• 제목/요약/키워드: Extreme flood

검색결과 220건 처리시간 0.027초

수치모형을 이용한 도시 하천의 홍수특성 분석 (Analysis of Flood Characteristics in Urban Stream Basin Using Numerical Models)

  • 윤선권;문영일;김종석;최병화
    • 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국방재학회 2007년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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    • pp.599-602
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    • 2007
  • Flood damage has been increased due to abnormal climate and extreme rainfall. Especially, the increase of impervious areas and the decrease of flow travel times due to the urbanization have been caused heavy division of flood with the recent rainfall characteristics. In this study, hydrodynamics flow analysis has been needed two dimensional numerical analysis for correct stream flow interpretations on bridges as hydraulic structures in rivers. Therefore, comparative analysis has been accomplished by using HEC-RAS model and SMS-RMA2 model for one and two dimensional flow. Also, flood characteristics have been analyzed in urban stream basin.

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강원도 하천의 설계홍수량 산정에 관한 연구 (A Study on Evaluation of Desingn Floods Applicable to River in Kangwon Province)

  • 최한규;최석범;안종익;최용묵
    • 산업기술연구
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    • 제19권
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    • pp.369-377
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    • 1999
  • The determination of the design flood based on probabilistic concepts is one of the important matters of the general field of hydrology. Until now, Most of any existing formulas to predict the flood flow were estimated by very different values with each other when we applied these formulas to the small basin, in extreme case, which were estimated over top be 400% of a difference because these have been developed by foreigners or derived from the big basin. The objective of this thesis is to examine closely the characteristics of frequency flood flow for reliable prediction of the flood flow through the probabilistic method in hydrology and to develop the ($Q_T=27.74T^{0.178}A^{0.594}$) applicable to the river of Kangwon province.

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한강유역의 다목적댐 운영에 따른 빈도홍수량의 평가 (Assessment of Probability Flood according to the Flow Regulation by Multi-purpose Dams in Han-River Basin)

  • 김남원;이정은
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제42권2호
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    • pp.161-168
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    • 2009
  • 본 연구에서는 팔당댐 지점을 중심으로 상류에 위치하고 있는 소양강, 충주 다목적댐 운영에 따른 빈도홍수량의 거동변화를 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 연구하기 위해서는 동일기간의 댐운영 여부에 따른 두 계열(조절유량, 비조절 유량)의 홍수량 자료를 합리적으로 획득하는 것이 무엇보다 중요하다. 홍수량 산정을 위해서는 단기 강우-유출모형을 이용해야 하지만, 계산의 어려움과 유역의 비선형으로 인해 그 결과를 증명하기 매우 어려운 현실이다. 따라서 상대적으로 유역면적이 클수록 일유량과 홍수량의 관계가 비교적 일정한 경향을 보인다는 점에 착안하여, 장기유출모형인 SWAT-K를 이용하여 댐운영 여부에 따른 두 계열의 일유량을 모의하였다. 일유량과 홍수량의 상관관계로 모의된 일유량을 홍수량으로 유도한 후, 댐운영 여부에 따른 빈도홍수량의 변화특성을 파악하였다. 홍수빈도분석을 위해 사용된 분포는 Extreme Type-I이며, 매개변수 추정은 L-moment 방법을 이용하였다. 연구결과에 따르면, 소양강, 충주 두 다목적댐 운영이 이루어지지 않은 상황에 대한 팔당댐 지점에서의 100년 빈도홍수량에 비하여, 소양강댐, 충주댐, 소양강과 충주댐의 운영유무에 따른 3가지 시나리오에 대한 빈도홍수량은 각각 91, 83, 71 % 규모로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 유역면적이 상대적으로 넓은 유역에서 댐운영 여부에 따른 빈도홍수량의 변화를 파악할 수 있는 새로운 시도였다. 이는 일유량 자료의 이용 및 분석에 있어 이수적인 측면뿐만 아니라 치수적인 측면에서의 활용성을 높일 것으로 판단된다.

Development of flood hazard and risk maps in Bosnia and Herzegovina, key study of the Zujevina River

  • Emina, Hadzic;Giuseppe Tito, Aronica;Hata, Milisic;Suvada, Suvalija;Slobodanka, Kljucanin;Ammar, Saric;Suada, Sulejmanovic;Fehad, Mujic
    • Coupled systems mechanics
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    • 제11권6호
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    • pp.505-524
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    • 2022
  • Floods represent extreme hydrological phenomena that affect populations, environment, social, political, and ecological systems. After the catastrophic floods that have hit Europe and the World in recent decades, the flood problem has become more current. At the EU level, a legal framework has been put in place with the entry into force of Directive 2007/60/EC on Flood Risk Assessment and Management (Flood Directive). Two years after the entry into force of the Floods Directive, Bosnia and Herzegovina (B&H), has adopted a Regulation on the types and content of water protection plans, which takes key steps and activities under the Floods Directive. The "Methodology for developing flood hazard and risk maps" (Methodology) was developed for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina, following the methodology used in the majority of EU member states, but with certain modifications to the country's characteristics. Accordingly, activities for the preparation of the Preliminary Flood Risk Assessment for each river basin district were completed in 2015 for the territory of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Activities on the production of hazard maps and flood risk maps are in progress. The results of probable climate change impact model forecasts should be included in the preparation of the Flood Risk Management Plans, which is the subsequent phase of implementing the Flood Directive. By the foregoing, the paper will give an example of the development of the hydrodynamic model of the Zujevina River, as well as the development of hazard and risk maps. Hazard and risk maps have been prepared for medium probability floods of 1/100 as well as for high probability floods of 1/20. The results of LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) recording were used to create a digital terrain model (DMR). It was noticed that there are big differences between the flood maps obtained by recording LiDAR techniques in relation to the previous flood maps obtained using georeferenced topographic maps. Particular attention is given to explaining the Methodology applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

분위사상법을 적용한 RCP 시나리오 기반 시군별 홍수 위험도 평가 (Flood Risk Assessment Based on Bias-Corrected RCP Scenarios with Quantile Mapping at a Si-Gun Level)

  • 박지훈;강문성;송인홍
    • 한국농공학회논문집
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    • 제55권4호
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2013
  • The main objective of this study was to evaluate Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios-based flood risk at a Si-Gun level. A bias correction using a quantile mapping method with the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was performed to correct future precipitation data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). A series of proxy variables including CN80 (Number of days over 80 mm) and CX3h (Maximum precipitation during 3-hr) etc. were used to carry out flood risk assessment. Indicators were normalized by a Z-score method and weighted by factors estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). Flood risk evaluation was conducted for the four different time periods, i.e. 1990s, 2025s, 2055s, and 2085s, which correspond to 1976~2005, 2011~2040, 2041~2070, and 2071~2100. The average flood risk indices based on RCP4.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.16, 0.22, and 0.13 for the corresponding periods in the order of time, which increased steadily up to 2055s period and decreased. The average indices based on RCP8.5 scenario were 0.08, 0.23, 0.11, and 0.21, which decreased in the 2055s period and then increased again. Considering the average index during entire period of the future, RCP8.5 scenario resulted in greater risk than RCP4.5 scenario.

Future flood frequency analysis from the heterogeneous impacts of Tropical Cyclone and non-Tropical Cyclone rainfalls in the Nam River Basin, South Korea

  • Alcantara, Angelika;Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.139-139
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    • 2021
  • Flooding events often result from extreme precipitations driven by various climate mechanisms, which are often disregarded in flood risk assessments. To bridge this gap, we propose a climate-mechanism-based flood frequency analysis that accommodates the direct linkage between the dominant climate processes and risk management decisions. Several statistical methods have been utilized in this approach including the Markov Chain analysis, K-nearest neighbor (KNN) resampling approach, and Z-score-based jittering method. After that, the impacts of climate change are associated with the modification of the transition matrix (TM) and the application of the quantile mapping approach. For this study, we have selected the Nam River Basin, South Korea, to consider the heterogeneous impacts of the two climate mechanisms, including the Tropical Cyclone (TC) and non-TCs. Based on our results, while both climate mechanisms have significant impacts on future flood extremes, TCs have been observed to bring more significant and immediate impacts on the flood extremes. The results in this study have proven that the proposed approach can lead to a new insights into future flooding management.

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Integrated Flood Risk Management through Modelling of Nature Based Solutions

  • Bastola, Shiksha;Kareem, Kola Yusuff;Park, Kiddo;Jung, Younghun
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2022년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.160-160
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    • 2022
  • Floods are the most common natural disasters and are annually causing severe destructions worldwide. Human activities, along with expected increased extreme precipitation patterns as a result of climate change enhance the future potential of floods. There are proven evidence that infrastructure based responses to flood disaster is no longer achieving optimum mitigation and have created a false sense of security. Nature-based solutions(NBS) is a widely accepted sustainable and efficient approach for disaster risk reduction and involves the protection, restoration, or management of natural and semi-natural ecosystems to tackle the climate and natural crisis. Adoption of NBS in decision-making, especially in developing nations is limited due to a lack of sufficient scenario-based studies, research, and technical knowledge. This study explores the knowledge gap and challenges on NBS adoption with case study of developing nation, specially for flood management, by the study of multiple scenario analysis in the context of climate, land-use change, and policies. Identification and quantification of the strength of natural ecosystems for flood resilience and water management can help to prioritize NBS in policymaking leading to sustainable measures for integrated flood management.

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지표격자해상도 및 우수관망 간소화 수준에 따른 도시홍수 예측 성능검토 (Performance Analysis of Grid Resolution and Storm Sewage Network for Urban Flood Forecasting)

  • 심상보;김형준
    • 한국안전학회지
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.70-81
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    • 2024
  • With heavy rainfall due to extreme weather causing increasing damage, the importance of urban flood forecasting continues to grow. To forecast urban flooding accurately and promptly, a sewer network and surface grid with appropriate detail are necessary. However, for urban areas with complex storm sewer networks and terrain structures, high-resolution grids and detailed networks can significantly prolong the analysis. Therefore, determining an appropriate level of network simplification and a suitable surface grid resolution is essential to secure the golden time for urban flood forecasting. In this study, InfoWorks ICM, a software program capable of 1D-2D coupled simulation, was used to examine urban flood forecasting performance for storm sewer networks with various levels of simplification and different surface grid resolutions. The inundation depth, inundation area, and simulation time were analyzed for each simplification level. Based on the analysis, the simulation time was reduced by up to 65% upon simplifying the storm sewer networks and by up to 96% depending on the surface grid resolution; further, the inundation area was overestimated as the grid resolution increased. This study provides insights into optimizing the simplification level and surface grid resolution for storm sewer networks to ensure efficient and accurate urban flood forecasting.

2차원 침수해석과 BIM 기술을 활용한 홍수재난 대피지도 작성 (Development of a Flood Disaster Evacuation Map Using Two-dimensional Flood Analysis and BIM Technology)

  • 정창삼
    • 한국방재안전학회논문집
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    • 제13권2호
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2020
  • 본 연구에서는 2차원 흐름 해석 모형인 Hydro_AS-2D 모형을 이용하여 해수면 상승과 극한 홍수 발생 시 창원시 성산구 및 의창구 일대의 침수피해 상황을 모의하고, 그 결과를 3차원 지형 상에 표출한 후 BIM 기술을 이용하여 최적 대피경로를 도출하였다. 기후변화는 홍수재해 측면에서 크게 두 가지 요소에 영향을 미치는데 해수면 상승과 극한 강우사상의 증가이다. 해수면 상승은 그 자체만으로 연안지역에 해수가 범람하여 침수현상을 유발하는 영향을 미칠 수 있을 뿐 아니라 하천의 기점 홍수위를 상승시켜 하천 전체에 걸쳐 홍수위 상승을 유발한다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 의한 해수위 상승과 태풍에 의한 폭풍해일에 의한 해수위 상승, 그리고 태풍에 의한 극한 강우사상을 모의조건으로 설정하였다. 창원시의 지형공간정보와 하천정비기본계획의 하천횡단 정보를 이용하여 유역전체의 3차원 공간정보로 구성하고 이를 수치모형화 하였다. 연구대상지역은 BIM 기술을 이용하여 3차원 지형정보 상에 건물의 층고, 대피소 위치 등의 정보를 가지고 있는 3차원 도시정보모델로 구축하였으며, 수치모의 결과를 이 모델 상에 표출하고 대피계획을 위한 분석에 사용하였다. 침수발생 시 대피경로는 시간에 따른 침수 범위의 변화에 따라 대피소로의 경로를 설정하는 알고리즘에 의해 결정되며, 설정된 경로는 직관적인 3차원 공간정보 상에 표출되어 사용자에게 제공된다.

재해연보 자료를 이용한 지역 단위 수해폐기물 발생량 예측 모형 개발: 울산광역시 사례 연구 (Development of Regional Flood Debris Estimation Model Utilizing Data of Disaster Annual Report: Case Study on Ulsan City)

  • 박만호;김호남;주문솔;김희종;김재영
    • 한국폐기물자원순환학회지
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    • 제35권8호
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    • pp.777-784
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    • 2018
  • Since climate change increases the risk of extreme rainfall events, concerns on flood management have also increased. In order to rapidly recover from flood damages and prevent secondary damages, fast collection and treatment of flood debris are necessary. Therefore, a quick and precise estimation of flood debris generation is a crucial procedure in disaster management. Despite the importance of debris estimation, methodologies have not been well established. Given the intrinsic heterogeneity of flood debris from local conditions, a regional-scale model can increase the accuracy of the estimation. The objectives of this study are 1) to identify significant damage variables to predict the flood debris generation, 2) to ascertain the difference in the coefficients, and 3) to evaluate the accuracy of the debris estimation model. The scope of this work is flood events in Ulsan city region during 2008-2016. According to the correlation test and multicollinearity test, the number of damaged buildings, area of damaged cropland, and length of damaged roads were derived as significant parameters. Key parameters seems to be strongly dependent on regional conditions and not only selected parameters but also coefficients in this study were different from those in previous studies. The debris estimation in this study has better accuracy than previous models in nationwide scale. It can be said that the development of a regional-scale flood debris estimation model will enhance the accuracy of the prediction.