• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제8권11호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2021

This paper compares the performance of Fama-French three-factor and five-factor models using a dataset of 20 Pakistani commercial banks for the period 2011 to 2020. We focus on an emerging economy as the findings from earlier studies on developed countries cannot be generalized in emerging markets. For empirical analysis, twelve portfolios were developed based on size, market capitalization, investment strategy, and growth. Subsequently, we constructed five Fama-French factors namely, R_M, SMB, HML, RMW, and CMA. The OLS regression technique with robust standard errors was applied to compare the predictive power of both the Fama-French models. Further, we also compared the mean-variance efficiency of the Fama-French models through the GRS test. Our empirical analysis provides three unique and interesting findings. First, both asset pricing models have similar predictive power to explain the expected portfolio returns in most cases. Second, our results from the GRS test suggest that there is no noticeable difference in the mean-variance efficiency of one asset pricing model over the other. Third, we find that all factors of both Fama-French models are statistically significant and are important for explaining the volatility of expected commercial bank returns in the context of Pakistan.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제5권4호
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• pp.21-34
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• 2018

The study tests the Fama and French three-factor model by using the newly created Islamic equity style indices. Based on a dataset from May 2006 to April 2011, the three-factor model is tested based on returns of Islamic unit trust funds using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) methodology. The sample period is also divided between periods before and after the Global Financial Crisis in August 2008 to test for robustness, and the Bai and Perron (2003) multiple structural break test was used to determine the structural break in the series. The analysis shows that the Fama and French model is valid for Islamic unit trust funds before and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The result further indicates the reversal of size effect. As for trading strategies, value funds outperform growth funds by annualized 3.13 percent for the full period. During pre-crisis period, value funds perform better than growth funds while in post-crisis, size factor yields better return than other strategies. As policy suggestion, fund managers need to be aware of the reversal of size effect, and they need to ensure a more transparent stock selection process so that investors can make an informed decision in their asset allocation.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.11-19
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• 2022

본 연구에서는 국내 주식시장에서 경제적 불확실성이 주식가격 결정에 어떠한 역할을 하는지 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 2000년 1월부터 2017년까지 우리나라의 비금융기업을 대상으로 국내외(미국, 중국)의 경제적 불확실성 지표와 주식수익률의 관련성을 분석하였다. 분석모형은 Fama and French(1992)의 3요인 모형과 모멘텀, 유동성을 포함한 5요인모형을 이용하였다. 분석결과 경제적 불확실성의 베타가 낮은 포트폴리오보다 높은 포트폴리오의 주식수익률이 높게 나타났다. 이는 미국의 분석 결과와도 동일하였다. 또한 한국의 경제적 불확실성 지수를 통한 분석 회귀분석 결과보다 미국의 불확실성 지수를 이용한 분석 결과가 더욱 유의하게 나타났다.

• 산업융합연구
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.127-147
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• 2004

This paper examines the time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market(B/M) at the portfolio level. The time-series analysis is a natural alternative to cross-sectional regressions. An alternative feature of the time-series regressions is that they focus on changes in expected returns, not on average returns. Using the time-series analysis, we can directly test whether the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than the characteristic-based model. These results should help distinguish between the risk and mispricing stories. We find that B/M is strongly associated with changes in risk, as measured by the Fama and French(1993) three-factor model. After controlling for changes in risk, B/M contains little additional information about expected returns. The evidence suggests that the three-factor model explains time-varying expected returns better than the characteristic-based model.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권7호
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• pp.95-104
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• 2020

This study examines the effect of fintech on retail banks stock return listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period of 2016-2018 as today's new technology lead to the emergence of fintech companies playing the same role as retail banks in the financial industry. This study is conducted quantitatively using monthly data from January 2016 to October 2018 and uses fintech as independent variable, proxied by fintech funding frequency and fintech funding value. Data transformation is conducted due to data volatility. The data of fintech funding, both frequency and value, is transformed into standardized fintech funding and growth of fintech funding. The data is obtained from Crunchbase, while the data of stock returns is obtained from Investing. This study further analyzes the data using Fama French Three-Factor Model and panel data regression. We found that fintech has no significant effect on retail banks' stock returns listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period of 2016-2018. The findings of the study provide some useful insights in understanding fintech companies' current position to retail banks in Indonesia. This study also suggests banking institutions, fintech companies, policy-makers, and others to take advantageous steps in building inclusive financial sectors.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제16권10호
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• pp.6511-6516
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• 2015

본 연구는 한국주식시장의 고유변동성퍼즐 현상과 투자자별 거래량에 관하여 분석하였다. 먼저 1999년 1월부터 2013년 12월까지 한국거래소에 상장된 주식들을 FF-3요인 모형으로 고유변동성을 추정하고, 투자자별 순매수와 고유변동성을 기준으로 포트폴리오를 구성하였다. 유가증권(KRX)과 코스닥(KOSDAQ)을 포함시켜 1999년 1월부터 2013년 12월까지의 일별과 월별 자료를 사용하여 분석하였다. 투자자는 개인, 기관, 그리고 외국인으로 구분하였다. 결과, 고유변동성과 알파값(혹은 초과수익률) 간에 부(-)의 관계를 나타내는 고유변동성퍼즐 현상이 뚜렷하게 나타난 특정 포트폴리오들이 발견되었다. 특히 개인투자자의 순매수를 기준으로 분류한 포트폴리오의 경우, 최상위 순매수 포트폴리오들이 뚜렷한 고유변동성퍼즐 현상을 보였다. 그리고 기관 및 외국인의 경우, 최하위 순매수 포트폴리오들에서 고유변동성퍼즐 현상이 나타났다. 따라서, 국내 주식시장에서 개인투자자의 주식거래가 압도적으로 많은 상황에서, 고유변동성퍼즐은 주로 개인투자자에 의해서 발생했다고 할 수 있다.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제44권4호
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• pp.98-105
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• 2021

Using the frequency-based decomposition, I decompose the consumption growth to explain well-known patterns of stock returns in the Korean market. To be more specific, the consumption growth is decomposed by its half-life of shocks. The component over four years of half-life is called the business-cycle consumption component, and the components with half-lives under four years are short-run components. I compute the long-run and short-run components of stock excess returns as well and use component-by-component sensitivities to price stock portfolios. As a result, the business-cycle consumption risk with half-life of over four years is useful in explaining the cross-section of size-book-to-market portfolios and size-momentum portfolios in the Korean stock market. The short-run components have their own pricing abilities with mixed direction, so that the restricted one short-term factor model is rejected. The explanatory power with short- and long-run components is comparable to that of the Fama-French three-factor model. The components with one- to four-year half-lives are also helpful in explaining the returns. The results about the long-run components emphasize the importance of long-run component in consumption growth to explain the asset returns.

• Asia Pacific Journal of Business Review
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.37-62
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• 2017

To analyze the effects of R&D expenditure on the firm value of Korean firms, we classified portfolios based on R&D activity levels. After that, we conducted a time-series analysis to assess excess returns from the portfolios. To carry out such an analysis, an empirical analysis of excess returns in the capital market was performed by using the monthly earning rate of stocks from 2000 to 2013. The purpose of this research is to provide basic data on investment to stakeholders in the capital market by analyzing the effects of R&D on the firm value and to overcome scholarly limitations by offering a new model of analysis. The criteria for classifying the portfolios were based on R&D expenditure levels. The analysis models follow the Fama-French Three-Factor Model and the Carhart Four-Factor Model. The analyses results are as follows. Extrapolating monthly profit rates based on R&D expenditure levels, portfolios with low R&D expenditures showed higher earning rates than those with high R&D expenditures. This suggests that high R&D expenditures did not translate into high earning rates. The investor depreciates the R&D expenditures related profitability and the possibility of success in the market, leading to falls in stock prices and a failure to give a positive effect on the firm value. Our research differs from the previous investigations as we carried out an empirical analysis based on the actual investors' attitudes about R&D expenditures and how these can generate excess earnings. Our research results show that the data related to R&D expenditure are not reflected fully in the market.

• 경영과정보연구
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.1-25
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• 2010

본 논문은 우리나라 주식시장을 대상으로 Haugen Baker(1996)가 제시한 기업특성요인모형을 적용하여 주식수익률 결정요인을 분석하였다. 분석기간은 1999년부터 2007년까지 총 8년간이며, 총 690개의 상장기업의 월별 자료를 이용하였다. 기존 연구에서 제시된 변수를 바탕으로 유동성, 위험, 과거주가, 가격수준, 수익성 등과 관련된 16개의 변수를 독립변수로, 690개 주식의 월별 수익률을 종속변수로 하여 시간가변 회귀분석을 통해 분석결과의 강건성을 높이고자 하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 다음과 같이 요약될 수 있다. 첫째, 기업특성정보가 주식수익률 결정에 미치는 사전적 영향을 분석한 결과 해당기업이 공개한 직전월의 기업특성 정보 중 당월의 주가에 유의적인 영향을 나타내는 기업특성은 유동성, 모멘텀 지표인 1개월, 3개월, 6개월 초과수익률, 주가 승수 중 PSR, PBR, 수익성을 나타내는 ROE와 EPS 등의 8개 요인이다. 예측된 수익률을 이용하여 구축한 10개의 분위별 포트폴리오를 대상으로 실현수익률을 분석한 결과 예측수익률이 높을수록 실현된 수익률이 일관되게 높게 나타나는 것으로 분석되었다. 둘째, Haugen Baker가 제안한 기업특성모형을 이용한 주가예측모형을 바탕으로 구성된 포트폴리오를 Fama French가 제안한 3요인 모형에 적용시킨 결과 수익률이 높을 것으로 예측된 포트폴리오의 실현수익률이 높게 나타남을 확인하였다. 즉, 우리나라 주식시장의 수익률을 예측하는 데는 Haugen Baker의 기업특성 요인모형을 응용한 모형이 더욱 적합할 수 있으며, 이를 이용하는 것이 실무적으로도 유용성이 높을 것으로 기대할 수 있다. 본 연구는 기존연구를 보완하여 보다 강건한 예측 및 운영성과를 보여주기 위해 노력하였다. 이를 위해, 시간 가변적으로 (1) 요인프리미엄을 추정, (2) 수익률예측 및 포트폴리오 조정, (3) 실현수익률 측정의 과정을 반복적으로 수행하였으며, 예측수익률이 높은 포트폴리오의 실현수익률이 상대적으로 높게 나타나는 일관된 결과를 강건하게 보여주고 있다.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.9-23
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• 2018

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential benefits or detriments of team management on fund performance in the mutual fund market. An additional purpose of this study is to examine the optimal number of managers in a fund industry for superior performance. Research design, data, and methodology - This paper investigates the effect of managerial structure on fund performance in the Korean active mutual fund market between 2001 and 2008. For this, we analyze two risk-adjusted performances measures- the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the three-factor model of Fama & French (1993). Results - First, we found that single-managed funds exhibited superior performance. Second major finding was that as the number of managers in a fund increases, the fund performance deteriorates. Finally, the results reveal that the sharpest performance drop occurs when team size increases from a 5-person team to a 6-person team. Conclusions - The results suggest that the management structure can be a source of competitive advantage for fund performance. As considering fund performance is the outcome of managers' decision-making, this study contributes to not only the financial literature but also the literature in other areas, such as management and general business.