• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.313-326
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• 2017

Based on the reliability theory and limit analysis method, the roof stability of a shallow tunnel is investigated under the condition of surface settlement. Nonlinear Hoek-Brown failure criterion is adopted in the present analysis. With the consideration of surface settlement, the internal energy and external work are calculated. Equating the rate of energy dissipation to the external rate of work, the expression of support pressure is derived. With the help of variational approach, a performance function is proposed to reliability analysis. Improved response surface method is used to calculate the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and the failure probability. In order to assess the validity of the present results, Monte-Carlo simulation is performed to examine the correctness. Sensitivity analysis is used to estimate the influence of different variables on reliability index. Among random variables, the unit weight significantly affects the reliability index. It is found that the greater coefficient of variation of variables lead to the higher failure probability. On the basis of the discussions, the reliability-based design is achieved to calculate the required tunnel support pressure under different situations when the target reliability index is obtained.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.29 no.9
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• pp.71-80
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• 2013

This work studies the reliability analysis of a slope that considers multiple failure modes. The analysis consists of two parts. First, significant failure modes that contribute most to system reliability are determined. The so-called barrier method proposed by Der Kiureghian and Dakessian to identify significant failure modes successively is employed. Second, the failure probability for the slope is estimated on the basis of the identified significant failure modes and corresponding design points. For reliability problems entailing multiple design points, failure probability can be estimated by the multi-point first-order reliability method (FORM), Ditlevsen's bounds method, and Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, a comparative study between these methods has been made through example problems. Analysis results showed that while a soil slope may have a large number of potential slip surfaces, its system failure probability is usually governed by a few significant slip surfaces. Therefore, the most important step in the system reliability analysis for a soil slope is to identify all the significant failure modes in an efficient way.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.263-271
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• 2016

Purpose: A slurry pump for flue gas desulfurization system performs a role that discharges the slurry of a plaster shape in a thermal power plant. Since a slurry pump transfers the slurry by the centrifugal force, it has the friction wear in the impeller and liner because of the slurry. Methods: In this study, failure analysis and test evaluation on the slurry pump have been proposed and the process that reliability of the product improves through design improvement has been presented. And failure cause of typical failure case has been investigated and improvement design has been presented. Results: Reliability improvement is established by analysis of the test results of before and after acceleration test. Conclusion: This study can be provided to improve the product reliability through failure analysis of a slurry pump.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.16 no.1
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• pp.56-63
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.565-578
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• 2016

A probabilistic based systems approach is addressed in this study for the reliability prediction of solid rocket motors (SRM). To achieve this goal, quantitative Failure Modes, Effects and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) approach is employed to determine the reliability of components, which are integrated into the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) to obtain the system reliability. The quantitative FMECA is implemented by burden and capability approach when they are available. Otherwise, the semi-quantitative FMECA is taken using the failure rate handbook. Among the many failure modes in the SRM, four most important problems are chosen to illustrate the burden and capability approach, which are the rupture, fracture of the case, and leak due to the jointed bolt and O-ring seal failure. Four algorithms are employed to determine the failure probability of these problems, and compared with those by the Monte Carlo Simulation as well as the commercial code NESSUS for verification. Overall, the study offers a comprehensive treatment of the reliability practice for the SRM development, and may be useful across the wide range of propulsion systems in the aerospace community.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.204-216
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• 1999

Failure physics and statistical lifetime analysis constitute the two extreme ends of the reliability engineering spectrum, and studies that relate failure mechanisms to failure distributions have been near non-existent. This paper is an attempt to stimulate interest to fill the gap between the two extremes and proposes an approach of combining them through i) developing a failure mechanism model, ii) generating failure times by Monte Carlo simulation with the model, iii) deriving the failure time distribution and evaluating the product reliability, and iv) improving the product reliability by the sensitivity analysis. An application of the proposed approach to the BGA(Ball Grid Array) surface mount package is also provided.

• IE interfaces
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.382-392
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• 2012

Reactor protection system to keep nuclear safety and operational economy of plants requires high reliability. Such a high reliability of the system can be achieved through the redundant design of components. However, common cause failures of components reduce the benefits of redundant design. Thus, the common cause failure analysis, to accurately calculate the reliability of the reactor protection system, is carried out using alpha-factor model. Analysis results to 24 operating months are that 1) the system reliability satisfies the reliability goal of EPRI-URD and 2) the common cause failure contributes 90% of the system unreliability. The uncertainty analysis using alpha factor parameters of 0.05 and 0.95 quantile values shows significantly large difference in the system unreliability.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 2003.05a
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• pp.181-186
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• 2003

There are many uncertainties in structural failures or structures, so probabilistic failure cause assessment should be performed in order to consider the uncertainties. However, in many cases of forensic engineering, the failure cause assessments are performed by deterministic approach though number of uncertainties are existed in the failures or structures. Thus, deterministic approach may have possibility for leading to unreasonable and unrealistic failure cause assessment due to ignorance of the uncertainties. Therefore, probabilistic approach is needed to complement the shortcoming of deterministic approach and to perform the more reasonable and realistic failure cause assessment. In this study, reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability based forensic engineering) is performed, which can incorporate uncertainties in failures and structures. For more practical application, the modified ETA technique is proposed, which automatically generates the defected structural model, performs structural analysis and reliability analysis, and calculates the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of the failure scenarios. Also, for more precise reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in forensic report.

• Journal of Applied Reliability
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.316-324
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• 2017

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to determine the replacement cycle applied age replacement policy by reliability analysis based on railway vehicle contactor's failure history data. Method: We performed reliability analysis based on railway vehicle contactor's failure history data. We found a suitable distribution by goodness of fit test and predicted the reliability through estimation of scale & shape parameter. Considering cost information we determined the replacement cycle that minimize the opportunity cost. Result: Suitable distribution was the Weibull and scale parameter & shape parameter are estimated by reliability analysis. The replacement cycle was predicted and MTTF, $B_6$ percentile life were suggested additionally. Conclusion: We confirmed that failure rate type of railway vehicle contactor is degradation model having a time dependent characteristic and examined the replacement cycle in our country's operating environment. We expect that this study result contribute to railway operation agency for maintenance policy decision.

• Aerospace Engineering and Technology
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.183-193
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• 2008

This paper shows the results of failure mode analysis and the system-level reliability model for the flight test of KSLV-I upper stage. First, the critical 14 functions of KSLV-I upper stage are identified and the mission profile of the flight test is analyzed. Then, based on the functional analysis and the mission profile analysis, we construct a hierarchical structure of failure modes and a system-level reliability model for the flight test of KSLV-I upper stage.