• Title/Summary/Keyword: Failure Effect Probability

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Inelastic Energy Absorption Factor for the Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of NPP Containment Structure (확률론적 지진위험도 분석을 위한 원전 격납건물의 비탄성에너지 흡수계수 평가)

  • 최인길;서정문
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.5 no.5
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 2001
  • In order to assure the safety of NPP structures, margin of safety or conservatism is incorporated in each design step. Seismic risk evaluation of NPP structures is performed based on the realistic capacity and response of structure eliminated the safety margin and conservatism. In this study, the comparative study on the various evaluation methods of the inelastic energy absorption capacity was performed. The inelastic energy absorption capacity due to the nonlinear behavior of structures has significant effect on the results of seismic probabilistic risk assessment. And the comparison study of the HCLPF(high confidence of low probability of failure) values according to the inelastic energy absorption factors was performed. As a conclusion, the inelastic energy absorption factor of NPP containment structure is estimated about 1.5~1.75. It is essential to estimate the nonlinear behavior of structure and its ductility factor correctly for the seismic risk assessment.

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Probability of Failure on Sliding of Monolithic Vertical Caisson of Composite Breakwaters (혼성제 직립 케이슨의 활동에 대한 파괴확률)

  • 이철응
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2002
  • A reliability analysis on sliding of monolithic vertical caisson of composite breakwaters is extensively carried out in order to make the basis for the applicability of reliability-based design method. The required width of caisson of composite breakwaters is determined by the deterministic design method including the effect of impulsive breaking waves as a function of water depth, also studied interactively with the results of reliability analyses. It is found that the safety factor applied in current design may be a little over-weighted magnitude for the sliding of caisson. The reliability index/failure probability is also seen to slowly decrease as the water depth increases for a given wave condition and a safety factor. In addition, optimal safety factor can roughly be evaluated by using the concept of target reliability index for several incident waves. The variations of optimal safety factor may be resulted from the different wave conditions. Finally, it may be concluded from the sensitivity studies that the reliability index may be more depended on the incident wave angles and the wave periodsrather than on the bottom slopes and the thickness of rubble mound.

Effect of limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) on the fire safety of concrete structures

  • Gupta, Sanchit;Singh, Dheerendra;Gupta, Trilok;Chaudhary, Sandeep
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.263-278
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    • 2022
  • Limestone calcined clay cement (LC3) is a low carbon alternative to conventional cement. Literature shows that using limestone and calcined clay in LC3 increases the thermal degradation of LC3 pastes and can increase the magnitude of fire risk in LC3 concrete structures. Higher thermal degradation of LC3 paste prompts this study toward understanding the fire performance of LC3 concrete and the associated magnitude of fire risk. For fire performance, concrete prepared using ordinary Portland cement (OPC), pozzolanic Portland cement (PPC) and LC3 were exposed to 16 scenarios of different elevated temperatures (400℃, 600℃, 800℃, and 1000℃) for different durations (0.5 h, 1 h, 2 h, and 4 h). After exposure to elevated temperatures, mass loss, residual ultrasonic pulse velocity (rUPV) and residual compressive strength (rCS) were measured as the residual properties of concrete. XRD (X-ray diffraction), TGA (thermogravimetric analysis) and three-factor ANOVA (analysis of variance) are also used to compare the fire performance of LC3 with OPC and PPC. Monte Carlo simulation has been used to assess the magnitude of fire risk in LC3 structures and devise recommendations for the robust application of LC3. Results show that LC3 concrete has weaker fire performance, with average rCS being 11.06% and 1.73% lower than OPC and PPC concrete. Analysis of 106 fire scenarios, in Indian context, shows lower rCS and higher failure probability for LC3 (95.05%, 2.22%) than OPC (98.16%, 0.22%) and PPC (96.48%, 1.14%). For robust application, either LC3 can be restricted to residential and educational structures (failure probability <0.5%), or LC3 can have reserve strength (factor of safety >1.08).

A Study on the Correlation between Optimal Safety of Structures and Minimization of Life Cycle Cost(LCC) (구조물의 최적안전지수와 생애주기비용의 상관관계에 관한 연구)

  • Bang, Myung-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.94-98
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    • 2014
  • This study was intend to develop the optimal design method of suspension bridge by the reliability analysis based on minimization of life cycle cost(LCC). The reliability analysis was performed considering aleatory uncertainties included in the result of numerical analysis. The optimal design was estimated based on life-cycle cost analysis depending on the result of reliability analysis. As the effect of epistemic uncertainty, the safety index (beta), failure probability (pf) and minimum life cycle cost were random variables. The high-level distributions were generated, from which the critical percentile values were obtained for a conservative bridge design through sensitivity assessment.

Seismic fragility assessment of shored mechanically stabilized earth walls

  • Sheida Ilbagitaher;Hamid Alielahi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.277-293
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    • 2024
  • Shored Mechanically Stabilized Earth (SMSE) walls are types of soil retaining structures that increase soil stability under static and dynamic loads. The damage caused by an earthquake can be determined by evaluating the probabilistic seismic response of SMSE walls. This study aimed to assess the seismic performance of SMSE walls and provide fragility curves for evaluating failure levels. The generated fragility curves can help to improve the seismic performance of these walls through assessing and controlling variables like backfill surface settlement, lateral deformation of facing, and permanent relocation of the wall. A parametric study was performed based on a non-linear elastoplastic constitutive model known as the hardening soil model with small-strain stiffness, HSsmall. The analyses were conducted using PLAXIS 2D, a Finite Element Method (FEM) program, under plane-strain conditions to study the effect of the number of geogrid layers and the axial stiffness of geogrids on the performance of SMSE walls. In this study, three areas of damage (minor, moderate, and severe) were observed and, in all cases, the wall has not completely entered the stage of destruction. For the base model (Model A), at the highest ground acceleration coefficient (1 g), in the moderate damage state, the fragility probability was 76%. These values were 62%, and 54%, respectively, by increasing the number of geogrids (Model B) and increasing the geogrid stiffness (Model C). Meanwhile, the fragility values were 99%, 98%, and 97%, respectively in the case of minor damage. Notably, the probability of complete destruction was zero percent in all models.

Wind fragility analysis of RC chimney with temperature effects by dual response surface method

  • Datta, Gaurav;Sahoo, Avinandan;Bhattacharjya, Soumya
    • Wind and Structures
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.59-73
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    • 2020
  • Wind fragility analysis (WFA) of concrete chimney is often executed disregarding temperature effects. But combined wind and temperature effect is the most critical limit state to define the safety of a chimney. Hence, in this study, WFA of a 70 m tall RC chimney for combined wind and temperature effects is explored. The wind force time-history is generated by spectral representation method. The safety of chimney is assessed considering limit states of stress failure in concrete and steel. A moving-least-squares method based dual response surface method (DRSM) procedure is proposed in WFA to alleviate huge computational time requirement by the conventional direct Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach. The DRSM captures the record-to-record variation of wind force time-histories and uncertainty in system parameters. The proposed DRSM approach yields fragility curves which are in close conformity with the most accurate direct MCS approach within substantially less computational time. In this regard, the error by the single-level RSM and least-squares method based DRSM can be easily noted. The WFA results indicate that over temperature difference of 150℃, the temperature stress is so pronounced that the probability of failure is very high even at 30 m/s wind speed. However, below 100℃, wind governs the design.

The Estimation of Dynamic/Impact Strength Characteristics of High Tensile Steel by Dynamic Lethargy Coefficient (동적무기력계수에 의한 고장력강의 동적.충격강도 특성 평가)

  • 송준혁;박정민;채희창;강희용;양성모
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.96-100
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this paper is presented a rational method of predicting dynamic/impact tensile strength of high tensile steel materials widely used fur structural material of automobiles. It is known that the ultimate strength is related with the loading speed and the Lethargy Coefficient from the tensile test. The Dynamic Lethargy Coefficient is proportional to the disorientation of the molecular structure and indicates the magnitude of defects resulting from the probability of breaking the bonds responsible for its strength. The coefficient is obtained from the simple tensile test such as failure time and stresses at fracture. These factors not only affect the static strength but also have a great influence on the dynamic/impact characteristics of the joist and the adjacent structures. This strength is used to analyze the failure life prediction of mechanical system by virtue of its material fracture. The impact tensile test is performed to evaluate the life parameters due to loading speed with the proposed method. Also the evaluation of the dynamic/impact effect on the material tensile strength characteristics is compared with the result of Campbell-Cooper equation to verify the proposed method.

Effect of Bracket and H-beam Members on the Sungsoo Grand Bridge (브라켓 및 H-빔 부재가 성수대교 붕괴에 미친 영향)

  • 조효남;임종권;안중산
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 1998.04a
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    • pp.422-430
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    • 1998
  • This paper presents the results of a major parametric study on the collapse cause of the Sungsoo Grand Bridge, a Gerber-type continuous truss bridge, which had collapsed just at the 15th year since opening to traffic. Among the various collapse causes such as poor design, poor welding, poor maintenance, and heavy traffic loads, this study focuses on the collapse cause assessment incorporating the effects of braket and H-beam members right below the expansion joint of the suspended truss. A local FEM analysis using fine shell elements is carrided out for the more precise estimation of stress range of the vertical pin-connected hanger whose fatigue fracture triggered the collapse of the bridge. Both the conventional S-N approach and the Ang-Munse's fatigue reliability method are used for the evaluation of the fatigue life and fatigue failure probability for the assessment based on all the available results of various field and labolatory tests. From these observations, It may be affirmatively stated that the effects of bracket and H-beam members accelerated the fatigue failure, and thus should be regarded as one of major causes that triggered the bridge collapse

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Sensitivity analysis of serological tests for detection of disease in cattle (소 질병 검출을 위한 혈청학적 검사의 민감도 평가)

  • Lee, Sang-Jin;Moon, Oun-Kyong;Pak, Son-Il
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.50 no.1
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    • pp.43-48
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    • 2010
  • Animal disease surveillance system, defined as the continuous investigation of a given population to detect the occurrence of disease or infection for control purposes, has been key roles to assess the health status of an animal population and, more recently, in international trade of animal and animal products with regard to risk assessment. Especially, for a system aiming to determine whether or not a disease is present in a population sensitivity of the system should be maintained high enough not to miss an infected animal. Therefore, when planning the implementation of surveillance system a number of factors that affecting surveillance sensitivity should be taken into account. Of these parameters sample size is of important, and different approaches are used to calculate sample size, usually depending on the objective of surveillance systems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of the current national serological surveillance programs for four selected bovine diseases assuming a specified sampling plan, to examine factors affecting the probability of detection, and to provide sample sizes required for achieving surveillance goal of detecting at least an infection in a given population. Our results showed that, for example, detecting low level of prevalence (0.2% for bovine tuberculosis) requires selection of all animals per typical Korean cattle farm (n = 17), and thus risk-based target surveillance for high risk groups can be an alternative strategy to increase sensitivity while not increasing overall sampling efforts. The minimum sample size required for detecting at least one positive animal was sharply increased as the disease prevalence is low. More importantly, high reliability of prevalence estimation was expected with increased sampling fraction even when zero-infected animal was identified. The effect of sample size is also discussed in terms of the maximum prevalence when zero-infected animals were identified and on the probability of failure to detect an infection. We suggest that for many serological surveillance systems, diagnostic performance of the testing method, sample size, prevalence, population size, and statistical confidence need to be considered to correctly interpret results of the system.

Differential Effects of Recovery Efforts on Products Attitudes (제품태도에 대한 회복노력의 차별적 효과)

  • Kim, Cheon-GIl;Choi, Jung-Mi
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.33-58
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    • 2008
  • Previous research has presupposed that the evaluation of consumer who received any recovery after experiencing product failure should be better than the evaluation of consumer who did not receive any recovery. The major purposes of this article are to examine impacts of product defect failures rather than service failures, and to explore effects of recovery on postrecovery product attitudes. First, this article deals with the occurrence of severe and unsevere failure and corresponding service recovery toward tangible products rather than intangible services. Contrary to intangible services, purchase and usage are separable for tangible products. This difference makes it clear that executing an recovery strategy toward tangible products is not plausible right after consumers find out product failures. The consumers may think about backgrounds and causes for the unpleasant events during the time gap between product failure and recovery. The deliberation may dilutes positive effects of recovery efforts. The recovery strategies which are provided to consumers experiencing product failures can be classified into three types. A recovery strategy can be implemented to provide consumers with a new product replacing the old defective product, a complimentary product for free, a discount at the time of the failure incident, or a coupon that can be used on the next visit. This strategy is defined as "a rewarding effort." Meanwhile a product failure may arise in exchange for its benefit. Then the product provider can suggest a detail explanation that the defect is hard to escape since it relates highly to the specific advantage to the product. The strategy may be called as "a strengthening effort." Another possible strategy is to recover negative attitude toward own brand by giving prominence to the disadvantages of a competing brand rather than the advantages of its own brand. The strategy is reflected as "a weakening effort." This paper emphasizes that, in order to confirm its effectiveness, a recovery strategy should be compared to being nothing done in response to the product failure. So the three types of recovery efforts is discussed in comparison to the situation involving no recovery effort. The strengthening strategy is to claim high relatedness of the product failure with another advantage, and expects the two-sidedness to ease consumers' complaints. The weakening strategy is to emphasize non-aversiveness of product failure, even if consumers choose another competitive brand. The two strategies can be effective in restoring to the original state, by providing plausible motives to accept the condition of product failure or by informing consumers of non-responsibility in the failure case. However the two may be less effective strategies than the rewarding strategy, since it tries to take care of the rehabilitation needs of consumers. Especially, the relative effect between the strengthening effort and the weakening effort may differ in terms of the severity of the product failure. A consumer who realizes a highly severe failure is likely to attach importance to the property which caused the failure. This implies that the strengthening effort would be less effective under the condition of high product severity. Meanwhile, the failing property is not diagnostic information in the condition of low failure severity. Consumers would not pay attention to non-diagnostic information, and with which they are not likely to change their attitudes. This implies that the strengthening effort would be more effective under the condition of low product severity. A 2 (product failure severity: high or low) X 4 (recovery strategies: rewarding, strengthening, weakening, or doing nothing) between-subjects design was employed. The particular levels of product failure severity and the types of recovery strategies were determined after a series of expert interviews. The dependent variable was product attitude after the recovery effort was provided. Subjects were 284 consumers who had an experience of cosmetics. Subjects were first given a product failure scenario and were asked to rate the comprehensibility of the failure scenario, the probability of raising complaints against the failure, and the subjective severity of the failure. After a recovery scenario was presented, its comprehensibility and overall evaluation were measured. The subjects assigned to the condition of no recovery effort were exposed to a short news article on the cosmetic industry. Next, subjects answered filler questions: 42 items of the need for cognitive closure and 16 items of need-to-evaluate. In the succeeding page a subject's product attitude was measured on an five-item, six-point scale, and a subject's repurchase intention on an three-item, six-point scale. After demographic variables of age and sex were asked, ten items of the subject's objective knowledge was checked. The results showed that the subjects formed more favorable evaluations after receiving rewarding efforts than after receiving either strengthening or weakening efforts. This is consistent with Hoffman, Kelley, and Rotalsky (1995) in that a tangible service recovery could be more effective that intangible efforts. Strengthening and weakening efforts also were effective compared to no recovery effort. So we found that generally any recovery increased products attitudes. The results hint us that a recovery strategy such as strengthening or weakening efforts, although it does not contain a specific reward, may have an effect on consumers experiencing severe unsatisfaction and strong complaint. Meanwhile, strengthening and weakening efforts were not expected to increase product attitudes under the condition of low severity of product failure. We can conclude that only a physical recovery effort may be recognized favorably as a firm's willingness to recover its fault by consumers experiencing low involvements. Results of the present experiment are explained in terms of the attribution theory. This article has a limitation that it utilized fictitious scenarios. Future research deserves to test a realistic effect of recovery for actual consumers. Recovery involves a direct, firsthand experience of ex-users. Recovery does not apply to non-users. The experience of receiving recovery efforts can be relatively more salient and accessible for the ex-users than for non-users. A recovery effort might be more likely to improve product attitude for the ex-users than for non-users. Also the present experiment did not include consumers who did not have an experience of the products and who did not perceive the occurrence of product failure. For the non-users and the ignorant consumers, the recovery efforts might lead to decreased product attitude and purchase intention. This is because the recovery trials may give an opportunity for them to notice the product failure.

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