• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제15권26호
• /
• pp.111-117
• /
• 1992

In the stock marketing. investor needs speedy and accurate decision making for the investment. A stock exchange index provides the important index of the early of 1993 in Korea using Fuzzy Delphi Method(F. D. M) which is widely used to a mid and long range forecasting in decision making problem. In the Fuzzy Delphi method, considerably qualified experts an first requested to give their opinion seperately and without intercommunication. The forecasting data of experts consist of Triangular Fuzzy Number (T.F.N) which represents the pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic forecast of a stock exchange index. A statistical analysis and dissemblance index are then made of these subject data. These new information are then transmitted to the experts once again, and the process of reestimation is continued until the process converges to a reasonable stable forecast of stock exchange index. The goal of this research is to forecast the stock exchange index using F.D.M. in which subjective data of experts are transformed into quasi -objective data index by some statistical analysis and fuzzy operations. (a) A long range forecasting problem must be considered as an uncertain but not random problem. The direct use of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy methods seems to be more compatible and well suited. (b) The experts use their individual competency and subjectivity and this is the very reason why we propose the use of fuzzy concepts. (c) If you ask an expert the following question: Consider the forecasting of the price index of stocks in the near future. This experts wi11 certainly be more comfortable giving an answer to this question using three types of values: the maximum value, the proper value, and the minimum value rather than an answer in terms of the probability.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
• /
• 제10권7호
• /
• pp.67-79
• /
• 2009

댐의 경과년수에 따라 고장으로 폐기되는 매설계기의 지속적인 증가로 인해 기존 필댐의 유지관리를 위한 계측시스템의 재정립이 필요한 상황이지만 필댐의 파괴모드와 계측기의 중요도에 대한 체계적이고 정량적인 분석 없이 과거의 경험과 소수 전문가의 자문의견에만 의존하여 유지관리 계측계획을 수립하고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 선행연구(Andersen 등, 1999)를 기초로 하여 5개 기존 필댐 계측항목의 중요도를 정량적으로 분석하여 우선순위를 산정한 결과로서 상세 외관조사와 함께 침투수량계, 표면 침하점, 간극수압계에 대한 상시 모니터링 체계의 구축을 기존 필댐 계측시스템의 재정립 방안으로 제시하였으며 이것은 일본토목연구소(1984), 일본 대댐회(국토교통성, 1986)의 권고사항과 Bagherzadeh-Khakkahali와 Mirghasemi(2005)의 분석결과와도 잘 일치하는 것으로 나타났다.

• 한국산업보건학회지
• /
• 제15권3호
• /
• pp.192-201
• /
• 2005

The Korean government had introduced the industrial safety & hygiene consultant(ISHC) system to improve worksite health and safety level by providing specialized industrial safety & hygiene(S&H) services in 1996. Despite of initial hopeful expectation it has been said that this plan might fail to settled down and maintain its purpose. This study was designed to investigate operational issues and problems concerning the ISHC system, that would direct the way of change and future role. Questionnaire were sent to ISHC, professional engineer, agencies for occupational injury prevention, S&H specialist in the corporation nationwide and totally 256 people responded to in having 62.7% of response rate. The result of this study were as follows; 1. One hundred and forty two cases of safety assessment and 27 cases of process safety reports were the six years' results since 1996 the ISHC program had first been introduced. This results showed that injury prevention activities of ISHC had been stagnant. 2. The 78.8% of respondents had negative opinion about injury prevention activities of ISHC program. 3. The operational problems of ISHC were lack of understanding of company about ISHC, low systematization of work items, duty overlapping with agencies for occupational injury prevention, low support by government. in order. 4. It was suggested that abolition of ISHC and promotion of professional engineer system should be considered. 5. To promote professional engineer system it was suggested that the professional engineer could conduct consulting service and ISHC should be integrated with the expert system.

• Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
• /
• 제23권4호
• /
• pp.356-365
• /
• 2020

Purpose: There have been many efforts to develop generalizable severity markers in children with acute pancreatitis (AP). Expert opinion panels have developed consensus guidelines on management but it is unclear if these are sufficient or valid. Our study aims to assess the effect of clinical and laboratory variables, in addition to treatment modality on hospital length of stay (LOS) as a proxy variable for severity in pediatric patients admitted with AP. Methods: We conducted a retrospective chart review of patients between ages of 0-18 years, who were admitted with AP at 2 institutions between 2013-2018, John R. Oishei Children's Hospital (Buffalo, NY, USA) and Medical University of South Carolina Children's Hospital (Charleston, SC, USA). We constructed three linear regression models to analyze the effect of clinical signs of organ dysfunction, laboratory markers and fluid intake on hospital LOS. Results: Ninety-two patients were included in the study. The mean age was 12 years (range, 7.6-17.4 years), 55% were females, and median LOS was 3 days. The most frequent cause of AP was idiopathic. Our study showed that elevated blood urea nitrogen (BUN) on admission (p<0.005), tachycardia that lasted for ≥48 hours (p<0.001) and need for fluid resuscitation were associated with increase LOS. Total daily fluid intake above maintenance did not have a significant effect on the primary outcome (p=0.49). Conclusion: Elevated serum BUN on admission, persistent tachycardia and need for fluid resuscitation were associated with increase LOS in pediatric AP. Daily total fluid intake above recommended maintenance did not reduce LOS.

• 한국도로학회논문집
• /
• 제8권4호
• /
• pp.145-157
• /
• 2006

도로건설사업에서 정책적인 의사결정이 필요한 경우, 다기준 평가방법인 AHP로 전문가 설문조사를 통한 정책적 분석을 시도하였다. 그러나 PI 제도 도입에 따라 도로관련 전문가뿐 아니라 지역주민, 환경단체 등 여러 관련 그룹의 다양한 의견이 제기되므로, 그룹간 의견을 종합하는 것이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 도로건설사업의 PI 제도 운영실태를 연구 사례로 하여, AHP모형의 가중치 계산과정에서 각 그룹별로 설문조사한 자료를 이용하여, 의사결정과정에서 그룹별로 어떤 요인들을 중요시하는지 그룹별 AHP 분석을 시행하고, 그룹별 가중치가 반영된 통합 결과와 비교평가하였다. 분석결과, 그룹간 평가항목에서 분산분석(ANOVA)에 유의한 차이가 있는 것으로 분석되어, 각 그룹마다 중요하게 여기는 평가항목의 우선순위가 상이함이 확인되었다. 종합평가 결과 평가대안은 동일한 결과를 보였으나, 첫째, 그룹간 AHP 분석결과 전문가 그룹과 주민 그룹간, 전문가 그룹과 시민단체 그룹간에 유의한 차이가 있어, 그룹별 평가 필요성이 제기되었다. 둘째, 통합평가를 위한 그룹간 평가가중치 산정결과에도 현저한 차이가 나타났으며, 가중치를 고려한 AHP분석방법이 다양한 그룹의 의사결정 지원도구로 활용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

• 지질공학
• /
• 제21권4호
• /
• pp.393-402
• /
• 2011

석면은 강한 독성이 있는 물질로 폐암 및 폐와 관련된 질환에 치명적이다. 최근 자연 상태의 석면이 함유된 지역에 대한 정확한 정보의 부재로 석면이 함유된 지역을 효율적으로 관리할 필요가 있다. 본 연구의 목적은 효율적인 석면관리를 위해서 석면위험지역을 지역적으로 등급화 할 수 있는 자연 상태의 석면 노출위험도를 제작하는 것이다. 이를 위해서는 먼저 석면 위험지역을 평가할 수 있는 주제를 발굴하고 필요에 따라 현지조사를 통해 공간적으로 매핑 할 수 있는 주제도를 작성한다. 또한 석면 데이터에 대한 분석 표현 및 프로세스들을 정리하여 석면 지식베이스 구축을 하고 석면노출위험을 위한 평가모델을 마련한다. 석면 노출위험도 작성을 위한 공간분석은 문헌 및 전문가의 의견에 기반을 둔 가중치 분석과 불확실한 데이터에 사용하는 퍼지 연산자들을 이용한 공간 중첩분석을 수행한다. 가중치 및 퍼지 연산에 따라 작성된 석면 노출 위험도는 지역을 계층적 관리함으로써 석면 안전 및 보상에 활용할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 환경영향평가
• /
• 제5권2호
• /
• pp.33-47
• /
• 1996

To select the criteria, literature review was made in the quantitative case of conservation biology, foreign country's EIA and domestic ecology. Among them, a few factors was extracted. To applicate the criteria to domestic forest ecosystem, expert opinion survey was executed to the ecologist. The results were summarized as follows; 1. Classification of sites was made of land use system which is related to forest ecosystem or forest conservation. Sites are divided into 3 categories which are nature preservation area, seminature preservation area and urbanized area. Evaluation criteria is consisted of rarity and naturalness. 2. Each area had different criteria composition according to the site characteristics. Criteria of nature preservation area is rarity in the broad sense (distribution pattern of vegetation), vegetation size, successional stage and depth of organic matters. Those of seminature preservation area are rarity in the broad sense (distribution area of vegetation), vegetation size, successional stage, diameter at breath height and depth of organic matters. And those of urbanized area are vegetation distribution in area, successional stage, age of forest and diameter of breath height. The basic data of criterion was gathered by field survey. 3. Evaluation index and total naturalness index was obtained by adding the each criterion. It is made up of two categories-rarity and naturalness. TNi is divided into 3 grades. Grade I is more than 70% for TNi, grade IT is 50~70%, and grade III is below 50%. According to the each grade, permitted action and facilities were suggested.. This research just focuses on the evaluation of vegetation quality and the assessment results do not directly judge conservation or development. To make better evaluation criteria, various fields of forest ecosystem-geological or physical nature environment and fauna ecosystem etc. -will be added wholly to this research.

• 종양간호연구
• /
• 제4권1호
• /
• pp.49-61
• /
• 2004

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to suggest the projected manpower of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses needed in the future. Method: Need models, ratio models and expert opinion were used for projecting the number of oncology nurses & Advanced oncology certified nurses. Resul: 1. The demand for the oncology nurses was estimated 6,043 in the year 2003, 6,548 in the year 2005, and 4,556 in the year 2010. 2. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of hospitalized patients were estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-583 in the year 2005, and 448-672 in the year 2010. 3. The demand range of the middle and long term advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of sickbed were estimated 507-787 in the year 2005, 523-810 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 4. The demand range of the advanced oncology certified nurses centering on the number of organizations were estimated 374 in the year 2003, 399 in the year 2005, 410 in the year 2010. 5. The total demand range, concerning the numbers of hospitalized patients, hospital bed, and organizations are estimated 358-538 in the year 2003, 388-787 in the year 2005, 428-840 in the year 2010, and 540-837 in the year 2020. 6. In the demand of developed country's level oncology nurses are OCN's level 1,495, AOCN's level 102 in the year 2003, OCN's level 1,613, AOCN's level 111 in the year 2005, OCN's level 1,879, AOCN's level 128 in the year 2010 in case of the United States, and in case of Canada, 765 in the year 2003, 826 in the year 2005, and 956 in the year 2010.

• 보건교육건강증진학회지
• /
• 제24권2호
• /
• pp.15-28
• /
• 2007

Objectives: In this paper, the survey on internet usage patterns of health consumers was conducted and analyzed in order to determine internet health information assessment criteria for providing correct consumer health information on web-sites. Methods: By using a survey questionnaire with 16 questions on general information and 20 questions on internet health information, data were collected from September 16 to 25, 2005 from 476 participants through an internet web site, http://www.hp.go.kr. Frequency analysis, t-test, and multiple regression were used in order to analyze the difference in assessment criteria, factors influencing assessment criteria, factors influencing user satisfaction, etc. Results: General characteristics of the study population were: the persons over age 40 were the smallest age group; women were accounted for 74.2%; and the persons with average income were the largest income group; and the persons with average health status were the largest health group. Most widely used health information were: exercise, disease, and diet, in order. There was significant difference(p=.001) in importance of assessment criteria between the persons in medical institutions and the persons not in medical institutions. There was no significant difference in other assessment criteria. We also found that contents of websites and easy to use were more important factors than elucidation of information providers and information sources including speciality of information in quality assessment criteria of internet health information. Discussion and Conclusion: Results of this paper were compared with the previous studies from the literatures. Contrary to the previous studies in the literature, there was significant difference in importance of assessment criteria between the persons in medical institutions and the persons not in medical institutions. In order to apply the study results to develop health contents for consumer, there is a need for further upgrade the proposed assessment criteria based on expert opinion.

• 사상체질의학회지
• /
• 제20권2호
• /
• pp.43-52
• /
• 2008

1. Objectives This study aims to find out the factors that affect to healthy level according to Sasang Constitutions by comparing THI health state with Sasang Health Index. 2. Methods One hundred twenty one healthy students from Korean oriental medical colleges participated in this study. We used the Questionnaire for Sasang Constitution Classification II(QSCC II) and expert opinion to diagnose Sasang Constitution, and used Sasang Health Index and THI questionnaire to take health information about Sasang Constitution, from 121 people of Sasang Constitution Information Bank. 3. Results 1) The 'Good Sweat' in Taeumin health level was higher than others, especially in case of 'Refreshness after Sweat' and the 'Good Feces' also higher in case of 'Much Volume in Defecation' 'Regularity in Defecation' 'Refreshness after Evacuation'. 2) The 'Good Feces' in Soyangin health level was higher than others, especially in case of 'Thickness'. 3) The 'Good Digestion' in Soeumin health level was not significantly higher than others. 4) The better symptoms in 'Good Sweat', the better health in Taeumin. 4. Conclusions Sasang Constitution Health Level is significantly related with Sasang Health Index.