• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Probability

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Development of Downstream Flood Damage Prediction Model Based on Probability of Failure Analysis in Agricultural Reservoir (3차원 수리모형을 이용한 농업용 저수지의 파괴확률에 따른 하류부 피해예측 모델 개발)

  • Jeon, Jeong Bae;Yoon, Seong Soo;Choi, Won
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.62 no.3
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2020
  • The failures of the agricultural reservoirs that most have more than 50 years, have increased due to the abnormal weather and localized heavy rains. There are many studies on the prediction of damage from reservoir collapse, however, these referenced studies focused on evaluating reservoir collapse as single unit and applyed to one and two dimensional hydrodynamic model to identify the fluid flow. This study is to estimate failure probability of spillway, sliding, bearing capacity and overflowing targeting small and medium scale agricultural reservoirs. In addition, we calculate failure probability by complex mode. Moreover, we predict downstream flood damage by reservoir failure applying three dimensional hydrodynamic model. When the reservoir destroyed, the results are as follows; (1) the flow of fluid proceeds to same stream direction and to a lower slope by potential and kinetic energy; (2) The predicted damage in downstream is evaluated that damage due to building destruction is the highest.

The Video on Demand System Failure Evaluation of Software Development Step

  • Jang, Jin-Wook
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.107-112
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    • 2019
  • Failure testing is a test that verifies that the system is operating in accordance with failure response requirements. A typical failure test approaches the operating system by identifying and testing system problems caused by unexpected errors during the operational phase. In this paper, we study how to evaluate these Failure at the software development stage. Evaluate the probability of failure due to code changes through the complexity and duplication of the code, and evaluate the probability of failure due to exceptional situations with bugs and test coverage extracted from static analysis. This paper studies the possibility of failure based on the code quality of software development stage.

Analysis on Decryption Failure Probability of TiGER (TiGER의 복호화 실패율 분석)

  • Seungwoo Lee;Jonghyun Kim;Jong Hwan Park
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.157-166
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    • 2024
  • Probability of decryption failure of a public key cryptography based on LWE(learning with errors) is determined by its architecture and parameter settings. Since large decryption failure probability leads to attacks[1] on scheme as well as degradation of performance, TiGER[2], a Ring-LWE(R)-based KEM proposed for the first round of KpqC, tried to reduce the decryption failure probability by using error correction code Xef and D2 encoding method. However, D'Anvers et al. has shown that the commonly assumed independence of each bit error is not established since in the case of an encryption scheme based on Ring-LWE(R) using an error correction code, there is error dependency which is not negligible[3]. In this paper, since TiGER does not consider the error dependency, we calcualte the decryption failure probability of TiGER by considering the error dependency. In addition, we found that the bit error probability is incorrectly calculated in TiGER, so we present the correct calculation.

Modeling Deformation Behavior of Heterogenous Microstructure of Ti-6AI-4V Alloy using Probability Functions (확률함수를 이용한 비균질 Ti-6Al-4V 합금의 변형거동 모델링)

  • Ko, Eun-Young;Kim, Tae-Won
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2003.04a
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    • pp.292-297
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    • 2003
  • A stochastic approach has been presented for superplastic deformation of Ti-6AJ-4V alloy, and probability function are used to heterogeneous phase distributions. The experimentally observed spatial correlation function are developed, and microstructural evolutions together with superplastic deformation behavior have investigated by means of the probability function. The result have shown that the probability varies approximately linearly with separation with distance, and significant deformation enhanced probability changes during the deformation. The stress-strain behavior with the evolutions of probability function can be correctly predicted by the model. The finite clement implementation using Monte Carlo simulation associated with phase re-distributions shows that better agreement with experimental data of failure strain on the test specimen.

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Reliability Analysis for Composite Laminated Plate Using Hybrid Response Surface Method (복합 반응면 기법을 이용한 복합재 적층판의 신뢰성해석)

  • Lee, Seok-Je;Kim, In-Gul
    • Composites Research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.40-47
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, the hybrid response surface method(HRSM) is proposed and examined. Hybrid response surface method calculate a approximate model repeatedly based on MPP coordinates. To verify the performance, probability of failure, MPP(Most Probable failure Point) and reliability index are calculated for nonlinear function and composite laminated plate by using reliability analysis method and compared with results by using typical response surface method(RSM). Probability of failure is calculated under the assumption of the nonlinear limit state equation and given failure criterion. The results of proposed method shows performance improvement in estimating the probability of failure.

A Risk Evaluation Model of Power Distribution Line Using Bayesian Rule -Overhead Distribution System- (베이즈 규칙을 활용한 배전선로 위험도 평가모델 -가공배전분야-)

  • Joung, Jong-Man;Park, Yong-Woo
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.6
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    • pp.870-875
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    • 2013
  • After introducing diagnosis equipment power failure prevention activities for distribution system have become more active. To do facility diagnosis and maintenance work more efficiently we need to evaluate reliability for the system and should determine the priority line with appropriate criteria. Thus, to calculate risk factor for the power distribution line that are composed of many component facilities its historical failure events for the last 5 years are collected and analysed. The failure statics show that more than 60% of various failures are related to environment factors randomly and about 20% of the failures are refer to the aging. As a strategic evaluation system reflecting these environmental influence is needed, a system on the basis of the probabilistic approach related statical variables in terms of failure rate and failure probability of electrical components is proposed. The figures for the evaluation are derived from the field failure DB. With adopting Bayesian rule we can calculate easily about conditional probability query. The proposed evaluation system is demonstrated with model system and the calculated indices representing the properties of the model line are discussed.

Consumer Misperceptions, Product Liability Law and Product Safety

  • Lee Jong-In
    • International Journal of Human Ecology
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2005
  • This paper considered the impact of changing the product liability rule from consumer to producer liability on product safety under asymmetric information. In particular, it has been attempted to remove several constraints on antecedent studies. The main results of the study are as follows: under the misperception of the risk on a product, consumers may underestimate the probability of product failure. In this case, the accident rate can be lowered under the producer's liability rule. However, even under the asymmetric information, a consumer's estimation on the probability may be converged with the expected risk level, which could be called the 'rational expectation.' In this situation the probability of product failure can be lowered under the strict liability with contributory negligence. Additionally, it is possible to reduce the probability of product failure when a legal rule that imposes liability on cheapest cost avoider is admitted.

Prediction of Durability for RC Columns with Crack and Joint under Carbonation Based on Probabilistic Approach

  • Kwon, Seung-Jun;Na, Ung-Jin
    • International Journal of Concrete Structures and Materials
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.11-18
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    • 2011
  • Carbonation in RC (reinforced concrete) structure is considered as one of the most critical deteriorations in urban cities. Although RC column has one mix condition, carbonation depth is measured spatially differently due to its various environmental and internal conditions such as sound, cracked, and joint concrete. In this paper, field investigation was performed for 27 RC columns subjected to carbonation for eighteen years. Through this investigation, carbonation distribution in sound, cracked, and joint concrete were derived with crack mappings. Considering each related area and calculated PDF (probability of durability failure) of sound, cracked, and joint concrete through Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), repairing timings for RC columns are derived based on several IPDF (intended probability of durability failure) of 1, 3, and 5%. The technique of equivalent probability including carbonation behaviors which are obtained from different conditions can provide the reasonable repairing strategy and the priority order for repairing in a given traffic service area.

A New Methodology for the Rapid Calculation of System Reliability of Complex Structures

  • Park, Sooyong
    • Architectural research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2001
  • It is quite difficult to calculate the collapse probability of a system such as statically indeterminate structure that has many possible modes or paths to complete failure and the problem has remained essentially unsolved. A structure is synthesized by several components or elements and its capacity to resist the given loads is a function of the capacity of the individual element. Thus it is reasonable to assess the probability of failure of the system based upon those of its elements. This paper proposes an efficient technique to directly assess the reliability of a complex structural system from the reliabilities of its components or elements. The theory for the calculation of the probability of a structural system is presented. The target requirements of the method and the fundamental assumptions governing the method are clearly stated. A portal frame and two trusses are selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the method by comparing the results obtained from the proposed method to those from the existing methods in the literature.

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Lifetime Reliability Analysis of Irrigation System (관개조직의 수명기간 신뢰성 해석)

  • Kim Han-Joong;Lee Jeong-Jae;Im Sang-Joon
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.35-44
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    • 2003
  • A system reliability method is proposed to decide reliable serviceability of agricultural irrigation system. Even though reliability method is applied to real engineering situations involving actual life environments and maintaining costs, a number of Issues arise as a modeling and analysis level. This article use concepts that can be described the probability of failure with time variant and series-parallel system reliability analysis model. A proposed method use survivor function that can simulate a time-variant performance function for a lifetime before it is required essential maintenance or replacement to define a target probability of failure in agricultural irrigation canal. In the further study, it is required a relationship between a state of probability of failure and current serviceability to make the optimum repair strategy to maintain appropriate serviceability of an irrigation system.