• Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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• 2006.11a
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• pp.165-168
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• 2006

Exponential smoothing methods do not adapt well to unexpected changes in underlying process. Over the past few decades a number of adaptive smoothing models have been proposed which allow for the continuous adjustment of the smoothing constant value in order to provide a much earlier detection of unexpected changes. However, most of previous studies presented ad hoc procedure of adaptive forecasting without any theoretical background. In this paper, we propose a detection-adaptation procedure applied to simple and Holt's linear method. We derive level and slope change detection statistics based on Bayesian statistical theory and present distribution of the statistics by simulation method. The proposed procedure is compared with previous adaptive forecasting models using simulated data and economic time series data.

• IE interfaces
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• v.18 no.3
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• pp.343-349
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• 2005

This study presents the empirical results of comparing several demand forecasting methods for Supply Chain Management(SCM). Adaptive exponential smoothing using change detection statistics (Jun) is compared with Trigg and Leach's adaptive methods and SAS time series forecasting systems using weekly SCM demand data. The results show that Jun's method is superior to others in terms of one-step-ahead forecast error and eight-step-ahead forecast error. Based on the results, we conclude that the forecasting performance of SCM solution can be improved by the proposed adaptive forecasting method.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.1133-1140
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• 2008

The goal of this paper is to analysis of the trend for stream quality in Gumi industrial complex with Winters' exponential smoothing method. It used the five different monthly time series data such as BOD, COD, TN, TP and EC from January 1998 to December 2006. The data of BOD, COD, TN, TP and EC are analyzed by time series method and forecasted the trends until December 2007. The stream qualities change for the better about BOD, COD, TN and TP, but the stream qualities resulted by EC is still serious.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.17 no.31
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• pp.1-10
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• 1994

The purpose of this study is to search for the most effective forecasting model for condenser with independent demand among the quantitative methods such as Brown's exponential smoothing method, Box-Jenkins method, and multiple regression analysis method. The criterion for the comparison of the above models is mean squared error(MSE). The fitting results of these three methods are as follows. 1) Brown's exponential smoothing method is the simplest one, which means the method is easy to understand compared to others. But the precision is inferior to other ones. 2) Box-Jenkins method requires much historic data and takes time to get to the final model, although the precision is superior to that of Brown's exponential smoothing method. 3) Regression method explains the correlation between parts with similiar demand pattern, and the precision is the best out of three methods. Therefore, it is suggested that the multiple regression method is fairly good in precision for forecasting our item and that the method is easily applicable to practice.

• Journal of Computing Science and Engineering
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.17-24
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• 2014

In this paper, we propose a new implementation of a failure detector. The implementation uses a dual model of heartbeat and interaction. First, the heartbeat model is adopted to shorten the detection time, if the detection process does not receive the heartbeat message in the expected time. The interaction model is then used to check the process further. The expected time is calculated using the exponential smoothing method. Exponential smoothing can be used to estimate the next arrival time not only in the random data, but also in the data of linear trends. It is proven that the new detector in the paper can eventually be a perfect detector.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.10 no.1 s.33
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• pp.45-52
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• 2005

We proposed the product recommendation algorithm mixed the temporal association rule and the exponential smoothing method. The temporal association rule added a temporal concept in a commercial association rule In this paper. we proposed a exponential smoothing temporal association rule that is giving higher weights to recent data than past data. Through simulation and case study in temporal data sets, we confirmed that it is more Precise than existing temporal association rules but consumes running time.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.8 no.3
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• pp.91-99
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• 2009

Development of high-speed Internet services and the increased supply of mobile devices have become the key factor for the acceleration of ubiquitous technology. WiBro system, formed with lP backbone network, is a MBWA technology which provides high-speed multimedia service in a possibly broader coverage than Wireless LAN can offer. Wireless telecommunication environment needs not only mobility support in Layer 2 but also mobility management protocol in Layer 3 and has to minimize handover latency to provide seamless mobile services. In this paper, we propose a fast cross-layer handover scheme based on signal strength prediction in WiBro environment. The signal strength is measured at regular intervals and future value of the strength is predicted by Exponential Smoothing Method. With the help of the prediction, layer-3 handover activities are able to occur prior to layer-2 handover, and therefore, total handover latency is reduced. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed scheme predicts that future signal level accurately and reduces the total handover latency.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.5 no.6
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• pp.378-385
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• 2005

Mistaking normal packets for harmful traffic may not offer service in conformity with the intention of attacker with harmful traffic, because it is not easy to classify network traffic for normal service and it for DDoS(Distributed Denial of Service) attack. And in the IPv6 environment these researches on harmful traffic are weak. In this dissertation, hosts in the IPv6 environment are attacked by NETWOX and their attack traffic is monitored, then the statistical information of the traffic is obtained from MIB(Management Information Base) objects used in the IPv6. By adapting the ESM(Exponential Smoothing Method) to this information, a normal traffic boundary, i.e., a threshold is determined. Input traffic over the threshold is thought of as attack traffic.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartD
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• v.11D no.3
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• pp.741-746
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• 2004

As electronic commerce progresses, the temporal association rule is developed from partitioned data sets by time to offer personalized services for customer's interest. In this paper, we proposed a temporal association rule with exponential smoothing method that is giving higher weights to recent data than past data. Through simulation and case study, we confirmed that it is more precise than existing temporal association rules but consumes running time.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.244-253
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• 2013

In industries, shipping is an important issue in improving the forecasting accuracy of sales. This paper introduces a hybrid method and plural methods are compared. Focusing the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) that is equivalent to (1, 1) order autoregressive-moving-average (ARMA) model equation, a new method of estimating the smoothing constant in ESM had been proposed previously by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Generally, the smoothing constant is selected arbitrarily. However, this paper utilizes the above stated theoretical solution. Firstly, we make estimation of ARMA model parameter and then estimate the smoothing constant. Thus, theoretical solution is derived in a simple way and it may be utilized in various fields. Furthermore, combining the trend removing method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. This method is executed in the following method. Trend removing by the combination of linear and 2nd order nonlinear function and 3rd order nonlinear function is executed to the original production data of two kinds of bread. Genetic algorithm is utilized to search the optimal weight for the weighting parameters of linear and nonlinear function. For comparison, the monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non-monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful for the time series that has various trend characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.