• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제7권1호
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• pp.44-50
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• 2008

Focusing on the exponential smoothing method equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, a new method of estimating smoothing constant using exponential smoothing method is proposed. This study goes beyond the usual method of arbitrarily selecting a smoothing constant. First, an estimation of the ARMA model parameter was made and then, the smoothing constants. The empirical example shows that the theoretical solution satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. The new method was also applied to the stock market price of electrical machinery industry (6 major companies in Japan) and forecasting was accomplished. Comparing the results of the two methods, the new method appears to be better than the ARIMA model. The result of the new method is apparently good in 4 company data and is nearly the same in 2 company data. The example provided shows that the new method is much simpler to handle than ARIMA model. Therefore, the proposed method would be better in these general cases. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• 한국유기농업학회지
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• 제30권2호
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• pp.231-239
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• 2022

The purpose of this study is to provide meaningful information for various stakeholders' decision-making process through forecasting of domestic beef demand. Three different exponential smoothing models were evaluated, and a double exponential smoothing model was used to forecast domestic beef demand based on time-series data, As a result of the forecast, domestic beef consumption is expected to increase by 37,000 to 40,000 tons per year from 2020 to 2025.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제62권2호
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• pp.149-154
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• 2013

Short term load forecasting for electric power demand is essential for stable power system operation and efficient power market operation. High accuracy of the short term load forecasting can keep the power system more stable and save the power market operation cost. We propose an optimal coefficient selection method for exponential smoothing model in short term load forecasting on weekdays. In order to find the optimal coefficient of exponential smoothing model, load forecasting errors are minimized for actual electric load demand data of last three years. The proposed method are verified by case studies for last three years from 2009 to 2011. The results of case studies show that the average percentage errors of the proposed load forecasting method are improved comparing with errors of the previous methods.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제63권11호
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• pp.1497-1502
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• 2014

Electric load forecasting is essential for stable electric power supply, efficient operation and management of power systems, and safe operation of power generation systems. The results are utilized in generator preventive maintenance planning and the systemization of power reserve management. Development and improvement of electric load forecasting model is necessary for power system maintenance and operation. This paper proposes daily maximum electric load forecasting methods for the next 4 weeks with a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model and an exponential smoothing model. According to the results of forecasting of daily maximum electric load forecasting for the next 4 weeks of March, April, November 2010~2012 using the constructed forecasting models, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model showed an average error rate of 6,66%, 5.26%, 3.61% respectively and the exponential smoothing model showed an average error rate of 3.82%, 4.07%, 3.59% respectively.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
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• 제42권1호
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• pp.129-136
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• 2019

In this study, we proposed a model for forecasting power energy demand by investigating how outside temperature at a given time affected power consumption and. To this end, we analyzed the time series of power consumption in terms of the power spectrum and found the periodicities of one day and one week. With these periodicities, we investigated two time series of temperature and power consumption, and found, for a given hour, an approximate linear relation between temperature and power consumption. We adopted an exponential smoothing model to examine the effect of the linearity in forecasting the power demand. In particular, we adjusted the exponential smoothing model by using the variation of power consumption due to temperature change. In this way, the proposed model became a mixture of a time series model and a regression model. We demonstrated that the adjusted model outperformed the exponential smoothing model alone in terms of the mean relative percentage error and the root mean square error in the range of 3%~8% and 4kWh~27kWh, respectively. The results of this study can be used to the energy management system in terms of the effective control of the cross usage of the electric energy together with the outside temperature.

• Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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• 제8권4호
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• pp.257-263
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• 2009

Focusing on the idea that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1, 1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoothing method is proposed before by us which satisfies minimum variance of forecasting error. Theoretical solution was derived in a simple way. Mere application of ESM does not make good forecasting accuracy for the time series which has non-linear trend and/or trend by month. A new method to cope with this issue is required. In this paper, combining the trend removal method with this method, we aim to improve forecasting accuracy. An approach to this method is executed in the following method. Trend removal by a linear function is applied to the original shipping data of consumer goods. The combination of linear and non-linear function is also introduced in trend removal. For the comparison, monthly trend is removed after that. Theoretical solution of smoothing constant of ESM is calculated for both of the monthly trend removing data and the non monthly trend removing data. Then forecasting is executed on these data. The new method shows that it is useful especially for the time series that has stable characteristics and has rather strong seasonal trend and also the case that has non-linear trend. The effectiveness of this method should be examined in various cases.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제16권2호
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• pp.129-134
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• 1990

Exponential smoothing methods have enjoyed a long history of successful applications and have been used in forecasting for many years. However, it has been long known that one of the deficiencies of the method is an inability to respond quickly to interventions to interruptions, or to large changes in level of the underlying process. An exponential smoothing method adaptive to repeated random level changes is proposed using a change-detection statistic derived from a simple dynamic linear model. The results are compared with Trigg and Leach's and the exponential smoothing methods.

• Nutritional Sciences
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• 제9권3호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2006

The purpose of this study was to provide dietitians with the guidance in forecasting meal counts for a university/college foodservice facility. The forecasting methods to be analyzed were the following: naive model 1, 2, and 3; moving average, double moving average, simple exponential smoothing, double exponential smoothing, Holt's, and Winters' methods, and simple linear regression. The accuracy of the forecasting methods was measured using mean squared error and Theil's U-statistic. This study showed how to project meal counts using 10 forecasting methods for dietitians. The results of this study showed that WES was the most accurate forecasting method, followed by $na\ddot{i}ve$ 2 and naive 3 models. However, naive model 2 and 3 were recommended for using by dietitians in university/college dining facilities because of the accuracy and ease of use. In addition, the 2000 spring semester data were better than the 2000 fall semester data to forecast 2001spring semester data.

• 응용통계연구
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.221-235
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• 2009

This manuscript illustrates the comparative study between ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing modeling to develop forest fire forecasting system using different weather parameters. In this paper, authors have developed the most suitable and closest forecasting models like ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing techniques using different weather parameters. Authors have considered the extremes of the Wind speed, Radiation, Maximum Temperature and Deviation Temperature of the Summer Season form March to June month for the Ranchi Region in Jharkhand. The data is taken by own resource with the help of Automatic Weather Station. This paper consists a deep study of the effect of extreme values of the different parameters on the weather fluctuations which creates forest fires in the region. In this paper, the numerical illustration has been incorporated to support the present study. Comparative study of different suitable models also incorporated and best fitted model has been tested for these parameters.

• 한국방재안전학회논문집
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.35-42
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• 2021

본 논문은 전기자동차 충전시설 확충계획에 중요한 요소인 전기자동차 전력 수요량 예측정보를 생산하기 위하여 Exponential Smoothing를 이용하여 전력 수요량 예측 모형을 제안하였다. 모형의 입력자료 구축을 위하여 종속변수로 월별 시군구 전력수요량을 독립변수로 월별 시군구 충전소 보급대수, 월별 시군구 전기자동차 충전소 충전 횟수, 월별 전기자동차 등록대수 자료를 월 단위로 수집하고 수집된 7년간 자료 중 4년간 자료를 학습기간으로 3년간 자료를 검증 기간으로 적용하였다. 전기자동차 전력 수요량 예측 모형의 정확성을 검증하기위하여 통계적 방법인 Exponential Smoothing(ETS), ARIMA모형의 결과와 비교한 결과 ETS, ARIMA 각각의 오차율은 12%, 21%로 본 논문에서 제시한 ETS가 9% 더 정확하게 분석되었으며, 전기자동차 전력 수요량 예측 모형으로써 적합함을 확인하였다. 향후 이 모형을 이용한 전기자동차 충전소 설치 계획부터 운영관리 측면에서 활용될 것으로 기대한다.