• Title/Summary/Keyword: External Shocks

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An Empirical Analysis of KOSPI Volatility Using GARCH-ARJI Model (GARCH-ARJI 모형을 할용한 KOSPI 수익률의 변동성에 관한 실증분석)

  • Kim, Woo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.71-81
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we systematically analyzed the variation of KOSPI returns using a GARCH-ARJI(auto regressive jump intensity) model. This model is possibly to capture time varying volatility as well as time varying conditional jump intensity. Thus, we can decompose return volatility into usual variation explained by the GARCH model and unusual variation that resulted from external news or shocks. We found that the jump intensity implied on KOSPI return series clearly shows time varying. We also found that conditional volatility due to jump is generally smaller than that resulted from usual variation. We also analyzed the effect of 9.11 and the 2008 financial crisis on the volatility of KOSPI returns and conclude that there is strong and persistent impact on the KOSPI from the 2008 financial crisis.

Simulation and Design of High-Speed Hydraulic Velocity Generator in Shock Test Machine (충격시험장치 고속유압 속도발생기 해석 및 설계)

  • Kim, Tae Hyeong;Shul, Chang Won;Kim, Yoon Jae;Yang, Myung Seog;Lee, Gyu Sub
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.663-668
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    • 2014
  • Mechanical and electrical devices in various forms are used in many different fields. These can be exposed to external environmental factors such as shock. Therefore, a shock test machine is commonly used to test these devices and evaluate their shock resistance. In this test, the break-down or permanent deformation and malfunction of inner parts due to a high stress or acceleration can be evaluated. As part of a shock test machine, a velocity generator is needed to create shocks between objects. In this study, a hydraulic velocity generator was conceptually designed and an AMESim model was developed to simulate the velocity under different conditions. Simulation results using this model were compared with the test results from a reduced-size velocity generator, and we designed a velocity generator that fits the target payload and velocity using the simulation results.

An Empirical Study on Mutual Influence between Economic Index and Distribution Industry in Korean (한국 유통산업이 한국 경제에 미치는 상호영향력에 관한 실증적 연구)

  • YIM, Byung-Jin
    • The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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    • v.10 no.9
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2019
  • Purpose - The objective of this paper is to discover if there exists a relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Because of the distribution industry boom in the recent years, a lot of interest in the relationship between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean and the economy has been generated. This article examine on the mutual influence between economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Research design, data, and methodology - For this purpose, we use the vector-auto regression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition of the economic index and distribution industry index, Granger causality test using weekly data on the economic index and distribution industry price index in korea. The sample period is covering from January 2, 2010 to August 31, 2019. The VAR model can also be linked to cointegration analysis. Cointegration Analysis makes possible to find a mechanism causing x and y to move around a long-run equilibrium (Engle and Granger, 1987). This equilibrium means that external shocks may separate the series temporarily at any particular time, but there will be an overall tendency towards some type of long-run equilibrium. If variables are found to have this tendency they are said to be cointegrated and a long-run relationship between these series is established. These econometric tools have been applied widely into economics and business areas to analyze intertemporal linkages between different time series. Results - This research showed following main results. First, from the basic statistic analysis of the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean, the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea have unit roots. Second, there is at least one cointegration between the economic index and distribution industry index in Korean. Finally, the correlation between of the economic index and the distribution industry index in korea is (+) 0.528876. Conclusions - We find that the distribution industry price index Granger cause the economic index in korea. As a consequence, the distribution industry index affect the economic index in Korean. The distribution industry index to the economic index is stronger than that from the economic index to the distribution industry index.

Bivariate reliability models with multiple dynamic competing risks (다중 동적 Competing Risks 모형을 갖는 이변량 신뢰성 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Juyoung;Cha, Ji Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.711-724
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    • 2016
  • Under variable complex operating environment, various factors can affect the lifetimes of systems. In this research, we study bivariate reliability models having multiple dynamic competing risks. As competing risks, in addition to the natural failure, we consider the increased stress caused by the failure of one component, external shocks, and the level of stress of the working environment at the same time. Considering two reliability models which take into account all of these competing risks, we derive bivariate life distributions. Furthermore, we compare these two models and also compare the distributions of maximum and minimum statistics in the two models.

On the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Korea during 1979~2000 (우리나라 재정정책의 유효성에 관한 연구)

  • Hur, Seok-Kyun
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.29 no.2
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    • pp.1-40
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    • 2007
  • This paper mainly estimates a trajectory of GDP induced by variations in fiscal expenditure and taxation policy using three variable structural VAR models. By assigning different combinations of identifying restrictions on the disturbances and measuring the corresponding fiscal multipliers, we compare how robust the estimated values of fiscal multipliers are with respect to the restrictions. Then, considering the dependency of Korean economy on the foreign sector, we extend the three variable SVARs to four variable ones by adding a variable reflecting external shocks. Empirical analyses into the Korean quarterly data (from 1979 to 2000) with the three variable SVARs reveal that the size and the significance of the estimated fiscal multipliers in Korea are very small and low or they decay very fast. Results from the four variable SVARs confirm these results while the significance of the effectiveness of fiscal policy is enhanced in some cases.

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Statistical testings for common stochastic trends in markets under recession (경기 침체기 시장의 공통확률추세 검정)

  • Cho, Joong-Jae;Lee, Seung-Eun;Kim, Tae-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.559-569
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    • 2016
  • A long-run relationship of stock, monetary, realty markets, and business conditions has been suggested to exist due to internal and external shocks. This study investigates whether such a relationship really exists and then performs statistical tests to discern features of the long-run adjustment processes from short-run discrepancies because it is difficult to find studies that examine the market relationship. The comovement relationship of the whole market does not appear to hold for the entire study period; however, it is found to exist for the period before the financial crisis. Estimated error correction models show consistently declining equilibrium errors each period that suggests a recovering process of the long-run equilibrium from short-run secessions.

Implementation of IoT System for Wireless Acquisition of Vibration and Environmental Data in Distributing Board (제진형 배전반의 진동 및 환경 데이터수집을 위한 IoT 시스템 구현)

  • Lee, Byeong-Yeong;Lee, Young-Dong
    • Journal of the Institute of Convergence Signal Processing
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.199-205
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    • 2021
  • The distributing board in directly installed on the ground or the bottom surface of the building, and when vibrations such as earthquakes or external shocks occur, the possibility of damage or malfunction of electric components such as internal power devices, wiring, and protection relays increases. Recently, the need for a seismic type distributing board is increasing, and research and development of a distributing board having a vibration damping function and product launch are being conducted. In this paper, an IoT-based data collection device system capable of measuring vibration and environmental data of distributing board was designed and implemented. When vibration occurred on the distributing board, data was stored and visualized in the MySQL DB through Node-RED for monitoring and data storage using the MQTT protocol for reliable messaging transmission. The test was conducted by attaching the IoT device of the distributing board, and data was collected in real-time and monitored through Node-RED.

A Study on the Effect of Career Shock Experienced in the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Level of Subjective Career Success Perception. (코로나19 팬데믹 상황에서 경험한 커리어쇼크가 주관적 경력 성공 인식 수준에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구)

  • Jin Kim;Jong Seok Cha;Na Jung Kim
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.85-100
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - The purpose of this study is to identify the factors of shocking events in the career aspect experienced by Korean workers in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic, and to find out whether these career shocks affect individual perceptions of the importance of subjective career success. Design/methodology/approach - In the survey of 146 respondents, the career shock events experienced in the context of the Covid-19 pandemic were largely divided into three categories; 'work change', 'employment anxiety', and 'life anxiety'. For the subjective career success, seven dimensions - 'financial security', 'financial achievement', 'entrepreneurship', 'positive relationship', 'positive impact', 'learning and development', 'work-life balance' - were used. Findings - As a result, there was no difference in the perception of subjective career success due to the experience of 'work change' during the Covid-19 period. However, the respondents who experienced 'employment anxiety' came to recognize that 'financial security' and 'financial achievement' were more increasing in terms of the degree of difference of importance. And respondents who experienced 'lifetime anxiety' perceived that the degree of difference of importance was increasing in the six dimensions except for 'social influence'. Particularly, the increase in the importance of 'work-life balance' and 'positive relationship' was found to be the greatest among the career success dimensions. Research implications or Originality - Finally, it was concluded that changes in the external environment such as Covid-19 pandemic influence as a career shock and affect the level of importance in subjective career success perception. Based on the results, the theoretical implication on current career study and some practical implications for organizational career management were suggested.

A Study on the Operating Characteristics of the Aged ELCB according to the Overcurrent (노후화된 누전차단기의 과전류 동작 특성에 관한 연구)

  • Ye Jin Park;Sin Dong Kang;Jae-Ho Kim
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzes the operational characteristics of 311 aged and non-aged residual current circuit breakers (RCCBs) in low-voltage consumer contexts. It investigates the influence of external temperature and harmonics based on the rated current multiples. To simulate temperature variations, a convectional oven was used around the circuit breakers. Additionally, the generation of harmonic reference signals and data measurement for overcurrent experiments were conducted using NI SCXI, myDAQ, and LabVIEW. An observation revealed that as the ambient temperature increased, the operating time of RCCBs decreased in the time delay region. This was attributed to the faster response or bending of the bimetal, which is the tripping element. However, aged RCCBs encountered challenges with tripping outside the protective curve. The operating time of the circuit breakers exhibited an acceleration influenced by the order and content of harmonic currents, potentially leading to malfunctions. Aged RCCBs demonstrated faster operating times than their non-aged counterparts. However, the difference in operating time varied based on the manufacturer's and operating environment of the RCCBs. Frequent malfunctions of RCCBs can result in power outages. In cases where these circuit breakers fail to operate, they can lead to secondary damages, including electrical fires and shocks. Consequently, it is imperative to consider the operating environment of RCCBs and provide appropriate replacement cycles to mitigate these risks.

Crisis of trust of journalism in France: Cracks in journalistic institutions and professionalism, and the impact of social movement (프랑스 언론의 신뢰도 위기: 저널리즘 제도의 내적 균열과 사회운동의 영향)

  • Park, Jin woo;Kim, Soel ah
    • Analyses & Alternatives
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.185-226
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    • 2022
  • This study examines the crisis of trust of French journalism in the context of a global decline of media credibility. First of all, in the process of a huge social movement called the 'yellow vest' movement that started in 2018, distrust of the French journalism was expressed in an extreme form. This study examines some external factors in terms of the historical development of the French journalism and the public's long-standing 'criticism of journalism'. Specifically, this study first examines the quantitative indicators of trust of French journalism which were shown in Digital News Report published by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism. Next, it examines the historical and institutional formation process of French journalism and public distrust that emerged along with it. And specifically, the structural crisis-economic crisis, digital transformation and intensification of competition, and deterioration of quality problems etc.-of the French journalism exposed in media coverage on social movement in 2018 is review in relation with the working process or 'routine' of actual news production. In conclusion, this study asserts that the various aspects of internal rifts in French journalism system, as well as external shocks (the influence of social movements), are a key factor in explaining the recent decline of trust in French journalism.