• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 1994.04a
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• pp.199-208
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• 1994

One of the main objectives of the study is to propose a practical but realistic limit state model considering combined effect of axial and bending load for reliability analysis and safety assessment of cable-stayed bridge under vehicle traffic loads. This paper is intended to propose a new approach for the evaluation of reserved load carrying capacity of cable-stayed bridge under vehicle traffic loads in terms of equivalent strength, which may be defined as a bridge strength corresponding to the reliability index of the bridge. This can be derived from an inverse process based on the concept of FOSM form of reliability index. AFOSM and IST methods are used for the reliability analysis of the proposed models. The proposed reliability model and methods are applied to the safety assessment of Jindo Bridge which is one of major two cable-stayed bridges in Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korean Geotechical Society Conference
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• 2006.03a
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• pp.466-475
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• 2006

Reliability analysis between safety factor and reliability index for driven and bored pile load capacity was analyzed in this study. 0.1B, Chin, De Beer, and Davisson's methods were used for determining pile load capacity by using load-settlement curve from pile load test. Each method define ultimate, yield and allowable pile load capacities. LCPC method using CPT results was performed for comparing with results of pile load test. Based on FOSM analysis using load factors, it is obtained that reliability indices for ultimate pile load capacity were higher than those of yield and allowable condition. Present safety factor 2 for yield and allowable load capacities are not enough to satisfy target reliability index $2.0\sim2.5$. However, it is sufficient for ultimate pile load capacity using safety factor 3.

• Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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• 1993.10a
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• pp.195-200
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• 1993

This paper develops practical and realistic reliability models and methods for the evalusion of system reliability and system reliability-based rating of R.C box-girder bridge superstructures. The precise prediction of reserved carrying capacity of bridge as a system is extremely difficult expecially when the bridges are highly redundant and significantly deteriorated or damaged. This paper proposes a new approach for the evaluation of reserved system carrying capacity of bridges in terms of equivalent system-strength, which may be defined as a bridge system-strength corresponding to the system reliability of the bridge. This can be derived from an inverse process based on the concept of FOSM form of system reliability index. The strength limit state models for R.C box-girder bridges suggested in the paper are based on the basic bending and shear strength. and the system reliability problem of box-girder superstructure is formulated as parallel-series models obtained from the FMA(Failure Mode Approach) based on major failure mechanism or critical failure states of each girder. AFOSM and IST(Importance Sampling Technique) simulation algorithm is used for the reliability analysis of the proposed models.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.6 no.2
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• pp.45-65
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• 2010

There has been tighten up the need of seismic retrofit about 31 public facilites since published "Korean Earthquake Damage Prevention Law". Therefore, seismic studies have been developed and enforced the studies. Measuring dynamic stiffness of subsurface materials influence on seismic performance evaluation to build up seismic retrofit. The soil dynamic properties for seismic performance evaluation are N-value from using SPT(standard penetration test), dynamic shear elastic modulus and dynamic deformation modulus using laboratory tests. The most unscientific element in ground dynamic properties involved uncertainties is obviously N-value using SPT. This study shows that effect of N-value included natural and artificial uncertainties to seismic performance evaluation of ground structures is not only approached probabilistic analysis using FOSM method and tornado diagram, but also review how to spread effect of seismic performance evaluation of ground structures.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2011.04a
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• pp.665-668
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• 2011

철근콘크리트 구조물은 타설 후 시간이 경과함에 따라 물리적인 요인과 화학적인 요인으로 인하여 열화가 발생한다. 열화를 고려한 구조해석에서 모든 열화 관련 변수를 고려하는 것은 비효율적이다. 따라서 구조물의 거동과 밀접한 관련이 있는 중요열화변수를 정의하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 철근콘크리트 전단벽의 경년열화 해석시 중요변수를 고려하기 위하여 민감도해석을 수행하였다. 해석결과에 의하면 재료의 경화와 관련한 변수들이 열화와 관련한 변수들보다 지진응답이 민감하게 나타났다. 해석모델의 낮은 철근비로 인하여 콘크리트의 탈락에 의한 지진응답의 변화보다 철근의 단면손실에 의한 지진응답의 변화가 크게 나타났다. 만약 원전과 같이 철근비가 높은 전단벽에서는 철근의 단면손실도 지진응답에 대한 중요변수가 될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.277-288
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• 2017

A probabilistic risk analysis of levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of possible flood scenarios. It requires the uncertainty analysis of all the risk components, including hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical parts computed by employing MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) and FOSM (First-Order Second Moment), presents a joint probability combined each probability. The methodology was applied to a 12.5 km reach from upstream to downstream of the Gangjeong-Goryeong weir, including 6 levee reaches, in Nakdong river. Overtopping risks were estimated by computing flood stage corresponding to 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood causing levee overflow. Geotechnical risks were evaluated by considering seepage, slope stability, and rapid drawdown along the levee reach without overflow. A probability-based compound risk will contribute to rising effect of safety and economic aspects for levee design, then expect to use the index for riverside structure design in the future.

• Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.7 no.3
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• pp.187-198
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• 1995

This paper develops practical and reallstic reliabllity models and methods for the evaluation of system rehability and system rellabllity based ratlng of R.C box glrder bridge superstructures. The precise prediction of reberved carrying capacity of bridge as d system is extremely difficult especially when the brldges are highly redundant and slgnlficantly deter 1or;itcd or dainagetl. Thls papel proposes a nt2w approach for the evaluation of reseived system c,drrying capaaty of br~dges in terms ot equ~vdleiit system strength, which may b~ ddcflned as a brtdge system strength correipcmdlng tu the system rehability of the bridge. This cm be ticrAvcd from an Inverse process bami or1 the con~ept of FOSM(F1rst Order Second Moment) form of system reliabihty index. The sf rength llmt state models for K C box girder br~dges suggested In the paper dre based on the basi~ bending and shear strength And thc system reliatxllty pro,~lerri of box gritier super structure 1s formuldted as parallel serles models obtalncd f ~ o m thc FMA(Fdilure blode Rp proath) based on major failure mc>clmusrns or c~itlcal fdure ,>tatcs of each nuder .WOSM(Ad-vanced First Order Second Moment) and IST(1mportance Sampling Technique) simulation algorithm are used for the reliability analysis of the proposed models.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.51-59
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• 1993

This paper develops practical and realistic reliability models and methods for the evaluation of system-reliability and system reliability-based rating of various types of box-girder bridge superstructures. The strength limit state model for box-girder bridges suggested in the paper are based on not only the basic flexural strength but also the strength interaction equations which simultaneously take into account flexure, shear and torsion. And the system reliability problem of box-girder superstructure is formulated as parallel-series models obtained from the FMA(Failure Mode Approach) based on major failure mechanisms or critical failure states of each girder. In the paper, an improved IST(Importance Sampling Technique) simulation algorithm is used for the system reliability analysis of the proposed models. This paper proposes a practical but rational approach for the evaluation of capacity rating in terms of the equivalent system-capacity rating corresponding to the estimated system-reliability index which is derived based on the concept of the equivalent FOSM(First Order Second Moment) form of system reliability index. The results of the reliability evaluation and rating of existing bridges indicate that the reserved reliability and capacity rating at system level are significantly different from those of element reliability or conventional methods especially in the case of highly redundant box-girder bridges.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.121-140
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• 1994

This paper presents the probabilistic model to evaluate the three-dimensional stability of layered deposits and c-0 soil slopes. Rotational slides are assumed with a cylindroid control part terminated with plane ends. And the potential failure surfaces in this study are assumed with the logarithmic spiral curve refracted at boundary of layers. This model takes into consideration the spatial variabilities of soil properties and the uncertainties stemming from insufficient number of samples and the discrepancies between laboratory measured and in -situ values of shear strength parameters. From the probabilistic approxi mate method (FOSM and SOSM method), the mean and variance of safety factor are calculated, respectively. And the programs based on above models is developed and a case study is analysed in detail to study the sensitivity of results to variations in different parameters by using the programs developed in this study. On the basis of thin study the following conclusions could be stated : (1) The sensitivity analysis shown that the probability of failure is more sensitive to the uncertainty of the angle of internal friction than that of the cohesion, (2) The total 3-D proability of failure and the critical width of failure are significantly affected by total width of slope. It is found that the total 3-D probability of failure and the critical width of failure increase with increasing the slope width when seismic forces do not exist and the total 3-D probability of failure increases with increasing the slope width and the critical width of failure decreases when seismic intensity is relatively large, (3) A decrease in the safety factor (due to effect such as a rise in the mean ground water level, lower shear strength parameters, lower values for the correction factors, etc.) would result in reduction in the critical width of failure.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.22 no.11
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• pp.65-73
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• 2006

Reliability between safety factor and reliability index for driven and bored pile load capacity was analyzed in this study. 0.1B, Chin, De Beer, and Davisson's methods were used for determining pile load capacity by using load-settlement curve from pile load test. Each method defines ultimate yield and allowable pile load capacities. LCPC method using CPT results was performed for comparing results of pile load test. Based on FOSM analysis using load factors, it is obtained that reliability indices for ultimate pile load capacity were higher than those of yield and allowable condition. Present safety factor 2 for yield and allowable load capacities is not enough to satisfy target reliability index $2.0{\sim}2.5$. However, it is sufficient for ultimate pile load capacity using safety factor 3.