• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure forecasting

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The Forecasting a Maximum Barbell Weight of Snatch Technique in Weightlifting (역도 인상동작 성공 시 최대 바벨무게 예측)

  • Hah, Chong-Ku;Ryu, Ji-Seon
    • Korean Journal of Applied Biomechanics
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.143-152
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    • 2005
  • The purpose of this study was to predict the failure or success of the Snatch-lifting trial as a consequence of the stand-up phase simulated in Kane's equation of motion that was effective for the dynamic analysis of multi-segment. This experiment was a case study in which one male athlete (age: 23yrs, height: 154.4cm, weight: 64.5kg) from K University was selected The system of a simulation included a multi-segment system that had one degree of freedom and one generalized coordinate for the shank segment angle. The reference frame was fixed by the Nonlinear Trans formation (NLT) method in order to set up a fixed Cartesian coordinate system in space. A weightlifter lifted a 90kg-barbell that was 75% of subject's maximum lifting capability (120kg). For this study, six cameras (Qualisys Proreflex MCU240s) and two force-plates (Kistler 9286AAs) were used for collecting data. The motion tracks of 11 land markers were attached on the major joints of the body and barbell. The sampling rates of cameras and force-plates were set up 100Hz and 1000Hz, respectively. Data were processed via the Qualisys Track manager (QTM) software. Landmark positions and force-plate amplitudes were simultaneously integrated by Qualisys system The coordinate data were filtered using a fourth-order Butterworth low pass filtering with an estimated optimum cut-off frequency of 9Hz calculated with Andrew & Yu's formula. The input data of the model were derived from experimental data processed in Matlab6.5 and the solution of a model made in Kane's method was solved in Matematica5.0. The conclusions were as follows; 1. The torque motor of the shank with 246Nm from this experiment could lift a maximum barbell weight (158.98kg) which was about 246 times as much as subject's body weight (64.5kg). 2. The torque motor with 166.5 Nm, simulated by angular displacement of the shank matched to the experimental result, could lift a maximum barbell weight (90kg) which was about 1.4 times as much as subject's body weight (64.5kg). 3. Comparing subject's maximum barbell weight (120kg) with a modeling maximum barbell weight (155.51kg) and with an experimental maximum barbell weight (90kg), the differences between these were about +35.7kg and -30kg. These results strongly suggest that if the maximum barbell weight is decided, coaches will be able to provide further knowledge and information to weightlifters for the performance improvement and then prevent injuries from training of weightlifters. It hopes to apply Kane's method to other sports skill as well as weightlifting to simulate its motion in the future study.

Effective Capacity Planning of Capital Market IT System: Reflecting Sentiment Index (자본시장 IT시스템 효율적 용량계획 모델: 심리지수 활용을 중심으로)

  • Lee, Kukhyung;Kim, Miyea;Park, Jaeyoung;Kim, Beomsoo
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.89-109
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    • 2022
  • Due to COVID-19 and soaring participation of individual investors, large-scale transactions exceeding system capacity limits have been reported frequently in the capital market. The capital market IT systems, which the impact of system failure is very critical, have encountered unexpectedly tremendous transactions in 2020, resulting in a sharp increase in system failures. Despite the fact that many companies maintained large-scale system capacity planning policies, recent transaction influx suggests that a new approach to capacity planning is required. Therefore, this study developed capital market IT system capacity planning models using machine learning techniques and analyzed those performances. In addition, the performance of the best proposed model was improved by using sentiment index that can promptly reflect the behavior of investors. The model uses empirical data including the COVID-19 period, and has high performance and stability that can be used in practice. In practical significance, this study maximizes the cost-efficiency of a company, but also presents optimal parameters in consideration of the practical constraints involved in changing the system. Additionally, by proving that the sentiment index can be used as a major variable in system capacity planning, it shows that the sentiment index can be actively used for various other forecasting demands.

Rainfall Forecasting Using Satellite Information and Integrated Flood Runoff and Inundation Analysis (I): Theory and Development of Model (위성정보에 의한 강우예측과 홍수유출 및 범람 연계 해석 (I): 이론 및 모형의 개발)

  • Choi, Hyuk Joon;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Gwangseob
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.6B
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    • pp.597-603
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study is to improve the short term rainfall forecast skill using neural network model that can deal with the non-linear behavior between satellite data and ground observation, and minimize the flood damage. To overcome the geographical limitation of Korean peninsula and get the long forecast lead time of 3 to 6 hour, the developed rainfall forecast model took satellite imageries and wide range AWS data. The architecture of neural network model is a multi-layer neural network which consists of one input layer, one hidden layer, and one output layer. Neural network is trained using a momentum back propagation algorithm. Flood was estimated using rainfall forecasts. We developed a dynamic flood inundation model which is associated with 1-dimensional flood routing model. Therefore the model can forecast flood aspect in a protected lowland by levee failure of river. In the case of multiple levee breaks at main stream and tributaries, the developed flood inundation model can estimate flood level in a river and inundation level and area in a protected lowland simultaneously.

The Economic Effects of the New and Renewable Energies Sector (신재생에너지 부문의 경제적 파급효과 분석)

  • Lim, Seul-Ye;Park, So-Yeon;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2014
  • The Korean government made the 2nd Energy Basic Plan to achieve 11% of new and renewable energies distribution rate until 2035 as a response to cope with international discussion about greenhouse gas emission reduction. Renewable energies include solar thermal, photovoltaic, bioenergy, wind power, small hydropower, geothermal energy, ocean energy, and waste energy. New energies contain fuel cells, coal gasification and liquefaction, and hydrogen. As public and private investment to enhance the distribution of new and renewable energies, it is necessary to clarify the economic effects of the new and renewable energies sector. To the end, this study attempts to apply an input-output analysis and analyze the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector using 2012 input-output table. Three topics are dealt with. First, production-inducing effect, value-added creation effect, and employment-inducing effect are quantified based on demand-driven model. Second, supply shortage effects are analyzed employing supply-driven model. Lastly, price pervasive effects are investigated applying Leontief price model. The results of this analysis are as follows. First, one won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector induces 2.1776 won of production and 0.7080 won of value-added. Moreover, the employment-inducing effect of one billion won of production or investment in new and renewable energies sector is estimated to be 9.0337 persons. Second, production shortage cost from one won of supply failure in new and renewable energies sector is calculated to be 1.6314 won, which is not small. Third, the impact of the 10% increase in new and renewable energies rate on the general price level is computed to be 0.0123%, which is small. This information can be utilized in forecasting the economic effects of new and renewable energies sector.

A Study on the Growth Diagnosis and Management Prescription for Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214) (진안 평지리 이팝나무군(천연기념물 제214호)의 생육진단 및 관리방안)

  • Rho, Jae-Hyun;Oh, Hyun-Kyung;Han, Sang-Yub;Choi, Yung-Hyun;Son, Hee-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.115-127
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    • 2018
  • This study was attempted to find out the value of cultural assets through the clear diagnosis and prescription of the dead and weakness factors of the Population of Retusa Fringe Trees in Pyeongji-ri, Jinan(Natural Monument No. 214), The results are as follows. First, Since the designation of 13 natural monuments in 1968, since 1973, many years have passed since then. In particular, despite the removal of some of the buried soil during the maintenance process, such as retreating from the fence of the primary school after 2010, Second, The first and third surviving tree of the designated trees also have many branches that are dead, the leaves are dull, and the amount of leaves is small. vitality of tree is 'extremely bad', and the first branch has already been faded by a large number of branches, and the amount of leaves is considerably low this year, so that only two flowers are bloomed. The second is also in a 'bad'state, with small leaves, low leaf density, and deformed water. The largest number 1 in the world is added to the concern that the s coverd oil is assumed to be paddy soils. Third, It is found that the composition ratio of silt is high because it is known as '[silty loam(SiL)]'. In addition, the pH of the northern soil at pH 1 was 6.6, which was significantly different from that of the other soil. In addition, the organic matter content was higher than the appropriate range, which is considered to reflect the result of continuous application for protection management. Fourth, It is considered that the root cause of failure and growth of Jinan pyeongji-ri Population of Retusa Fringe Trees group is chronic syndrome of serious menstrual deterioration due to covered soil. This can also be attributed to the newly planted succession and to some of the deaths. Fifthly, It is urgent to gradually remove the subsoil part, which is estimated to be the cause of the initial damage. Above all, it is almost impossible to remove the coverd soil after grasping the details of the soil, such as clayey soil, which is buried in the rootstock. After removal of the coverd soil, a pestle is installed to improve the respiration of the roots and the ground with Masato. And the dead 4th dead wood and the 5th and 6th dead wood are the best, and the lower layer vegetation is mown. The viable neck should be removed from the upper surface, and the bark defect should undergo surgery and induce the development of blindness by vestibule below the growth point. Sixth, The underground roots should be identified to prepare a method to improve the decompression of the root and the respiration of the soil. It is induced by the shortening of rotten roots by tracing the first half of the rootstock to induce the generation of new roots. Seventh, We try mulching to suppress weed occurrence, trampling pressure, and soil moisturizing effect. In addition, consideration should be given to the fertilization of the foliar fertilizer, the injection of the nutrients, and the soil management of the inorganic fertilizer for the continuous nutrition supply. Future monitoring and forecasting plans should be developed to check for changes continuously.

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.1-32
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    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.