Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)
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- Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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- v.23 no.3
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- pp.1-27
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- 2017
It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.
This study is aiming at identifying the foreward and backward lingkage effects of the farm land base development project. Korean Government has continuously carried out farmland base development projets including the integrated agricultural development projects. large and medium scale irrigation projects and the comprehensive development of the four big river basin including tidal land reclamation and estuary dam construction for the all weather farming since 1962. the starting year of the five year economic development plans. Consequently the irrigation rate of paddy fields in Korea reached to 75% in 1998 and to escalate the irrigation rate, the Government had procured heavy investment fund from IBRD. IMF and OECF etc. To cope with the agricultural problems like trade liberalization in accordance with WTO policy, the government has tried to solve such problems as new farmland base development policy, preservation of the farmland and expansion of farmland to meet self-sufficiency of foods in the future. Especially, farmland base development projects have been challanged to environmental and ecological problems in evaluating economic benefits and costs where the value of non-market goods have not been included in those. Up to data, in evaluating benefits and costs of the projects, farmland base development projects have been confined to direct incremental value of farm products and it's related costs. Therefore the projects'efficiency as a decision making criteria has shown the low level of economic efficiencies. In estimating economic efficiencies including Leontiefs input-output analysis of the projects could not be founded in Korea at present. Accordingly this study is aimed at achieving and identifying the following objectives. (1) To identify the problems related to the financial supports of the Government in implementing the proposed projects. (2) To estimated backward and foreward linkage effects of the proposed project from the view point of national economy as a whole. To achieve the objectives, Hwangrak benefited area with reservoir which is located in Seosan-haemi Disticts, Chungnam Province were selected as a case study. The main results of the study are summarized as follows : a. The present value of investment and O & M cost were amounted to 3,510million won and the present value of the value added in related industries was estimated at 5.913million won for the period of economic life of 70 years. b. The total discounted value of farm products in the concerned industries derived by the project was estimated at 10,495million won and the foreward and backward linkage effects of the project were amounted to 6,760 and 5,126million won respectively. c. The total number of employment opportunities derived from the related industries for the period of project life were 3,136 man/year. d. Farmland base development projects were showed that the backward linkage effects estimated by index of the sensitivity dispersion were larger than the forward linkage effect estimated by index of the power of dispersion. On the other hand, the forward linkage effect of rice production value during project life was larger than the backward linkage effect e. The rate of creation of new job opportunity by means of implementing civil engineering works were shown high in itself rather than any other fields. and the linkage effects of production of the project investment were mainly derived from the metal and non-metal fields. f. According to the industrial linkage effect analysis, farmland base development projects were identified economically feasible from the view point of national economy as a whole even though the economic efficiencies of the project was outstandingly decreased owing to delaying construction period and increasing project costs.
I. Introduction: In Chinese electronics industry, the local wholesalers are still dominant but power is rapidly swifting from wholesalers to retailers because in recent foreign big retailers and local mass merchandisers are growing fast. During such transient period, conflicts among channel members emerge important issues. For example, when wholesalers who have more power exercise influence strategies to maintain status, conflicts among manufacturer, wholesaler, and retailer will be intensified. Korean electronics companies in China need differentiated channel strategies by dealing with wholesalers and retailers simultaneously to sell more Korean products in competition with foreign firms. For example, Korean electronics firms should utilize 'guanxi' or relational quality to form long-term relationships with whloesalers instead of power and conflict issues. The major purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of conflict, dependency, and influence strategies between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers on performance in Chinese electronics distribution channels. In particular, this paper proposes effective distribution strategies for Korean electronics companies in China by analyzing moderating effects of 'Guanxi'. II. Literature Review and Hypotheses: The specific purposes of this study are as follows. First, causes of conflicts between local Korean-products-selling retailers and wholesalers are examined from the perspectives of goal incongruence and role ambiguity and then effects of these causes are found out on perceived conflicts of local retailers. Second, the effects of dependency of local retailers upon wholesalers are investigated on local retailers' perceived conflicts. Third, the effects of non-coercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation and coercive strategies such as threats and legalistic pleas exercised by wholesalers are explored on perceived conflicts by local retailers. Fourth, the effects of level of conflicts perceived by local retailers are verified on local retailers' financial performance and satisfaction. Fifth, moderating effects of relational qualities, say, 'quanxi' between wholesalers and retailers are analyzed on the impact of wholesalers' influence strategies on retailers' performances. Finally, moderating effects of relational qualities are examined on the relationship between conflicts and performance. To accomplish above-mentioned research objectives, Figure 1 and the following research hypotheses are proposed and verified. III. Measurement and Data Analysis: To verify the proposed research model and hypotheses, data were collected from 97 retailers who are selling Korean electronic products located around Central and Southern regions in China. Covariance analysis and moderated regression analysis were employed to validate hypotheses. IV. Conclusion: The following results were drawn using structural equation modeling and hierarchical moderated regression. First, goal incongruence perceived by local retailers significantly affected conflict but role ambiguity did not. Second, consistent with conflict spiral theory, the level of conflict decreased when retailers' dependency increased toward wholesalers. Third, noncoercive influence strategies such as information exchange and recommendation implemented by wholesalers had significant effects on retailers' performance such as sales and satisfaction without conflict. On the other hand, coercive influence strategies such as threat and legalistic plea had insignificant effects on performance in spite of increasing the level of conflict. Fourth, 'guanxi', namely, relational quality between local retailers and wholesalers showed unique effects on performance. In case of noncoercive influence strategies, 'guanxi' did not play a role of moderator. Rather, relational quality and noncoercive influence strategies can serve as independent variables to enhance performance. On the other hand, when 'guanxi' was well built due to mutual trust and commitment, relational quality as a moderator can positively function to improve performance even though hostile, coercive influence strategies were implemented. Fifth, 'guanxi' significantly moderated the effects of conflict on performance. Even if conflict arises, local retailers who form solid relational quality can increase performance by dealing with dysfunctional conflict synergistically compared with low 'quanxi' retailers. In conclusion, this study verified the importance of relational quality via 'quanxi' between local retailers and wholesalers in Chinese electronic industry because relational quality could cross out the adverse effects of coercive influence strategies and conflict on performance.
The purpose of this study is to survey the successful cases of small and medium Business Systematization Cognition by examining their entrepreneurial characteristics and analysing the factors affecting their success. To that end, previous studies on the association types of small businesses were studied. A research model was developed, and research hypotheses for an empirical analysis were established upon it. Suh et al. (2010) insist on the importance of Small Business Systematization in Korea but also show that small business performance is suffering: they are too small to stand alone. That is why association is so crucial for them: they must stand together. Unfortunately, association is difficult, as they have few specific links and little motivation. Even in franchising networks, association tends to be initiated by big franchisers, not small ones. In that sense, association among small businesses is crucial for their long-term survival. With this in mind, this study examines how they think and feel about the issue of 'Industrial Classification', how important Industrial Classification is to their business success, and what kinds of problems it raises in the markets. This study seeks the different cognitions among the association types of small businesses from the perspectives of participation motivation, systematization expectation, policy demand level, and management performance. We assume that different industrial classification types of small businesses will have different cognitions concerning these factors. There are four basic industrial classification types of small businesses: retail sales, restaurant, service, and manufacturing. To date, most of the studies in this area have focused on collecting data on the external environments of small businesses or performing statistical analyses on their status. In this study, we surveyed 4 market areas in Busan, Masan, and Changwon in Korea, where business associations consist of merchants, shop owners, and traders. We surveyed 330 shops and merchants by sending a questionnaire or visiting. Finally, 268 questionnaires were collected and used for the analysis. An ANOVA, T-test, and regression analyses were conducted to test the research hypotheses. The results demonstrate that there are differences in cognition depending upon the industrial classification type. Restaurants generally have a higher cognition concerning job offer problems and a lower cognition concerning their competitiveness. Restaurants also depend more on systematization expectation than do the other industrial classification types. On the policy demand level, restaurants have a higher cognition. This study identifies several factors that are contributing to management performance through differences in cognition that depend upon association type: systematization expectation and policy demand level have positive effects on management performance; participation motivation has a negative effect on management performance. We confirm also that the image factors of different cognitions are linked to an awareness of the value of systematization and that these factors show sequential and continual patterns in the course of generating performances. In conclusion, this study carries significant implications in its classifying of small businesses into the four different associational types (retail sales, restaurant, services, and manufacturing). We believe our study to be the first one to conduct an empirical survey in this subject area. More studies in this area will likely use our research frameworks. The data show that regionally based industrial classification associations such as those in rural cities or less developed areas tend to suffer more problems than those in urban areas. Moreover, restaurants suffer more problems than the norm. Most of the problems raised in this study concern the act of 'associating itself'. Most associations have serious difficulties in associating. On the other hand, the area where they have the least policy demand is that of service types. This study contributes to the argument that associating, rather than financial assistance or management consulting, promotes the start-up and managerial performance of small businesses. This study also has some limitations. The main limitation is the number of questionnaires. We could not survey all the industrial classification types across the country because of budget and time limitations. If we had, we could have produced many more useful results and enhanced the precision of our analysis. The history of systemization is very short and the number of industrial classification associations is relatively low in Korea. We should keep in mind, though, that this is very crucial to systemization entrepreneurs starting their businesses, as it can heavily affect their chances of success. Being strongly associated with each other might be critical to the business success of industrial classification members. Thus, the government needs to put more effort and resources into supporting the drive of industrial classification members to become more strongly associated.
With the continued globalization of world markets, transfer pricing has become one of the dominant sources of controversy in international taxation. Transfer pricing is the process by which a multinational corporation calculates a price for goods and services that are transferred to affiliated entities. Consider a Korean electronic enterprise that buys supplies from its own subsidiary located in China. How much the Korean parent company pays its subsidiary will determine how much profit the Chinese unit reports in local taxes. If the parent company pays above normal market prices, it may appear to have a poor profit, even if the group as a whole shows a respectable profit margin. In this way, transfer prices impact the taxable income reported in each country in which the multinational enterprise operates. It's importance lies in that around 60% of international trade involves transactions between two related parts of multinationals, according to the OECD. Multinational enterprises (hereafter MEs) exert much effort into utilizing organizational advantages to make global investments. MEs wish to minimize their tax burden. So MEs spend a fortune on economists and accountants to justify transfer prices that suit their tax needs. On the contrary, local governments are not prepared to cope with MEs' powerful financial instruments. Tax authorities in each country wish to ensure that the tax base of any ME is divided fairly. Thus, both tax authorities and MEs have a vested interest in the way in which a transfer price is determined, and this is why MEs' international transfer prices are at the center of disputes concerned with taxation. Transfer pricing issues and practices are sometimes difficult to control for regulators because the tax administration does not have enough staffs with the knowledge and resources necessary to understand them. The authors examine transfer pricing practices to provide relevant resources useful in designing tax incentives and regulation schemes for policy makers. This study focuses on identifying the relevant business and environmental factors that could influence the international transfer pricing of MEs. In this perspective, we empirically investigate how the management perception of related variables influences their choice of international transfer pricing methods. We believe that this research is particularly useful in the design of tax policy. Because it can concentrate on a few selected factors in consideration of the limited budget of the tax administration with assistance of this research. Data is composed of questionnaire responses from foreign firms in Korea with investment balances exceeding one million dollars in the end of 2004. We mailed questionnaires to 861 managers in charge of the accounting departments of each company, resulting in 121 valid responses. Seventy six percent of the sample firms are classified as small and medium sized enterprises with assets below 100 billion Korean won. Reviewing transfer pricing methods, cost-based transfer pricing is most popular showing that 60 firms have adopted it. The market-based method is used by 31 firms, and 13 firms have reported the resale-pricing method. Regarding the nationalities of foreign investors, the Japanese and the Americans constitute most of the sample. Logistic regressions have been performed for statistical analysis. The dependent variable is binary in that whether the method of international transfer pricing is a market-based method or a cost-based method. This type of binary classification is founded on the belief that the market-based method is evaluated as the relatively objective way of pricing compared with the cost-based methods. Cost-based pricing is assumed to give mangers flexibility in transfer pricing decisions. Therefore, local regulatory agencies are thought to prefer market-based pricing over cost-based pricing. Independent variables are composed of eight factors such as corporate tax rate, tariffs, relations with local tax authorities, tax audit, equity ratios of local investors, volume of internal trade, sales volume, and product life cycle. The first four variables are included in the model because taxation lies in the center of transfer pricing disputes. So identifying the impact of these variables in Korean business environments is much needed. Equity ratio is included to represent the interest of local partners. Volume of internal trade was sometimes employed in previous research to check the pricing behavior of managers, so we have followed these footsteps in this paper. Product life cycle is used as a surrogate of competition in local markets. Control variables are firm size and nationality of foreign investors. Firm size is controlled using dummy variables in that whether or not the specific firm is small and medium sized. This is because some researchers report that big firms show different behaviors compared with small and medium sized firms in transfer pricing. The other control variable is also expressed in dummy variable showing if the entrepreneur is the American or not. That's because some prior studies conclude that the American management style is different in that they limit branch manger's freedom of decision. Reviewing the statistical results, we have found that managers prefer the cost-based method over the market-based method as the importance of corporate taxes and tariffs increase. This result means that managers need flexibility to lessen the tax burden when they feel taxes are important. They also prefer the cost-based method as the product life cycle matures, which means that they support subsidiaries in local market competition using cost-based transfer pricing. On the contrary, as the relationship with local tax authorities becomes more important, managers prefer the market-based method. That is because market-based pricing is a better way to maintain good relations with the tax officials. Other variables like tax audit, volume of internal transactions, sales volume, and local equity ratio have shown only insignificant influence. Additionally, we have replaced two tax variables(corporate taxes and tariffs) with the data showing top marginal tax rate and mean tariff rates of each country, and have performed another regression to find if we could get different results compared with the former one. As a consequence, we have found something different on the part of mean tariffs, that shows only an insignificant influence on the dependent variable. We guess that each company in the sample pays tariffs with a specific rate applied only for one's own company, which could be located far from mean tariff rates. Therefore we have concluded we need a more detailed data that shows the tariffs of each company if we want to check the role of this variable. Considering that the present paper has heavily relied on questionnaires, an effort to build a reliable data base is needed for enhancing the research reliability.
This study was conducted to help staff members of health centers manage personnel by examining the staff members' recognition level of organization structure of health centers, their motivation, their job satisfaction level and its related factors. Data were collected from 471 staff members of 14 health centers from March 3, 1999 to April 30, 1999. The results of this study are summarized as follows. In recognition levels of organization structure of health centers, the recognition level of necessity of discretion right was highest(3.55 points on the base of 5 points), while the recognition level of the location of decision making right was lowest(2.77 points). The general recognition of organization structure of health centers was 3.06 points, the suitability of division of duties was 3.05 points, and the optimum of manpower and budget was 2.93 points. The staff members' general recognition level of the organization structure appeared significantly higher in case of the groups of small and medium sized cities, above fifties, below high school graduate, above the sixth grade, public service experience of above 20 years, service period of below 2 years at present post, and average monthly salary of one million, eight hundred and ten thousand won. In the recognition level of the location of decision making right, the groups of big cities, male, the married, above the sixth grade, health and administration posts, average monthly salary of one million, three hundred and ten thousand won to one million, and eight hundred thousand won were significantly higher than the other groups. The recognition level of necessity of discretion right was higher in case of the groups of the twenties, the unmarried, above college graduate, nursing post, public service experience of below 5 years, service period of below 2 years at present post, and average monthly salary of below eight hundred thousand won. In the recognition level of suitability of division of duties, the groups of small and medium sized cities, the married, medical technicians, public service experience of above 20 years, and service period of below 4 years at present post were significantly higher than the other groups. In the staff members' recognition levels of organization management, the recognition level of opinion response when making decision was highest(2.92 points). The recognition level of rationality of the target amount establishment method was 2.88 points and the recognition level of personnel management was 2.63 points. The recognition level of personnel management was significantly higher in case of the groups of small and medium sized cities, the forties, above the sixth grade, medical technicians, public service experience of above 20 years, service period of below 2 years at present post, and average monthly salary of above one million, eight hundred and ten thousand won. In the recognition level of opinion response when making decision, the groups of small and medium sized cities, female, the eighth grade, health and administration posts, and service period of below 2 years at present post were higher than the other groups. The recognition level of rationality of the target amount establishment method was significantly higher in case of the groups of above fifties, below high school graduate, above the sixth grade, medical service post, and public service experience of 15 to 20 years. The factors significantly influencing sanitation were sex, education level, the period of public service experience, general recognition of organization structure, recognition of necessity of discretion right, recognition of suitability of division of duties, and recognition of opinion response when making decision. The factors which significantly influenced motivation were marital status, grade, recognition of the location of decision making right, recognition of necessity of discretion right, recognition of division of duties, recognition of opinion response when making decision, and sanitation. Sex, education level, recognition of suitability of division of duties, recognition of the target amount establishment method, and motivation influenced job satisfaction significantly. The factors significantly influencing organization culture were age, the period of public service experience, service period at present post, recognition of optimum of manpower and budget, recognition of suitability of division of duties, recognition of opinion response when making decision, and recognition of rationality of the target amount establishment method. In the coming days, the staff members' job satisfaction level must be increased through motivation and efficient conduct of duty must be accomplished through rational organization structure and management. Moreover, change of the staff members' consciousness and administrative system which are suitable for local autonomy system have to be established with increase of local residents' consciousness level and education level. Forming organization culture by reformative idea which fits the new era, public health service by the Community Health Act and health education service by the Health Promotion Act must be carried out efficiently. In doing so, financial support of central government and active efforts and concerns of local governments have to be devoted in order to get public health service in which peculiarity of the community is considered to be pursued well.