• Title/Summary/Keyword: Experimental bias

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Downscaling of Sunshine Duration for a Complex Terrain Based on the Shaded Relief Image and the Sky Condition (하늘상태와 음영기복도에 근거한 복잡지형의 일조시간 분포 상세화)

  • Kim, Seung-Ho;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.233-241
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    • 2016
  • Experiments were carried out to quantify the topographic effects on attenuation of sunshine in complex terrain and the results are expected to help convert the coarse resolution sunshine duration information provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) into a detailed map reflecting the terrain characteristics of mountainous watershed. Hourly shaded relief images for one year, each pixel consisting of 0 to 255 brightness value, were constructed by applying techniques of shadow modeling and skyline analysis to the 3m resolution digital elevation model for an experimental watershed on the southern slope of Mt. Jiri in Korea. By using a bimetal sunshine recorder, sunshine duration was measured at three points with different terrain conditions in the watershed from May 15, 2015 to May 14, 2016. The brightness values of the 3 corresponding pixel points on the shaded relief map were extracted and regressed to the measured sunshine duration, resulting in a brightness-sunshine duration response curve for a clear day. We devised a method to calibrate this curve equation according to sky condition categorized by cloud amount and used it to derive an empirical model for estimating sunshine duration over a complex terrain. When the performance of this model was compared with a conventional scheme for estimating sunshine duration over a horizontal plane, the estimation bias was improved remarkably and the root mean square error for daily sunshine hour was 1.7hr, which is a reduction by 37% from the conventional method. In order to apply this model to a given area, the clear-sky sunshine duration of each pixel should be produced on hourly intervals first, by driving the curve equation with the hourly shaded relief image of the area. Next, the cloud effect is corrected by 3-hourly 'sky condition' of the KMA digital forecast products. Finally, daily sunshine hour can be obtained by accumulating the hourly sunshine duration. A detailed sunshine duration distribution of 3m horizontal resolution was obtained by applying this procedure to the experimental watershed.

Rainfall image DB construction for rainfall intensity estimation from CCTV videos: focusing on experimental data in a climatic environment chamber (CCTV 영상 기반 강우강도 산정을 위한 실환경 실험 자료 중심 적정 강우 이미지 DB 구축 방법론 개발)

  • Byun, Jongyun;Jun, Changhyun;Kim, Hyeon-Joon;Lee, Jae Joon;Park, Hunil;Lee, Jinwook
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.56 no.6
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    • pp.403-417
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    • 2023
  • In this research, a methodology was developed for constructing an appropriate rainfall image database for estimating rainfall intensity based on CCTV video. The database was constructed in the Large-Scale Climate Environment Chamber of the Korea Conformity Laboratories, which can control variables with high irregularity and variability in real environments. 1,728 scenarios were designed under five different experimental conditions. 36 scenarios and a total of 97,200 frames were selected. Rain streaks were extracted using the k-nearest neighbor algorithm by calculating the difference between each image and the background. To prevent overfitting, data with pixel values greater than set threshold, compared to the average pixel value for each image, were selected. The area with maximum pixel variability was determined by shifting with every 10 pixels and set as a representative area (180×180) for the original image. After re-transforming to 120×120 size as an input data for convolutional neural networks model, image augmentation was progressed under unified shooting conditions. 92% of the data showed within the 10% absolute range of PBIAS. It is clear that the final results in this study have the potential to enhance the accuracy and efficacy of existing real-world CCTV systems with transfer learning.

The Effect of Common Features on Consumer Preference for a No-Choice Option: The Moderating Role of Regulatory Focus (재몰유선택적정황하공동특성대우고객희호적영향(在没有选择的情况下共同特性对于顾客喜好的影响): 조절초점적조절작용(调节焦点的调节作用))

  • Park, Jong-Chul;Kim, Kyung-Jin
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.89-97
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    • 2010
  • This study researches the effects of common features on a no-choice option with respect to regulatory focus theory. The primary interest is in three factors and their interrelationship: common features, no-choice option, and regulatory focus. Prior studies have compiled vast body of research in these areas. First, the "common features effect" has been observed bymany noted marketing researchers. Tversky (1972) proposed the seminal theory, the EBA model: elimination by aspect. According to this theory, consumers are prone to focus only on unique features during comparison processing, thereby dismissing any common features as redundant information. Recently, however, more provocative ideas have attacked the EBA model by asserting that common features really do affect consumer judgment. Chernev (1997) first reported that adding common features mitigates the choice gap because of the increasing perception of similarity among alternatives. Later, however, Chernev (2001) published a critically developed study against his prior perspective with the proposition that common features may be a cognitive load to consumers, and thus consumers are possible that they are prone to prefer the heuristic processing to the systematic processing. This tends to bring one question to the forefront: Do "common features" affect consumer choice? If so, what are the concrete effects? This study tries to answer the question with respect to the "no-choice" option and regulatory focus. Second, some researchers hold that the no-choice option is another best alternative of consumers, who are likely to avoid having to choose in the context of knotty trade-off settings or mental conflicts. Hope for the future also may increase the no-choice option in the context of optimism or the expectancy of a more satisfactory alternative appearing later. Other issues reported in this domain are time pressure, consumer confidence, and alternative numbers (Dhar and Nowlis 1999; Lin and Wu 2005; Zakay and Tsal 1993). This study casts the no-choice option in yet another perspective: the interactive effects between common features and regulatory focus. Third, "regulatory focus theory" is a very popular theme in recent marketing research. It suggests that consumers have two focal goals facing each other: promotion vs. prevention. A promotion focus deals with the concepts of hope, inspiration, achievement, or gain, whereas prevention focus involves duty, responsibility, safety, or loss-aversion. Thus, while consumers with a promotion focus tend to take risks for gain, the same does not hold true for a prevention focus. Regulatory focus theory predicts consumers' emotions, creativity, attitudes, memory, performance, and judgment, as documented in a vast field of marketing and psychology articles. The perspective of the current study in exploring consumer choice and common features is a somewhat creative viewpoint in the area of regulatory focus. These reviews inspire this study of the interaction possibility between regulatory focus and common features with a no-choice option. Specifically, adding common features rather than omitting them may increase the no-choice option ratio in the choice setting only to prevention-focused consumers, but vice versa to promotion-focused consumers. The reasoning is that when prevention-focused consumers come in contact with common features, they may perceive higher similarity among the alternatives. This conflict among similar options would increase the no-choice ratio. Promotion-focused consumers, however, are possible that they perceive common features as a cue of confirmation bias. And thus their confirmation processing would make their prior preference more robust, then the no-choice ratio may shrink. This logic is verified in two experiments. The first is a $2{\times}2$ between-subject design (whether common features or not X regulatory focus) using a digital cameras as the relevant stimulus-a product very familiar to young subjects. Specifically, the regulatory focus variable is median split through a measure of eleven items. Common features included zoom, weight, memory, and battery, whereas the other two attributes (pixel and price) were unique features. Results supported our hypothesis that adding common features enhanced the no-choice ratio only to prevention-focus consumers, not to those with a promotion focus. These results confirm our hypothesis - the interactive effects between a regulatory focus and the common features. Prior research had suggested that including common features had a effect on consumer choice, but this study shows that common features affect choice by consumer segmentation. The second experiment was used to replicate the results of the first experiment. This experimental study is equal to the prior except only two - priming manipulation and another stimulus. For the promotion focus condition, subjects had to write an essay using words such as profit, inspiration, pleasure, achievement, development, hedonic, change, pursuit, etc. For prevention, however, they had to use the words persistence, safety, protection, aversion, loss, responsibility, stability etc. The room for rent had common features (sunshine, facility, ventilation) and unique features (distance time and building state). These attributes implied various levels and valence for replication of the prior experiment. Our hypothesis was supported repeatedly in the results, and the interaction effects were significant between regulatory focus and common features. Thus, these studies showed the dual effects of common features on consumer choice for a no-choice option. Adding common features may enhance or mitigate no-choice, contradictory as it may sound. Under a prevention focus, adding common features is likely to enhance the no-choice ratio because of increasing mental conflict; under the promotion focus, it is prone to shrink the ratio perhaps because of a "confirmation bias." The research has practical and theoretical implications for marketers, who may need to consider common features carefully in a practical display context according to consumer segmentation (i.e., promotion vs. prevention focus.) Theoretically, the results suggest some meaningful moderator variable between common features and no-choice in that the effect on no-choice option is partly dependent on a regulatory focus. This variable corresponds not only to a chronic perspective but also a situational perspective in our hypothesis domain. Finally, in light of some shortcomings in the research, such as overlooked attribute importance, low ratio of no-choice, or the external validity issue, we hope it influences future studies to explore the little-known world of the "no-choice option."

Risk Factors Related to Uterine Leiomyoma in Korean Women - A Retrospective Study - (한국인 여성에서 자궁근종 발생에 관여하는 인자들에 대한 연구 - 후향적 연구 -)

  • Hong, D.G.;Chung, M.J.;Kim, B.S.;Lee, J.M.;Cho, Y.L.;Lee, T.H.;Chun, S.S.
    • Clinical and Experimental Reproductive Medicine
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.159-170
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    • 2006
  • Objective: The purpose of this study is to find out risk factors related to uterine leiomyoma in Korean women and to compare with the results of previous western studies. Methods: A retrospective analysis was carried out. All the cases of uterine leiomyoma (n=244) were diagnosed surgically or sonographically between Jannuary 1998 and December 2004. Total of 269 controls not having uterine leiomyoma were collected from patients who visited Kyungpook national university hospital for routine gynecologic check-up or treatment of their gynecologic or obstetric diseases other than uterine leiomyoma. Data were collected through review of medical records and interviews and analyzed with $x^2$ and logistic regression model. Results: In multivariate analysis, patient's age (OR 1.070; 95% CI 1.041~1.099), number of artificial abortion (OR 1.182; 95% CI 1.018~1.374) and alcohol drinking (OR 1.865; 95% CI 1.231~2.824) had significantly positive correlation with uterine leiomyoma. The duration of lactation was the only factor which had negative correlation (OR 0.985; 95% CI 0.972~0.998). BMI, parity, age at menarche, the duration and interval of menstruation, caffeine consumption and marital status did not show any correlations. Conclusion: In this study, patient's age, number of artificial abortion, and alcohol drinking were the risk factors of uterine leiomyoma in Korean women and the result was similar to that of western studies. Though we couldn't find out the specific risk factors related to the development of uterine leiomyoma in this study, but it has a great meaning to be the first trial in Korean women. The role of information bias should be carefully evaluated and further multicentered, randomized, controlled prospective studies will be needed to know the possible risk factors among Korean women.

Thought Experiments: on the Working Imagination and its Limitation (사고실험 - 상상의 작용과 한도에 대해)

  • Hwang, Hee-sook
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • v.146
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    • pp.307-328
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    • 2018
  • The use of thought experiments has a long history in many disciplines including science. In the field of philosophy, thought experiments have frequently appeared in the pre-existing literature on the contemporary Analytic Philosophy. A thought experiment refers to a synthetic environment where the designer of the experiment-with his or her intuition and imagination-tests common-sense knowledge. It can be understood as a conceptual tool for testing the validity of the common understanding of an issue or a phenomenon. However, we are not certain about the usefulness or efficacy of a thought experiment in knowledge production. The design of a thought experiment is meant to lure readers into believing as intended by the experiment itself. Thus, regardless of the purpose of a thought experiment, many readers who encounter the experiment could feel deceived. In this paper, to analyze the logic of thought experiments and to seek the source of uneasiness the readers and critics may feel about thought experiments, I draw lessons from three renowned thought-experiments: Thomson's 'ailing violinist', Putnam's 'brain in a vat', and Searle's 'Chinese room'. Imaginative thought experiments are usually constructed around a gap between the reality and the knowledge/information at hand. From the three experiments, several lessons can be learned. First, the evidence of the existence of a gap provided via thought experiments can serve as arguments for counterfactual situations. At the same time, the credibility and efficacy of the thought experiments can be damaged as soon as the thought-experiments are carried out with inappropriate and/or murky directions regarding the procedures of the experiment or the background of the study. According to D. R. Hofstadter and D. C. Dennett(1981), the 'knob setting' in a thought experiment can be altered in the middle of a simulation of the experimental condition, and then the implications of the thought experiment change altogether, indicating that an entirely different conclusion can be deduced from thought experiment. Lastly, some pre-suppositions and bias of the experiment designers play a considerable role in the validity and the chances of success of a thought experiment; thus, it is recommended that the experiment-designers refrain from exercising too much of their imagination in order to avoid contaminating the design of the experiment and/or wrongly accepting preconceived/misguided conclusions.

A Proposal of a Keyword Extraction System for Detecting Social Issues (사회문제 해결형 기술수요 발굴을 위한 키워드 추출 시스템 제안)

  • Jeong, Dami;Kim, Jaeseok;Kim, Gi-Nam;Heo, Jong-Uk;On, Byung-Won;Kang, Mijung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.1-23
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    • 2013
  • To discover significant social issues such as unemployment, economy crisis, social welfare etc. that are urgent issues to be solved in a modern society, in the existing approach, researchers usually collect opinions from professional experts and scholars through either online or offline surveys. However, such a method does not seem to be effective from time to time. As usual, due to the problem of expense, a large number of survey replies are seldom gathered. In some cases, it is also hard to find out professional persons dealing with specific social issues. Thus, the sample set is often small and may have some bias. Furthermore, regarding a social issue, several experts may make totally different conclusions because each expert has his subjective point of view and different background. In this case, it is considerably hard to figure out what current social issues are and which social issues are really important. To surmount the shortcomings of the current approach, in this paper, we develop a prototype system that semi-automatically detects social issue keywords representing social issues and problems from about 1.3 million news articles issued by about 10 major domestic presses in Korea from June 2009 until July 2012. Our proposed system consists of (1) collecting and extracting texts from the collected news articles, (2) identifying only news articles related to social issues, (3) analyzing the lexical items of Korean sentences, (4) finding a set of topics regarding social keywords over time based on probabilistic topic modeling, (5) matching relevant paragraphs to a given topic, and (6) visualizing social keywords for easy understanding. In particular, we propose a novel matching algorithm relying on generative models. The goal of our proposed matching algorithm is to best match paragraphs to each topic. Technically, using a topic model such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), we can obtain a set of topics, each of which has relevant terms and their probability values. In our problem, given a set of text documents (e.g., news articles), LDA shows a set of topic clusters, and then each topic cluster is labeled by human annotators, where each topic label stands for a social keyword. For example, suppose there is a topic (e.g., Topic1 = {(unemployment, 0.4), (layoff, 0.3), (business, 0.3)}) and then a human annotator labels "Unemployment Problem" on Topic1. In this example, it is non-trivial to understand what happened to the unemployment problem in our society. In other words, taking a look at only social keywords, we have no idea of the detailed events occurring in our society. To tackle this matter, we develop the matching algorithm that computes the probability value of a paragraph given a topic, relying on (i) topic terms and (ii) their probability values. For instance, given a set of text documents, we segment each text document to paragraphs. In the meantime, using LDA, we can extract a set of topics from the text documents. Based on our matching process, each paragraph is assigned to a topic, indicating that the paragraph best matches the topic. Finally, each topic has several best matched paragraphs. Furthermore, assuming there are a topic (e.g., Unemployment Problem) and the best matched paragraph (e.g., Up to 300 workers lost their jobs in XXX company at Seoul). In this case, we can grasp the detailed information of the social keyword such as "300 workers", "unemployment", "XXX company", and "Seoul". In addition, our system visualizes social keywords over time. Therefore, through our matching process and keyword visualization, most researchers will be able to detect social issues easily and quickly. Through this prototype system, we have detected various social issues appearing in our society and also showed effectiveness of our proposed methods according to our experimental results. Note that you can also use our proof-of-concept system in http://dslab.snu.ac.kr/demo.html.