• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.33 no.1
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• pp.9-19
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• 2009

This paper describes empirical approach methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of maritime transportation accident (MTA) of a merchant ship. The principal aim of this project is to estimate the risk of MTA that could degrade the ship safety by analyzing the underlying factors contributing to MTA based on the IMO's Formal Safety Assessment techniques and, by assessing the probabilistic risk level of MTA based on the quantitative risk assessment methodology. The probabilistic risk level of MTA to Risk Index (RI) composed with Probability Index (PI) and Severity Index (SI) can be estimated from proposed Maritime Transportation Accident Model (MTAM) based on Bayesian Network with Bayesian theorem Then the applicability of the proposed MTAM can be evaluated using the scenario group with 355 core damaged accident history. As evaluation results, the correction rate of estimated PI, $r_{Acc}$ is shown as 82.8%, the over ranged rate of PI variable sensitivity with $S_p{\gg}1.0$ and $S_p{\ll}1.0$ is shown within 10%, the averaged error of estimated SI, $\bar{d_{SI}}$ is shown as 0.0195 and, the correction rate of estimated RI, $r_{Acc}$(%), is shown as 91.8%. These results clearly shown that the proposed accident model and methodology can be use in the practical maritime transportation field.

• Radiation Oncology Journal
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.128-137
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• 2006

Purpose: We investigated whether a relationship exists between tumor control dose 50 ($TCD_{50}$) or tumor growth delay (TGD) and radiation induced apoptosis (RIA) in syngeneic murine tumors. Also we investigated the biological markers that can predict radiosensitivity in murine tumor system through analysis of relationship between $TCD_{50}$, TGD, RIA and constitutive expression levels of the genetic products regulating RIA. Materials and Methods: Syngeneic murine tumors such as ovarian adenocarcinoma, mammary carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, fibrosarcoma, hepatocarcinoma were used In this study. C3H/HeJ mice were bred and maintained in our specific pathogen free mouse colony and were $8{\sim}12$ weeks old when used for the experiments. The tumors, growing in the right hind legs of mice, were analyzed for $TCD_{50}$, TGD, and RIA at 8 mm in diameter. The tumors were also analyzed for the constitutive expression levels of $p53,\;p21^{WAF1/CIP1},\;BAX,\;Bcl-2,\;Bcl-X_L,\;Bcl-X_S$, and p34. Correlation analysis was peformed whether the level of RIA were correlated with $TCD_{50}$ or TGD, and the constitutive expression levels of genetic products regulating RIA were correlated with $TCD_{50}$, TGD, RIA. Results: The level of RIA showed a significant positive correlation (R=0.922, p=0.026) with TGD, and showed a trend to correlation (R=-0.848), marginally significant correlation with $TCD_{50}$ (p=0.070). It indicates that tumors that respond to radiation with high percentage of apoptosis were more radiosensitive. The constitutive expression levels of $p21^{WAF1/CIP1}$ and 34 showed a significant correlation either with $TCD_{50}$ (R=0.893, p=0.041 and R=0.904, p=0.035) or with TGD (R=-0.922, p=0.026 and R=-0.890 p=0.043). The tumors with high constitutive expression levels of $p21^{WAF1/CIP1}$ or p34 were less radiosensitive than those with low expression. Conclusion: Radiosensitivity may be predicted with the level of RIA in murine tumors. The constitutive expression levels of $p21^{WAF1/CIP1}$ or p34 can be used as biological markers which predict the radiosensitivity.