• Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.321-329
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• 2012

In this study, statistical analysis under both stationary and non-stationary climate was conducted for rainfall data measured in Seoul. Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and Gumbel distribution were used for the analysis. Rainfall changes under the non-stationary climate were estimated by applying time variable (t) to location parameter (${\xi}$). Rainfall depths calculated in non-stationary climate increased by 1.1 to 6.2mm and 1.0 to 4.6mm for the GEV distribution and gumbel distribution respectively from those stationary forms. Changes in annual maximum rainfall were estimated with rate of change in the location parameter (${\xi}1{\cdot}t$), and temporal changes of return period were predicted. This was also available for re-evaluating the current sewer design return period. Design criteria of sewer system was newly suggested considering life expectance of the system as well as temporal changes in the return period.

• Atmosphere
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• v.33 no.5
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• pp.505-517
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• 2023

This study investigates the impacts of carbon neutrality and air quality control policies on near-term climate change in East Asia, by examining three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from five climate models. Specifically, low carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP1-1.9), high carbon and weak air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0), and high carbon and strong air quality control scenario (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) are compared. For these scenarios, the near-term climate (2045-2054 average) changes are evaluated for surface air temperature (SAT), hot temperature extreme intensity (TXx), and hot temperature extreme frequency (TX90p). In all three scenarios, SAT, TXx, and TX90p are projected to increase in East Asia, while carbon neutrality reduces the increasing rate of SAT and hot temperature extremes. Air quality control strengthens the warming rate. These opposed mitigation effects are robustly forced in all model simulations. Nonetheless, the impact of carbon neutrality overcomes the impact of air quality control. These results suggest that fast carbon neutrality, more effective than an air quality control policy, is necessary to slowdown future warming trend in East Asia.

• Atmosphere
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.17-25
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• 2022

As climate change due to global warming continues to be accelerated, various extreme events become more intense, more likely to occur and longer-lasting on a much larger scale. Recent studies show that global warming acts as the primary driver of extreme events and that heat-related extreme events should be attributed to anthropogenic global warming. Among them, both terrestrial and marine heat waves are great concerns for human beings as well as ecosystems. Taking place around the world, one of those events appeared over East Sea in July 2021 with record-breaking high temperature. Meanwhile, climate condition around East Sea was favorable for anomalous warming with less total cloud cover, more incoming solar radiation, and shorter period of Changma rainfall. According to the results of wave activity flux analysis, highly activated meridional mode of teleconnection that links western North Pacific to East Asia caused localized warming over East Sea to become stronger.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.58 no.1
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• pp.39-51
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• 2016

Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme flood exceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected by two main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should be considered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land use change scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floods of 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulation described that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changes in design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligible because the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.

• KIEAE Journal
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.13-19
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• 2012

The Earth's surface temperature still continues to rise, and extreme weather phenomena such as heat waves, drought, and precipitation have been repeated every year. It is reported that international communities attribute the main cause of the Earth's surface temperature rise to the excessive use of the fossil energy. Recently, the damage caused by climate change is getting worse, and the place where we live is suffering the most. Cities have been continuously growing not only meeting the basic functions of human habitation, work and leisure but also being places for various economic and social activities. But Cities, the victims of climate change, have grown only considering human needs and convenience rather than predicting their physical and ecological systems(Albedo effects, urban microclimate, resources and energy of the circulatory system, etc). In other words, the cities offer the cause of the problems of climate change, and even worsen the extreme weather phenomena without coping with them. Therefore, it is urgent priorities to protect the climate, to prevent the causes of the extreme weather phenomena and to enhance the adaptive capacity for the worse weather events. This study is to derive the concept for adapting to these climate changes which can make cities escape from exposure to these climate change impacts and make themselves safer places to live. And it analyzes some European cities and present developing models to implement planning methods. In this study, the concept of the climate adaptive cities will be suggested to prepare the adaptation measures for urban planners, and climate change adaptation models will be presented by analyzing some preliminary cases.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

There is a high confidence based on scientific evidence that climate is changing over time. Now climate change is considered as one of the challenges facing the construction industry. As no project is risk free and climate change has a strong impact on the different phases of the construction project lifecycle. This research aimed at providing a platform of knowledge for the construction management practitioners about the impacts of climate change on the construction projects lifecycle, identify the most dangerous climate change factors on the construction project lifecycle, and identify the most affected phase by climate change factors through the construction projects lifecycle. The study depended on the opinions of civil engineers who have worked in the construction projects field among the reality of Gaza Strip. Questionnaire tool was adopted as the main research methodology in order to achieve the desired objectives. The questionnaire included 127 factors in order to obtain responses from 88 construction practitioners out of 98 representing 89.79% response rate about the influence of climate change on the generic lifecycle of construction projects. The results deduced that the most significant influence on the construction project lifecycle was related to the extreme weather events, rainfall change, and temperature change respectively. There was a general agreement between the respondents that the most affected phase by temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events is the execution phase. The results also asserted with a high responses scale on the need to alternative procedures and clear strategies in order to face the climate change within construction industry.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.87-109
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• 2012

A substantial part of South Africa is subject to more than one strong wind source. The effect of that on extreme winds is that higher quantiles are usually estimated with a mixed strong wind climate estimation method, compared to the traditional Gumbel approach based on a single population. The differences in the estimated quantiles between the two methods depend on the values of the Gumbel distribution parameters for the different strong wind mechanisms involved. Cluster analysis of the distribution parameters provides a characterization of the effect of the relative differences in their values, and therefore the dominance of the different strong wind mechanisms. For gusts, cold fronts tend to dominate over the coastal and high-lying areas, while other mechanisms, especially thunderstorms, are dominant over the lower-lying areas in the interior. For the hourly mean wind speeds cold fronts are dominant in the south-west, south and east of the country. On the West Coast the ridging of the Atlantic Ocean high-pressure system dominate in the south, while the presence of a deep trough or coastal low pressure system is the main strong wind mechanism in the north. In the central interior cold fronts tend to share their influence almost equally with other synoptic-scale mechanisms.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.21-27
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• 2015

Recent researches show that climate change has impact on the rainfall process at different temporal and spatial scales. The present paper is focused on climate change impact on sub-daily rainfall quantile of Han River basin in South Korea. Climate change simulation outputs from ECHO-G GCM under the A2 scenario were used to estimate daily extreme rainfall. Sub-daily extreme rainfall was estimated using the scale invariance concept. In order to assess sub-daily extreme rainfall from climate change simulation outputs, precipitation time series were generated based on NSRPM (Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulse Model) and modified using the ratio of rainfall over projection periods to historical one. Sub-daily extreme rainfall was then estimated from those series. It was found that sub-daily extreme rainfall in the future displayed increasing or decreasing trends for estimation methods and different periods.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.458-458
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• 2012

Climate extreme variability is a major cause of disaster such as flood and drought types occurred in Korea and its effects is also more severe damage in last decades which can be danger mature events in the future. The main aim of this study was to assess the effectives of climate change on drought for an agriculture as Nakdong basin in Korea using climate change data in the future from data of General Circulation Models (GCM) of ECHO-G, with the developing countries like Korea, the developed climate scenario of medium-high greenhouse gas emission was proposed of the SRES A2. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied for drought evaluation. The drought index (SPI) applied for sites in catchment and it is evaluated accordingly by current and future precipitation data, specific as determined for data from nine precipitation stations with data covering the period 1980-2009 for current and three periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 for future; time scales of 3month were used for evaluating. The results determined drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. The drought in catchment act intensively occurred in March, April, May and November and months of drought extreme often appeared annual in May and November; drought frequent is a non-uniform cyclic pattern in an irregular repetitive manner, but results showed drought intensity increasing in future periods. The results indicated also spatial point of view, the SPI analysis showed two of drought extents; local drought acting on one or more one of sites and entire drought as cover all of site in catchment. In addition, the meteorology drought simulation maps of spatial drought representation were carried out with GIS software to generate for some drought extreme years in study area. The method applied in this study are expected to be appropriately applicable to the evaluation of the effects of extreme hydrologic events, the results also provide useful for the drought warning and sustainable water resources management strategies and policy in agriculture basins.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.44 no.4
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• pp.255-263
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• 2023

Western coastal area of Chungnam, including Cheonsu Bay and Garorim Bay, has suffered from hot and cold extremes. In this study, the extreme sea surface temperature on the western coast of Chungnam was analyzed using the quantile regression method, which extracts the linear regression values in all quantiles. The regional MOHID (MOdelo HIDrodinâmico) model, with a high resolution on a 1/60° grid, was constructed to reproduce the extreme sea surface temperature. For future prediction, the SSP5-8.5 scenario data of the CMIP6 model were used to simulate sea surface temperature variability. Results showed that the extreme sea surface temperature of Cheonsu Bay in August 2017 was successfully simulated, and this extreme sea surface temperature had a significant negative correlation with the Pacific decadal variability index. As a result of future climate prediction, it was found that an average of 2.9℃ increased during the simulation period of 86 years in the Chungnam west coast and there was a seasonal difference (3.2℃ in summer, 2.4℃ in winter). These seasonal differences indicate an increase in the annual temperature range, suggesting that extreme events may occur more frequently in the future.