• Title/Summary/Keyword: Fault Prediction Model

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An Early Reliability Prediction Model Using Genetic Algorithm (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 초기 신뢰도 예측 모델)

  • 권용일;정혁철;홍의석;이명재;우치수
    • Proceedings of the Korean Information Science Society Conference
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    • 1998.10b
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    • pp.635-637
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    • 1998
  • 시험 단계나 운용 단계에서 발견된 소프트웨어의 오류를 수정하기 위해서는 많은 비용을 투자해야 한다. 시스템 개발 초기 단계인 설계 단계에서 소프트웨어 시스템의 신뢰도에 영향을 많이 미치는 부분을 찾아 오류를 사전에 방지하는 연구가 많이 진행되고 있다. 모듈의 신뢰도를 설계 단계에서 예측할 수 있다면 프로젝트 관리자는 결함 경향이 강한 모듈 개발에 더 많은 자원을 할당함으로써 보다 신뢰성 있는 소프트웨어를 생산 할 수 있다. 본 논문에서는 실시간 소프트웨어의 설계 결과에 대한 복잡도 측정치를 토대로 신뢰도를 예측하는 모델을 제안하다. 유전자 알고리즘으로 찾아낸 이 모델을 사용하여 결함 경향이 강한(fault prone) 모듈과 그렇지 않은 모듈은 96%의 정확도로 선별해 낼 수 있다.

Fault-prediction model using unsupervised learning algorithm (비감독형 학습 알고리즘을 사용한 결함예측모델)

  • Park, Mi-Gyeong;Hong, Ui-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2013.11a
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    • pp.945-947
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    • 2013
  • 입력 모듈의 결함경향성을 결정하는 결함 예측 모델 연구들은 대부분 훈련 데이터 집합을 사용하는 감독형 모델에 관련된 것들이었다. 하지만 과거 데이터 집합이 없거나 현재 프로젝트 성격이 다른 경우는 비감독형 모델이 필요하며, 이들에 관한 연구들은 모델 구축의 어려움 때문에 극소수 존재한다. 본 논문에서는 대표적인 클러스터링 알고리즘들을 사용한 비감독형 모델들을 제작하여, 기존 모델들이 많이 사용한 K-means 모델과 나머지 모델들의 성능을 비교하였다.

Development of an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Techniques based PD-Model for the Insulation Condition Monitoring and Diagnosis

  • Kim, Y.J.;Lim, J.S.;Park, D.H.;Cho, K.B.
    • Electrical & Electronic Materials
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    • v.11 no.11
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents an arificial neuro-fuzzy technique based prtial discharge (PD) pattern classifier to power system application. This may require a complicated analysis method employ -ing an experts system due to very complex progressing discharge form under exter-nal stress. After referring briefly to the developments of artificical neural network based PD measurements, the paper outlines how the introduction of new emerging technology has resulted in the design of a number of PD diagnostic systems for practical applicaton of residual lifetime prediction. The appropriate PD data base structure and selection of learning data size of PD pattern based on fractal dimentsional and 3-D PD-normalization, extraction of relevant characteristic fea-ture of PD recognition are discussed. Some practical aspects encountered with unknown stress in the neuro-fuzzy techniques based real time PD recognition are also addressed.

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A Study on the Deep Learning-Based Defect Prediction Model Using Sensor Data of Semiconductor Equipment (반도체 설비 센서 데이터를 활용한 딥러닝 기반의 불량예측 모델에 관한 연구)

  • Ha, Seung-Jae;Lee, Won-Suk;Gu, Kyo-Yeon;Shin, Yong-Tae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Information Processing Society Conference
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    • 2021.05a
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    • pp.459-462
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    • 2021
  • 본 연구는 반도체 제조 공정중 발생하는 센서 데이터를 활용하여 딥러닝기반으로 불량을 예측하는 모델을 제안한다. 반도체 공장에서는 FDC((Fault Detection and Classification)라는 불량을 예측하는 시스템이 있지만, 공정의 복잡도가 높고 센서의 종류가 많아 공정 관리자가 모든 센서의 기준을 설정 및 관리하는데 한계가 있다. 이를 해결하기 위해 공정 설비의 센서 데이터를 딥러닝을 활용하여 학습시켜 센서 기준정보로 임계치를 제공하고, 가공중 발생하는 센서 데이터가 입력되면 정상 여부를 판정하는 모델을 제안한다.

Proposal of new ground-motion prediction equations for elastic input energy spectra

  • Cheng, Yin;Lucchini, Andrea;Mollaioli, Fabrizio
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.485-510
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    • 2014
  • In performance-based seismic design procedures Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and pseudo-Spectral acceleration ($S_a$) are commonly used to predict the response of structures to earthquake. Recently, research has been carried out to evaluate the predictive capability of these standard Intensity Measures (IMs) with respect to different types of structures and Engineering Demand Parameter (EDP) commonly used to measure damage. Efforts have been also spent to propose alternative IMs that are able to improve the results of the response predictions. However, most of these IMs are not usually employed in probabilistic seismic demand analyses because of the lack of reliable Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs). In order to define seismic hazard and thus to calculate demand hazard curves it is essential, in fact, to establish a GMPE for the earthquake intensity. In the light of this need, new GMPEs are proposed here for the elastic input energy spectra, energy-based intensity measures that have been shown to be good predictors of both structural and non-structural damage for many types of structures. The proposed GMPEs are developed using mixed-effects models by empirical regressions on a large number of strong-motions selected from the NGA database. Parametric analyses are carried out to show the effect of some properties variation, such as fault mechanism, type of soil, earthquake magnitude and distance, on the considered IMs. Results of comparisons between the proposed GMPEs and other from the literature are finally shown.

Kernel Regression Model based Gas Turbine Rotor Vibration Signal Abnormal State Analysis (커널회귀 모델기반 가스터빈 축진동 신호이상 분석)

  • Kim, Yeonwhan;Kim, Donghwan;Park, SunHwi
    • KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.101-105
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    • 2018
  • In this paper, the kernel regression model is applied for the case study of gas turbine abnormal state analysis. In addition to vibration analysis at the remote site, the kernel regression model technique can is useful for analyzing abnormal state of rotor vibration signals of gas turbine in power plant. In monitoring based on data-driven techniques correlated measurements, the fault free training data of shaft vibration obtained during normal operations of gas turbine are used to develop a empirical model based on auto-associative kernel regression. This data-driven model can be used to predict virtual measurements, which are compared with real-time data, generating residuals. Any faults in the system may cause statistically abnormal changes in these residuals and could be detected. As the result, the kernel regression model provides information that can distinguish anomalies such as sensor failure in a shaft vibration signal.

Prediction of Preceding Crown Settlement Using Longitudinal Displacement Measured on Tunnel Face in Fault Zone (단층대가 분포하는 터널에서 굴진면 수평변위를 이용한 선행 천단변위 분석)

  • Yun, Hyun-Seok;Do, Kyung-Ryang;Seo, Yong-Seok
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2017
  • Preceding displacements in tunnel are difficult to predict since the measurements of displacements after excavation can not be performed immediately. In the present study, The longitudinal displacements which can be measured immediately after excavation are used to predict the crown settlements occurring before excavation only if fault is located at the tunnel crown. Three-dimensional finite element analysis was conducted using 28 numerical models with various fault attitudes to analyze the correlation between the longitudinal displacements on tunnel face and preceding crown settlements. The results, $L_{face}/C$ ratio show 2~12% in the drives with dip models and 2~13% in the drives against dip models individually. In addition, each model has a certain $L_{face}/C$ ratio. The result of the regression analysis show that the coefficient of determination is over 0.8 in most models. Therefore, crown settlements occurring before excavation can be predicted by analyzing the longitudinal displacements occurring on tunnel faces.

Real-Time Lane Detection Based on Inverse Perspective Transform and Search Range Prediction (역원근 변환과 검색 영역 예측에 의한 실시간 차선 인식)

  • Kim, S.H.;Lee, D.H.;Lee, M.H.;Be, J.I.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2000.07d
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    • pp.2843-2845
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    • 2000
  • A lane detection based on a road model or feature all need correct acquirement of information on the lane in a image, It is inefficient to implement a lane detection algorithm through the full range of a image when being applied to a real road in real time because of the calculating time. This paper defines two searching range of detecting lane in a road, First is searching mode that is searching the lane without any prior information of a road, Second is recognition mode, which is able to reduce the size and change the position of a searching range by predicting the position of a lane through the acquired information in a previous frame. It is allow to extract accurately and efficiently the edge candidates points of a lane as not conducting an unnecessary searching. By means of removing the perspective effect of the edge candidate points which are acquired by using the inverse perspective transformation, we transform the edge candidate information in the Image Coordinate System(ICS) into the plane-view image in the World Coordinate System(WCS). We define linear approximation filter and remove the fault edge candidate points by using it This paper aims to approximate more correctly the lane of an actual road by applying the least-mean square method with the fault-removed edge information for curve fitting.

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A Case Study on Forecasting Inbound Calls of Motor Insurance Company Using Interactive Data Mining Technique (대화식 데이터 마이닝 기법을 활용한 자동차 보험사의 인입 콜량 예측 사례)

  • Baek, Woong;Kim, Nam-Gyu
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.99-120
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    • 2010
  • Due to the wide spread of customers' frequent access of non face-to-face services, there have been many attempts to improve customer satisfaction using huge amounts of data accumulated throughnon face-to-face channels. Usually, a call center is regarded to be one of the most representative non-faced channels. Therefore, it is important that a call center has enough agents to offer high level customer satisfaction. However, managing too many agents would increase the operational costs of a call center by increasing labor costs. Therefore, predicting and calculating the appropriate size of human resources of a call center is one of the most critical success factors of call center management. For this reason, most call centers are currently establishing a department of WFM(Work Force Management) to estimate the appropriate number of agents and to direct much effort to predict the volume of inbound calls. In real world applications, inbound call prediction is usually performed based on the intuition and experience of a domain expert. In other words, a domain expert usually predicts the volume of calls by calculating the average call of some periods and adjusting the average according tohis/her subjective estimation. However, this kind of approach has radical limitations in that the result of prediction might be strongly affected by the expert's personal experience and competence. It is often the case that a domain expert may predict inbound calls quite differently from anotherif the two experts have mutually different opinions on selecting influential variables and priorities among the variables. Moreover, it is almost impossible to logically clarify the process of expert's subjective prediction. Currently, to overcome the limitations of subjective call prediction, most call centers are adopting a WFMS(Workforce Management System) package in which expert's best practices are systemized. With WFMS, a user can predict the volume of calls by calculating the average call of each day of the week, excluding some eventful days. However, WFMS costs too much capital during the early stage of system establishment. Moreover, it is hard to reflect new information ontothe system when some factors affecting the amount of calls have been changed. In this paper, we attempt to devise a new model for predicting inbound calls that is not only based on theoretical background but also easily applicable to real world applications. Our model was mainly developed by the interactive decision tree technique, one of the most popular techniques in data mining. Therefore, we expect that our model can predict inbound calls automatically based on historical data, and it can utilize expert's domain knowledge during the process of tree construction. To analyze the accuracy of our model, we performed intensive experiments on a real case of one of the largest car insurance companies in Korea. In the case study, the prediction accuracy of the devised two models and traditional WFMS are analyzed with respect to the various error rates allowable. The experiments reveal that our data mining-based two models outperform WFMS in terms of predicting the amount of accident calls and fault calls in most experimental situations examined.

A Development of Defeat Prediction Model Using Machine Learning in Polyurethane Foaming Process for Automotive Seat (머신러닝을 활용한 자동차 시트용 폴리우레탄 발포공정의 불량 예측 모델 개발)

  • Choi, Nak-Hun;Oh, Jong-Seok;Ahn, Jong-Rok;Kim, Key-Sun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.36-42
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    • 2021
  • With recent developments in the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the manufacturing industry has changed rapidly. Through key aspects of Fourth Industrial Revolution super-connections and super-intelligence, machine learning will be able to make fault predictions during the foam-making process. Polyol and isocyanate are components in polyurethane foam. There has been a lot of research that could affect the characteristics of the products, depending on the specific mixture ratio and temperature. Based on these characteristics, this study collects data from each factor during the foam-making process and applies them to machine learning in order to predict faults. The algorithms used in machine learning are the decision tree, kNN, and an ensemble algorithm, and these algorithms learn from 5,147 cases. Based on 1,000 pieces of data for validation, the learning results show up to 98.5% accuracy using the ensemble algorithm. Therefore, the results confirm the faults of currently produced parts by collecting real-time data from each factor during the foam-making process. Furthermore, control of each of the factors may improve the fault rate.