empirical study. Dependent variable is leverage ratio and independent variables are firm size, operating risk, proportion of tangible asset, non-debt tax shield effect, sales growth ratio, profitability and dummy variable. We compared the characteristics of fisheries industry with that of manufacturing industy. The determinants of fisheries firms' capital structure and correlation between pre and post-IMF financial crisis are roughly same as the hypothses except a little difference. As a peculiar difference, corrlation between fisheries firms' operating risk and leverage ratio is (+) in the pre-IMF financial crisis, but (-) in the post-IMF financial crisis. Proportion of tangible asset has a (+) correlation with leverage ratio in pre and post-IMF financial crisis, but in case of manufacturing industy, (-) correlation shows in the pre-IMF financial crisis. Because, in the pre-IMF financial crisis, high proportion of tangible asset doesn't play a role of a collateral, but only increase the bankruptcy probability. Non-debt tax shield effect and leverage ratio have (-) correlation in all industry and all period, but only (+) correlation in case of fisheries industry in the pre-IMF financial crisis. Sales growth ratio has no significant relationship with leverage ratio in fisheries industry, and this is not coincide with our hypothsis. We have a limitation of the sample size of fisheries firms and sample period in this study. Further study is required to classify the fisheries industry with in-shore fisheries, deep sea fisheries and cold storage industry.

• 경영과학
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.117-131
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• 2016

This study introduces the concepts on the phase-shifting phenomenon of financial markets, which was firstly used in econophysics area and explains how the phase-shifting behavior is studied in the fields of business management and finance. Specifically, we explain how the phases of financial markets are extremely changed under some external conditions, do an extensive literature review, and carry out case studies focusing on the 3 major financial crisis events including the 87 October crash, 97 Asian financial crisis, and 2007 global financial crisis. We also empirically examine the phase-shifting behavior of the Korean ELW products that has a similar payoff structure to the KOSPI200 options.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• 제32권3호
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• pp.1-32
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• 2010

본고에서는 글로벌 금융위기의 충격을 산출량에 장기적 중립성을 가지는 근원적 충격과 장기적 중립성을 가지지 않는 비근원적 충격으로 나누어 글로벌 금융위기 기간 중 근원적 충격이 물가안정목표 달성에 미친 영향을 분석하였다. 본고에서 보인 바와 같이 글로벌 금융위기가 수요에 미친 영향과 이로 인해 물가가 안정된 효과를 제대로 파악하지 못하면 향후 물가안정이 어려워질 수 있다. 농산물과 석유류 제품의 일시적 공급충격을 제거한 통상적 근원인플레이션을 기준으로 평가하면, 2007~09년 중 물가안정목표는 안정적으로 달성된 것처럼 보이고 향후 목표 달성도 무난해 보인다. 그러나 중앙은행의 통제 대상인 구조적 근원인플레이션을 기준으로 평가하면 매우 달라진다. 글로벌 금융위기를 전후한 수요충격으로 근원인플레이션이 크게 변동하였으며, 2007~09년 중 물가안정목표 달성은 글로벌 금융위기에 따른 마이너스 성장에 기인한 바가 크다. 또한 글로벌 금융위기 이후 각종 경기확대정책에 힘입어 경기가 빠르게 회복되면서 근원인플레이션이 급격하게 상승하고 있으므로 향후 적절한 출구전략을 마련해야 한다.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.39-49
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• 2017

This study develops an early warning system (EWS) to prevent the banking crisis. The proposed system incorporates both the perspective of crises and fundamental characteristics of the banking system in each economy. A fuzzy logic method with data from 1990-2009 is employed to construct the EWS of banking crisis based on 21 pre-determined variables from the aspect of total economy, financial and banking sectors. Our results show: Firstly, South Korea recorded higher probability to have a banking crisis in 1997 as there was large foreign debt in dollars. Secondly, China, Australia and New Zealand banking systems appear to be vulnerable to the crisis in 2007. The surge of China export, FDIs and booming stock market were signs of a heated economy. Australia with high commodity prices was also vulnerable to crisis. Thirdly, Australia, China, Japan and New Zealand banking systems appear to be exposed to the higher chance of a crisis in 2010. Japan with deflation coupled with expensive yen did not augur well for its export. Overall, the findings show that in Asian Financial Crisis 1997/98 and Global Financial Crisis 2008/09, many economies are exposed to a higher probability of having the crisis and this shows an urgent need of having surveillance in these economies.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제39권2호
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• pp.17-37
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• 2020

본 연구의 목적은 2007년~2010년 유로 도입 이후 금융위기 및 그에 따른 EU 부채위기까지의 기간 내에 미국, 유럽 및 BRIC 금융시장 간의 선형과 비선형 인과관계의 존재를 통해 글로벌 전이효과를 조사하는데 있다. 금융위기로 인한 글로벌 전이효과가 잘 설명되어 있지만, 미국, 유럽 및 BRIC 주식시장 간의 변동성 전이효과의 특성 뿐만 아니라 전달 메커니즘은 체계적으로 조사되지 않았다. 동적 선형 및 비선형 인과관계를 조사하기 위해 단계적인 필터링 방법론이 도입되었는데, 이는 벡터자기회귀모형과 다변량 GARCH 모형을 포함한다. 본 논문의 표본은 유로 이후 기간을 포함하고 또한 2007년 금융위기, 2008년 글로벌 금융위기, 2010년 유로존 부채위기도 포함한다. 본 연구의 실증결과는 BRIC 주식시장의 효율성에 많은 함의를 가질 수 있는데 시장의 예측가능성에 영향을 미칠 뿐만 아니라 시장의 금융통합의 과정을 수량화하기 위해서 미래의 연구에 유용할 수 있다. 미국, 유럽 및 BRIC 간의 상호 의존성이 감지되면 금융시장 규제, 헤징 및 거래 전략에 대한 중요한 함의를 나타낼 수 있다. 또한 결과는 BRIC이 미국발 서브프라임 금융위기 이후 국제적으로 통합되고 있고 전이효과가 더욱 구체화 되어 현저하게 나타나고 있다는 것을 보여준다. 더욱이, 탈동조화 견해를 지지하는 일관된 증거가 전혀 없다. 일부 비선형 인과관계는 조사기간 동안 필터링 후에도 지속된다. 비록 꼬리분포 의존성과 고적률이 나머지 상호 의존성의 유의한 요소일 수 있을지라도, 이것은 비선형 인과관계가 단순한 변동성 효과에 의해 대체로 설명될 수 있다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제21권6호
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• pp.501-512
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• 2014

Stylized facts on asset return are fat-tail, asymmetry, volatility clustering and structure changes. This paper simultaneously captures these characteristics by introducing a multi-regime models: Finite mixture distribution and regime switching GARCH model. Analyzing the daily KOSPI return from $4^{th}$ January 2000 to $30^{th}$ June 2014, we find that a two-component mixture of t distribution is a good candidate to describe the shape of the KOSPI return from unconditional and conditional perspectives. Empirical results suggest that the equality assumption on the shape parameter of t distribution yields better discrimination of heterogeneity component in return data. We report the strong regime-dependent characteristics in volatility dynamics with high persistence and asymmetry by employing a regime switching GJR-GARCH model with t innovation model. Compared to two sub-samples, Pre-Crisis (January 2003 ~ December 2007) and Post-Crisis (January 2010 ~ June 2014), we find that the degree of persistence in the Pre-Crisis is higher than in the Post-Crisis along with a strong asymmetry in the low-volatility (high-volatility) regime during the Pre-Crisis (Post-Crisis).

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제4권1호
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• pp.25-38
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• 2017

This study investigates the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for six Middle Eastern countries, namely, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia before and during (after) the 2007 global financial crisis for the period between January 2004 and September 2015. The sample is divided into two sub-periods, that is, the period from January 1, 2004 to September 30, 2007 and the period from October 1, 2007 to September 30, 2015, to represent the pre-crisis period and the post-crisis period, respectively. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model in a multivariate framework (including two control variables, inflation rates and oil prices) the results suggest that in the case of Jordan, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, there exists bidirectional causalities after the crisis period but not the before. The opposite status is available for the case of Iran. In the case of Oman, there is bidirectional causality between the variables of interest in both periods. The results also reveal that the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates has become stronger after the 2007 global financial crisis. Overall, the results of this study indicate that fluctuations in foreign exchange markets can significantly affect stock markets in the Middle East.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제38권1호
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• pp.181-199
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• 2019

본 연구의 목적은 1980년 1월부터 2018년 3월까지 한국, 일본, 싱가포르, 홍콩 및 중국의 월별 주식수익률 자료를 사용하여 1997년~1998년 아시아 위기의 변동성 급등이 위기 이후의 주식수익률 변동성에 여전히 영향을 미치는지 여부를 조사하였다. 본 연구는 변동성이 이미 금융위기 이전 수준으로 떨어졌는지 여부를 조사하는데 아시아 금융위기로 인한 비조건부 분산의 가능한 구조적 변화를 설명하기 위해 국면전환 모형인 MRS-GARCH 모형을 사용하였다. 본 연구의 주요 결과는 첫째, 1997년~1998년의 아시아 금융위기기간 이후 일본을 제외하고 각 국가별 주식수익률은 고변동성 국면에서 미약하였고, 2007년과 2008년의 글로벌 금융위기기간을 제외하고 아시아 주식시장은 일부분 진정되었다. 둘째, 아시아의 금융위기로 인한 조건부 변동성의 증가는 대폭 감소되었다. 본 연구는 2018년 3월 현재까지 한국, 일본, 싱가포르, 홍콩 및 중국의 주식시장이 1997년~1998년 아시아 금융위기에 의해 발생된 고변동성 국면에 미약하게 존재하고 있음을 발견하였다. 따라서 1997년과 1998년의 자본자유화, 고인플레이션, 경상수지 악화, 해외 저금리 및 신용성장의 확대 등을 포함한 아시아 위기로 인해 아시아의 주식시장은 완전히 회복(안정)되지 않았으나, 2007년과 2008년의 글로벌 금융위기기간을 제외하고 아시아 주식시장은 대부분 진정되었다고 판단할 수 있었다. 아시아 주식시장의 주식수익률간의 유사성과 국면전환의 유사상관관계를 고려할 때, 다변량 국면전환모형(MRS-GARCH)에서 분석하는 것이 유의한 가치가 존재할 수 있다.

• 가족자원경영과 정책
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• 제11권3호
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• pp.123-144
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• 2007

The major purpose of this study is to find level of financial management behavior and relation factors. In addition, It is also to suggest how to overcome family financial problems on urban housewives' in the time of economic crisis and to provide the fundamental data to improve economic stability. Consequently, in the times of economic crisis, housewives' change-oriented family finance management behavior appeared to be more desirable. Through change-oriented family finance management behavior, housewives needs try to find reasonable solution to improve family cohesion and financial stability. Specially, housewives have to make use of financial information for effective financial management behavior and the financial stability of family members.