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Summative Evaluation of 1993, 1994 Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation (제 1, 2회 학생 과학 공동탐구 토론대회의 종합적 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Yoon, Hye-Gyoung
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.376-388
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    • 1996
  • The first and the second "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation" was evaluated in this study. This contest was a part of 'Korean Youth Science Festival' held in 1993 and 1994. The evaluation was based on the data collected from the middle school students of final teams, their teachers, a large number of middle school students and college students who were audience of the final competition. Questionnaires, interviews, reports of final teams, and video tape of final competition were used to collect data. The study focussed on three research questions. The first was about the preparation and the research process of students of final teams. The second was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest. The third was whether participating the Contest was useful experience for the students and the teachers of the final teams. The first area, the preparation and the research process of students, were investigated in three aspects. One was the level of cooperation, participation, support and the role of teachers. The second was the information search and experiment, and the third was the report writing. The students of the final teams from both years, had positive opinion about the cooperation, students' active involvement, and support from family and school. Students considered their teachers to be a guide or a counsellor, showing their level of active participation. On the other hand, the interview of 1993 participants showed that there were times that teachers took strong leading role. Therefore one can conclude that students took active roles most of the time while the room for improvement still exists. To search the information they need during the period of the preparation, student visited various places such as libraries, bookstores, universities, and research institutes. Their search was not limited to reading the books, although the books were primary source of information. Students also learned how to organize the information they found and considered leaning of organizing skill useful and fun. Variety of experiments was an important part of preparation and students had positive opinion about it. Understanding related theory was considered most difficult and important, while designing and building proper equipments was considered difficult but not important. This reflects the students' school experience where the equipments were all set in advance and students were asked to confirm the theories presented in the previous class hours. About the reports recording the research process, students recognize the importance and the necessity of the report but had difficulty in writing it. Their reports showed tendency to list everything they did without clear connection to the problem to be solved. Most of the reports did not record the references and some of them confused report writing with story telling. Therefore most of them need training in writing the reports. It is also desirable to describe the process of student learning when theory or mathematics that are beyond the level of middle school curriculum were used because it is part of their investigation. The second area of evaluation was about the format and the proceeding of the Contest, the problems given to students, and the process of student discussion. The format of the Contests, which consisted of four parts, presentation, refutation, debate and review, received good evaluation from students because it made students think more and gave more difficult time but was meaningful and helped to remember longer time according to students. On the other hand, students said the time given to each part of the contest was too short. The problems given to students were short and open ended to stimulate students' imagination and to offer various possible routes to the solution. This type of problem was very unfamiliar and gave a lot of difficulty to students. Student had positive opinion about the research process they experienced but did not recognize the fact that such a process was possible because of the oneness of the task. The level of the problems was rated as too difficult by teachers and college students but as appropriate by the middle school students in audience and participating students. This suggests that it is possible for student to convert the problems to be challengeable and intellectually satisfactory appropriate for their level of understanding even when the problems were difficult for middle school students. During the process of student discussion, a few problems were observed. Some problems were related to the technics of the discussion, such as inappropriate behavior for the role he/she was taking, mismatching answers to the questions. Some problems were related to thinking. For example, students thinking was off balanced toward deductive reasoning, and reasoning based on experimental data was weak. The last area of evaluation was the effect of the Contest. It was measured through the change of the attitude toward science and science classes, and willingness to attend the next Contest. According to the result of the questionnaire, no meaningful change in attitude was observed. However, through the interview several students were observed to have significant positive change in attitude while no student with negative change was observed. Most of the students participated in Contest said they would participate again or recommend their friend to participate. Most of the teachers agreed that the Contest should continue and they would recommend their colleagues or students to participate. As described above, the "Discussion Contest of Scientific Investigation", which was developed and tried as a new science contest, had positive response from participating students and teachers, and the audience. Two among the list of results especially demonstrated that the goal of the Contest, "active and cooperative science learning experience", was reached. One is the fact that students recognized the experience of cooperation, discussion, information search, variety of experiments to be fun and valuable. The other is the fact that the students recognized the format of the contest consisting of presentation, refutation, discussion and review, required more thinking and was challenging, but was more meaningful. Despite a few problems such as, unfamiliarity with the technics of discussion, weakness in inductive and/or experiment based reasoning, and difficulty in report writing, The Contest demonstrated the possibility of new science learning environment and science contest by offering the chance to challenge open tasks by utilizing student science knowledge and ability to inquire and to discuss rationally and critically with other students.

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A Study of Knowledge, Attitude, and Practice Relative to Maternal and Child Health Among Women Residing in Apartments at Yonsei Community Health Area (연세지역 아파트 주민의 모자보건에 관한 실태조사)

  • Yu, Seung-Hum;Chung, Young-Sook;Lee, Kyung-Ja;Kim, Kwang-Jong
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.77-87
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    • 1971
  • A study of the knowledge, attitude and practices about the maternal and child health of 305 married women residing in apartments at the Yonsei Community Health area was conducted during the period from November to December 1970 using designed questionnaire with well trained interviewers. The results and findings obtained from the study are summarized as follows: A. Pregnancy and Birth Questions were asked about their last child. 1. 16.4% of the women were pregnant. 2. Among 281 women who had experienced delivery, 48.0% were assisted by doctor or midwisves for their last delivery, while the rest of women delivered their last baby at home without any professional's assistance. The higher the level of education or the greater exposure to mass communication, the more the deliveries were assisted by doctors or midwives. Those women who were born and raised in cities had more deliveries assisted by doctors and midwives than those who were not. 3. Kinds of delivery sheets used. Among 141 cases of home delivery 68% used cement bag paper or vinyl sheets. Three% used nothing and remained used unsterile materials. 4. Among 141 cases of home delivery, 70.2% used scissors. The rest of them used other methods. 5. 47.3% of the women had a rest for one month or more after birth. The higher the level of education, the longer the period of rest was observed. 6. 52.4% of the women fed the colostrum to their babies. This was not related to the mother's education. 7 About half(42.9%) of the women had poor knowledge about a proper diet for the pre and post natal period. B. Child Health 1. Knowledge and practice regarding to the immunization for their children: Most of the women (93.2%) could name at least one kind of immunization. 20.3% could name 6 kinds of immunization. Mothers education level did not influence their ability to name immunizations. 85.2% of children had been immunized at least once. 2. Morbidity of last born children: 48.1% of their last born children were found to have been sick during the last year. Less than half(41.5%) of the sick children were seen by doctor. 3. Counselling at well baby clinic: Most of the women(76.5%) had no counselling for their children. Registration rate at the well baby clinic at the Severance Hospital was 13.2%. 45.9% wanted to visit to the well baby clinic at the Severance Hospital. 4. Weaning Period: 44.6% said that the beginning of the weaning for their last born children was from 6 months to twelve months of age. The most important reason of weaning was the health of both mothers and children. 5. Knowledge and Practice regarding birth and death Registration: 64.6% of the women could name correctly the Ku-office as the place for the registration. Only 29.2% registered the birth of their last born children within 14 days. C. Knowledge, Attitude and Practice regarding to family planning Most: of the women accepted the idea of family planning. 97.7% could name at least one contraceptive method. 35.4% were found to be current users of contraceptive methods. The ideal number of children was 3.1 in average.

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A Mobile Landmarks Guide : Outdoor Augmented Reality based on LOD and Contextual Device (모바일 랜드마크 가이드 : LOD와 문맥적 장치 기반의 실외 증강현실)

  • Zhao, Bi-Cheng;Rosli, Ahmad Nurzid;Jang, Chol-Hee;Lee, Kee-Sung;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.1-21
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, mobile phone has experienced an extremely fast evolution. It is equipped with high-quality color displays, high resolution cameras, and real-time accelerated 3D graphics. In addition, some other features are includes GPS sensor and Digital Compass, etc. This evolution advent significantly helps the application developers to use the power of smart-phones, to create a rich environment that offers a wide range of services and exciting possibilities. To date mobile AR in outdoor research there are many popular location-based AR services, such Layar and Wikitude. These systems have big limitation the AR contents hardly overlaid on the real target. Another research is context-based AR services using image recognition and tracking. The AR contents are precisely overlaid on the real target. But the real-time performance is restricted by the retrieval time and hardly implement in large scale area. In our work, we exploit to combine advantages of location-based AR with context-based AR. The system can easily find out surrounding landmarks first and then do the recognition and tracking with them. The proposed system mainly consists of two major parts-landmark browsing module and annotation module. In landmark browsing module, user can view an augmented virtual information (information media), such as text, picture and video on their smart-phone viewfinder, when they pointing out their smart-phone to a certain building or landmark. For this, landmark recognition technique is applied in this work. SURF point-based features are used in the matching process due to their robustness. To ensure the image retrieval and matching processes is fast enough for real time tracking, we exploit the contextual device (GPS and digital compass) information. This is necessary to select the nearest and pointed orientation landmarks from the database. The queried image is only matched with this selected data. Therefore, the speed for matching will be significantly increased. Secondly is the annotation module. Instead of viewing only the augmented information media, user can create virtual annotation based on linked data. Having to know a full knowledge about the landmark, are not necessary required. They can simply look for the appropriate topic by searching it with a keyword in linked data. With this, it helps the system to find out target URI in order to generate correct AR contents. On the other hand, in order to recognize target landmarks, images of selected building or landmark are captured from different angle and distance. This procedure looks like a similar processing of building a connection between the real building and the virtual information existed in the Linked Open Data. In our experiments, search range in the database is reduced by clustering images into groups according to their coordinates. A Grid-base clustering method and user location information are used to restrict the retrieval range. Comparing the existed research using cluster and GPS information the retrieval time is around 70~80ms. Experiment results show our approach the retrieval time reduces to around 18~20ms in average. Therefore the totally processing time is reduced from 490~540ms to 438~480ms. The performance improvement will be more obvious when the database growing. It demonstrates the proposed system is efficient and robust in many cases.

The Audience Behavior-based Emotion Prediction Model for Personalized Service (고객 맞춤형 서비스를 위한 관객 행동 기반 감정예측모형)

  • Ryoo, Eun Chung;Ahn, Hyunchul;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.73-85
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, in today's information society, the importance of the knowledge service using the information to creative value is getting higher day by day. In addition, depending on the development of IT technology, it is ease to collect and use information. Also, many companies actively use customer information to marketing in a variety of industries. Into the 21st century, companies have been actively using the culture arts to manage corporate image and marketing closely linked to their commercial interests. But, it is difficult that companies attract or maintain consumer's interest through their technology. For that reason, it is trend to perform cultural activities for tool of differentiation over many firms. Many firms used the customer's experience to new marketing strategy in order to effectively respond to competitive market. Accordingly, it is emerging rapidly that the necessity of personalized service to provide a new experience for people based on the personal profile information that contains the characteristics of the individual. Like this, personalized service using customer's individual profile information such as language, symbols, behavior, and emotions is very important today. Through this, we will be able to judge interaction between people and content and to maximize customer's experience and satisfaction. There are various relative works provide customer-centered service. Specially, emotion recognition research is emerging recently. Existing researches experienced emotion recognition using mostly bio-signal. Most of researches are voice and face studies that have great emotional changes. However, there are several difficulties to predict people's emotion caused by limitation of equipment and service environments. So, in this paper, we develop emotion prediction model based on vision-based interface to overcome existing limitations. Emotion recognition research based on people's gesture and posture has been processed by several researchers. This paper developed a model that recognizes people's emotional states through body gesture and posture using difference image method. And we found optimization validation model for four kinds of emotions' prediction. A proposed model purposed to automatically determine and predict 4 human emotions (Sadness, Surprise, Joy, and Disgust). To build up the model, event booth was installed in the KOCCA's lobby and we provided some proper stimulative movie to collect their body gesture and posture as the change of emotions. And then, we extracted body movements using difference image method. And we revised people data to build proposed model through neural network. The proposed model for emotion prediction used 3 type time-frame sets (20 frames, 30 frames, and 40 frames). And then, we adopted the model which has best performance compared with other models.' Before build three kinds of models, the entire 97 data set were divided into three data sets of learning, test, and validation set. The proposed model for emotion prediction was constructed using artificial neural network. In this paper, we used the back-propagation algorithm as a learning method, and set learning rate to 10%, momentum rate to 10%. The sigmoid function was used as the transform function. And we designed a three-layer perceptron neural network with one hidden layer and four output nodes. Based on the test data set, the learning for this research model was stopped when it reaches 50000 after reaching the minimum error in order to explore the point of learning. We finally processed each model's accuracy and found best model to predict each emotions. The result showed prediction accuracy 100% from sadness, and 96% from joy prediction in 20 frames set model. And 88% from surprise, and 98% from disgust in 30 frames set model. The findings of our research are expected to be useful to provide effective algorithm for personalized service in various industries such as advertisement, exhibition, performance, etc.

Treatment Results of Radical Radiotherapy in Uterine Cervix Cancer (자궁경부암 환자의 근치적 방사선치료성적)

  • Huh Seung Jae;Kim Bo Kyong;Lim Do Hoon;Shin Seong Soo;Lee Jeong Eun;Kang Min Kyu;Ahn Yong Chan
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.237-245
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : This study was conducted to evaluate the treatment results, prognostic factors, and complication rates after high dose rate (HDR) brachytherapy in patients with uterine cervix cancer who were treated with curative aim. Materials and Methods : Of 269 cervix cancer patients treated at the department of radiation oncology, Samsung Medical Center from September 1994 to July 1998, the 106 who were treated with radical radio-therapy were analyzed. The median age was 61 years (range 22 to 89). All patients except 4 with carcinoma in situ (CIS) were given external beam radiotherapy (range $30.6\~50.4\;Gy$ to whole pelvis) and HDR brachytherapy. The common regimens of HDR brachytherapy were a total dose of $24\~28\;Gy$ with $6\~7$ fractions to point A at two fractions per week. The median overall treatment time was 55 days (range 44 to 104) in patients given both external beam radiotherapy and HDR brachytherapy. Results : Early responses of radiotherapy were evaluated by gynecologic examination and follow-up MRI 1 month after radiotherapy. Treatment responses were complete remission in 72 patients, partial response in 33 and no response in 1. The overall survival (OS) rate of all patients was $82\%,\;and\;73\%$, and the disease free survival (DFS) rate was $72\%,\;and\;69\%$, at 3, and 5 years, respectively. The pelvic control rate (PCR) was $79\%$ at both 3 and 5 years. According to the FIGO stage,3 and 5 year OS were $100\%\;and\;50\%$ in CIS/IA, $100\%\;and\;100%$ in IB, $83\%\;and\;69\%$ in IIA, $87\%\;and\;80\%$ in IIB, and $62\%\;and\;62\%$ in III, respectively. The 3 year OS in 4 patients with stage IVA was $100\%$. Three-year DFS were $80\%$ in CIS/IA, $88\%$ in IB, $100\%$ in IIA, $64\%$ in IIB, $58\%$ in III, and $75\%$ in IVA. Three-year PCR were $100\%$ in CIS/IA, $94\%$ in IB, $100\%$ in IIA, $84\%$ in IIB, $69\%$ in III, and $50\%$ in IVA. By univariate analysis, FIGO stage and treatment response were significant factors for OS. The significant factors for DFS were age, FIGO stage, treatment response and overall treatment time (OTT). For pelvic control rate, treatment response and OTT were significant factors. By multivariate analysis, FIGO stage had a borderline significance for OS (p=0.0825) and treatment response had a borderline significance for DFS (0=0.0872). A total of 14 patients $(13\%)$ experienced rectal bleeding, which occurred from 3 to 44 months (median, 13 months) after the completion of radiotherapy. Conclusion : HDR brachytherapy protocol of Samsung Medical Center combined with properly optimal external beam pelvic irradiation is a safe and effective treatment for patients with uterine cervix cancer. The authors found that OTT of less than 55 days had a positive impact on pelvic control and survival rate.

Prevalence of Enteyobius vermiculuris infection and preventive effects of masts treatment among children in rural and urban areas, and children in orphanages (농촌, 도시 및 집단생활 아동의 요충 감염과 집단 구충에 의한 예방 효과)

  • Kim, Jong-Su;Lee, Hae-Yong;An, Yeong-Gyeom
    • Parasites, Hosts and Diseases
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    • v.29 no.3
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    • pp.235-244
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    • 1991
  • An epidemiological study and mass treatments of Enterobius vermicularis infection among children near Wonju area of Kangwon province were carried out. The children were divided into 4 groups according to their residing localities; children in the mountainous area, rural area, urban area and in orphanage. They were examined by adhesive cellotape anal swab technique, and egg positive rates were obtained. The rates of egg reduction and re-infection rates after repeated mass treatments were also observed. The results obtained were as follows: 1. The overall egg Positive rate of E. vermicularis in the first screening was 19.9% (251 out of 1, 262 examinees; 19.7% in males and 20.1% in females). The positive rates were 13.0% in the mountainous area, 11 9% in the rural area, 15.1% in the urban (medium-sized) area and 61.9% in orphanages. 2. The highest positive rates were observed in the kindergarten children, and 1st and 2nd grade children of primary schools (26.2~32.2%), and the lowest rate (13.6%) in 6-year grade children of primary schools. 3. Cumulative detection rates from 3 repeated anal swabs at 4~5 days interval were higher (70.8%) than those from single anal swabs (50.0~59.2%). 4. Out of the examinees who showed the highest cumulative positive rate (70.8%), about 39.2% were consecutively positive in 3 anal swabs. Among different groups of children, the higher the total egg detection rates (87.5%), the higher the consecutive positive rates (71.9%) . 5. A total of 2, 609 (male : female=1 : 12.4) worms were collected from 17 egg-positive cases treated with anthelinintics. The mean number of worms per child was 153 (range: 4-824) . 6. The egg-positive cases in several studied groups (180 children) were treated with anthelmintics 6 times at 3-week intervals. In this case, the overall positive rate was decreased from 54.8% to 2.2% at 15 weeks after the treatments, but no complete negative conversion was experienced. However, in a group of children (154 children) including egg Positive and negative cases who were both treated with anthelmintics at 3-week interval, a complete egg-negative conversion was observed in the 9th week after treatments. 7. The egg-detection rate in the brothers or sisters of egg Positive children was 70.0% (28 out of 40 examined), and the egg-positive rate according to the family unit was 69.7%. In summarizing the above results, it is concluded that Enterobius vermicularis infection is still highly prevalent among children in Korea, and that repeated mass treatments of more than 3 times will be effective for control of this infection.

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A Study of Guidelines for Genetic Counseling in Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) (착상전 유전진단을 위한 유전상담 현황과 지침개발을 위한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Jee;Lee, Hyoung-Song;Kang, Inn-Soo;Jeong, Seon-Yong;Kim, Hyon-J.
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), also known as embryo screening, is a pre-pregnancy technique used to identify genetic defects in embryos created through in vitro fertilization. PGD is considered a means of prenatal diagnosis of genetic abnormalities. PGD is used when one or both genetic parents has a known genetic abnormality; testing is performed on an embryo to determine if it also carries the genetic abnormality. The main advantage of PGD is the avoidance of selective pregnancy termination as it imparts a high likelihood that the baby will be free of the disease under consideration. The application of PGD to genetic practices, reproductive medicine, and genetic counseling is becoming the key component of fertility practice because of the need to develop a custom PGD design for each couple. Materials and Methods: In this study, a survey on the contents of genetic counseling in PGD was carried out via direct contact or e-mail with the patients and specialists who had experienced PGD during the three months from February to April 2010. Results: A total of 91 persons including 60 patients, 49 of whom had a chromosomal disorder and 11 of whom had a single gene disorder, and 31 PGD specialists responded to the survey. Analysis of the survey results revealed that all respondents were well aware of the importance of genetic counseling in all steps of PGD including planning, operation, and follow-up. The patient group responded that the possibility of unexpected results (51.7%), genetic risk assessment and recurrence risk (46.7%), the reproduction options (46.7%), the procedure and limitation of PGD (43.3%) and the information of PGD technology (35.0%) should be included as a genetic counseling information. In detail, 51.7% of patients wanted to be counseled for the possibility of unexpected results and the recurrence risk, while 46.7% wanted to know their reproduction options (46.7%). Approximately 96.7% of specialists replied that a non-M.D. genetic counselor is necessary for effective and systematic genetic counseling in PGD because it is difficult for physicians to offer satisfying information to patients due to lack of counseling time and specific knowledge of the disorders. Conclusions: The information from the survey provides important insight into the overall present situation of genetic counseling for PGD in Korea. The survey results demonstrated that there is a general awareness that genetic counseling is essential for PGD, suggesting that appropriate genetic counseling may play a important role in the success of PGD. The establishment of genetic counseling guidelines for PGD may contribute to better planning and management strategies for PGD.

'Yongyudam of Hamyang', the Significance and Value as a Traditional Scenic Place ('함양 용유담(咸陽 龍遊潭)', 전래명승으로서의 의의와 가치 구명)

  • Rho, Jae-hyun
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.82-101
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this study was to survey and analyze the origin story and the legends associated with Yongyudam(龍遊潭, Dragon Creek), its scenic and spatial description in Climbing Writings(遊山記: Yusangi Notes), its geographical and geological features, its surrounding remains and letters chiseled on the rocks through the field study and the study on literatures associated with it so to identify its significance and value and then to ensure justification on preservation of Yongyudam scenic site. Conclusions of this study are as follow. As the traditional scenic place 'Geumdae-Jiri(金臺智異)' representing Hamyang-gun(咸陽郡) depicts Mount Cheonwangbong and 'Yongyudong Village(龍遊洞)', ancient maps and literatures have positioned Yongyudam as the center of Eomcheon-river Creek as well as the representing scenic site of Yongyudong Village. Core images in the spatial awareness of Yongyudam described in our ancestors' Climbing Writings Notes on Jirisan Mount are 'geographical and scenic peculiarity associated with swimming dragons', 'potholes in various shapes and sizes scattered on rocks', 'loud sound generated by swirling from shoals' and 'the scenic metaphor from the dragon legend', which have led scenic features of Yongyudam scenic site. In addition, significant scenic metaphors from legends such as 'Nine Dragons and Ascetic Majeog' and 'Kasaya Fish' as well as 'the Holy Place of Dragon God', the rain calling magic god have descended not only as the very nature of Yongyudam scenic site but also the catalyst deepening its mystic and place nature. On the other hand, Jangguso Place(杖?所, Place of Scholars) in the vicinity of Yongyudam was the place of resting and amusement for scholars from Yeongnam Province, to name a few, Kim Il-son, Cho Sik, Jung Yeo-chang and Kang Dae-su, where they experienced and recognized Jirisan Mount as the scenic living place. Letters Carved on the rocks at Jangguso Place are memorial tributes and monumental signs. Around Yongyudam, there are 3 stairs, letters chiseled on the rocks and the water rock artificially built to collect clean water, which are traditional scenic remains detectable of territoriality as the ritual place. In addition, The letters on the rock at Yongyudong-mun(龍遊洞門) discovered for the first time by this study are the sign promoting Yongyudam as the place of splendid landscape. The laconism, 'It is the Greatest Water in Jirisan Mount(方丈第一山水)' on a rock expresses the pride of Yongyudam as the representing scenic place of Mount Jirisan. Other than those, standing rocks such as Simjindae Rock, Yeong-gwidae Rock and Ganghwadae Rock show the sign that they are used as amusement and gathering places for ancestor scholars, which add significance to Yongyudam. By this study, it was possible to verify that Yongyudam in Mount Jirisan is not simply 'the scenic place in the tangible reality' but also has seamlessly inherited as the traditional scenic attraction spiritualized by overlapped historical and cultural values. Yongyudam, as the combined heritage by itself, shows that it is the product of the place nature as well as unique ensemble of cultural scenic attraction inherited through long history based on natural scenery. It is certain that not only the place value but also geographical, geological, historical and cultural values of Yongyudam are the essence of traditional scenic attraction, which should not be disparaged or damaged by whatever political or economic interests and logics.

Development of New Variables Affecting Movie Success and Prediction of Weekly Box Office Using Them Based on Machine Learning (영화 흥행에 영향을 미치는 새로운 변수 개발과 이를 이용한 머신러닝 기반의 주간 박스오피스 예측)

  • Song, Junga;Choi, Keunho;Kim, Gunwoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.67-83
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    • 2018
  • The Korean film industry with significant increase every year exceeded the number of cumulative audiences of 200 million people in 2013 finally. However, starting from 2015 the Korean film industry entered a period of low growth and experienced a negative growth after all in 2016. To overcome such difficulty, stakeholders like production company, distribution company, multiplex have attempted to maximize the market returns using strategies of predicting change of market and of responding to such market change immediately. Since a film is classified as one of experiential products, it is not easy to predict a box office record and the initial number of audiences before the film is released. And also, the number of audiences fluctuates with a variety of factors after the film is released. So, the production company and distribution company try to be guaranteed the number of screens at the opining time of a newly released by multiplex chains. However, the multiplex chains tend to open the screening schedule during only a week and then determine the number of screening of the forthcoming week based on the box office record and the evaluation of audiences. Many previous researches have conducted to deal with the prediction of box office records of films. In the early stage, the researches attempted to identify factors affecting the box office record. And nowadays, many studies have tried to apply various analytic techniques to the factors identified previously in order to improve the accuracy of prediction and to explain the effect of each factor instead of identifying new factors affecting the box office record. However, most of previous researches have limitations in that they used the total number of audiences from the opening to the end as a target variable, and this makes it difficult to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to predict the weekly number of audiences of a newly released film so that the stakeholder can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film. To that end, we considered the factors used in the previous studies affecting box office and developed new factors not used in previous studies such as the order of opening of movies, dynamics of sales. Along with the comprehensive factors, we used the machine learning method such as Random Forest, Multi Layer Perception, Support Vector Machine, and Naive Bays, to predict the number of cumulative visitors from the first week after a film release to the third week. At the point of the first and the second week, we predicted the cumulative number of visitors of the forthcoming week for a released film. And at the point of the third week, we predict the total number of visitors of the film. In addition, we predicted the total number of cumulative visitors also at the point of the both first week and second week using the same factors. As a result, we found the accuracy of predicting the number of visitors at the forthcoming week was higher than that of predicting the total number of them in all of three weeks, and also the accuracy of the Random Forest was the highest among the machine learning methods we used. This study has implications in that this study 1) considered various factors comprehensively which affect the box office record and merely addressed by other previous researches such as the weekly rating of audiences after release, the weekly rank of the film after release, and the weekly sales share after release, and 2) tried to predict and respond to the demand of market which changes dynamically by suggesting models which predicts the weekly number of audiences of newly released films so that the stakeholders can flexibly and elastically respond to the change of the number of audiences in the film.

On the Influence Each Other Between the Monks in the Buddhist Temples and the Society in Towns or Villages (중국(中國) 지방사회(地方社會)와 불교사원(佛敎寺院) 그리고 승인(僧人)의 상호(相互) 영향(影響)에 관한 일고(一考))

  • Yan, Yao zhong
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.60-79
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    • 2012
  • Environment of ancient Chinese Buddhist temple can be classified to three types such as regional society(鄕村), famous mountain(名山), and urban areas(都市). This made differences in environment where a temple existed and in turn, affected development of Buddhism. And this made another type in relationship between Buddhist temple and a society. This study explains influences which regional society gave on not only Buddhist temple and a monk but also existence and development of Buddhism. When temples are placed in different environmental position, that is, urban areas and regional society, among a social structure, they eventually should adapt to a different society externally and internally. As told in above, ancient Chinese Buddhist temple was located in regional society, famous mountain, and urban areas. Since Eastern Jin and Sixteen Kingdoms, as number of temple much increased, and temples and monks were concentrated on famous mountain, temples in famous mountains and urban areas had developed showing similar aspects each other. But because temples in regional society were influenced a little differently, this study focused on the point. There are four kinds of influences between temples and monks in regional areas. Monks in regional areas had a comparatively close relationship with a society because they came from same area or surrounding areas. Therefore,powers of regional areas restrict influences made by monk group in temple. Second, temples in regional areas shared their joys and sorrows depending on regional economy. Temples in regional areas became a public place for the society and often a market place. In fact, construction and existence of a temple originally became a driving force in regional economy. This is because construction of temple needs artisans and materials and some temples had visitors and included market economy like consumption of incense and candles, though the economic size was large or small. And when regional areas experienced natural disaster or man-made disaster or had poor harvest or economy was in depression, monks left temples and then, temples themselves could not exist. Third, the relationship between temples in regional areas and Buddhists was distinguished from the temples in urban areas and famous mountains. This is because temples in China were places where monks practiced and at the same time, places where general Buddhists worshipped. So there were always a number of Buddhists around the temples. Forth, Buddhism in resional areas was connected to regional Folk beliefs. As a result, Buddhism was spread across the nation, worship with local color often was changed to Buddhist belief or was tinged with Buddhism. While temples in regional areas maintained a close relationship with regional society.they were influenced by the region or gave influences. As a representative example, temples in regional areas showed model behaviors instead of roles of facilities related to various cultures with comparatively advanced level - for example, school, hospital etc. The temples highly affected funerary rites in regional areas. Chinese tombs were mainlymade in regional areas. After death,people living in urban areas were buried in hometown or at least, they were buried in suburbs not urban areas. Temples in regional areas generally participated in funerary rites. Above shows that though most of famous Buddhist temples were located in urban areas not in famous mountains,majority of temples were located in vast regional areas. Through mutual interaction between temples and regional society, the temples in the regional areas were related to Chinese people of over 90% and regional areas became the most important foundation for Buddhism in China. Mutual influences between temples in regional areas and the general public in regions were omnidirectional and spreaded to every aspects of social life in small or large degree. Thus Tombs in temple were widely spreaded across regional areas over time and space. This is enough to explain a close relationship between Buddhist temples and rural society in ancient China.