• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.12 no.6
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• pp.129-139
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• 2008

Due to uncertainty of numerous variables in durability model, a probalistic approach is increasing. Monte Carlo simulation (Level III method) is an easily accessible method, but requires a lot of repeated operations. This paper evaluated the effectiveness of First Order Second Moment method (Level II method), which is more convenient and time saving method than MCS, to predict the corrosion initiation in harbor concrete structure. Mean Value First Order Second Moment method (MV FOSM) and Advanced First Order Second Moment method (AFOSM) are applied to the error function solution of Fick's second law modeling chloride diffusion. Reliability index and failure probability based on MV FOSM and AFOSM are compared with the results by MCS. The comparison showed that AFOSM and MCS predict the similar reliability index and MV FOSM underestimates the probability of corrosion initiation by chloride attack. Also, the sensitivity of variables in durability model to corrosion initiation probability was evaluated on the basis of AFOSM. The results showed that AFOSM is a simple and efficient method to estimate the probability of corrosion initiation in harbor structures.

• Geotechnical Engineering
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• v.5 no.3
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• pp.39-50
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• 1989

A method is investigated to analyze the reliability of the gravity retaining wall which is designed to allow a limiting translational movement induces by the earthquake loading. Application of FOSM method to the Richards and Elms model yields a practical procedure for the analyses of the reliability and sensitivity of the retaining wall sujected to the earthquake. After examination of the practice (or the earthquake design of the retaining wall, the methods of the reliability analysis are considered. Finally, this study presents the step-by.step procedure for analyzing the reliability of the earth retaining structure for pratical convinience.

• Journal of Industrial Technology
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• v.6
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• pp.39-48
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• 1986

This paper examines the effects on safety index analysis with Level II Second-Moment Method. The general two variable problem is examined by means of Cornell safety index ${\beta}c$ Rosenblueth-Esteva safety index ${\beta}_{RE}$ Rackwitz-Fiessler safety index by iterative method and Practical FOSM safety index ${\beta}_p$, which based partly on the concepts given by Paloheimo and Hannus, proposed the algorithm in this paper. The calculated examples have shown that safety index by Practical FOSM Method proposed in this paper would be similar to those in the method by Rosenblueth-Esteva or Rackwitz-Fissler and be simpler in calculation than the Rackwitz's Advanced FOSM Method, in which the iterative procedure has to be used.

• Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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• v.20 no.10
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• pp.1662-1669
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• 2006

Since randomness and uncertainties of design parameters are inherent, the robust design has gained an ever increasing importance in mechanical engineering. The robustness is assessed by the measure of performance variability around mean value, which is called as standard deviation. Hence, constraints in robust optimization problem can be approached as probability constraints in reliability based optimization. Then, the FOSM (first order second moment) method or the AFOSM (advanced first order second moment) method can be used to calculate the mean values and the standard deviations of functions describing constraints and object. Among two methods, AFOSM method has some advantage over FOSM method in evaluation of probability. Nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain the mean value and the standard deviation of objective function using AFOSM method, because it requires that the mean value of function is always positive. This paper presented a special technique to overcome this weakness of AFOSM method. The mean value and the standard deviation of objective function by the proposed method are reliable as shown in examples compared with results by FOSM method.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.27 no.6
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• pp.493-500
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• 2014

This paper presents findings from the assessment of the volcanic ash fragility for multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouse and livestock shed among the agricultural facilities. The volcanic ash fragility was evaluated by using a combination of the FOSM (first-order second-moment) method, available statistics of volcanic load, facility specifications, and building code. In this study, the evaluated volcanic ash fragilities represent the conditional probability of failure of the agricultural facilities over the full range of volcanic ash loads. For the evaluation, 6 types(ie., 2 single span, 2 tree crop, and 2 double span types) of multi-hazard resisting vinyl greenhouses and 3 types(ie., standard, coast, and mountain types) of livestock sheds are considered. All volcanic ash fragilities estimated in this study were fitted by using parameters of the GEV(generalized extreme value) distribution function, and the obtained parameters were complied into a database to be used in future. The volcanic ash fragilities obtained in this study are planning to be used to evaluate risk by volcanic ash when Mt. Baekdu erupts.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.37-45
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• 2009

The identification of significant structural components under seismic loading through a probabilistic approach is of interest to many structural engineers. The First-Order Second Moment method can be used to achieve this goal by estimating uncertainty in the seismic demand of a structural system induced by the capacity uncertainties of each structural component. Significant structural components are those to which the seismic demand of the structure is more sensitive than it is to other ones. The developed procedure demonstrated by a ductile reinforced concrete frame shows that it is computationally effective and robust in terms of identifying significant structural components.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• v.6 no.5
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• pp.555-569
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• 1998

The reliability of antenna tower designed for a n-year design wind speed is determined by considering the variability of the strength of the component members and of the mean wind speed. For obtaining the n-year design wind speed, maximum annual wind speed is assumed to follow Gumbel Type-1 distribution. Following this distribution of the wind speed, the mean and standard deviation of stresses in each component member are worked out. The variability of the strength of members is defined by means of the nominal strength and a coefficient of variation. The probability of failure of the critical members of tower is determined by the first order second moment method (FOSM) of reliability analysis. Using the above method, the reliability against allowable stress failure of the critical members as well as the system reliabilities for a 75 m tall antenna tower, designed for n-year design wind speed, are presented.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.1 no.4
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• pp.287-302
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• 1998

This paper formulates a probabilistic model which is able to represent the maximum instantaneous wind velocity. Unlike the classical methods, where the randomness is circumscribed within the mean maximum component, this model relies also on the randomness of the maximum value of the turbulent fluctuation. The application of the FOSM method furnishes the first and second statistical moments in closed form. The comparison between the results herein obtained and those supplied by classical methods points out the central role of the turbulence intensity. Its importance is exalted when extending the analysis from the wind velocity to the wind pressure.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.194-200
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• 1998

Risk, probability of failure, which includes various uncertainties and influential factors of performance should be accounted for in engineering system. Recently, several different methods to analysis risk evaluation evolved and one of the practical method is FOSM (First Order Second Moment Method ). FOSM method is derived in terms of terms coefficient of variance to uncertainties which influence various factor. For risk evaluation and uncertainty analysis in hydraulic design system, load-capacity relationship is adopted in this paper. Sample catchment with design of sewer system is applied, which plots safety factor vs. risk. Risk evaluation and uncertainty analysis are very to important develop optimal design model in hydraulic system

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.595-603
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• 2010

Monte-Carlo simulation technique is often used in order to predict service life of concrete structure subjected to chloride penetration in marine environment based on probability theory. Monte-Carlo simulation method, however, the method gives different results every time that the simulation is run. On the other hand, moment method, which is frequently used in reliability analysis, needs negligible computational cost compared with simulation technique and gives a constant result for the same problem. Thus, in this study, moment method was applied to the calculation of corrosion-initiation probability. For this purpose, computer programs to calculate failure probabilities are developed using first-order second moment (FOSM) and second-order second moment (SOSM) methods, respectively. From the analysis examples with the developed programs, SOSM was found to give a more accurate result than FOSM does. The sensitivity analysis has shown that the factor affecting the corrosion-initiation probability the most was the cover depth, and the corrosion-initiation probability was influenced more by its coefficient of variation than its mean value.