• 물과 미래
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• 제45권3호
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• pp.59-63
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• 2012

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.314-314
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• 2023

Extreme climate events can have a large impact on human life by hampering social, environmental, and economic development. Global circulation models (GCMs) are the widely used numerical models to understand the anticipated future climate change. However, different GCMs can project different future climates due to structural differences, varying initial boundary conditions and assumptions about the physical phenomena. The multi-model ensemble (MME) approach can improve the uncertainties associated with the different GCM outcomes. In this study, a comprehensive rating metric was used to select the best-performing GCMs out of 11 CMIP5 and 13 CMIP6 GCMs, according to their skills in terms of four temporal and five spatial performance indices, in replicating the 21 extreme climate indices during the baseline (1975-2017) in South Korea. The MME data were derived by averaging the simulations from all selected GCMs and three top-ranked GCMs. The random forest (RF) algorithm was also used to derive the MME data from the three top-ranked GCMs. The RF-derived MME data of the three top-ranked GCMs showed the highest performance in simulating the baseline extreme climate which was subsequently used to project the future extreme climate indices under both the representative concentration pathway (RCP) and the socioeconomic concentration pathway scenarios (SSP). The extreme cold and warming indices had declining and increasing trends, respectively, and most extreme precipitation indices had increasing trends over the period 2031-2100. Compared to all scenarios, RCP8.5 showed drastic changes in future extreme climate indices. The coasts in the east, south and west had stronger warming than the rest of the country, while mountain areas in the north experienced more extreme cold. While extreme cold climatology gradually declined from north to south, extreme warming climatology continuously grew from coastal to inland and northern mountainous regions. The results showed that the socially, environmentally and agriculturally important regions of South Korea were at increased risk of facing the detrimental impacts of extreme climatology.

• Journal of Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.1-10
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• 2015

There is a high confidence based on scientific evidence that climate is changing over time. Now climate change is considered as one of the challenges facing the construction industry. As no project is risk free and climate change has a strong impact on the different phases of the construction project lifecycle. This research aimed at providing a platform of knowledge for the construction management practitioners about the impacts of climate change on the construction projects lifecycle, identify the most dangerous climate change factors on the construction project lifecycle, and identify the most affected phase by climate change factors through the construction projects lifecycle. The study depended on the opinions of civil engineers who have worked in the construction projects field among the reality of Gaza Strip. Questionnaire tool was adopted as the main research methodology in order to achieve the desired objectives. The questionnaire included 127 factors in order to obtain responses from 88 construction practitioners out of 98 representing 89.79% response rate about the influence of climate change on the generic lifecycle of construction projects. The results deduced that the most significant influence on the construction project lifecycle was related to the extreme weather events, rainfall change, and temperature change respectively. There was a general agreement between the respondents that the most affected phase by temperature, rainfall, and extreme weather events is the execution phase. The results also asserted with a high responses scale on the need to alternative procedures and clear strategies in order to face the climate change within construction industry.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제30권6B호
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• pp.561-569
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• 2010

본 연구에서는 현재 및 미래 기후에서의 가뭄심도-영향면적-지속기간 곡선의 비교를 통하여 극한 가뭄 사상에 대한 기후변화의 영향을 살펴보았다. 가뭄심도-영향면적-지속기간 곡선은 극한 호우사상을 특성화하기 위한 일반적으로 적용되는 우량깊이-영향면적-지속기간 곡선에서 우량깊이를 가뭄심도를 대표할 수 있는 적절한 지수로 대체함으로써 가뭄사상을 분석할 수 있는 도구를 제공한다. 미래 월 강수량 시계열은 $27km{\times}27km$의 공간적인 해상도를 가지는 기상청 지역기후모형으로부터 획득되었으며, 가뭄심도는 표준강수지수를 이용하여 산출하였다. 분석 결과, 농업가뭄에 대한 위험성은 특히 단기간의 지속기간의 경우에 현재보다 심화될 수 있는 것으로 분석되었으며, 수문학적 가뭄의 경우는 가뭄지속기간에 상관없이 모두 현재보다는 미래에 가뭄심도가 더 깊어질 가능성이 있는 것으로 예측되었다. 이에 따라 현재의 수자원 공급 시스템에 대한 기후변화 취약성 평가가 시급함을 제시하고 있다.

• 한국방재학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국방재학회 2008년도 정기총회 및 학술발표대회
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• pp.497-500
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• 2008

The typhoon is provoking huge damage attacking in Korea periodically every year. Therefore, in this study, the analysis of 24 hourly maximum precipitation change related to typhoon events achieved based on Mann-Whitney U test, T test, Modified T test, Sign test, F test, and Modified F test. At the results, the 24 hourly maximum precipitation was expose that average and standard deviation are increasing recently. Therefore, hydorlogical structures have to be prepared of extreme rainfall events by typhoons.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권4호
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• pp.65-74
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• 2017

North Korea is one of the high vulnerable countries facing the threat of natural disaster and has experienced more frequent disasters in recent years. These disasters have significantly led to food shortages and large reductions in crop yields. In 2015, both North Korean officials and international agencies had identified the extreme drought event, the worst in one hundred years according to the North Korean government. The objective of this study was an assessment of the extreme drought events in 2014~2015, and to apply climatic drought indices for drought monitoring in North Korea. Characteristics of the extreme drought in North Korea are examined by using the weekly-based Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The drought characteristics illustrated by the SPEI results are compared with a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) results and drought impact information to understand how these indices can explain the drought conditions within the country. These results demonstrated that the SPEI could be an effective tool to provide improved spatial and temporal drought conditions to inform management decisions for drought policy.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2012년도 학술발표회
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• pp.458-458
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• 2012

Climate extreme variability is a major cause of disaster such as flood and drought types occurred in Korea and its effects is also more severe damage in last decades which can be danger mature events in the future. The main aim of this study was to assess the effectives of climate change on drought for an agriculture as Nakdong basin in Korea using climate change data in the future from data of General Circulation Models (GCM) of ECHO-G, with the developing countries like Korea, the developed climate scenario of medium-high greenhouse gas emission was proposed of the SRES A2. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied for drought evaluation. The drought index (SPI) applied for sites in catchment and it is evaluated accordingly by current and future precipitation data, specific as determined for data from nine precipitation stations with data covering the period 1980-2009 for current and three periods 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 for future; time scales of 3month were used for evaluating. The results determined drought duration, magnitude and spatial extent. The drought in catchment act intensively occurred in March, April, May and November and months of drought extreme often appeared annual in May and November; drought frequent is a non-uniform cyclic pattern in an irregular repetitive manner, but results showed drought intensity increasing in future periods. The results indicated also spatial point of view, the SPI analysis showed two of drought extents; local drought acting on one or more one of sites and entire drought as cover all of site in catchment. In addition, the meteorology drought simulation maps of spatial drought representation were carried out with GIS software to generate for some drought extreme years in study area. The method applied in this study are expected to be appropriately applicable to the evaluation of the effects of extreme hydrologic events, the results also provide useful for the drought warning and sustainable water resources management strategies and policy in agriculture basins.

• International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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• 제5권2호
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• pp.179-187
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• 2013

Floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facilities are used at most of the offshore oil fields worldwide. FPSO usage is expected to grow as oil fields move to deeper water, thus requiring the reliability and stability of mooring wires and risers in extreme environmental conditions. Except for the case of predictable attack angles of external loadings, FPSO facilities with turret single point mooring (SPM) systems are in general use. There are two types of turret systems: permanent systems and disconnectable turret mooring systems. Extreme environment criteria for permanent moorings are usually based on a 100-year return period event. It is common to use two or three environments including the 100-year wave with associated wind and current, and the 100-year wind with associated waves and current. When fitted with a disconnectable turret mooring system, FPSOs can be used in areas where it is desirable to remove the production unit from the field temporarily to prevent exposure to extreme events such as cyclones or large icebergs. Static and dynamic mooring analyses were performed to evaluate the stability of a spider buoy after disconnection from a turret during cyclone environmental conditions.

• 대한지리학회지
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• 제46권3호
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• pp.257-276
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• 2011

이 연구에서는 극한기온 지수의 변화 경향을 분석하여 도시화 효과가 극한기온의 변화에 미치는 영향을 규명하고자 하였다. 한국에서 60개 기상관측지점을 대상으로 극한기온과 관련된 16개의 지수를 분석하였다. 여름철 관련 극한기온 지수값은 대부분 증가하였고, 겨울철 관련 극한기온 지수값은 감소하였다. 여름철 지수 중 변동 임계치를 갖는 지수가 열대야와 같은 고정 임계치를 갖는 경우보다 증가 경향이 더 뚜렷하였다. 겨울철과 관련된 극한기온 지수값의 감소 경향이 여름철과 관련된 극한기온 지수의 증가 경향보다 뚜렷하였다. 이는 도시의 기온이 여름철보다 겨울철에 더 상승하는 것과 비슷한 결과이다. 일최고기온과 관련된 지수의 증가 경향보다 일최저기온과 관련된 지수의 감소 경향이 뚜렷하다. 이런 결과도 도시에서 최고기온보다 최저기온의 상승 경향이 더 뚜렷한 것과 비슷한 경향이다.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.164-170
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• 2020

기상조건은 농업에 영향을 미치는 주요 환경요인이며, 특히 이상기상의 발생은 작물의 성장 및 작황에 큰 영향을 미친다. 그러므로 이상기상으로 인한 농업적 피해를 줄이기 위해 관측을 바탕으로 한 이상기상의 발생 빈도 분석 및 통계자료가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 30m 및 270m 해상도의 고해상도 소기후 모형을 통해 상세화된 3종의 주요 기상변수(기온, 강수, 일사량)를 이용해, 남한의 167개 시·군의 1981년부터 2019년 동안 발생한 이상기상 발생에 대한 통계자료를 소개하였다. 소기후 모형을 통해 추정된 167개 시·군 이상기상 현상 발생 특징은 기상청의 종관 기상 관측자료와 비교해 보았을 때 전국적인 분포 및 변화 경향을 잘 반영하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 기상청 종관 기상 관측 시스템에서 관측하지 못하는 지역의 기상까지 반영한 고해상도의 자료를 활용하였으므로 해당 시·군의 이상기상을 더욱 현실적으로 나타내었다. 본 연구에서 소개하는 시·군별 이상기상 통계자료는 농업 부문의 기상재해 취약성 평가 및 피해 저감을 위한 정책 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 생각된다.