• Atmosphere
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.257-271
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• 2024

In 2023, the World Meteorological Organization released a report on climate conditions in Asia, highlighting the region's high vulnerability to floods and the increasing severity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. While previous studies have largely concentrated on broader-scale phenomena such as the Asian monsoon, it is crucial to investigate the substantial characteristics of extreme precipitation for a better understanding. In this study, we analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation during summer and their affecting factors by decomposing the moisture budgets within specific Asian regions over 44 years (1979~2022). Our findings indicate that dynamic convergence terms (DY CON), which reflect changes in wind patterns, primarily drive extreme rainfall across much of Asia. In southern Asian sub-regions, particularly coastal areas, extreme precipitation is primarily driven by low-pressure systems, with DY CON accounting for 70% of the variance. However, in eastern Asia, both thermodynamic advection and nonlinear convergence terms significantly contribute to extreme precipitation. Notably, on the Korean Peninsula, thermodynamic advection plays an important role, driven by substantial moisture carried by strong southerly mean flow. Understanding these distinct characteristics of extreme rainfall across sub-regions is expected to enhance both predictability and resilience.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2017.05a
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• pp.228-232
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• 2017

Extreme hydrological events can cause serious threats to the society. Hence, the selection of probability distributions for extreme rainfall is a fundamental issue. For this reason, this study was focused on understanding possible distributional changes in annual daily maximum rainfalls (AMRs) over time in Sri Lanka using quantile regression. A simplified nine-category distributional-change scheme based on comparing empirical probability density function of two years (i.e. the first year and the last year), was used to determine the distributional changes in AMRs. Daily rainfall series of 13 station over Sri Lanka were analyzed for the period of 1960-2015. 4 distributional change categories were identified for the AMRs. 5 stations showed an upward trend in all the quantiles (i.e. 9 quantiles: from 0.05 to 0.95 with an increment of 0.01 for the AMR) which could give high probability of extreme rainfall. On the other hand, 8 stations showed a downward trend in all the quantiles which could lead to high probability of the low rainfall. Further, we identified a considerable spatial diversity in distributional changes of AMRs over Sri Lanka.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.24 no.5
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• pp.1101-1101
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• 2013

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.31 no.6B
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• pp.531-539
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• 2011

It has been widely acknowledged that climate system associated with extreme rainfall events was difficult to understand and extreme rainfall simulation in climate model was more difficult. This study developed a new model for extracting rainfall filed associated with extreme events as a way to characterize large scale climate system. Main interests are to derive location, size and direction of the rainfall field and this study developed an algorithm to extract the above characteristics from global climate data set. This study mainly utilized specific humidity and wind vectors driven by NCEP reanalysis data to define the rainfall field. Geometric first and second moments have been extensively employed in defining the rainfall field in selected zone, and an ellipsoid based model were finally introduced. The proposed geometric moments based ellipsoid model works equally well with regularly and irregularly distributed synthetic grid data. Finally, the proposed model was applied to space-time real rainfall filed. It was found that location, size and direction of the rainfall field was successfully extracted.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.29 no.1B
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• pp.23-33
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• 2009

Climate change, abnormal weather, and unprecedented extreme weather events have appeared globally. Interest in their size, frequency, and changes in spatial distribution has been heightened. However, the events do not display regional or regular patterns or cycles. Therefore, it is difficult to carry out quantified evaluation of their frequency and tendency. For more objective evaluation of extreme weather events, this study proposed a rainfall extreme weather index (STARDEX, 2005). To compare the present and future spatio-temporal distribution of extreme weather events, each index was calculated from the past data collected from 66 observation points nationwide operated by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA). Tendencies up to now have been analyzed. Then, using SRES B2 scenario and 2045s (2031-2050) data from YONU CGCM simulation were used to compute differences among each of future extreme weather event indices and their tendencies were spatially expressed.The results shows increased rainfall tendency in the East-West inland direction during the summer. In autumn, rainfall tendency increased in some parts of Gangwon-do and the south coast. In the meanwhile, the analysis of the duration of prolonged dry period, which can be contrasted with the occurrence of rainfall or its concentration, showed that the dryness tendency was more pronounced in autumn rather than summer. Geographically, the tendency was more remarkable in Jeju-do and areas near coastal areas.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.36 no.5
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• pp.791-803
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• 2016

Recently, frequency of extreme rainfall events in South Korea has been substantially increased due to the enhanced climate variability. Korea is prone to flooding due to being surrounded by mountains, along with high rainfall intensity during a short period. In the past three decades, an increase in the frequency of heavy rainfall events has been observed due to enhanced climate variability and climate change. This study aimed to analyze extreme rainfalls informed by their frequency of occurrences using a long-term rainfall data. In this respect, we developed a Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution (Poisson-GPD) based rainfall frequency method which allows us to simultaneously explore changes in the amount and exceedance probability of the extreme rainfall events defined by different thresholds. Additionally, this study utilized a Bayesian approach to better estimate both parameters and their uncertainties. We also investigated the synoptic patterns associated with the extreme events considered in this study. The results showed that the Poisson-GPD based design rainfalls were rather larger than those of based on the Gumbel distribution. It seems that the Poisson-GPD model offers a more reasonable explanation in the context of flood safety issue, by explicitly considering the changes in the frequency. Also, this study confirmed that low and high pressure system in the East China Sea and the central North Pacific, respectively, plays crucial roles in the development of the extreme rainfall in South Korea.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.45 no.3
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• pp.263-274
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• 2012

Recently, due to various climate variabilities, extreme rainfall events have been occurring all over the world. Extreme rainfall events in Korea mainly result from the summer typhoon storms and the localized convective storms. In order to estimate appropriate quantiles for extreme rainfall, this study considered the probability behavior of daily rainfall from the typhoons and the convective storms which compose the annual maximum rainfalls (AMRs). The conventional rainfall frequency analysis estimates rainfall quantiles based on the assumption that the AMRs are extracted from an identified single population, whereas this study employed a mixed distribution function to incorporate the different statistical characteristics of two types of rainfalls into the hydrologic frequency analysis. Selecting 15 rainfall gauge stations where contain comparatively large number of measurements of daily rainfall, for various return periods, quantiles of daily rainfalls were estimated and analyzed in this study. The results indicate that the mixed Gumbel distribution locally results in significant gains and losses in quantiles. This would provide useful information in designing flood protection systems.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers Conference
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• 2005.10a
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• pp.284-287
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• 2005

The objective of this study is to check into variation trends of design rainfall according to change of the number of years for observed data. To make comparative study of the relation between design rainfall and recorded year, this study was used maximum rainfall for 24-hr consecutive duration at Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Chupungnyeong, Pohang, Daegu, Jeonju, Ulsan, Gwangju, Busan, Mokpo and Yeosu rainfall stations. The tests for Independence, Homogeneity and detection of outliers were used Wald-Wolfowitz's test, Mann-Whitney's test and Grubbs and Beck test respectively. To select appopriate distribution, the distribution of genaralized pareto(GPA), generalized extreme value(GEV), generalized logistic(GLO), lognormal and pearson type 3 distribution is judged by L-moment ratio diagram and Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test. Design rainfall was estimated by at-site frequency analysis using L-moments and Generalized extreme value(GEV) distribution according to change of the number of years for observed data. Through the comparative analysis for design rainfall induced by L-moments and GEV distribution, relationship between design rainfall and recorded year is provided.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.28 no.5B
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• pp.459-473
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• 2008

This study investigated typhoon characteristics that provoke precipitation which is much attacking periodically in our country, and calculated probability precipitation of extreme rainfalls using Empirical Simulation Technique. The typhoon influenced in Korea was happened 3.18 times per, and year exposed to affect Korea during 107 hours. The depth of precipitation with the typhoon was different according to observation points. The extreme precipitation of typhoon events has analyzed by change and trend analyses. In the results, mean and standard deviation of extreme rainfall has been increasing than the past events in some areas. Also, About 143 typhoons influenced Korea was applied in EST techniques using center position, central pressure, time precipitation data using rainfall observatory in Korea. Therefore, we applied EST techniques and calculated probability precipitation. In the results, Jeonla-do, Gyeongsang-do and Gangwon-do will have heavy rain with typhoon events in high probability.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.33 no.2
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• pp.160-169
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• 2017

The objective of this study are to analyze changes in future rainfall patterns in the Soyang-dam watershed according to the RCP 4.5 scenario of climate change. Second objective is to project peak flow and hourly sediment simulated for the future extreme rainfall events using the SWAT model. For these, accuracy of SWAT hourly simulation for the large scale watershed was evaluated in advance. The results of model calibration showed that simulated peak flow matched observation well with acceptable average relative error. The results of future rainfall pattern changes analysis indicated that extreme storm events will become more severe and frequent as climate change progresses. Especially, possibility of occurrence of large scale extreme storm events will be greater on the periods of 2030-2040 and 2050-2060. In addition, as shown in the SWAT hourly simulation for the future extreme storm events, more severe flood and turbid water can happen in the future compared with the most devastating storm event which occurred by the typhoon Ewiniar in 2006 year. Thus, countermeasures against future extreme storm event and turbid water are needed to cope with climate change.